I really like what Buffalo has done on defense and they have a better offense than the Jets.

They have some excellent tools. If Fitzpatrick threw 20+ picks because of a legit injury, they could very well win a wild card. If he threw 20+ picks because that's what he is, they will miss the playoffs.

Detroit, San Fran and Cincy seem like prime regression candidates. I think everyone is overvaluing Buffalo because of their free agent splurge, but they still have Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. I think Denver is a good regression candidate too, but someone has to win that division. KC seems like a good bounceback candidate since they get back so many players that missed '11, but they looked so god awful in the preseason and are already hit with injuries again, I just can't pick them.

I didn't pick NOLA to make the playoffs, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them play a lot better than people think they will. Any team that has Drew Brees at QB is going to be pretty good.

Philly and San Diego seem like long-time good teams that will finally hit the wall this year.

I fully admit I'm probably overvaluing Seattle, but there always seems to be one team that kinda comes out of nowhere to get a top 2 seed. Seattle has a good running game, a pretty solid defense, and Russell Wilson was pretty impressive. OTOH, Pete Carroll.

I had no idea Houston was going to be that popular of a pick.

I think everyone is really sleeping on New Orleans. Their defense has been bad enough that it can't hurt them more and their offense shouldn't have any problems. I also think it might take 11 wins for an NFC WC.

NFC
5 ATL def 4 SF
3 NYG def 6 CHI

1 NO def 5 ATL
3 NYG def 2 GB

1 NO def 3 NYG

AFC
3 HOU def 6 OAK
4 DEN def 5 PIT

4 DEN def 1 NWE
2 BAL def 3 HOU

2 BAL def 4 DEN

Super Bowl - BAL over NO

regarding green bay:

marshall newhouse is a good kid who tries hard and i am sure he loves his mother but he was a terrible left tackle last year and almost got rodgers killed on several plays. and if he goes down the backup is a cardboard cutout of chad clifton. the packers are wishcasting on good health from their starting offensive line because it gets ugly fast if anyone misses time.

on the defense the d-line remains an unknown and with desmond bishop out for a while that means a whole lot of aj hawk who was one step above a dead man in terms of performance in 2011. charles woodson continues to work in a smaller and smaller box and within that box he is great but if that box is smaller than the patience i have for my in-laws then the packers have a problem. the cornerback position opposite tramon williams is a question mark and in a pass crazy league having uncertainty in the secondary is being in the fast lane towards having to win games 35-31. packers tried that and come playoff time it didn't work so well.

so you have a team that has centered its season the quarterback being phenomenal, given him a protective barrier anchored by a young man with bad feet and no punch and improved the defense by drafting a bunch of kids and looking at them through lenses that makes everyone look like a member of the 1996 packer defense.

sure, it's a plan.

pardon me if i observe the flaws

I predict the best team in September will not be the best team in January.

I am probably just a homer, but I think Detroit is probably going to be as good as they were last season, if not better. If that is good enough to make the playoffs, I don't know. But they had little turnover (return 21 of 22 starters) and have a young nucleus that should improve instead of regress.

Also they get back a healthy Nick Fairley and Mikel LeShoure as well. Perhaps neither are as good as their draft status, but it is something.

by the way, i am firm and i do mean firm believer that turnovers are luck. i will not debate teh point as i posted on football outsiders in their first year this notion and schwartz wrote a snotty message on how if i wanted to do the research and post it that would be great otherwise just hush and then 2 years later they came out with this big 'ta da' on how fumble recovery was luck and i just smirked and said to myself no sh8t sherlock

i also think most interceptions are luck though a bit less so.

the packers got a lot of turnovers last year.

ain't gonna happen. if that defense is not better this team is in serious deep water and i don't think for all of aaron's greatness he can paddle fast enough to keep the season afloat

what i do like about the packers is last i checked there were 4 guys in their 30's on the roster. football is a young man's game by far.

Fumble recovery is one element of turnovers, not the whole ball of wax.

I am really looking forward to week 1 Niners @ Packers. I think it will be very telling for both teams' 2012 season - not really W/L so much as are the two teams competitive and play a cloase game. Although, of course @55 has an excellent point. And if Harvey's right about both teams then it could be a thrilling 27-28 game between two 8-8 teams.

kurt

i have seen loads of research. it's mostly luck

and please don't point me to the bs that fo is putting out as their version. been there done that.

so go ahead and write me off as stupid. i am fine with that.

