Lynn is probably getting bumped out of my top slot by Mike Schmidt

There are a lot of good candidates at the top of the ballot: Lynn, Hernandez, Winfield, Brett, Schmidt, Niekro again... Not Willie Stargell though. Wow, was that a narrative/career achievement vote by the BBWAA.

I think that one of the roots of the Stargell MVP vote was that the writers were looking for excuses not to vote for Dave Parker.

This was the "We Are Family" team of the Stargell Stars. Stargell's co-MVP was all about narrative.

The Pirates lost 9 of their first 10, then Stargell put the team on his back and more or less carried them back into the race, with key hits all over the place. By the end of July Stargell was hitting .317/.371/.631 and the Pirates were breathing down the necks of the Expos. Then a funny thing happened: Stargell stopped hitting. From August 1 through September 24 Stargell hit .235/.337/.423, but the Pirates didn't fade out of the race. After a doubleheader split with Montreal on the 24th (in the second game of which the bullpen blew a 6-3 lead) the Pirates were still a half-game out with six games left. On the 25th the Bucs sent Jim Rooker against Scott Sanderson. Stargell was the entire offense for five innings, hitting a pair of homers to give the Bucs leads of 2-0 and 3-2. Stargell then drew a 2-out walk in the 5th which ignited a three-run rally that put the Pirates into the lead for good - and back into first place for good. In the final game against the Cubs Stargell drove in the first run with a sacrifice fly, homered to give the Bucs a 3-0 lead in the 5th, and then with two on and two out in the 7th, with Dick Tidrow pitching, the Cubs opted to give Stargell a free pass that was following by a two-run single off the bat of Bill Robinson to lock down the NL East title.

I don't think people were looking for reasons to avoid voting for Parker. Parker picked up the slack when Stargell cooled off in August, but a lot of his best games occurred in losses and he wasn't in the story as much as he'd been a year earlier. The story of the season was mostly Stargell and the three-headed Tekulve/Jackson/Romo bullpen.

-- MWE

Just finished looking at the position players for 1979 so I though I would put together my All star team: a few of whom will be no where near being on the ballot
C Porter
1B Hernandez
2b Lopes or Randolph (toss a coin)
3B Brett
SS Concepcion
RF Winfield
CF Lynn
LF (a bit of a surprise to me) Wilson

At least as far as position players go, I think Lynn is probably the class of the field

Lynn's season in 1979 was tremendous.

LF (a bit of a surprise to me) Wilson

Jim Rice and Jose Cruz were both better than Willie Wilson in 1979.

SS Concepcion

Smalley and Templeton each may have been better than Concepcion that year.

I can start with my All-Star Team

C Porter
1B Hernandez
2B Grich
SS Templeton
3B Schmidt
LF Rice (but Parker and Singleton were better OF)
CF Lynn
RF Winfield

P Eckersley, Guidry, Koosman, Niekro

I agree, by the way, that Stargell belongs nowhere near this ballot. Not even with postseason credit.

-- MWE

After looking at DL's all star team, I checked my list and noticed that I missed both Molitor and Grich on my list of 2B. Molitor actually comes out slightly ahead of Grich for me so he would be my all star 2B.

A lot of Wilson's value is derived from his fielding so depending on how you view fielding numbers, he could easily be lower on the list.

I would probably agree that Templeton is a better choice than Concepcion at shortstop. I had only looked at his TZ fielding numbers but when you average in the DRA values, his fielding value take a dramatic jump. Smalley was good offensively, but was not in he same class of fielder as the the other two.

1979 prelim

1) Mike Schmidt - very good defense
2) Darrell Porter - C bonus
3) Fred Lynn - easily the top CF but less value above positional average than Schmidt
4) Dave Winfield
5) Dennis Eckersley - my top pitcher of the year
6) Keith Hernandez
7) Garry Templeton
8) Gene Tenace - C bonus again, might be too high
9) George Brett
10) Dave Concepcion
11) Ron Guidry
12) Ron Cey
13) Dave Parker

14-20) Jerry Koosman, Bobby Grich, Roy Smalley, Phil Niekro, Ken Singleton, Paul Molitor, Brian Downing

I agree, by the way, that Stargell belongs nowhere near this ballot.

