I don't think Bagwell is being kept out only because steroid suspicions. He did not have a long career, and did not hit any career milestones. We all think that's asinine reasoning but baseball card numbers matter to voters.

Well, Lofton is no gimme -- and Bernie is probably not a Hall of Fame -- but Lofton, at least, I think deserves a lot more than being a one-and-done afterthought discussion.... which is what he turned into.

Put him back on next year's ballot and he gets, what, 1.3 percent. You can give these guys all the looks at Kenny they want, and he's never going to look like a HoFer to them.

The only effect the presence of Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams on future ballots will have is take votes from guys with a chance to get inducted.

Was there any change to the voting process after no one was elected in 96?

The 1996 blank ballot was more understandable. The ballot was nowhere near as strong as the one we just saw.

A shame, but not the end of the world. A small silver lining in the announced vote result is the fact that there were only five blank ballots submitted. We saw all of those as part of the Gizmo, so there was no "silent minority" out there depriving anyone of admission. While I still think it would be good to close the loophole, we were at least spared from a widespread demonstration of meta-moralism.

101 individual writer ballots.

-- MWE

Predictions on whether/how the HOF will respond?

It'll survive, just like it survived the other seven elections without anyone getting in, and next year there'll be enough inductees to satisfy them. As usual, you seem to conflate your own subjective opinions with the rest of the world's, and then blame the rest of the world for the discrepancy.

You mean the Hall's president.

Thanks - fixed now.

I don't think Bagwell is being kept out only because steroid suspicions. He did not have a long career, and did not hit any career milestones. We all think that's asinine reasoning but baseball card numbers matter to voters.

Agreed. You have people who think that even ignoring roids, that McGwire is not a hofer.

A small silver lining in the announced vote result is the fact that there were only five blank ballot submitted. We saw all of those as part of the Gizmo, so there was no "silent minority" out there depriving anyone of admission.

Which makes sense. No point in grandstanding if no one is going to look at you.

SoSH, I owe you a bb-r sponsorship (see post #111). Name your player (up to $20) and the message, and I'll get it done.

Voting breakdown. Indicates votes received, percentage, and years on ballot:

Craig Biggio 388 (68.2%) 1
Jack Morris 385 (67.7%) 14
Jeff Bagwell 339 (59.6%) 3
Mike Piazza 329 (57.8%) 1
Tim Raines 297 (52.2%) 6
Lee Smith 272 (47.8%) 11
Curt Schilling 221 (38.8%) 1
Roger Clemens 214 (37.6%) 1
Barry Bonds 206 (36.2%) 1
Edgar Martinez 204 (35.9%) 4
Alan Trammell 191 (33.6%) 12
Larry Walker 123 (21.6%) 3
Fred McGriff 118 (20.7%) 4
Dale Murphy 106 (18.6%) 15
Mark McGwire 96 (16.9%) 7
Don Mattingly 75 (13.2%) 13
Sammy Sosa 71 (12.5%) 1
Rafael Palmeiro 50 (8.8%) 3
Bernie Williams 19 (3.3%) 2
Kenny Lofton 18 (3.2%) 1
Sandy Alomar Jr.16 (2.8%) 1
Julio Franco 6 (1.1%) 1
David Wells 5 (0.9%) 1
Steve Finley 4 (0.7%) 1
Shawn Green 2 (0.4%) 1
Aaron Sele 1 (0.2%) 1
Jeff Cirillo 0 (0%) 1
Royce Clayton 0 (0%) 1
Jeff Conine 0 (0%) 1
Roberto Hernande0 (0%) 1
Ryan Klesko 0 (0%) 1
Jose Mesa 0 (0%) 1
Reggie Sanders 0 (0%) 1
Mike Stanton 0 (0%) 1
Todd Walker 0 (0%) 1
Rondell White 0 (0%) 1
Woody Williams 0 (0%) 1

Some thoughts:

--who's the raving dimwit who wasted a vote on Aaron Sele given the competitiveness of the ballot? And Sandy Alomar, Jr. got 16 votes, just two less than Kenny Lofton?
--too bad Kenny Lofton dropped off on a one-and-done.
--Jack Morris only gained three votes over last year, increasing his % slightly.
--Jeff Bagwell picked up 18 votes and increased his % a little bit.
--Lee Smith lost 18 votes over last year and dropped below 50%.
--Tim Raines picked up 18 votes and got over the 50% margin.
--Don Mattingly lost 27 votes and dropped about 4%.
--Dale Murphy picked up 23 votes in his final year eligible, though his % stayed about the same from last year.
--Most other players from Palmeiro and above lost a few votes but might be seen as more or less holding ground given the tough competition. Was actually thinking Palmeiro might drop off the ballot, but he didn't.

