Baseball is a kid’s game, as they say. And sometimes the adults look like kids when they are playing.
Case in point: This bunt hit by Tampa Bay’s Steven Souza during Wednesday’s game against the Nationals. Thanks to some horrific fielding, Souza rounded the bases and got a “Little League home run.”
Phil Birnbaum doesn’t like dWAR. Soon, if MLB allows researchers to access their new fielding data, dWAR for current seasons will be calculated in an entirely different manner.
KC has the best. Philadelphia has the worst.
I have watched about 80% of the Red Sox games this year. Dustin Pedroia has looked as good as ever. I was surprised, however, to see he’s only at 0 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and has a 0 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). I look forward to a future when FIELDf/x numbers are available. (Crossing fingers.)
There has to be some better picks.
Non-Strat-O-Matic fans who are curious about the subject can try to follow Poz’s attempt to explain the game mechanics. I have no idea if that is actually possible to do in this format. He tried, anyway.
Strat fans can presumably nod along, and appreciate this:
What do I see? Well, raw IERP (and also raw DRS, not shown) has the same volatility as BABIP. Annual BABIP is mostly a crapshoot, so that confirms my expectation. ISO, wRC+ (and also wOBA, SLG, OBP, though not shown) are a fair bit better than BABIP. I don’t know about you, but when I see a one-year jump in ISO or wRC+, that’s a cause for interest. A one year blip may be a “breakout”, or the change might not last. We need to look deeper. Self-regression of IERP achieves that level of ...
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