This was the year of the co-MVP award, the tie between Stargell and Hernandez. Hernandez does belong "somewhere near the ballot", although you will see various opinions above as to exactly where. For the BBWAA, I have to think that the case for Hernandez was about 90% batting average. For us, we'll look at Hernandez and see OBP and defense. But then thinking about OBP and defense also gets us thinking about Schmidt, and Schmidt had more power. Schmidt finished 13th in the actual NL MVP vote. It was that hard (especially at that time) to wrap heads around the notion that a .253 hitter could be as valuable on offense as a .344 hitter.

Winfield was third in that vote, behind Hernandez and Stargell, followed by Larry Parrish and Ray Knight (because they hit .300) followed Joe Niekro (because he was 21-11), followed by two relief pitchers.

But then thinking about OBP and defense also gets us thinking about Schmidt, and Schmidt had more power. Schmidt finished 13th in the actual NL MVP vote. It was that hard (especially at that time) to wrap heads around the notion that a .253 hitter could be as valuable on offense as a .344 hitter.

And yet Michael Jack finished third in the MVP voting three years earlier with stats that weren't all that dissimilar to what he did in 1979, although not quite on that level. The difference is that the Phillies, after three consecutive division titles, collapsed to fourth in the division in 1979 and got Danny Ozark fired. In that context, Schmidt was pretty lucky to finish 13th. The Cardinals, on the other hand, went from 69-93 in 1978 to 86-76 in 1979, and Hernandez was the face of that visible improvement. Of course, order was restored a year later as the Phillies won it all with Schmidt getting the MVP, and the Cardinals falling back to 74 wins and getting Ken Boyer fired and Whitey Herzog hired. Hernandez saw his numbers drop a little, and managed to finish 11th in the MVP vote.

The bottom line here is that it was still important to play a key role (a) on a winner or (b) on a surprise team, and still costly to play on a disappointing team.

-- MWE

The Cardinals of the late 70's were a strange team. There was a lot of obvious talent there, headlined by Simmons and Hernandez. Templeton broke in in spectacular fashion and looked like he'd be a star in the long run. But the team often had rather disappointing results. (As MWE suggests, 1979 was better than most.) Yeah, it might have been nice to have kept Jose Cruz, and believing that Ken Reitz was a star was not helpful.

Here's what I'm thinking so far.

1 - Fred Lynn
2 - George Brett
3 - Dave Winfield
4 - Mike Schmidt
5 - Keith Hernandez
6 - Dave Parker
7 - Darell Porter
8 - Ken Singleton
9 - Don Baylor
10 - Bobby Grich
11 - Dennis Eckersley
12 - Jerry Koosman
13 - Larry Parrish

A lot of what was wrong with the Cardinals in the 1970s had to do with the managers. They started the decade with Red Schoendienst, who was a very passive manager (as you probably all know from the previous times I've mentioned this). Bob Gibson and other players had provided the push and discipline when they won their two pennants, but Gibson faded fast in the early 1970s. Without that clubhouse leader, and with a crop of new young stars coming in, Red lost control of the team, whose leaders became the very young Ted Simmons and Keith Hernandez, neither of whom was very good at that task. Gussie Busch (the owner) and his GMs finally figured out what was wrong, and brought in their AAA manager, Vern Rapp, known for his discipline and control over minor league players. But Rapp had never been in the major leagues in any capacity before, and insisted on treating major league stars the same as he had treated them when they were kids in the minors, learning skills, and in need of teaching. This produced massive clubhouse revolt, and Rapp was gone. They replaced him with Ken Boyer, who was, well, not quite as passive as Schoendienst, but was, essentially, Bob Lemon to Rapp's Billy Martin. He lost control of the club in about a year, and Gussie turned to Whitey Herzog, who was up to the task of managing a difficult major league club without treating them as if they were still in the minors. Frustrated by this, and seeing the waste of talent, I had actually drifted away from baseball fandom by the late 1970s, but Don Malcolm brought me back by telling me that I MUST go get this book called The 1981 Bill James Baseball Abstract. - Brock Hanke

And yet Michael Jack finished third in the MVP voting three years earlier with stats that weren't all that dissimilar to what he did in 1979

Yes, but his team won their division in 1976 and were in the post season for the first time since 1950. MVP voters seem to care about how the player's team did.