Are they still going to have that special TV show with interviews with the inductees? Is Shirley MacLaine available?

That's the best comment in this entire thread.

I would be very surprised if that would produce substantially different results.

That may or may not be the case...but at least it would not all be on the BBWAA

Time to bring back the run-off election.

YTY movement

Murphy +4% (If Morris gets that magnitude of a final year bump he's not making it)
Raines +3.5% (Can we focus the protest votes in a positive direction?)
Bagwell +3.5% (thought Biggio would give him a bigger bump)
Morris +1%
Edgar -0.5%
Walker -1%
McGwire -2.5%
LSmith -3%
Trammell -3%
McGriff -3%
Palmeiro -4%
Mattingly -4.5%
BWilliams -6.5%

All right people- I'm calling it. SABRPALOOZA 2013 at Cooperstown, Induction Weekend. We get as many people as we can to go up there, crash Deacon White's induction ceremony, and protest the BBWAA's handling of the Hall of Fame voting and demand reform. It's a massive publicity opportunity because the media will have nothing else to cover.

I don't think Bagwell is being kept out only because steroid suspicions. He did not have a long career, and did not hit any career milestones. We all think that's asinine reasoning but baseball card numbers matter to voters.

Bagwell's vote has improved every year he's been on the ballot. Compare Bagwell and other recent deserving but milestone-low Hall of Famers.

51.6 - 62.1 - 86.4 - Larkin
49.2 - 61.1 - 76.2 - Sandberg
41.7 - 56.0 - 59.6 - Bagwell

Bagwell started a bit lower, but he didn't see a second surge this year like Larkin and Sandberg did. This is probably partly a factor of the steroid ceiling - some voters are expressly avoiding Bagwell for non-baseball reasons, and partly a factor of the ballotpocalypse.

For another comparison, see Gary Carter. He started right where Bags did, but a minor ballot disaster in his second year (the 1999 Brett/Yount/Ryan/Fisk class) held him back for a year.

42.3 - 33.8 - 49.7 - 64.9 - 72.7 - 78.0 - Carter

I wouldn't be particularly surprised to see Bagwell follow something like that path to induction.

The only silver lining I see is that Tim Raines looks pretty solid -- 9 years left and he seem to well and safely past 50%.

What on earth to do next year?

Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Tom Glavine
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Mark McGwire
Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell

I guess is what I would do. But that leaves all kinds of great people out in the cold.

All right people- I'm calling it. SABRPALOOZA 2013 at Cooperstown, Induction Weekend. We get as many people to go up there, crash Deacon White's induction ceremony, and protest the BBWAA's handling of the Hall of Fame voting and demand reform. It's a massive publicity opportunity because the media will have nothing else to cover.

I still think we ought to have a BTF fundraiser to bribe a Deacon White relative to allow us to author the speech for him/her... think of the fun ("So is this pronounced "chass" or "chase"?).

We could even often silver-gold-platinum levels for donations -- platinum gets your nom de primer inserted somewhere into the speech, gold lets you pick a sportswriter to make fun of, etc...

66 is kind of a great idea if we tipped some SABR friendly journalists ahead of time.

Well, Lofton is no gimme -- and Bernie is probably not a Hall of Fame -- but Lofton, at least, I think deserves a lot more than being a one-and-done afterthought discussion.... which is what he turned into.

Neither are irretrievable, since they can still get in on a future date via Veteran's Committee or whatever.

Nice job BWAA, I assume you are going to return all the paychecks and royalties accumulated for all the articles and books written about how 1998 "saved" baseball too.

66 is kind of a great idea if we tipped some SABR friendly journalists ahead of time

The only problem is that we would actually have to go to Cooperstown.

Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Tom Glavine
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Mark McGwire
Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell

I guess the silver lining of such a ludicrous ballot is that the decisions are more interesting. Was Tom Glavine better than Alan Trammell? Was Tim Raines better than Jeff Bagwell? Damned if I know, but it sounds like more fun to figure out that kind of stuff than it is to just check yes/no on each person.

