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The Bears probably have the best defense in the league, so even if their offense is suddenly the worst - which seems unlikely as long as the Browns, Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars, Chiefs, Panthers, Cardinals, Rams are still around - that would put them overall as a midpack team.
Well, I wasn't down on them last year when Cutler went down. I thought for sure they would do better than they did when he went down so I don't think it is really fair to call me pessiistic about the Bears. For the most part I've predicted that the Bears over the years would not do much and they haven't done much. I've never predicted some 2-14 season or anything like that. I've usually predicted that they weren't going to win the big game and they generally didn't. I'v hated the offensive line for over a decade now and they have yet to do anything that proves my opinion to be wrong or unfounded. I'm not one of those Bears fans that hates Cutler or thinks he doesn't care. I've never been sold on the greatness of Forte and I don't think Smith is a very good head coach. Like I said earlier I don't think that makes me a very pessimistic Bears fan.
The problem is that I think they can be better than consistently average and they get to average because Smith can't really do a lot of things well besides coach the cover-2.
As Harvey mentioned their special teams has been good for awhile and it was good even before Smith got here when they had Abramowitz or whatever the special teams coach's name was. I can't really credit Smith on that one, that is more of an organizational credit than a coach's system credit. The offense has been bad, cautious, and generally done a poor job of time management during Smith's entire tenure. You can and I do to a degree blame the GM but Smith also has to get a ton of blame for that as well. His defense has been good to really good during his time here and I do credit him for that but I've never really believed that Smith's defense can stand up against a really good QB and offense.
Actually I don't think Cutler healthy moves the needle much in this game at all (of course it's a month away). The Bears are not likely to score a lot of points on offense either way - it comes down to Special Teams and Niners schizoid offense vs. Bears defense. And if they DO have offensive success, it will be because they can run the ball. EDIT: heh, ambigious sentence. I meant the Bears but it applies equally the other way)
love you to death but turnovers are mostly luck. the bears are still a very good team but turnovers are mostly luck
don't think the quality of the defense has much to do with turnovers. it's not a sustainable, repeatable thing from year to year
I thought it was recovering fumbles that was luck, but that causing fumbles and getting interceptions was actually a skill(or at least a decent part of it was a skill)?
Tillman is definitely a skilled causer of fumbles but it isn't like he causes a fumble on every play he is in.
Most certainly but it isn't a skill you can design a gameplan around.
it's the manner in which the bears defense that allows some of the players to try and force fumbles. the bears scheme, effort and abilities create circumstances where player 'a' can go for the ball knowing that player 'b' and maybe 'c' are nearby to clean up if in the effort to go for the ball player 'a' lets the offensive player break free
Luck vs. Griffin, a Statistical Comparison
After seven weeks, Robert Griffin III of the Redskins has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. He leads the N.F.L. with a 70.4 completion percentage, and could become the first rookie to lead the league in that category since Parker Hall with the Rams in 1939.
Griffin also ranks first in yards per attempt with an 8.5 average, and could become the first rookie since another Ram, Bob Waterfield in 1945, to lead the N.F.L. in that statistic. Only two rookies in professional football history have ever led the league in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. The first was another Redskin, Sammy Baugh, in 1937; the last was Greg Cook, in the American Football League in 1969 (his career was ruined by a shoulder injury that year).
Griffin’s statistical domination of the record book has been astounding. And that’s before we get to the fact that he has 468 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns in seven games, putting Cam Newton’s rookie rushing records in both categories (706 and 14) in jeopardy....
But traditional statistics don’t always tell the full story, especially when we’re dealing with a sample size that’s smaller than half a season. Those watching [Andrew] Luck have usually come away thinking that he’s the next great quarterback, despite the raw numbers. Fortunately, there’s a way to fill in the rather large gap between perception and statistical production. One of those tools is ESPN’s Total QBR, which ranks Luck as the sixth-best quarterback in the N.F.L. this season. That’s even ahead of Griffin, who is eighth in QBR.
Jeff Bennett of ESPN Stats & Information, in a telephone interview, was able to help explain why Luck was not only the best rookie quarterback this season, but also perhaps the most underrated quarterback in the N.F.L....
Does anyone know where to find a copy of the opening NFL lines each week, going back 1, 2, or 3 years? Doesn't really matter which source.
Depends on how selective he is about his running, and maybe even more on the quality of his protection. Roger Staubach had the closest match of skill sets I've seen to Griffin, and he managed to have a pretty good career, if not an unusually long one. Of course Staubach was more of a great scrambler than a proactive runner, so the comparison isn't all that precise.
lovie smith is a middle class man's bobby cox in that he has to be great at connecting with players but struggles with in-game decisions and tactics.
