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tripon, you better stay in touch. pretty soon the only way we'll be able to afford going to a game is my freebies.
I still can't wrap my head around the money being thrown around here. The simple AAV of the deal is about $375M if the rumored numbers are accurate. I don't want to do exact calculations, but let's say the US has 4% annual inflation over the life of the deal (high, but perhaps plausible). Then $1 now will be the equivalent of $2.19 in 20 years. We can get a ballpark estimate of the current-dollar value of the deal by finding a Year 1 value that, when inflation is computed, averages out with the Year 20 value to equal the AAV. It turns out that with the 4% inflation estimate, $240M in Year 1 will be the equivalent of $526M in Year 20, which averages out to $383M, close enough for our purposes. So Time Warner is conservatively paying the 2013 equivalent of about $235M-$240M annually, which is absolutely nuts. And a (probably) more accurate estimate of 3% inflation would make the 2013-equivalent AAV about $270M. How many people are going to watch the Dodgers on TV on even a semi-regular basis? Are non-TV outlets (like streaming) going to make a substantial difference? Even in a media market as big as LA, I just don't see how this kind of money makes sense
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