Costas is absolutely right in stating that we're going to have to wait a year to see what Bonds's and Clemens's real chances are. Right now they both start with about, what, 12% or 13% more than McGwire did, or about 20% more than he has now. That 20% difference suggests the hardcore of "steroids discounters", while the other 63%-64% represent the "steroid blackballers".

OTOH it's also true that while Bonds and Clemens are starting very low, this is also, as is being pointed out, a gradual process that still has 14 more years before anything's "final". But Costas also made the point that if Bonds and Clemens don't rise significantly next year, it may be that they're never going to get in. I think he's right about that, but it also depends on what he means by "significantly". I think if they jump up to 55% or so next year, that'll be enough to give them momentum and a bit of the bandwagoning effect, but if they're still below 45%, then I can't see anything other than a mass poisoning of the BBWAA annual dinner will ever do them much good.

At this point I'm amused zt the Greg Maddux is a lock for induction so no worries folks type thinking. He very well could end up with something like 72% of the vote and no one gets inducted again.

How big of a final year bump did Rice get?

All right people- I'm calling it. SABRPALOOZA 2013 at Cooperstown, Induction Weekend. We get as many people to go up there, crash Deacon White's induction ceremony, and protest the BBWAA's handling of the Hall of Fame voting and demand reform. It's a massive publicity opportunity because the media will have nothing else to cover.

Turns out I will be in central NY on 7/28. I might just have to do this.

What on earth to do next year?

I'm pretty sure we'll see some names (Palmiero, maybe Sosa and McGwire) dropping off of the ballot. Dale Murphy is the only name dropping off for next year, doubt that helps anyone though.

But Costas also made the point that if Bonds and Clemens don't rise significantly next year, it may be that they're never going to get in.

Never is a really long time and all but 14 years is also pretty long. Very very hard for a somewhat changing group of people to hold a grudge that long as we have seen in past HoF voting.

Maddux
Clemens
Bonds
Piazza
Glavine
Schilling
Mussina
Bagwell
Trammell
Raines

I think that's what I'd do. Frank Thomas can wait. Biggio doesn't make the cut. Neither one needs my vote, they'll do fine with the witch hunters.

Dale Murphy is the only name dropping off for next year

+Bernie

How big of a final year bump did Rice get?

Four percentage points. (Same as Murphy this year.) Rice's last five ballots:

59.5 - 64.8 - 63.5 - 72.2 - 76.4

Morris will need more than that, in a tougher context. I'd bet against it.

Sadly, I also think Morris is a practical lock for Vet Committee enshrinement in another five years or so.

The SABR convention in 2013 will kick off on the 31st of July in Philadelphia while the HoF Induction is on the 28th. So really if anyone was planning to travel to Philly for SABR they might as well take a trip up to Cooperstown.

I guess the silver lining of such a ludicrous ballot is that the decisions are more interesting. Was Tom Glavine better than Alan Trammell? Was Tim Raines better than Jeff Bagwell? Damned if I know, but it sounds like more fun to figure out that kind of stuff than it is to just check yes/no on each person.

I imagine that if I had a vote for next year, that I would take tactical voting pretty seriously. I would of course still vote for the guys who I think are going to go in (Maddux, Biggio, Thomas and maybe Glavine) but with the remaining votes, I would look at voting to keep someone on the ballot (McGwire, Kent etc) or to vote to strengthen a deserving candidate who's induction could be speeded up by a surge(Raines most notably). You wouldn't be locked into voting for the 10 best candidates.

All right people- I'm calling it. SABRPALOOZA 2013 at Cooperstown, Induction Weekend. We get as many people to go up there, crash Deacon White's induction ceremony, and protest the BBWAA's handling of the Hall of Fame voting and demand reform. It's a massive publicity opportunity because the media will have nothing else to cover.

Sounds great. We should see if one of Pigasus's descendant's is available for the occasion. Maybe zonk can check around the Chicago area, where I hear the original Pigaus knocked up half the remaining stockyards population during the 1968 Democratic convention.

I think this was Kenny Lofton's major problem. He basically is a poor man's Tim Raines, and Tim Raines is still not in the HOF. Of course I think Tim Raines should be in the Hall, but he gets the poor man's Rickey Henderson argument despite the fact the argument is like saying Albert Pujol's is a poor man's Babe Ruth.

Jesus, that is going to be a crazy ballot. First draft...

You gotta have Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Piazza, Bagwell, Thomas. That's six. You basically also have to have Schilling, Glavine, Mussina, Biggio. That's 10. And no Trammell, Walker, Martinez, McGwire, Palmeiro, Raines. Good freaking God.