MVP voters seem to care about how the player's team did.

Yeah, it's one of the reasons they do a bad job at determining the best player. They look at the good teams and vote for the guy that hit cleanup. Players on bad teams have to work really hard to get noticed, especially if they play an up the middle position.

On July 30th Schmidt had a .280/.406/.646 line with 36 home runs, which (IIRC) was an NL record at the time for most homers before August. He then proceeded to hit under .200 the rest of the season as the Phils remained irrelevant. In other words, in 1980 he was able to sustain his April-July 1979 production level over the entire year.

MVP voters don't believe their job is to determine the best player, but the most valuable - and there is some value added in propelling a team into a postseason spot or into a race for a postseason spot. Not as much as the voters believe, of course, but all else being equal, or close to equal, there's reason to prefer a player who does it for a 90-win team over one who does it for a .500 team.

None of that should apply here, obviously.

-- MWE

None of that should apply here, obviously.

I don't agree with that. There's more "merit" in coming through when it means something than in having great stats when there's nothing on the line.

There are voters that take things like WPA into account and I give credit for postseason performance. I don't think anyone here thinks a player's performance is irrelevant if his team doesn't make the postseason. I also don't see how hitting a double or catching a ball has more merit if your team's pitching staff is really good. The whole goal of this project is to recognize the player who had the best season. In that regard, every game means something.

Here's the relevant snippet of the rules:

"Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only."

I also don't see how hitting a double or catching a ball has more merit if your team's pitching staff is really good. The whole goal of this project is to recognize the player who had the best season. In that regard, every game means something.

Have you ever been under pressure in a big spot concerning sports?

I have, as an umpire, and I can tell you, it's much harder to to a good job working the plate in a county final with 2000 fans there than it is to do a good job in a March scrimmage.

If you don't think that some guys choke under pressure, you haven't been in the pit.

Look at Barry Bonds post season at bats with the Pirates and tell me whether or not his psyche was making him perform badly, or are you gonna claim that it was just random chance that he slugged .265 over those 20 games?

Of course every game means something, but if it's close between 2 players, for me, the guy who was under pressure gets the edge. Yaz in 1967 for instance, check out what he did over the last week of that season.

or are you gonna claim that it was just random chance that he slugged .265 over those 20 games?

Random chance.

Random chance.

Go back and watch those at bats. He was clearly pressing.

Did you ever play sports at any level above Little League?

some guys choke under pressure

Yeah, and slugging .265 isn't going to get rewarded. If a player can't handle performing under pressure he generally can't even make it to the majors, let alone have a season that would be worthy of MMP consideration.

Yeah, and slugging .265 isn't going to get rewarded. If a player can't handle performing under pressure he generally can't even make it to the majors, let alone have a season that would be worthy of MMP consideration.

There's different levels of pressure.

Playof games just have a totally different feel to them.....for both players AND umpires.

There was a great special on about the umpires from this year's world series, on the MLB network. Check it out if it comes on again.

These players are not Strat-O-Matic cards where everything is always as random as a roll of the dice.