I think it's really hard to tell if there's a year-to-year correlation with turnovers. Rosters turn over at incredible speeds, defensive coordinators get replaced all the time and some players, like Ed Reed, can skew the numbers all by themselves. And I think playing with a lead all the time, like the Packers have done recently, can artificially inflate them. Even if they're somewhat predictable overall, I'd think it's impossible to predict for any specific team.

Cool, fun


AFC
WC
3 Denver def. 6 Baltimore
5 Buffalo def. 4 Cinci

D
1 NE def. 5 Buffalo
2 Houston def 3 Denver

C
2 Houston def 1 NE

NFC
WC
6 New Orleans def. 3 San Francisco
5 Detroit def. 4 Dallas

D
2 GB def. 6 NO
1 Atlanta def. 5 Detroit

C
1 Atlanta def. 2 GB

SB
Atlanta def. Houston


You guys are obviously right. The AFC WC is going to be a crapshoot. It's all going to come down to the seeding via tiebreakers - I'm pretty confident NE/Hou are going to be the top 2 seeds, but who comes out of the West and North and their respective records is going to determine the course of the first couple of rounds. Of course I expect NE and Hou to get to the AFC Championship game anyway, most likely.

Just for fun I checked SF's age vs. Green Bays -- and Harvey's correct (not that I doubted him) they only have 4 guys over _29_

Old 49ers:
Akers (PK) - 37
L. Davis (backup OG) - 33
Goodwin (C) - 33
Moss (WR) - 35
J. Smith (DT) - 32
Sopoaga (DT) - 31
Rogers (CB) - 32
Haggins (back up OLB 35 - he was just signed off waivers when Harralson went on IR
Jennings (long snapper) - 35

Jacobs (3rd RB) 30
Lee (P) 30

Of these, obviously the kickers and the long snapper don't count. But Smith/Sopoga/Rogers are all front line - every down starters.

For Green Bay:
Driver (WR) - 37
Pickett (DT) - 32 - I guess he is Raji's backup
Saturday (C) - 37
Woodson (DB) - 35


Interesting (but not surprising) that the old(er) players are all the same positions (although Justin Smith is much more of a DE than DT)

I am probably just a homer, but I think Detroit is probably going to be as good as they were last season, if not better. If that is good enough to make the playoffs, I don't know. But they had little turnover (return 21 of 22 starters) and have a young nucleus that should improve instead of regress.

Perhaps. I like them, but I question their secondary and running game. They did catch a break in that the two divisions they will face this year are the worst in football - the AFC South and NFC West. That might inflate their win total a bit.

Man, the NFC does seem loaded. I don't have the Saints or Lions or Bears or 49ers in the playoffs, and I could see any of those teams being as high as a #3 seed in the AFC.

zen

saturday and woodson will play all time

pickett rotates in and out at end, not nose

driver is kept around for reasons i cannot fathom as i took ted thompson as a guy with no sentimentality. driver's hands are going, he gets hurt more frequently when at one time driver was impervious to injury and he struggles to get away from even average corners.

donald should have left head held high

Wed's game is on NBC btw.

AFC
4 Pittsburgh over 5 Houston
3 Baltimore over 6 Oakland

1 New England over 4 Pittsburgh
2 Denver over 3 Baltimore

1 New England over 2 Denver

NFC

4 New York over 5 Detroit
6 Philadelphia over 3 San Francisco

6 Philadelphia over 1 Green Bay
2 Atlanta over 4 New York

2 Atlanta over 6 Philadelphia

Patriots over Falcons in Super Bowl

AFC
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Houston
4 Kansas City
5 New York
6 Buffalo

Houston over Buffalo, New York over Kansas City
Pittsburgh over Houston, New England over New York

Pittsburgh over New England

NFC
1 Green Bay
2 Atlanta
3 New York
4 San Francisco
5 Chicago
6 Philadelphia

Chicago over San Francisco, Philadelphia over New York
Atlanta over Chicago, Philadelphia over Green Bay

Atlanta over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 47: Atlanta over Pittsburgh

Baltimore seems to me to be the team poised to take a big drop, what with the age and attrition in their O line and front seven. That makes picking AFC wild cards even tougher. With the limited upside and tough schedules out West, it basically leaves just CIN, NYJ, and BUF.

