49ers will win it all, and Trent Dilfer will lose the distinction of "worst QB to win a Super Bowl".

Da Bears! will win it, playing against NE denver will make the afc title game, bears beat the packers to get there.

meat got his drinking in early and it shows

packers will win 10 games

don't know about defense

but a guy like rodgers always give a team a shot

and that is all it takes

Im sober Harveys! just too lazy to form a proper sentence. and yes the bears will win the superbowl

I predict that one of the following teams will be in the Super Bowl.... Colts, Steelers, or Patriots. I've made the same prediction for the past 11 years and have been right 10 times.... (ok not really, but I would have been if I did---gotta love parity due to salary cap) (if you add Denver you get 14 of the last 17)

First year of the real retirement of Ricky Williams.

meat

old defense. schedule. o line iffy

win it all?

nah

I predict that one of the following teams will be in the Super Bowl.... Colts, Steelers, or Patriots. I've made the same prediction for the past 11 years and have been right 10 times....

I have no idea who is coming out of the AFC, but I am 107.63% certain it is not going to be the Colts.

[5] 9 of 9 sounds a lot better to me than 10 of 11. Just ignore Brady's first SB.

Edit: The other funny thing is that in those 11 years, the only NFC team to make it twice is the Giants. Lots of parody in the NFC.

I have no idea who is coming out of the AFC, but I am 107.63% certain it is not going to be the Colts.

agreed, but it doesn't change the validity of the claim. I find a salary cap to be hilarious in an American game that claims to be red/white/blue while basically enforcing the most radical and restrictive socialist structure in the U.S, and not actually bothering to bring parity to the league.

As noted, I really have no feel for this season at all so far, but that has never stopped anybody on the internet from loudly proclaim something, so in that spirit:

AFCW
4 Baltimore over 5 Oakland
3 Pittsburgh over 6 Buffalo
NFCW
3 NYG over 6 Detroit
4 Atlanta over 5 Dallas

AFCD
1 Houston over 4 Baltimore
2 NE over 3 Pittsburgh
NFCD
2 GB over 3 NYG
1 SF over 4 Atlanta

AFCC
1 Houston over 2 NE
NFCC
2 GB over 1 SF

SB
GB over Houston

OK, I'll play too.

AFCW
4Oakland over 5Pittsburgh
3Baltimore over 6Denver
NFCW
6NYG over 3Carolina
4Philly over 5Detroit

AFCD
1Houston over 4Oakland
3Baltimore over 2New England
NFCD
1Green Bay over 6NYG
2San Francisco over 4Philly

AFCC
3Baltimore over 1Houston
2San Francisco over 1Green Bay

SB
Baltimore over San Francisco

Mixed 4 and 5 seeds in the AFC obviously. I blame lack of coffee.

Did someone just predict an Alex Smith v Joe Flacco QB matchup in the superbowl? I love it. The NFL and ESPN would collectively #### their pants trying to generate enough content to cover 2 weeks of build up.

this was kind of an annoying week. the eagles cut keenan claytan, julian vandervelde, brent brackett, and phillip thomas. the 3 former names were all claimed on waivers, while phillip thomas hasn't yet found a landing spot.

the eagles put themselves on the line with vandervelde, thomas, and clayton as they cut each of them in favor of other personnel--they replaced vandervelde with nate menkin, they replaced phillip thomas with david sims, and they decided to keep casey matthews ahead of keenan clayton.

it's entirely possible that the eagles acquisitions will be more productive than their castoffs, but it's gonna be a shot to the nuts if any of clayton, vandervelde, brackett, or thomas become productive starters.



anyway, i'd love to say that the eagles will finish 14-2, but they won't. there'll be some combination of events, either awful safety/linebacker play, or an inability to stop the run, or an inability to get off the field on 3rd down, or the offense not having their timing, or the offense getting outplayed physically, or vick turning the ball over,or vick getting injured, or andy reid running out of timeouts, or...


on the other hand,i think it's a possibility that the eagles will break the single-season sack record. if the offense can put points on the board early, the defensive line is 10 deep in terms of guys who can get to the QB. the DTs--cullen jenkins, fletcher cox, derek landri, and cedric thornton--are all guys who collapse the pocket, and the DEs--babin, cole, hunt, graham, and tapp--are edge rushers who attack the QB with reckless abandon. there's some real talent there.

Harvey, 10 games for the Pack? I think you're underselling the team -- and I say that as a Bears fan. I think 12-13 wins is easily within their grasp.

Also, I wish I could see the Bears winning it all, but I think this is maybe a 9-10 win team. I expect they'll get a wild card berth, but the O-line and defense are going to be problematic, and they won't get past the first round.