1979 Prelim Ballot

1. Fred Lynn, CF, Boston Red Sox: #1 in OPS+ and Runs Created, +10 fielding runs
2. George Brett, 3B, Kansas City Royals: 148 OPS+ and +16 fielding runs
3. Darrell Porter, C, Kansas City Royals: 142 OPS+ and 119 runs created as catcher; 15 games at DH drop him below Royals teammate Brett
4. Dave Winfield, RF, San Diego Padres: #1 in OPS+ and #2 in Runs Created in NL
5. Mike Schmidt, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies: 154 OPS+ and +7 fielding runs
6. Keith Hernandez, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: 151 OPS+ and 135 Runs Created
7. Jim Rice, RF, Boston Red Sox: Another solid season with a 154 OPS+ and 138 Runs Created
8. Phil Niekro, P, Atlanta Braves: the top pitcher in either league thanks to 342 innings pitched
9. Bobby Grich, 2B, California Angels: 145 OPS+ while playing up-the-middle position
10. Ken Singleton, RF, Baltimore Orioles: 155 OPS+ and 127 Runs Created
11. J. R. Richard, P, Houston Astros: best combination of rate and bulk (130 ERA+ in 292 innings)
12. Tommy John, P, New York Yankees: best combination of rate and bulk in the AL (137 ERA+ in 276 innings)
13. Jim Kern, RP, Texas Rangers: didn't see this one coming; Sutter had the Cy Young year but Kern had the better relief season with a 1.57 ERA (264 ERA+) in 143 innings

14. Dave Parker, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates: the Cobra just misses this year's ballot
15. Sixto Lezcano, RF, Milwaukee Brewers: essentially tied with Parker for 14th
16. Dennis Eckersley, P, Boston Red Sox: another '78 ballotee who falls a little short this year
17. Gary Carter, C, Montreal Expos
18. Ron Guidry, P, New York Yankees: see Eck
19. Mike Flanagan, P, Baltimore Orioles
20. Gene Tenace, C/1B, San Diego Padres

13. Jim Kern, RP, Texas Rangers: didn't see this one coming; Sutter had the Cy Young year but Kern had the better relief season with a 1.57 ERA (264 ERA+) in 143 innings

Kern was awesome that year. He almost made my list.

IIRC, Fred Lynn worked out with weight machines, nautilus or cybex, I forget which, in the offseason before the 1979 season, had probably his best season and then didn't do the same workouts before the 1980 season. Fred Lynn, ladies and gentlemen.

Here's my favorite records from 1979:

1 ¦ We Were Both Wrong ¦ Dave Edmunds
2 ¦ The Walk ¦ Inmates
3 ¦ Madness ¦ Madness
4 ¦ What I Like About You ¦ Romantics
5 ¦ Cool For Cats ¦ Squeeze
6 ¦ Back Of My Hand ¦ Jags
7 ¦ Rapper's Delight ¦ Sugarhill Gang
8 ¦ Rock Billy Boogie ¦ Robert Gordon
9 ¦ Train In Vain (Stand By Me) ¦ Clash
10 ¦ Straight Lines ¦ New Musik
11 ¦ Born To Be Alive ¦ Patrick Hernandez
12 ¦ Dirty Water ¦ Inmates
13 ¦ London Calling ¦ Clash
14 ¦ Video Killed The Radio Star ¦ Buggles
15 ¦ Crazy Little Thing Called Love ¦ Queen
16 ¦ Hot Stuff ¦ Donna Summer
17 ¦ Rock And Roll High School ¦ Ramones
18 ¦ Cracking Up ¦ Nick Lowe
19 ¦ Black Slacks ¦ Robert Gordon
20 ¦ Good Timin' ¦ Beach Boys
21 ¦ Life During Wartime ¦ Talking Heads
22 ¦ Bad Case Of Loving You (Doctor, Doctor) ¦ Robert Palmer
23 ¦ One Step Beyond ¦ Madness
24 ¦ Another Brick In The Wall (Part 2) ¦ Pink Floyd
25 ¦ Working My Way Back To You/Forgive Me, Girl ¦ Spinners
26 ¦ Cruel To Be Kind ¦ Nick Lowe
27 ¦ Don't Bring Me Down ¦ ELO
28 ¦ On The Radio ¦ Donna Summer
29 ¦ Refugee ¦ Tom Petty & Heartbreakers
30 ¦ Brass In Pocket ¦ Pretenders
31 ¦ I Do The Rock ¦ Tim Curry
32 ¦ Let's Go ¦ Cars
33 ¦ You Can't Change That ¦ Raydio
34 ¦ Don't Stop 'Til You Get Enough ¦ Michael Jackson
35 ¦ Ladies Night ¦ Kool & the Gang
36 ¦ Low Budget ¦ Kinks
37 ¦ Heartache Tonight ¦ Eagles
38 ¦ A Message To You Rudy ¦ Specials
39 ¦ Dance The Night Away ¦ Van Halen
40 ¦ One Way Ticket ¦ Eddie Bond
41 ¦ Girls Talk ¦ Dave Edmunds
42 ¦ Crawling From The Wreckage ¦ Dave Edmunds
43 ¦ My Sharona ¦ Knack
44 ¦ I'm The Man ¦ Joe Jackson
45 ¦ Rock Around The Clock ¦ Sex Pistols
46 ¦ (Wish I Could Fly Like) Superman ¦ Kinks
47 ¦ Rockin' My Life Away ¦ Jerry Lee Lewis
48 ¦ Pop Muzik ¦ M
49 ¦ Cars ¦ Gary Numan
50 ¦ Money ¦ Flying Lizards
51 ¦ Good Times ¦ Chic
52 ¦ Heaven Must Have Sent You ¦ Bonnie Pointer
53 ¦ Is She Really Going Out With Him ¦ Joe Jackson
54 ¦ I Got You ¦ Split Enz
55 ¦ Queen Of Hearts ¦ Dave Edmunds
56 ¦ Making Plans For Nigel ¦ XTC
57 ¦ Reasons To Be Cheerful (Part 3) ¦ Ian Dury & Blockheads

