Just re-read this part. Sure, Cahill's 2010 season was worth 3.7 bWAR, which is much more than Parker has in 2012 so far (2.1 bWAR).

Fair enough. I sort of meant performance level in terms of rate value rather than accumulation, but the point stands. Interesting to see if Parker can maintain what he's done so far.

But your analysis in [43] is quite reasonable, and insightful in a way I hadn't thought of. So, thanks.

EDIT:

the REAL risk is with Cahill, who is guaranteed 29 million over 4 years and has over 700 MLB innings on his arm at very young age. If Parker got hurt again, you are only looking at league minimum.

And 700 MLB innings at <6 K/9 and >3 BB/9.

While I'm bagging on the Cahill trade, I would be remiss not to throw up this little comparison. Towers probably saw this before he made the trade ;)

From ages 21-24. Other than the Homeruns, pretty damn close. Maddux didn't get his K/BB ratio higher than 3 until his age 25 season. He didn't become a K/BB God until age 27. Although I doubt that Cahill will ever have that kind of command in the future, OR that kind of durability, you never know. If nothing else, it's just interesting to see how they line up so closely in the rate stats, and by the end of the year, Cahill will be close to 800 IP

Towers has been trying to trade Upton since he took over the job.

Doesn't this imply that it isn't a "Towers must know something no one else does and/or dislike him personally" thing?

Yes and no.

Towers has seen Upton play up close for a long time. Padres and D Backs face off a lot of course. So he had plenty of time to form an opinion during that time.

Very shortly after taking over as GM during the offseason between 2010-2011 he shopped Upton, but they couldn't get a "homerun" deal. Of course Upton almost had an MVP caliber season last year, so it quieted the urge to trade him....but as soon as he started slumping this year, management started in on him again.

You tell me whats going on. I honestly don't get it.

slept with mrs towers??

Pittsburgh would be a perfect fit for Upton, like THE perfect fit in the majors

I don't know about "perfect." PNC is tough on righty power hitters, Andrew McCutchen excepted.

I honestly don't get it.

Me neither.

Pittsburgh would be a perfect fit for Upton, like THE perfect fit in the majors, seeing as that Clint Barmes is Pittsburgh's starting shortstop, and that I could've sworn before this season that he died carrying groceries up the stairs.

I guess Upton could play shortstop. I'd play him there just to be part of the ultimate odd couple with beefy scraggle-bearded hillbilly (albeit hillbilly from Santa Cruz, California) Casey McGehee.

Crispix (or anyone else that wants to chime in): Would you trade Gerrit Cole for Justin Upton, straight up?

Oh, I don't know anything about prospects. Having left Pittsburgh 2 years ago I have reverted to only following the Phillies.

That's interesting; I also left western Pennsylvania 2 years ago and now reside in eastern Pennsylvania.

But you know, Gerrit Cole, #1 pick last year, #1 prospect in their system. He's in Altoona now.

I have nothing against Oakland - I love northern California, but the Athletics have no money, has a horrible stadium and is expensive to live at. KC is another bad organization with limited money. Would you rather be in a place like KC, St. Louis or Atlanta with constant oppressive heat and humidity or somewhere like Cleveland, Chicago or Minnesota where you get a snow storm here and there.

BTW I agree that Upton needs a change of scenery he is killing my fantasy team.

Wel the reason would be not getting him.

But the issue is that if the cost of getting him is a king's ransom, then he's no bargain. Let your competitor overspend for him.

I don't actually think all 29 teams would seriously pursue Upton. I think there's enough uncertainty surrounding his half-year performance to keep a significant number of risk-averse teams out of the bidding. But I also think respectable offers like Harvey's proposed #35 (Hart & Gallardo) will be out there from at least half-a-dozen serious teams and that should be enough to churn up something worthwhile for Arizona during negotiations with the various interested teams - you throw in a couple of B-grade prospects, Arizona chips in a spare part, it won't be the Von Hayes trade but there's no reason Tower shouldn't be able to get market value back for Upton, regardless of the fact that everyone and their mother's basement knows Tower is shopping him.

there's no reason Tower shouldn't be able to get market value back for Upton, regardless of the fact that everyone and their mother's basement knows Tower is shopping him.