Did Rafeal Bellylard just pick Carolina to win the NFC South? Really?!

This is Matt Ryan's 27-year old season. It's the year he goes Tom Brady/Peyton Manning on the league.

AFC
3 Steelers over 6 Chiefs
4 Broncos over 5 Ravens
1 Texans over 4 Broncos
2 Patriots over 3 Steelers
1 Texans over 2 Patriots

NFC
6 Falcons over 3 Giants
5 Cowboys over 4 Panthers
1 Packers over 6 Falcons
2 Seahawks over 5 Cowboys
1 Packers over 2 Seahawks

Packers 34 Texans 14

2013 NFL Draft
1. Jaguars
2. Dolphins
3. Cardinals
4. Browns
5. Colts

I find a salary cap to be hilarious in an American game that claims to be red/white/blue while basically enforcing the most radical and restrictive socialist structure in the U.S, and not actually bothering to bring parity to the league.

That's because the salary cap isn't intended to create parity, it's intended to keep payroll costs down and increase profits to the owners, which it does.

Also, I wish I could see the Bears winning it all, but I think this is maybe a 9-10 win team. I expect they'll get a wild card berth, but the O-line and defense are going to be problematic, and they won't get past the first round.

Me too, though I'd up the win total slightly, to 10-11 wins. The biggest problem facing the Bears is that they're clearly worse than another team in their division, which really hurts when it comes time to go on a playoff run.

My predictions:
NFC
3 Falcons def. 6 Saints
5 Bears def. 4 49ers

1 Packers def. 5 Bears
2 Giants def. 3 Falcons

1 Packers def. 2 Giants


AFC
3 Steelers def. 6 Bills
5 Ravens def. 4 Chargers

1 Texans def. 5 Ravens
3 Steelers def. 2 Patriots

1 Texans def. 3 Steelers


Super Bowl
Packers def. Texans

eddo

surprised you are giving the packers this level of success. as a packer fan i acknowledge the good fortune in terms of how the team received turnovers and won close games. i do not think the defense will advance enough to offset the obvious step back in those other areas. and the offensive line is very thin. one serious injury and the passing game changes significantly.

this is not poormouthing. the packers season could go south pretty easily

I'm just going to assume the Panthers are this year's darling pick for people who want to be "edgy."

Oooh, predictions!

NFC
6 Eagles def 3 Niners
5 Bears def 4 Giants

1 Packers def 5 Bears
2 Falcons def 6 Eagles

1 Packers def 2 Falcons

AFC
6 Bills def 3 Texans
4 Broncos def 5 Steelers

1 Patriots def 4 Broncos
6 Bills def 2 Ravens

1 Patriots def 6 Bills

Superbowl
Patriots def Packers

Everyone looks to love the Texans which means we should all run in the opposite direction. Texans strengths are running game and, possibly, defense but Schaub, Andre and a cast of thousands concern me when they have to throw, especially since Andre and Schaub don't like to play a full slate of games.

Ravens/Patriots look to be class of AFC

49ers, Falcons, Packers in NFC

very negative on san fran

Sports Illustrated on Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray:

His teammates gush about his intensity and how he runs with a mean streak, and in one recent practice he set the tone by bowling over reserve cornerback Teddy Williams, sending him to the sidelines with a concussion

That's how far we have left to go in confronting the "concussion crisis": it's still considered a huge positive to send one of your teammates to the turf with an addled brainpan.

But hey, I'm still a fan. I too want a safer sport, but I'd like it to be recognizably American football, a test of power and (literal) momentum.

I have no idea how to project the Cowboys. They were the pattern of on-again off-again last year. SI picks them to win the NFC East. Randy Galloway, over the weekend, had a story something like "If all goes well, they could win more than eight games" or something like that. Sounds about right :)

very negative on san fran

I'm not a huge fan of the QB but they play defense, run well, the receivers are reasonable and special teams are a positive. The weakness is getting the end zone. This hurts them when they play better teams.

This looks fun.

AFC
5 Cincinnati def. 4 Denver
3 Houston def. 6 Baltimore

1 New England def. 5 Cincinnati
3 Houston def. 2 Pittsburgh

1 New England def. 3 Houston

NFC
5 Philadelphia def. 4 San Francisco
3 New York def. 6 Chicago

5 Philadelphia def. 1 Green Bay
2 Atlanta def. 3 New York

5 Philadelphia def. 2 Atlanta

Philadelphia def. New England

Possible sleeper teams- Titans, Seahawks, Panthers
Possible falling back teams- Ravens (worried about health of defense), Saints, Lions

eddo

surprised you are giving the packers this level of success. as a packer fan i acknowledge the good fortune in terms of how the team received turnovers and won close games. i do not think the defense will advance enough to offset the obvious step back in those other areas. and the offensive line is very thin. one serious injury and the passing game changes significantly.

this is not poormouthing. the packers season could go south pretty easily

Oh, certainly, though I think you could say that about any team. In terms of predictions, on paper, the Packers appear to be the most likely to win the Super Bowl. But no one is by any means a strong favorite, let alone an overwhelming one.