Some interesting songs on that list, Savoy. Quick note though: the unofficial policy is to hold off on the annual music discussions until that year's ballot thread is open.

Thanks Chris. We try to keep it on topic until we start voting.

BTW - the 2012 thread is open to music discussion but there have been no takers

1979 Preliminary

WAR framework, with a higher baseline replacement level than "normal", resulting in a reduction in replacement wins (Wins Above Reduced Replacement). All fielding numbers used are an average of TZ and DRA.

1. Fred Lynn 7.95 WARR
2. George Brett 7.80 WARR
3. Dave Winfield 7.65 WARR
4. Mike Schmidt 7.35 WARR
5. Keith Hernandez 7.2 WARR
6. Darrell Porter 6.85 WARR
7. Phil Niekro 6.5 WARR
8. Dennis Eckersley 6.3 WARR
9. Jerry Koosman 6.1 WARR
10. Buddy Bell 5.9 WARR
11. Willie Wilson 5.65 WARR
12. Jim Kern 5.6 WARR
13. Gene Tenace 5.35 WARR

The outstanding defense played by both Willie Wilson and Buddy Bell helped them rate this high.

The rest of the top 20
Dave Parker
Ken Singleton
Ron Guidry
Sid Monge
Ron Cey
Paul Molitor
Gary Carter

Using my usual uber-stat blender system, here's my prelim:

1 LYNN, FRED 9829
2 PORTER, DARRELL 9367
3 BRETT, GEORGE 9342
4 WINFIELD, DAVE 9006
5 SCHMIDT, MIKE 8955
6 HERNANDEZ, KEITH 8512
7 ECKERSLEY, DENNIS 7532
8 CARTER, GARY 7502
9 GRICH, BOBBY 7386
10 PARKER, DAVE 7364
11 SINGLETON, KEN 7310
12 KOOSMAN, JERRY 7205
13 RICHARD, J.R. 7021

14 RICE, JIM 7021
15 KERN, JIM 6968
16 TENACE, GENE 6853
17 GUIDRY, RON 6827
18 WILSON, WILLIE 6803
19 LEZCANO, SIXTO 6725
20 JOHN, TOMMY 6699

Lynn was tops in 5 of the 6 systems I'm currently using.
In the one exception, Eckersley was tops.
This is the last year of baseball before I started following it.
I was vaguely aware of it (as my mom would quite often listen to games on radio and
sometimes watch on TV... but it was something I was curious about and didn't start
following until 1980).

Lots of quality from the 'pen men in 1979.