Towers might get it, but there's very good reason why he shouldn't be able to get market value back for Upton, namely the fact that everyone and their mother's basement knows Towers is shopping him.

I'm not sure why that would matter so much - if someone is going to get Upton, why not "you" if you think Upton's true talent level is 2011 and not 2012? He's signed on a reasonable deal though 2015 and should be enticing to even the poormouth welfare teams under those terms, if (IF!) they think he's still the same player he was in 2011. I dunno, I think Harvey's proposal in #35 is the sort of realistic offer Arizona should expect to receive from at least a few teams, and that's a nice starting point for a negotiation even if all the involved teams know for certain that Tower will accept one of their final offers.

#12 - that video is one of my favorite Internet discoveries. Thanks for the reminder.

I'm not sure why that would matter so much

Because it always does. Things always start with "OMG, this amazing player might be available, they'll get a fortune for him." They almost always eventually turn into Carlos Gomez. The DBacks/Towers are very close to the point where Upton "has to go." You never get value in that situation, especially given he's having a lousy season. How many times do we end up saying "why didn't team X offer a better deal?"

Trust me as a man who has moved internationally twice in seven years -- you give people very good bargains just because you've got to get the stuff off your plate.

HW's offer is a good one IF the DBacks expect to compete immediately. (Well, I haven't looked at contracts yet, I'm just talking talent.) It's a lousy one if they are looking for emerging talent.

I'm not sure why that would matter so much - if someone is going to get Upton, why not "you" if you think Upton's true talent level is 2011 and not 2012? He's signed on a reasonable deal though 2015 and should be enticing to even the poormouth welfare teams under those terms, if (IF!) they think he's still the same player he was in 2011. I dunno, I think Harvey's proposal in #35 is the sort of realistic offer Arizona should expect to receive from at least a few teams, and that's a nice starting point for a negotiation even if all the involved teams know for certain that Tower will accept one of their final offers.

Yeah, like Walt says above, it just always ends up that you get two quarters on the dollar for trades like these. There's going to be a deal at the deadline and it's going to suck for Arizona.

I'm not sure why that would matter so much

Yeah, I mean ... really?

Because it always does. Things always start with "OMG, this amazing player might be available, they'll get a fortune for him." They almost always eventually turn into Carlos Gomez.

I don't think you're making a direct comparison here between Upton and the rumored Johan Santana trades but don't you think Minnesota could have gotten more back than Carlos Gomez if Santana was signed to a team-friendly deal for the next 4 seasons, instead of a pending free agent necessitating $100 million+ to stay past the current season? If you believe in Upton's talent, his age and contract status are huge incentives to make a deal. This isn't Jason Werth money.

I mean, I understand from general negotiating principles how Tower's leverage might be theoretically compromised by his need to sell off an asset, but if that asset is perceived to have high value and several bidders are seriously involved I don't see why he has to settle for anything less than a great return (not that I know what he'd consider a great return). Personally I'd be very wary of offering anything too painful for Upton but that's because I'm not as confident as some people in his likelihood of repeating 2011 going forward. If you honestly think Upton's a good bet to perform at that level going forward, why would you shortchange your organization and allow a competitor to get him at a price that doesn't reflect that confidence? Tower *wants* to move Upton but as far as I know this isn't an "Alex Rodriguez-in-Texas" situation where there are major financial considerations creating urgency. Upton is signed long-term, Tower can try again in the offseason. Hell, not being traded might prompt Upton to try and finish strong to dispel any concerns about his performance thus far.

Upton is hurt, whether shoulder or thumb, because the only thing that has changed is his sudden lack of power, still gets on base, runs them well, covers the outfield, etc. I doubt it's permanent.

Gomez is just the meme, they probably will get back more than that (which is not saying much). But ...

1. Towers should be in no hurry ... yet he seems to be.
2. Towers should play teams off against one another, driving the price up. This takes time and see #1.