I'm not a huge fan of the QB but they play defense, run well, the receivers are reasonable and special teams are a positive.

It is unlikely that their defense will be as healthy as it was last year (SF).

I had a heck of a time picking a second AFC wild card team; I wish I could slide the Bears over there.

AFC
3 Denver def. 6 NYJ
4 Pitt def. 5 Balt.

4 Pitt def. 1 NE
2 Houston def 3 Denver

2 Houston def 4 Pitt

NFC
3 Philadelphia def. 6 Seattle
5 Atlanta def. 4 NO

3 Philadelphia def. 2 SF
1 GB def. 5 Atlanta

1 GB def. 3 Philadelphia

GB def. Houston

not actually bothering to bring parity to the league.

I think the only way to deny that there is parity in the NFL is to focus on a few arbitrary selected criteria. The fact is, in the NFL nearly every team is within two years of contention, and pretty much everybody gets their day in the sun.

Let's take the proffered date range of the last 11 years (2001 - 2011). In that time frame:

NFC West: Rams in the Super Bowl. Seattle in the SB. Cardinals in the SB. 49ers in the NFC Championship game.

NFC North: Green Bay wins SB. Bears in the SB. Vikings in the NFC Championship game. Detroit historically bad but with a young, exciting team

NFC East: Giants win the SB. Eagles in the SB. Cowboys up and down but with playoff appearances. Only the Redskins have fallen consistently short.

NFC South: New Orleans wins SB. Tampa Bay wins SB. Carolina in the SB Atlanta in NFC Championship.

So over that span 14 of 16 NFC teams have come close to winning it all, even historically bad franchises like Tampa and Arizona.

AFC West: Raiders in SB. Chiefs in AFC Championship. Broncos in AFC Championship. Chargers in AFC Championship.

AFC North: Steelers win SB. Ravens win SB. Bengals up and down but with playoff appearances. Cleveland is Cleveland

AFC East: Patriots win SB. Jets in AFC Championship. Bills pretty stinky. Dolphins two playoff appearances.
AFC South: Colts win SB. Titans in AFC Championship. Jaguars generally bad, but with two playoff appearances. Texans an expansion team so hard to judge.


Here 10 of 16 have made the championship, two bad teams (Buffalo, Cleveland), three others semi-competitive, and one expansion team that is up and coming (Houston).

Seems pretty parity-filled to me.

I had a heck of a time picking a second AFC wild card team; I wish I could slide the Bears over there.

Me too. Is this the year the balance of power shifts back to the NFC? You could argue last year was a step in that direction, as well.

boond

special teams are rarely consistent from year to year due to personnel changes. their receivers are old and dreadful so i find your assessment puzzling. unless you are counting vernon davis as a receiver in which case they have one good player surrounded by dreck

their best defensive lineman is 33 years old. i don't know if he can re-create his crazy rhino performance of 2011. yes they have other good defenders and defense can be more reliable from year to year.

san fran has a tougher schedule, the division is better and there are too many factors pushing against them. i can see them winning 10 games if the defense is still strong and harbaugh really does coach up the offense.

I think the only way to deny that there is parity in the NFL is to focus on a few arbitrary selected criteria.

There may or may not be parity in the NFL. The salary cap has nothing to do with it though.

Philadelphia def. New England

1 GB def. 3 Philadelphia

Man you guys are going to be disappointed. And I say that as an Eagles fan. I have doubts they'll even have a winning record.

their receivers are old and dreadful so i find your assessment puzzling.

I think neither Crabtree nor Moss will offer much, but Manningham is a good receiver.

the afc has several teams that i perceive as having too much age at key positions like baltimore, the jets, and pittsburgh. i have to think these teams will take a step back. i could easily see the jets winning 3-4 games.

Man you guys are going to be disappointed. And I say that as an Eagles fan. I have doubts they'll even have a winning record.

I'm picking Philly to win purely as a fan, although I think they might have the most raw talent in the league.

Man you guys are going to be disappointed. And I say that as an Eagles fan. I have doubts they'll even have a winning record.