Savoy (#24, as opposed to all the other Savoy posts in this thread so far) -

As a form of shorthand, I refer to my sports endeavors as being "stick fighting." Actually, they were in a medieval group called the Society for Creative Anachronism (SCA). In the SCA, we make "swords" and spears and polearms, etc. out of furniture rattan and foam, but we make real armor out of real metal, so we don't spend half the year in the hospital. We also choose our kings by tournament, one every six months. If you win, you're the prince for 6 months and then the king for another 6. (If you win and you're female - which has happened - you're the princess and queen, so we often use the terms "regent" and "consort" since we require the tourney entrants to actually have someone of the opposite sex to fight for and reign with.) During my prime, I finished second in the crown tourney twice (the SCA is divided into kingdoms; STL is in Calontir, which comprises MO, IA, KS, and NE, so I was essentially fighting in four-state tournaments) and in the semifinals six more times. So, yes, I've dealt with sports performance pressure when something I really wanted was truly on the line.

What I found, and I spent several years asking the other guys who came close to winning or who actually won, is that fighters either do or do not have a "Crown Tourney mode", where they fight noticeably better than they do when it's not activated. I also found that, in the SCA, it kicks in when you reach the semifinals. The way I refer to it is that, when you get to the semis, you're "in the tournament." Everyone I've talked to who has been there agrees that this is true. There's a mental focus that you don't have even in earlier rounds of the tourney, even if you've been hanging out in the finals and semis for years. So yes, I have no doubt that the effect exists. The problem with giving credit for it, either in the SCA or in baseball, is that everyone who gets that far along (to the postseason in MLB) is someone, or some team, that does have that mental mode to use. Either that, or they just have overwhelming talent. And even the overwhelming talent guys don't win all that often, at least until they've been there a time or two and developed a crown tourney mode. An experienced overwhelming talent guy is going to beat anyone who isn't, as you might imagine.

So, while the "clutch performance" effect is real, it tends to cancel itself out, because the other guy has it working, too. That's why clutch performance in baseball is so hard to repeat, and so likely, even when it is repeated, to be largely luck. When you get to to the World Series, having "clutch" isn't an advantage. It's necessary. If you don't have it, you're not going to win, unless you've just got an unbeatable roster of talent. Also, since just getting to the major leagues at all is a very competitive thing to try to do, I would imagine that almost everyone in MLB has at least some "crown tourney" gear. Either that, or they have overwhelming talent (Garry Tempelton). Otherwise, the guys who do have that kind of gear will beat you out for that coveted MLB spot and salary. - Brock

Can we get WS for Pops Stargell (WAR has him at 2.3)? I'm willing to give him a large 'effect on team performance' bonus, but need to know how much he would need to get him on the ballot.

I get all the Win Shares from the baseball gauge at seamheads.com

prelim
mixing WS with a combo of WAR and RAA+defense
some credit for helping your team win a division
post-season credit? yes.
small catcher bonus

1 Lynn
2 Porter
3 Brett
4 Winfield
5 Schmidt
6 Parker - fine world series
7 Hernandez - led league in 2B, runs scored, avg, and re-invented 1B
8 Singleton
9 Rice
10 Carter
11 Grich
12-15 Baylor (some clutch RBI-for-pennant bonus, Niekro, Lezcano, Kern, Stargell (massive post-season and probably some clubhouse credit), and Bench (caught almost every game down the stretch for a team that snuck into the playoffs; wi l need to check game logs / team pitching / clutch stats to see if he gets enough creidt to merit a ballot slot)

1979 NLCS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS
Parker 3  12  2  4  0  0  0  2  2  3  .333  .400  .333  .733  1  0  
Stargell 3  11  2  5  2  0  2  6  3  2  .455  .571  1.182  1.753  0  0

Concepcion 3  14  1  6  1  0  0  0  0  3  .429  .429  .500  .929  0  1

Phil Garner and Johnny Bench were pretty good too.