Wanted to pull the trigger on Seattle in the NFCW, but I figure that even with the expected regression the Niners should still have a stout enough defense to pull through. I also really forced Atlanta through to have something besides just GB/NE/PIT ... I think they're plenty good, but I think they'll need somebody with a more stout 4 man pass rush to get the Packers out of their path. I think a GB-ATL rematch may resemble the playoff game of two years ago. Also, it is tough to sleep on the Saints, but coaching just has to matter enough to justify all those 100 hour weeks, doesn't it? The last person to disagree with that was the Old Ball Coach in DC, and that didn't end terribly well for him.

Something I don't understand is why Joe Vitt has been coaching the Saints. They're already without their head coach. I would want them to be getting ready with the guy who is going to be actually coaching the team for the first six games. Switching guys (twice, before week 1 and when Vitt comes back) seems like needless complication.

The New Yorker's take on NFL injury reports.

Something I don't understand is why Joe Vitt has been coaching the Saints.

I get why the Saints would have him be the coach, he was Payton's right hand man. What I don't get is why the NFL allowed a suspended coach to be the interim head coach (once he returns from suspension). Which is probably quibbling since it seems that Sean Payton is still in charge:

Of course, I'm following the Saints real closely with the TV copy and the coaches tape and all those other things.

How did he get coaches tape? No one from the team is allowed to interact with him.

Is that the all-22 tape? Because that's available to the public starting this season.

Is that the all-22 tape? Because that's available to the public starting this season.

It is. And yes, it's available to the public starting this season. But it isn't right now and he's saying he has it.

I get why the Saints would have him be the coach, he was Payton's right hand man. What I don't get is why the NFL allowed a suspended coach to be the interim head coach (once he returns from suspension). Which is probably quibbling since it seems that Sean Payton is still in charge:

I would have fired him just to avoid this situation. When a man has that much control despite being suspended, the whole system is out of whack.

That's because the salary cap isn't intended to create parity, it's intended to keep payroll costs down and increase profits to the owners, which it does.

But it's marketed to the fans as a parity creator. Everytime the Yankees win something, or get a free agent you will see articles and people clamoring for a MLB salary cap to re-introduce parity (like the NFL) into MLB.

There was actually, living, breathing human beings who were against the players for being to greedy in the last round of CBA. I do not know what magic the NFL weaves to get people to assume that the organization isn't utterly corrupt, but it's something that every politician needs to learn how to bottle.

So over that span 14 of 16 NFC teams have come close to winning it all, even historically bad franchises like Tampa and Arizona.

...........................

Here 10 of 16 have made the championship, two bad teams (Buffalo, Cleveland), three others semi-competitive, and one expansion team that is up and coming (Houston).

Seems pretty parity-filled to me.

Same timespan for baseball.

NL West Giants win W/S, Diamondbacks win, Rockies in w/s, Dodgers in championship game
NL Central Cardinals win, Astros in, Cubs in championship game, Brewers in championship game
Nl East Braves in championship, Marlins win, Mets in championship game, Phillies win,

So in the NL You have 12 out of 16 (Padres with 2 division titles win only one playoff game, Nationals we all know about, Reds who have won the division two years in a row now, and the Pirates)

In the Al

Al West Rangers in ws, Angels win, A's in championship game, Mariners in championship game
Al Central Tigers in ws, Indians in championship game, White Sox won,
Al East Yankees won, Red Sox won, Rays in Ws,

In the Al you have 10 out 14 teams make it to the championship, (Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals and Twins who won 5 division titles in that time frame...missed out) Not seeing the parity advantage in the NFL.

Not saying you are claiming there is a parity advantage, saying others are and that MLB needs to follow the evilness that is the NFL model.

Football Outsiders DVOA is out. They're insanely high on the Jets (8th best team, 9.5 mean wins), way high on Carolina, down on Detroit and incredibly down on the whole NFC West.

I would have fired him just to avoid this situation. When a man has that much control despite being suspended, the whole system is out of whack.

