Thursday, May 09, 2013
Glassey: Wannabe Scouts: Show Some Respect
(conorglassey.com)
Conor Glassey explains the difference between what writers do and what scouts do:
Read More...Yes, we often will write about players we’ve seen and we’ll tell you how fast a pitcher was throwing, what kind of offspeed pitches he throws, or how fast an outfielder got from home to first. That’s not scouting, that’s just reporting. Anybody can sit at a game and hold a radar gun or click a stopwatch.
However, there’s a growing number of people online who think the opposite. It’s baffling to me ...
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MKG got my co-worker and I thinking: where would Deng go in a hypothetical re-do of the 2004 draft?
NBA draft, 2004, sorted by WS (bb-ref).
Howard remains the obvious #1. After that, candidates for #2 are (alphabetically) Deng, Iguodala, Kevin Martin, Josh Smith, Varejao. I have to think those five guys go 2-6.
After that, it's guys like Al Jefferson, Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris. Good careers, but not on the same level, right?
I think Iguodala goes #2, unless Philly has the 2nd pick. Deng 3, Smith 4, Varejao 5 and Martin 6.
Actually, Okafor still probably goes top 5. That's not a terrible draft.
EDIT: Rafael Araujo would not be drafted. Livingston probably would go high still, if you can undo the knee injury.
Jefferson isn't on the same level as Varejao? I'd have put Varejao in with the lower group.
Just go back and ask if anyone could see a lotto team reaching for Meyers Leonard.
---
I'm assuming if this were to happen (and I wouldn't think it's likely to work), he's already gone through the amnesty waiver process and would be an UFA.
Thanks, Der K, for ending it on Araujo.
And I'm not sure I could have told you "Rafael Araujo" was the name of a basketball player until I looked up that draft today.
1. Would you all take Rondo now?
2. Do you think we (not we, so much as people) continue to overrate size?
though, seeing where iguodala has brought the sixers over the last 8 years, i might actually argue that they'd have been better off if iguodala went to toronto.
with the way the iverson era blew up, if that draft had gone differently, maybe it would have been the sixers to have durant and westbrook and harden now.
I agree with this. Jefferson is in that top group for sure. I'd go Iguodala #2. I'd consider him for #3 with Deng and Smith, with Martin probably #6.
Big Al is certainly a more efficient offensive player than Deng - though obviously Deng makes up (at least) much of that on the defensive end. Would probably depend on what my team needed to choose between those two and Smith.
Howard
Iggy / Smith / Deng
Varejao / Jefferson / Okafor / Harris / Nelson / Martin
I can't justify placing Jefferson in the second tier because it's really difficult to contend in the NBA with a center who isn't good defensively. In contrast to Jefferson, those top 4 guys are probably among the 10 most valuable defenders in the league. Deng, Iggy, and Smith led the #2, #3, and #6 defenses this season, and of course Howard is a 3-time DPOY.
looks like the wiz will stick w wittman.
This seems harsh. After his rookie and sophomore seasons (so the past 6 years), the lowest PER he's recorded was a 19, and he's never had a TS% below .500. Granted, his defensive efficiency hasn't been good over the course of his career, but I don't know how damning that is going forward-- it spiked when he got traded to Minny and dropped significantly this year, his second with Utah. He'll never be a plus defender, but he's solid in the post and has mediocre mobility-- exactly the sort of guy who'll be exposed on a bad defensive team but can fit into a good one with some scheming.
For what it's worth, his ORtg, DRtg and differentials:
04-05 BOS 108 / 104 / 4
05-06 BOS 104 / 103 / 1
06-07 BOS 109 / 103 / 6
07-08 MIN 109 / 108 / 1
08-09 MIN 109 / 108 / 1
09-10 MIN 106 / 108 / -2
10-11 UTA 111 / 108 / 3
11-12 UTA 112 / 103 / 9
I'm not going to go overboard here, and just going off efficiency ratings is a lazy and flawed methodology, but what's there matches the eye test for me. If I were a Jazz fan I'd be looking forward to having him on my team for years to come.