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Tekulve 2  0  3.38  0  0  0  0  2.2  2  1  2  2  1.500  

1979 ALCS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS
Singleton 4  16  4  6  2  0  0  2  1  2  .375  .389  .500  .889  0  0

Downing 4  15  1  3  0  0  0  1  1  1  .200  .235  .200  .435  0  0
Baylor 4  16  2  3  0  0  1  2  1  2  .188  .235  .375  .610  0  0
Grich 4  13  0  2  1  0  0  2  1  1  .154  .200  .231  .431  0  0

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Flanagan 1  1  5.14  1  0  0  0  7.0  6  4  1  2  1.000  

1979 WS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS
Singleton 7  28  1  10  1  0  0  2  2  5  .357  .400  .393  .793  0  0  

Parker 7  29  2  10  3  0  0  4  2  7  .345  .394  .448  .842  0  1
Stargell 7  30  7  12  4  0  3  7  0  6  .400  .375  .833  1.208  0  0

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Flanagan  3  2  3.00  1  1  0  1  15.0  18  5  2  13  1.333

Tekulve 5  0  2.89  0  1  3  0  9.1  4  3  3  10  0.750

A handful of AL starters by my system:

Flanagan 102.7 Pitching Runs Created
Eckersley 102.4
John 100
Guidry 98
Caldwell 83
Palmer (because his name was already in the spreadsheet) 57

Since a MMP usually has 120+ runs created, I don't think any of these is likely to lead my ballot.

My Win Value stat for 1979 starting pitchers.

NL
1. Joe Niekro 3.4
2. J.R. Richard 3.3
3. John Fulgham 2.8
4. Tom Seaver 2.2
5. John Candelaria 2.1
6. Silvio Martinez 2.0
7. Jim Bibby 2.0
8. David Palmer 2.0
9. Gaylord Perry 1.9
10. Dan Schatzeder 1.8

AL
1. Mike Flanagan 4.5
2. Dennis Eckersley 4.2
3. Tommy John 3.9
4. Ron Guidry 3.8
5. Jerry Koosman 3.7
6. Jack Morris 3.4
7. Mike Caldwell 2.7
8. Steve Comer 2.3
9. Jim Slaton 2.1
10. Geoff Zahn 2.0

1979 Preliminary: version 2

Comments on the thread about the importance of when a player gets his hits started me thinking. The starting point to my evaluation has always been to determine the RAA. I have always used a context neutral stat such as XR runs or wOBA to do that. After some thought about the subject, I decided that for this purpose a context neutral stat was not the way to go. So I redid my calculations using value added runs (RE24) to determine my starting point (RAA). I then did the adjustments and calculated replacement runs the way I have always done them. The results did not change the top 13 very much, but it certainly reordered them.

My second version of my preliminary with wins above reduced replacement.

1. George Brett 9.00
2. Dave Winfield 8.60
3. Keith Hernandez 8.55
4. Darrell Porter 7.75
5. Fred Lynn 7.40
6. Phil Niekro 7.15
7. Mike Schmidt 7.05
8. Dennis Eckersley 6.70
9. Jerry Koosman 6.60
10. Gene Tenace 6.35
11. Dave Parker 6.00
12. Jim Kern 6.00
13. Buddy Bell 5.75

The next 20
Booby Grich
Gary Carter
Gary Templeton
Rick Reuschel
Dave Concepcion
Ron Guidry
Sixto Lezcano

Rob - that is Joe, not Phil Niekro, on your list?

Tom #42 - I'm not sure I want to credit Hernandez with re-inventing first base defense. I WILL credit him with being the best defensive 1B since the mid-1960s, or earlier, and I include up through 2012 in that. The next best defensive 1B I've seen in that time period was J. T.Snow, whose glove was so good that he could keep a job when he really didn't hit as well as you'd expect a starting 1B to hit. The 1950s-1060s produced at least three outstanding defensive 1B: Vic Power, Wes Parker, and Bill White. I got to see a lot of White and a considerable amount of Parker, along with a smattering of Power. They played 1B defense just as well as Hernandez did, and better than Snow. I will credit Keith for one thing: making adjustments to the new turf fields. The speed and lack of bad hops which characterize turf allows you to play further back than usual, but it also means that you have to have an arm and you have to be moving fast to 1B when the ball isn't going to get to you. Hernandez was great at those skills, and at pouncing on bunts. But so were Power, Parker and White. Just a matter of different times. - Brock Hanke