The real reform the BBWAA is to simply have more stringent requirements for who gets to vote --

I can actually live with the occasional cheerios pee'ers like Chass - disagree with him plenty, but whatever...

It's really the guys who still get ballots - I'm thinking of people like Simmons, who don't even like baseball... guys who get ballots because they covered baseball years and years ago, but probably haven't paid the game any mind in 20 years or more.

It takes 3 Posnanskis or Davidsons to overcome just one of those knuckleheads.

At this point I'm amused zt the Greg Maddux is a lock for induction so no worries folks type thinking. He very well could end up with something like 72% of the vote and no one gets inducted again.

Greg Maddux is a lock for induction. I'd be happy to wager on this with anyone.

And, if you're not as honest as Kurt, there's a damn good chance I won't remember making said wager.

But Costas also made the point that if Bonds and Clemens don't rise significantly next year, it may be that they're never going to get in.

Never is a really long time and all but 14 years is also pretty long. Very very hard for a somewhat changing group of people to hold a grudge that long as we have seen in past HoF voting.

As I said, I think it will depend on how much their total rises next year. Right now they've each barely got half the votes they'll need for induction, and that's a lot of minds to change, especially considering they've already won the votes of most of the "steroids discounters" who voted for them but not McGwire.

maddux and biggio next year? i do think biggio will get an increase. i think he got a lot of "not a first ballot guy" denials. maddux will still get in. i would think it would be a 98% vote but given this it might be less.

glavine and thomas are sure looking like 65-70% about now. piazza will be all about his book i guess. bagwell? who knows. morris? who knows.

i'd say kent is going to debut around 20% and mussina should be about 5-10% ahead of schilling, wherever they end up because that 30-50 range is going to be really fluid next year. kent would be as high as 40% in a less crowded or stigmatized year.

smith, walker, mcgriff, mattingly are all going to drop pretty heavily next year i think. their supporters are not near as hardcore as raffy and sosa's, or the other candidates like trammell and raines. i think all those guys could fall off except smith. martinez may even be in jeopardy, but i think he'll stay on.

next year there are some really quality players who are certain not to hit 5% too. luis gonzalez, nomo, foulke. gagne, matt morris, durham. all those guys won't make it past year 1.

Great listening to WFAN and WEPN in New York. And there are still people talking about the Jets coaching staff and GM openings.

"We remain pleased with their role in evaluating candidates based on the criteria we provide.”


Ugh. We'll see how pleased he is - and perhaps more importantly, how happy all the local businesses in Cooperstown are - with the crowd, or lack of it, at the induction ceremony this year.

I don't see this as him promising no changes. He said they are pleased with the BBWAA's role in evaluating candidates based on the criteria we provide. He doesn't say they won't change the criteria.

Now, they may _not_ change, but I don't see this as him saying much of anything. What else was he supposed to say? "The writers are twits"?

Noting I really screwed the 80s guys. I wonder if you need to adjust for the greater variance in performance in the sillyball era. I'll definitely need to consider Trammell and Raines against Mussina and Biggio. I don't see much likelihood they can beat out Schilling or Glavine.

I think this was Kenny Lofton's major problem. He basically is a poor man's Tim Raines, and Tim Raines is still not in the HOF. Of course I think Tim Raines should be in the Hall, but he gets the poor man's Rickey Henderson argument despite the fact the argument is like saying Albert Pujol's is a poor man's Babe Ruth.

I think that the viewpoint is right, but it's a wrong comparison. Raines is a poor man's Rickey Henderson, corner outfielder, good obp, decent power, average(at best) defensively. Lofton is a gold glove caliber centerfielder, it's not really fair to compare him to Raines and Rickey, just because he also led off.

I know that people see him as you pointed out, but it's an incorrect comparison.

It'll survive, just like it survived the other seven elections without anyone getting in,

But even you would admit, Andy, that this shutout is different from past shutouts.

Sounds great. We should see if one of Pigasus's descendant's is available for the occasion. Maybe zonk can check around the Chicago area, where I hear the original Pigaus knocked up half the remaining stockyards population during the 1968 Democratic convention.

Sadly, Pigasus was devoured as a mid-morning ham sandwich by J. when McGovern tossed him out of the '72 convention...

You gotta have... Biggio

I disagree. I don't see him as one of the 10 best players available.