2012 will suck, but I take solace knowing Ned will be fired as the new owner's first checkbox on the to-do list.

Can we get a Ted Lilly projection please? He appears in the career projections but nowhere else. I want to see if ZiPS thinks that my favourite presidential pitcher has a shot at a better year than 2011.

More reason to non-tender Loney.

Who the hell is Kenley Jansen? Jiminy! And his middle name is Geronimo.

That's a pathetic offense. The notion that a team would miss Rod Barajas* had never occurred to me before.

*Not a shot at Barajas who has been perfectly OK for his career, just fungible.

Lilly's career projection is very close to what he's put up so far. Looks like ZiPS either calls for a very good year or two before the end or a VERY gradual fade over his final 130 starts.

Lilly's in there now - ZiPS has Lilly going 56-61 with an ERA+ of 90 the rest of the way (which brings his current 107 down to 101).

Clayton ############# Kershaw!

Dan what do you mean Treanor was never any good? His top comp is a Hall of Famer!

And Vida Blue and Rod Scurry as top comps! You're predicting prison for Kershaw and worse Kuo?

Thanks for adding Lilly in there, but I think the Ks are off (70 in 166.7 IP)

I really hate Ned Colletti.

Oops, tha was Garland's HR/BB/K.

The career projection has Lilly at 174-161, he's 125-110 right now. Maybe I'm wrong but I'm getting 49-51 instead of 56-61.

Dan, could you post a projection for Shawn Tolleson? Like Steve Ames, he really dominated hi-A and AA (and low-A), and he should get a shot at some point next season.

Thanks.

How exactly does ZiPs figure that Mike Parisi has an 8% chance of being a "top" pitcher this year?

Since this is a nitpicky comment, I feel the need to preface it with this: awesome work as always, Dan.

I'm wondering, though, are ZiPs' predictions for Runs glitching this season? I ask because there's a guy with a .297 projected OBP and 4 steals (i.e., not likely a great baserunner) projected to score 100 runs in ~600 AB's. Last year's Dodgers had exactly 1 guy score more than 67 runs, and the guy with 67 had a .368 OBP in 487 AB's (Ethier). I noticed Liddi (.292 projected OBP) projected to score 110 in the Mariners ZiPs and assumed it was a typo that would get fixed in the final release, but after seeing Songco's projection here I thought I'd ask. If there's been discussion of this in previous threads and I'm just behind, I apologize. Just trying to do my part to keep ZiPs the best projection system out there!

Darryl Kile AND Matt Clement? Here's hoping Billingsley is paid up on his health and life insurance...

I'll double-check the runs with an older build. Those do look high.

Maybe I'm wrong but I'm getting 49-51 instead of 56-61.

You are correct, was looking at a different thing.

How exactly does ZiPs figure that Mike Parisi has an 8% chance of being a "top" pitcher this year?

Given only 7 starts, he has a good chance to pitch with an ERA+ > approximately 110 over those starts.

Kemp's BA looks awful low.
From the outside looking in, it looks like 2010 is getting weighted too heavily. But of course you don't change the weights for any one player. Up through and including 2010 he had a .285 career BA. His .324 last year brought his career avg up to .294. He's heading into his age 28 season and still running well.

I am sure ZIPS is taking into account many factors regarding balls in play type, BABIP on those balls in play, etc. His BABIP on GB was .316, career .294, and he actually had a higher GB BABIP in 2008. His FB BABIP was .174, and thats right in line with his .179 career avg and well below his career high in 2009. His LD BABIP is the one that looks a little out of whack....809 vs .739 for career...but there are a lot less LD of course, 90-100 per year, so we are only talking about 3-4 hits there. I guess if you whack off a few homers too, than you might get the avg under .285....

It just seems for a guy that hits the ball that hard all the time, and has a career .352 BABIP, the B.A. is over regressed by ZIPS.

In short...I'll take the over.

OTOH....you have him about a .332 BABIP above, vs his career .352. 7 Hits difference, which if you gave back to him puts him at .292 vs. the .280 you project. The only time Kemp has had a BABIP lower than .345 was 2010. But .332 is not an unreasonable BABIP conclusion either.

Still....just doesn't look right.

TOLLESON!!!

I'll double-check the runs with an older build. Those do look high.

Yeah, there were some wrong R/RBI totals for scattered PCL/CAL league players. They're corrected here (and final spreadsheet) and will be correct here on out. Many thanks for the catch!

Before looking at the numbers, I would have sworn that Chad Billingsley would project to a noticeably better career than Ted Lilly.

Thats a fairly unique career projection for Kershaw

Similar Innings, ERA+, Left Handers

Only two guys, Newhouser and Waddell

Ned Colletti is the new 2000-era Brian Sabean. Take one (or, well, in this case, two) great player(s) and fill out the rest of the team with old crap.

Having grown up in the 80s, I like how Tony Gwynn, Jerry Hairston and Ivan DeJesus appear in order in the projections.