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1. Graham posted on March 09, 2012 at 12:41 PM # hit 0 | hit 0Over the past three years, Tulo has averaged a line of 0.304/0.376/0.554, with 30 HR, and has been in the NL Top 10 for OPS in all three years. It seems like a very reasonable pick to me, when you add the dozen or so steals that he also adds.
Note: This is not me saying that Tulo is a Top 6 player in baseball, but only that his set of skills make him a defensible Top 6 fantasy pick.
Hmmm for me it was Granderson that stuck out as someone I would definitely not draft ahead of Joey Bats.
Oh, 10's not that bad. 12 is better, of course, but 10 is perfectly cromulent.
edit: or what he said
It really does turn fantasy into a crapshoot - I've been ######## for years because my long-time (we're in season 15) roto league has shrunk to 10 teams (NL-only) - it basically starts to come down to who gets lucky with injuries and who doesn't.
The counterpoint my leaguemates make is that a larger league gives the advantage to someone who uses a treadmill waiver wire and simply out-amasses everyone else (which is true - in a straight-up roto league, it's pretty easy to win most of the counting stat categories if you simply devote an hour or so every morning to playing matchups).
Still, to me - the fun of fantasy baseball is finding the MR who gets a closing gig or the backup C who steals the starting job -- if you don't care about the question "Bobby Estellela or Mark Parent" -- you're just rolling dice...
Wha? I can understand the skepticism on Granderson, but Braun not in the top 10? In a league where you start five outfielders? The mind reels...
I think I might have held off on an SP, though... Doc is the only guy I think I'd consider in the first 3 rounds (maybe Verlander) - the others either don't have long enough track records or are young enough that I'd be concerned about injury. I'm a big fan of going bargain on the mound - don't trust pitchers.
He does, and I agree, for the same reason.
Simple to fix. Just make add/drops weekly only with a FAAB.
I'm in two 10-team AL only leagues, and we only have weekly FAABs.
Right now, the fifteen I'm leaning toward keeping are: Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Cecil Fielder, David Wright, Starlin Castro, Brett Lawrie, Carlos Santana, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Cain, Ryan Zimmerman, Mat Latos, Matt Garza, Adam Wainwright, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jonathan Papelbon.
The guys on the outside looking in are: Nelson Cruz, Shane Victorino, Jordan Walden, Jhoulys Chacin, Chris Sale, Yunel Escobar, Kenley Jansen, Dee Gordon, and John Danks.
What do you think? Am I keeping the right guys?
Tulowitzki's a perfectly reasonable top ten pick.
Really don't get Beltre with the 21st pick or Uggla with the 24th. And Reyes in the second round is a risk I wouldn't touch.
I'd personally swap Goldschmidt and Gordon... I think speed is enormously more value in a 5x5 or 4x4 than in real life. I know you've already got Castro, but having 2/3 of a MI filled is something I just don't think I could pass up. I like Goldy, but you've already got Prince and Zimmerman - even if he goes 30/100/.300 - seems to me you'll have an easier time finding another CI who can replicate that than you will another MI who should nab 30-40 SBs...
Not as stacked as the two guys who finished ahead of me last year, unfortunately.
With Gordon, if he projects to steal 40 bases, he's very valuable. If he steals 10-20, he's a lead weight dragging down your run production categories. That's a risk I probably wouldn't take.
(With 15 keepers slots, are you assuming that there will still be a lot of bulk closers available that you skim through? Because there's a case for keeping Jansen or Walden if keeping only one closer will put you at an unnecessary disadvantage in the draft.)
And I'd probably let Cecil go. The comeback is really unlikely at this point.
But that's how I'd play it if it were my league/competition, where everyone hoards closers like they are going out of style.
I usually do OK foraging for closers in the draft or the early going.
Yeah, pretty much. I draft a little better than both, but they're better at outright swiping guys in trades, so every year I lose a bit more ground.
No innings cap. We use a transaction cap to prevent roster churn instead: 30 FA/waiver claims for the whole year, and a dozen trades.
There are usually about ten closers that get kicked back into the draft in this league, give or take.
Heh, fair point.