Between the suspensions, the fine, and the loss of draft picks, it's inexplicable that they didn't fire him. How do you justify that? He's a good play-caller? Not good enough.

Between the suspensions, the fine, and the loss of draft picks, it's inexplicable that they didn't fire him. How do you justify that? He's a good play-caller? Not good enough.

Because he won a Super Bowl, so Tom Benson loves him. The GM, Mickey Loomis is suspended for 8 games so in the meantime he's the Executive Vice President of the Hornets.

This had me in tears: 2012 NFL preview in 16 animated gifs

Because he won a Super Bowl, so Tom Benson loves him.

Sure, but lots of coaches have rings. He caused the loss of their head coach for a year, the indefinite suspension of their DC (who, granted, was really bad at his job, but no one seemed to realize that previously), the loss of another key coach for 6 games, and the loss of multiple high, extremely valuable draft picks.

the indefinite suspension of their DC

Williams was gone already.

Williams was gone already.

Damn, thanks for the correction. I still think it's crazy.

Sure, but lots of coaches have rings. He caused the loss of their head coach for a year, the indefinite suspension of their DC (who, granted, was really bad at his job, but no one seemed to realize that previously), the loss of another key coach for 6 games, and the loss of multiple high, extremely valuable draft picks.

Sure, but clearly Tom Benson doesn't want to lose him. His opinion is really all that matters.

I believe Benson had told Payton to stop the bounties and Payton failed to/ignored him. So Payton failed to take action that could have very easily reduced the penalty significantly.

Sure, but clearly Tom Benson doesn't want to lose him. His opinion is really all that matters.

Well, yeah, I get why he's still employed: the guy who signs the paychecks didn't fire him. I'm just saying he clearly should have. Super Bowl winning coaches get fired for going 9-7. Payton caused measurable damage to the franchise. Benson is an idiot.

Well, yeah, I get why he's still employed: the guy who signs the paychecks didn't fire him. I'm just saying he clearly should have. Super Bowl winning coaches get fired for going 9-7. Payton caused measurable damage to the franchise. Benson is an idiot.

I get that, and I think we all agree. But Tom Benson can do what he wants with the team (within certain limitations of course).

Running straight up the middle is not the best idea when you have a backup center and two crappy guards in.

Art Modell has died, which will probably not trouble too many of our Ohio-based NFL fans.

Everyone keeps saying Modell was an innovator, but no one seems to say why exactly he was an innovator.

This had me in tears: 2012 NFL preview in 16 animated gifs

Awesome. Especially the ones for Rams and Cardinals. And Vikings.

Yeah, Bob Irsay was the one who pioneered the whole "stab your fans and your city in the back" strategy. Modell was late to the party on that one.

Saints win Bounty appeal players can play

That's really going to make Goodell look bad.

Saints players can play Sunday

Art Modell has died, which will probably not trouble too many of our Ohio-based NFL fans.

I am having a hard time shedding a tear, and an even harder time not saying something that might condemn myself or Trent Richardson to a karmic boomerang.

Tom Scocca: Art Modell, 1925-2012: grifter, traitor, model NFL owner

"I have a great legacy, tarnished somewhat by the move. The politicians and the bureaucrats saw fit to cover their own rear ends by blaming it on me," Modell said. "They built a new ballpark, a new arena, a science museum and the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, but I couldn't get running water in the upper deck."

Next paragraph:
The Ravens now play in a lavish new stadium—as do the expansion Cleveland Browns.

How you feel about that punchline—and the $550 million of public money smoldering beneath it—is a pretty good test of how much of a schmuck you are. Today's obituaries mostly assume schmuckhood. The AP assures us that Modell was "beloved in Baltimore." Do tell.

That's really going to make Goodell look bad.

Yes and no. Essentially, the appeal was upheld due to lack of evidence. Goodell can still re-suspend them, as long as he provides evidence.

While I definitely agree that Goodell overstepped his bounds with regard to due process, I also am a bit surprised at how public sentiment has been rather strong on the side of players who were paying each other to intentionally injure other players. Not for hard hits, not for critical stops, but for dirty plays.

76--yeah; I think that points to a pretty ugly truth, which is that fans basically don't give a damn about the players; treating players badly is a double win: it saves money and gets a PR bonus for the league.

National Laundry League.