I'll be disappointed if I'm *right*, as a Giants fan.


i could easily see the jets winning 3-4 games.

For all their problems last year the Jets won 8 games. This year, their schedule in addition to 2 with Buffalo and 2 with Miami includes:

Indy
@Rams
Arizona
@Jax
SD

I would happy bet a bb-ref sponsorship on them winning more than four games.

And I agree with Harveys about Pittsburgh and Baltimore taking a step back. I just don't see who takes a step forward to pass them.

Let's take the proffered date range of the last 11 years (2001 - 2011).

...

Chiefs in AFC Championship.

The Chiefs topped out in 2003, losing in the divisional round to the Colts.

However, that doesn't really refute your overall point (which I agree with). They were indeed 13-3 that year, and have made the playoffs multiple times since then.

kurt

all those teams you list save jacksonville strike me as being better than 2011.

Long time 49er fan here. They are probably not going to win 13 games this year, and I agree with Harveys that their special teams is due for some fall off. Their other huge win last couple years is amazing health on defense. However, I disagree about Justin Smith. He has been a monster for 5 years - going back to his time with the Bengals, but the teams around him were terrible and he got no press. The other Smith (OLB) is pretty good and you could say that they have 2 of the best 3-4 ILBs in the NFL.

IF they can keep their pass rush fresh and healthy - I think their defense will be very solid, top 8.
Their special teams was worth about 40 points last year -- but they have the best punter and one of the best PKs in the league -- I think that that will stay consistent. Will the kick coverage be as good? Hard to say. I expect the return (15 points) teams to drop off. But I would say they would probably still be about +15-20 points on ST overall. One thing in their favor is that they were 3rd-5th best in EACH area of SP (FG/Punt/Koff/Punt return/KO return) - not just fluky good in one area. They did get a new coach in 2011 or 2012 and there is some evidence that the ST coaches have consistent year-to-year results.

But if they just fall off a little, and don't collapse back to 50th percentile, the team probably still wins 9, and the division is bad.

So what matters for the Niners is the offense. They changed their RG. They added 2 veteran receivers. They actually know the offense now (well, I am not convinced this matters, but it might). Smith has actually been servicable for 2 years - even discounting last years flukey INT rate. He could possibly improve. The tackle position is weak as well.

What really matters is the following:

1) Can they run the ball more effectively even vs. 8 man fronts?
2) Can the upgraded WRs take some pressure off the running game and get separation to beat the blitz?
3) Can the OL pass protect without Davis chip blocking?

Everyone knows the Niners can't (couldn't) pass the ball in obvious passing downs. Less well known is that they struggled running the ball in obvious running situations (and passed very effectively in those situations!).

very negative on san fran

the afc has several teams that i perceive as having too much age at key positions like baltimore, the jets, and pittsburgh. i have to think these teams will take a step back.

Harvey's why you hate defense?

I would happy bet a bb-ref sponsorship on them winning more than four games.

I agree with that. They'll beat Miami in those two games for sure. Buffalo might be a decent team this year. But if the Jets really disappoint and are playing like a 3-4 win team early, Sanchez will be benched and Tebow will get them a few wins.

I'm a little worried that Harvey is not drinking the Packer (Leinenkugel flavored) kool-aid. Just got Rodgers in fantasy and am hoping to ride his arm to a league title.

The Chiefs topped out in 2003, losing in the divisional round to the Colts.

The last time the Chiefs won a playoff game I was in high school, Joe Montana was the Chiefs QB, Warren Moon was the QB he defeated in the Astrodome, LA had two football teams, Trent Richardson was two years old, four NFL teams that currently exist had not yet been created yet. A few weeks after the Chiefs win, Jurickson Profar would be born.

Packers 34 Texans 14

Super Bowl
Packers def. Texans

GB def. Houston

Bunch of copycats.

But if the Jets really disappoint and are playing like a 3-4 win team early, Sanchez will be benched and Tebow will get them a few wins.

Does not compute.

AFC:
1. New England
2. Houston
3. Baltimore
4. Denver
5. Buffalo
6. Pittsburgh

AFC is very weak to me. The 2 wild card teams can come from anywhere. I really like what Buffalo has done on defense and they have a better offense than the Jets.


NFC:
1. Atlanta
2. Green Bay
3. Philadelphia
4. Seattle
5. New Orleans
6. Detroit

NFC is loaded in talent. Detroit, Chicago, San Fran, New York Giants, Dallas would all be better than almost anything the AFC put out. They are 11-12 legitimate playoff teams in the NFC, there are about 4 in the AFC.

Super Bowl: Green Bay over Houston