I put Kimbrel back into the draft pool last year under similar circumstances, and then cursed my decision for the rest of the season.
In my roto league, we set a strict 162 x 9 = 1458 innings cap. Barring a guess at extra innings, I thought that was a rather clever idea, but feel free to tell me why the heretic should be burned.
We do a GS cap (181 IIRC) and a 1000 IP minimum.
Proud to say that I'm the reason for both, as I tried (successfully) the all-reliever strategy (win WHIP, ERA and Saves, punt wins... though somehow, I actually managed to vulture 3rd from last). We added K's to move to move to 5X5 the next season, so I went the other direction and ran an SP match-up based shuttle service. That was less successful (thanks, Eric @!#@#! Milton).... so finally, the min IP and max GS caps came into place.
Personally, while I haven't run the numbers -- I think the caps end up devaluing SPs even more. So long as you watch your GS numbers - I suppose the few true SP difference makers maintain their value - but to me, it means that anything outside the Halladay/Verlander/etc class becomes flotsam. Anymore - unless I can get a true ace at a good price - I never go over $5 for an SP anymore.
I fought to have SB erased from my league years ago (with the help of Mark Donelson), and I'm happy to say they've never returned.
We went with 1000 minimum mainly because it was just more a matter of scuttling the "all reliever" strategy; not ensuring someone got a "proper staff". Once you eliminate the oddball strategies - everything else pretty much worked itself out.
We keep SBs primarily because of the old roto principle that the overvaluation of SBs acts as a pseudo-proxy for defense. Obviously, that's not a great proxy by any stretch, fer Lonnie Smith's sake -- but especially in the paper and USAToday days, it was the only reasonably available defensive proxy.
One thing I think I've never lost sight of -- rotisserie baseball/fantasy baseball is a completely different game from real baseball. I know I've had plenty of great roto teams that would have made dreadful "real" teams -- heck, some years ago -- my 2B for a nearly entire season was Mark McGwire after TLR did that little bit of silliness with 'starting' Mac at 2B for away games, letting him bat in the first, then replacing him.
I think I might have held off on an SP, though... Doc is the only guy I think I'd consider in the first 3 rounds (maybe Verlander) - the others either don't have long enough track records or are young enough that I'd be concerned about injury. I'm a big fan of going bargain on the mound - don't trust pitchers.
I don't either. I wasn't really positive about my pick of Weaver. I like to hold off on pitchers, too, but there were enough catchers and shortstops I've planned to target that were still around that I took the chance.
Right now, I've got 9 picks before my next one and my plan A is to target McCann and Hosmer. The players remaining is here.
What'd SugarBear ever do to you?
Weaver over Felix feels kind of questionable to me, but not egregious.
With both Zimmerman and Lawrie remaining, you might actually want to think about taking a 3B, and using Bautista in the OF. With five starting OF slots per the article's league description, it seems like a format that overvalues the position, even though in conventional roto 3B is obviously much shallower right now.
It's a thought, but I still have OFs projected ahead of Zimmerman (Lawrie just taken) if you ignore position. I'm also thinking about Cruz and Pence.
It's another reason why positional scarcity -- or I guess, in this case, positional flexibility -- is so critical.
We do an auction, not a draft, but I'm going to overspend on anyone early -- I always like it to be someone with multi-position eligibility. Nothing sucks more than coming to the 2nd half and having to watch bargains float by because because you don't have room for them.
So long as you don't have to declare Bautista at a position just yet, that's one of the even better things about snagging him -- you can play the draft rather than playing the projections.
We only carry 9 pitchers, so 1458 IP would require basically 100% SPs.
I try not to be a slave to rankings. I just simply draft the best player available that fills a need on my roster.
Amen...
I've tried going in with a "plan" -- plans never work... Absolutely, you should have your values calculated - but you gotta play the draft/auction.
My worst years have been when I've gone in with a plan that I'm bound determined to stick to -- "I'm only going to spend 30% on pitching; I'm not going over any of my dollar estimates; etc."
Play the draft, not the plan.
This obviously doesn't account for scarcity or non-scarcity of excellent players at a position, but at that point I figure I'm playing the draft.
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