Jefferson (and the Jefferson/Millsap pair particularly) represent the other end of the point that often comes up about the higher relative value of good big defense: you can hide a poor defender more easily on the perimeter than in the paint. Jefferson doesn't just do a poor job of stopping his guy, he also makes it hard for a lot of the rest of a defensive scheme to work effectively. Put an all-NBA defender 4/5 next to him and you can minimize that, but there aren't a ton of those guys around, you're in trouble without one, and that limitation handcuffs you in terms of roster construction. In terms of our draft conversation, I think that fact alone is more than enough to keep him down on the third tier, even with his offensive efficiency.
This is a separate issue and borders on letting aesthestics influence value assessments but... it's not just that the lack of defense costs you, is that this kind of player can be really expensive relative to what you get - the opportunity cost is high once you get past the rookie deal.
* well, that's not true - he's been a fair number of bad teams. He hasn't been far above league average more often than not. IMO.
EDIT: just testing the beta site
I think the first question is pretty boring and mostly just a function of figuring out who's been best. The second question is more interesting to me.
I think it goes:
1. Howard
2. Livingston
3. Deng
4. Iggy
5. Varaejao
I think you could make a pretty decent case for Big Al at 4 or 5, depending on what kind of team you were. On the Spurs, for instance, I think Al Jefferson could have developed differently.
Livingston definitely lower than 2. He was never that, that great. Was he magically going to learn how to shoot or draw contact? I probably rank Iggy over Deng as well.
I couldn't figure out who this was before looking it up and, well, damn, DeMarre Carroll is an NBA player. Who knew.
Yeah, okay. I looked at his numbers again. I still put him around 5.
I disagree, but your version is as plausible as mine.
I think you could go either way with this. I feel like Deng had more upside at the beginning of his career.
I still hope the Jazz trade him, though. Favors needs to start and I like Millsap paired with him more -- this is contingent on acquiring a good wing otherwise keeping Jefferson and going big with Millsap at the 3 might be the best option.
I can't decide if this is an insult or a compliment to Jefferson.
This game's version of Rondo was still worse than LeBron this year.
LeBron was really, really, really good this year.
Predictable though. It was a Celtics fan who said he would be looking forward to them getting all the calls so the NBA wouldn't have a sweep.
That non-call on the James breakaway actually didn't affect the scoreboard, as if they call it the Heat just take the ball in from the side anyway. But it was especially frustrating because it was so extremely obvious. James slowed down because he knew he was fouled. The Celtic (Pietrus I think) quite clearly wanted to foul.
Pierce getting a 3 point play after taking about 5 hops around his defender hurt worse.
If there's any justice Garnett will get a game 4 suspension for throwing his elbow.
Oh, I'm aware. On merit nobody else was close, or even has the ability to be close. I just love me some playoff Rondo.
You mean for fighting for possession, hands on the ball, after getting fouled twice?
Edit: I don't mean to troll the thread. That was just a particularly bad tech call from my pov.
They were in the bonus, and didn't end up scoring on the possession. But the way LeBron is shooting free throws, maybe they wouldn't have anyways. And I agree - Pietrus was trying to foul, which was ridiculous.
The Heat shot 381 more FTs than the Celtics this season. The Celtics took 6 more FTs than the Heat tonight. I call BS, as would anyone who watched the game, but you know what? THIS is why you want home court advantage. Home cookin' exists, and Miami's gotten all sorts of whistles (and non-whistles) this postseason. This is why you want HCA, because this is what happens when you play at home.
And Chalmers will spend next season in the Premier League for that flop. He wasn't event *touched*.
Predictable game 3 win for the Celtics. If you'd asked me prior to game 1 how the series would go (from a Celtics perspective), I would have answered "LLWLL". I'm not getting excited until I see what happens in game 4. At least Rondo didn't dislocate his elbow this year.
Love to see the Laker fans talking about how the Celtics got all the calls tonight, yet denying that the Celtics didn't get calls in game 2. And by "the Laker fans" I mean "Anaheim Rallymonkey of Maryland".
This is why you want HCA, because this is what happens when you play at home.
Sad but true, Hombre. Sad but true.
... Almost equally.
I understand why so many of you despise him, but man will I miss that guy when he's gone.
I don't think it happens EVERY time there's a home game, but as we discussed last thread, it does seem to happen all the damn time when a team goes home down 2-0.
Game 3 is always the toughest game to win in a sweep. I should do a study or something, but I'd guess that some ridiculous percentage (50%+) of 5 game series have the lone win in game 3.
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