The LONGER this festers, the worse the price gets. I understand what you're saying but it won't work that way. You're describing a rational economic process with a long timeframe and isolated from other pressures. I'm talking about a psychological and social process. Apparently, some in the DBacks FO aren't happy with Upton for some reason and it doesn't matter if it's justified. This creates media speculation which only builds. Inaction starts to look like weakness. The manager and players will reach a point where they just want things resolved one way or the other so they can move on. Ownership will point out that Towers came to them saying this guy had to go but he's still around. In general, you just don't want folks hanging in lame-duck limbo for that long.

Countering that, the deadline might help Towers. He can play a bit of "You give me what I want and you can have him for the stretch drive. If not, I wait until the offseason and shop him to everybody in which case you're competing against everybody not just a few other competitors." In other words, the other GM is also under time/media/fan/owner pressure to get something done.

I'll grant you the mystery in this process is why the other teams "play along" by not making better but still "unfair" offers for Upton. 'Tis a mystery. Maybe it's the fear that the DBacks concerns are legit (i.e. they too value him less than we think they should). Maybe they just don't have the right combo of players without giving up something significant.

Now this is about to get a bit complicated. I don't consider Upton to be a superstar now although he's obviously still young enough to become one. He was damn, damn good last year ... and quite average the year before ... and good but not damn, damn good the year before ... and he's average this year. His contract is a bargain one but, barring a late season rebound (reasonably likely), he's going to end up around 9 WAR over the last 3 seasons (or 13 over 4). That's not amazing production.

But, yes, let's assume that there are at least 2 GMs out there that think his true talent for the next 3 years is around a 5 WAR player. There aren't going to be a lot of good comps and most of them will be pitchers. Here are the closes position player ones I could think of.

Nick Swisher -- not too bad. He's not as good or promising as Upton but a good player on a good contract who was on the outs in Chicago. The Sox got Wilson Betemit (which wouldn't have been too bad if they'd held onto him). Swisher to the Sox was good return (esp if you believed in de los Santos) and worked out well when Gio Gonzalez hit. The Sox overpaid but this may give some indication of how much value drops when the player is having a bad season and "must" be traded.

Teixeira to the Braves -- reasonably close in talent/production but hadn't worn out his welcome in Texas that I recall. Good return which has turned out great as those prospects turned out.

Granderson to the Yanks -- what a fun trade this has turned out to be as everybody wins now that Jackson has had his breakout season (unless he breaks back in). Granderson seemed popular in Detroit and it's hard to isolate the "Granderson" portion of this trade.

Cabrera to the Tigers -- icky icky poo poo. I don't think his contract at the time was particularly friendly but Maybin is the best player they got and he's not in Miami anymore.

Gonzalez to the Red Sox -- just one year but a great bargain ... and he was probably the most popular player on the team. Still not great return although a number of folks thought highly of some of the prospects at the time.

That's all I can think of for position players. The closest comps I think are Swisher to the Yanks and Cabrera where the teams felt they "had" to move the player. Can you explain how Swisher goes from two legit prospects and an average guy (Sweeney) to Wilson Betemit in one crappy season? Can you explain how one of the top 5 hitters in the game brings back toolsy goofs (OK, money probably had something to do with that one)?

It's certainly possible the DBacks will get back a young Elvis Andrus. I doubt they'll get back substantially more than that.

That's all I can think of for position players. The closest comps I think are Swisher to the Yanks and Cabrera where the teams felt they "had" to move the player. Can you explain how Swisher goes from two legit prospects and an average guy (Sweeney) to Wilson Betemit in one crappy season? Can you explain how one of the top 5 hitters in the game brings back toolsy goofs (OK, money probably had something to do with that one)?

In Swisher's case, he was traded by Billy Beane first, and by Ken Williams second.

In Cabrera's case, I think you may be underestimating what a lot of people thought of Andrew Miller at the time. He seems to have turned into a good reliever, but at the time, I think a lot of people thought he was another Randy Johnson, and that with a bit of patience, he'd find a delivery that worked at his size and develop good command.

Walt, in another discussion I told a friend that I felt the baseline for Upton was 9 WAR over the next 3 seasons which would allow him to "earn" his contract, or break even on it, and that he was good bet to do that. In addition I feel that there is about a 25% chance he would have 1 or 2 top quality seasons in the next 3 season, pushing his 3 year WAR value into the low teens, essentially blowing the contract value away.