Is it O-line issues? WR unable to get separation? Or does he just like to scramble?
QBR is a worthless stat. Even Chase Stuart should be smart enough to realize that.
Well, it depends what you're using it for. It's a pretty good measure of how efficient and productive your passing offense is.
Certainly odd that Andy Reid would decide to tell us today that Danny Watkins has a "chronic" ankle and that #Eagles knew it before draft.
Andy Reid should probably fire himself for giving up on the game with 20 minutes to go.
It doesn't move the needle. This is yet another win over an unimpressive team by the Falcons.
So, I know every fan thinks the national press underrates their team, but does today's throttling of Philly on the road (assuming it holds) move the respect-needle for the Falcons, or is the narrative out of this game "Eagles play poorly?"
That's what I assume will be the case too.
Is there such a thing as the ultimate passer rating stat? No, but there is one that works better than any other. Years ago, working on an article for my high school paper, I wrote to the NFL's leading stats expert, Bud Goode. My question was simple: What do you think are the most important stats for a quarterback to be rated by? His answer was equally simple: "Yards per pass attempt, and closely behind that one, interception percentage." A short time later, in a story for Sports Illustrated Goode wrote, "I want this on my headstone: Here lies Bud Goode. He told the world about yards per pass attempt." (Goode died in 2010; to my knowledge, his request was not honored.)
Early in 1993, working with George Ignatin, I embarked on a project to determine how good a tool yards/pass attempt really was. We calculated every pro football game played from 1958-1992. What stats correlated the best with winning? Goode was vindicated: It was yards/pass attempt, as in gross yards gained passing divided by the number of attempts.
The second most-important stat was interception percentage. The challenge was how to combine them into an easily accessible formula available to any fan.
This was finally accomplished by figuring the value, in terms of yards, of an interception. We determined this by adding all the yards gained in every possession a football team had over the course of a season as well as the average number of yards gained on punts. We also figured in the average number of yards that interceptions were returned for.
After weeks of painstaking work—painstaking for the math-deprived like me, at least—we determined that an interception was worth 49.38 yards, which rounded off nicely to 50. We called the result Adjusted Yards/Pass or AYP.
I'll show you how to figure it, starting with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, by anyone's standards surely one of the best passers in the NFL this decade. So far this year, Rodgers has passed for 1,979 yards in 262 attempts. He has been picked off four times, so multiplying that by 50, we get 200; subtracting that from his yards passing, we get 1,779 yards. We then divide that by the number of attempts, 262, and get an AYP of 6.79.
But Rodgers's AYP isn't the most impressive in the league. So far that honor goes to the Washington Redskin's sensational rookie Robert Griffin III who, in seven games, has gained 1601 yards in 189 attempts for a sensational 8.47 yards/attempt. And he has done it while throwing just three interceptions. So, subtracting 150 yards from RG3's gross yards passing, we get 1451 yards, which divided by 189 is an impressive 7.67 YPA.
Why are the Redskins only 3-4? Because their defense has allowed 200 points, the highest of any team in their conference and 30th out of 32 teams in the entire league. They have also allowed 8.0 yards per attempt this year, 27th in the league.
(By the way, No.'s 2 and 3 in AYP are the Mannings, Peyton at 7.08 and Eli, 7.02.),
No eagles suck. FO which has historically loved Reid's teams, had the eagles ranked 20 in dvoa coming into today.
RGIII didn't have a good game, but it was mostly because his receivers suck dog ####. If they had a decent receiver corp, they're going to the playoffs with a chance to win the division.
Steagles, you said in your beginning paragraph that there are no career Eagles left, and then mention Maclin, McCoy and Jackson. Those three are a good base for your offense.
Seattle is a few plays away from 5-3.
And one play away from 3-5.
the lack of depth in detroit is evident on special teams which might be the worst in the league
As to RG3, hadn't he completed 70% of his passes coming in? His receivers had a terrible day dropping the ball in the rain (and he didn't make it better on one play as a receiver himself, committing interference), but they'd been doing something right earlier this year. I think BourbonSamurai has the basic point: the Redskins need to concentrate now on building their defense, which makes the Cowboys' unit look like the Seven Blocks of Granite.
yea they suck, I cannot stand watching Logan return kicks and punts. He must have pictures of Schwartz with a dead girl or a live boy because he has cost them plenty this year with his crap returns and constant fumbles. Kickoff and punt cover teams suck as well.
Alot of people thought Detroit would fall back to 9-7 and miss the playoffs in a loaded division, those predictions are looking dead on. They are still 1-2 players on both sides of the ball away from moving out of the middle of the pack (they are there in record and DVOA) and towards the front. Their recent drafts have been mediocre at best at building the sort of depth necessary for that to happen.
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