Based on that opinion, I think D Backs would need to get back an Andrus PLUS a major league ready prospect that has at least a 25% chance to be worth 3-5 WAR over the next 3 seasons in order to make it an even or fair deal.

In other words you have to get the same "actual" value, PLUS the same potential upside. The potential upside above what the "actual projection value" has to be accounted for somehow.

It seems so hard to do, and if you can't, you are just better off not doing it at all. I don't know if the fences can be mended. But it seems like fence mending would actually be easier.

EDIT: Of course...as usual, it all comes back to following the money. D Backs are looking to save money. Upton will make 24 million the next two years. Andrus, for example, makes just a little north of 12. So the Rangers wouldn't give anything more than Andrus because of the dollar discrepancy. And I don't think the D Backs would necessarily turn around and take the 12 million savings to invest in other assets. They stretched their budget this year thinking they were going to contend, and they are not contending. The owner wants his money back. Their 80 million payroll probably goes back to 75. (They have other raises kicking in next year of course)

Based on that opinion, I think D Backs would need to get back an Andrus PLUS a major league ready prospect that has at least a 25% chance to be worth 3-5 WAR over the next 3 seasons in order to make it an even or fair deal.

Really? I don't think the Rangers would trade Andrus straight up for Upton, even without salary issues coming into play. Andrus is a similar level player in WAR, and a bit younger.

If you are referring just to the caliber of player, then I think someone a bit less than Andrus is probably about right. In terms of the actual player himself - no way - the Rangers don't have another shortstop, probably aren't interested in rushing Profar, and do have four major league quality outfielders.

The location that would make most sense to me would be Miami. The Marlins have three major league shortstops, Bonifacio, Reyes and Ramirez, one of who is playing 3B and one of whom is playing the outfield right now. Finding the right total packages in terms of talent and salaries might be complicated, but I think if the move happens this year, that's the one that makes sense.

Andrus is a similar level player in WAR

2012 to date: Andrus 1.6, Upton 1.1
Last 2 Years: Andrus 5.6, Utpon 6.8
Last 3 Years: Andrus 6.5, Upton 8.2
Last 4 Years: Andrus 9.8, Upton 12.0

Yes, I guess similar over the last two years, although the gap is bigger if you look at last 3 and last 4. OTOH, as you point out, Andrus is a year younger. And Cheaper.

The above comparison is BB-Ref WAR. Fangraph WAR tells a slightly different story for this year and the last 2 years, as UZR likes Andrus' defense a lot more than DRS from BIS:

2012 to date: Andrus 2.8, Upton 1.5
Last 2 years: Andrus 7.3, Upton 7.9
Last 3 years: Andrus 9.5, Upton 10.9
Last 4 years: Andrus 12.9, Upton 15.7

I'd say you have a valid point if you focus on the last 2 or even 3 years, they are similar.

Really? I don't think the Rangers would trade Andrus straight up for Upton, even without salary issues coming into play. Andrus is a similar level player in WAR, and a bit younger.

But in front of Jurickson Profar.

Ugh, if the Rangers traded for Upton that would be an embarrassment of riches in Arlington. They even have young pitching to spare.

But in front of Jurickson Profar.

Sure, they'll trade Andrus eventually. They may want to see Profar prove himself at AAA first, though, and they probably won't trade Andrus for an outfielder - a starting pitcher would be more valuable to them, and Andrus could certainly fetch a decent starter. They might also try to trade Kinsler before his value runs out, and move either Andrus or Profar to 2B.

They might also try to trade Kinsler before his value runs out, and move either Andrus or Profar to 2B.

They just signed Kinsler to a big extension in April. It's still possible they trade him, but I really doubt it. If they really believe in Profar, I think either Andrus goes or one of Kinsler or Profar shift to CF.

Do people really make decisions about where to play based on weather? I mean, its hot here in KC, but we have this thing called air conditioning. I know ballplayers have to play outside, but its only half their games in KC, and for only a few months. I'd guess there are no more than 30-40 uncomfortable games per year.

The knock on Texas was that it was unbearably hot to play there (so much that the Astros built the first indoor stadium!) but they don't really have problems signing FA.

And I don't know why you'd factor winter weather - most ballplayers live in Florida or Arizona in the offseason.

I'd guess there are no more than 30-40 uncomfortable games per year.

You mean almost half of their home games?

The knock on Texas was that it was unbearably hot to play there (so much that the Astros built the first indoor stadium!) but they don't really have problems signing FA.

Whether true or not, there's a reputation that the Texas heat drains players, to the extent that a lot of the Rangers don't play well at the end of the season because they're too worn out. Whether it's actually true almost doesn't matter if players believe it.

Gonzalez to the Red Sox -- just one year but a great bargain ... and he was probably the most popular player on the team. Still not great return although a number of folks thought highly of some of the prospects at the time.

A number of folks still seem to be pretty excited about Rizzo.

Whether true or not, there's a reputation that the Texas heat drains players, to the extent that a lot of the Rangers don't play well at the end of the season because they're too worn out. Whether it's actually true almost doesn't matter if players believe it.

I'd guess the back-to-back pennants has dispelled that somewhat, and in any case, it hasn't seemed to hurt Texas's ability to land FAs.

Rumors are now Stephen Drew is on the trading block too, so maybe Arizona is in full sell mode. They are a very weird franchise, seeming to go from buyers to sellers back to buyers at a moment's notice. I don't believe in the "windows" theory, but it seems like they should kinda commit to one or the other and shoot for a championship one of these years.

Things always start with "OMG, this amazing player might be available, they'll get a fortune for him." They almost always eventually turn into Carlos Gomez. The DBacks/Towers are very close to the point where Upton "has to go." You never get value in that situation, especially given he's having a lousy season. How many times do we end up saying "why didn't team X offer a better deal?"

The one time I can remember when a player was traded due to personality issues and it turned out wonderfully for the trading team was the Cardinals trading Garry Templeton (and Sixto Lezcano and other stuff) for Ozzie Smith (and other stuff). Nobody in St Louis at that time thought Smith was a better player than Templeton, but most were happy to be rid of Templeton anyway.

shoewizard, what would be the best realistic outcome you could see for Arizona? Trade for Chase Headley? Towers and Upton kiss and make up? Towers is fired?

The one time I can remember when a player was traded due to personality issues and it turned out wonderfully for the trading team was the Cardinals trading Garry Templeton (and Sixto Lezcano and other stuff) for Ozzie Smith

I don't know if it factored in the trade, but wasn't Delmon Young considered a bit of a headcase when the Rays dealt him for Matt Garza?

Milton Bradley was dealt in separate deals for Franklin Gutierrez and Andre Ethier, although I don't recall if Cleveland and LA were dealing him to get rid of him, or because his contract was up.*

*-interesting I just looked up his trade history and he was twice traded for Andrew Brown. That's kinda weird. The only other pair of players I can think of that were traded for each other twice are Rickey Henderson and Eric Plunk.

My guess is that climate is very low on factors where free agents, and in this case, preferable trade destinations. For 99% of players its going to be some combination of money, contract length, chances of contention and family.

Its not like players are digging ditches eight hours a day, but I can imagine some players would rather not spend five or six hours (games plus BP, warmups, etc.) a day in oppressive heat and humidity.

ag1

drew's animosity with the front office is pretty well known. he is definitely leaving after the season.

i doubt texas wants to mess with a winning formula/clubhouse though it would be a bold move

Drew would be a great fit on a lot of teams, if he can play. It's likely the Pirates reference upthread had confused Upton with Drew. All of his older brother's old haunts would be great destinations for Stephen in addition to probably half a dozen other spots.

shoewizard, what would be the best realistic outcome you could see for Arizona? Trade for Chase Headley? Towers and Upton kiss and make up? Towers is fired?

The problem is that dislike of Upton apparently travels all the way up to ownership. It wasn't Towers that set this chain of events in motion after all. At least not publicly.

shoewizard, what would be the best realistic outcome you could see for Arizona? Trade for Chase Headley? Towers and Upton kiss and make up? Towers is fired?

Most likely none of the above. I don't see arch enemies SD and AZ being able to pull off a blockbuster type deal involving Upton and Headley. And while I am still hopeful that a second half surge by Upton and the team in general might change the atmosphere, the odds seem low. And Towers is very well liked and respected by the ownership and upper management and is definitely not going to be fired. So none of the outcomes you presented seem very likely to me.

The problem is that dislike of Upton apparently travels all the way up to ownership. It wasn't Towers that set this chain of events in motion after all. At least not publicly.

My guess is that Kendrick was in part influenced by internal discussions combined with his own frustrations as a "fan" and just couldn't contain himself when on air. I can definitely see a few head slap moments for KT and the rest of the organization when they heard/read about Kendricks comments. I seriously doubt he was handed pre approved talking points from the PR dept and the Baseball OPS dept before he went on the radio.

Most likely none of the above. I don't see arch enemies SD and AZ being able to pull off a blockbuster type deal involving Upton and Headley. And while I am still hopeful that a second half surge by Upton and the team in general might change the atmosphere, the odds seem low. And Towers is very well liked and respected by the ownership and upper management and is definitely not going to be fired. So none of the outcomes you presented seem very likely to me.

Then what is the best ending you can hope for?

Well, the best ending I "Hope" for is Upton snaps out of it, goes on a power surge, and puts all this to bed. But hope is dwindling.

What I EXPECT to happen is they will fail to be able to pull of a trade by the deadline...the team continues to fall out of the race, and some time after the trade deadline it finally comes out that Upton is hurt and needs to be shut down. (Either thumb or shoulder).

This will in turn further erode his trade value, but the team will still move him over the off season for a mediocre return. Following which in one of the next 3 seasons, Upton will put up an MVP caliber season. Thats what I EXPECT to happen.

Alex Anthopolous is offering Yunel Escobar and two minor leaguers on line 1 . . .

Walt, in another discussion I told a friend that I felt the baseline for Upton was 9 WAR over the next 3 seasons which would allow him to "earn" his contract, or break even on it, and that he was good bet to do that. In addition I feel that there is about a 25% chance he would have 1 or 2 top quality seasons in the next 3 season, pushing his 3 year WAR value into the low teens, essentially blowing the contract value away.

I generally agree, especially after you raised the money issue. I think it's unlikely the DBacks would get back equal value and I don't know why they'd be looking to trade Upton anyway.

I'd forgotten Rizzo was part of the Gonzalez trade. Certainly makes that look better as Rizzo is one of the 50 greatest players ever.

My guess is that the Diamondbacks hang around the fringes of the NL West race, and Upton stays on the roster. If he is traded, it will only be for a significant package (Profar/Olt/MPerez types). Hopefully Upton's power comes back this year, the team starts playing better, and all the trade talk disappears.

Yeah, I don't think they are likely to get an offer that will really entice them before the deadline.

What I EXPECT to happen is they will fail to be able to pull of a trade by the deadline...the team continues to fall out of the race, and some time after the trade deadline it finally comes out that Upton is hurt and needs to be shut down. (Either thumb or shoulder).

This will in turn further erode his trade value, but the team will still move him over the off season for a mediocre return. Following which in one of the next 3 seasons, Upton will put up an MVP caliber season. Thats what I EXPECT to happen.

This really sucks

On the other hand, a poster at DBBP just listened to President and CEO Derrick Hall on KTAR radio, and paraphrased the interview like this:

LINKY

Heard DH on KTAR about an hour ago doing his best to dispel the rumors. Two things that stuck with me:

1. He was very emphatic about the fact that Justin is NOT a problem in the club house or on the field and reiterated that they are not shopping him. Said what we have heard before, that like any other player, they would entertain any offer that blew them away. He mentioned a few times that Justin is a great kid (I think he even said he had a good attitude, but I'm not positive) and that anyone that says there must be something "wrong" with Justin because of these rumors is absolutely misinformed.

2. He said that any trade they make for Upton would have to make them BETTER this year, at the MLB level. This could be a good or a bad thing. If they think they get better this year by trading him for a "proven vet" journeyman with "spark and clubhouse presence," etc., that's about the worst of all possibilities. If he means they would have to get a current star player in return and basically make it a "buying" move rather than a "selling" move, that is still not a good decision but the good side is that that scenario is extremely unlikely.

Anyone who also heard the Doug and Wolf interview, please correct or add to my account.

My interpretation is they haven't gotten any decent offers.