Plaques should be up within a week. One of them is already finished, while the other two are almost completed. That's better than last year already. :-)

someone didn't vote for Bagwell?

someone didn't vote for Bagwell?

Take a guess, Howie. ;-)

Which players from the Hall of Fame ballot are prior inductees to the Hall of Merit?

To answer Alan Keiper in post 4:

Hall of Merit, Not Hall of Fame: current 2011 ballot:

Bert Blyleven
Roberto Alomar
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
Jeff Bagwell
Kevin Brown
Larry Walker

someone didn't vote for Bagwell?

Look, Bagwell never led the league in putouts, and we're supposed to think he's some great defender?

Website.

Don Mattingly got a first place vote?

The consensus score were fairly spread out, and quite asymmetrical. Lots of voters fairly close to the top, with some outliers below. The mean was -0.3, which was the highest it's been since 2007 and higher than the long-term trend. This was a fairly easy ballot to agree on. The median was +2, above the mean because the distribution was skewed.

Brad Harris: +11
Dan R: +10
Bleed the Freak: +10
DL from MN: +9
Mike Webber: +9
AJM: +9
...
OCF: +7
...
Alex King: +4 (one of our two new voters)
John Murphy: +4
...
Joe Dimino: +2 (yes, Joe is precisely the median voter)
...
Johnny S-L Fora: +1 (our other new voter)
...
dan b: -9
Adam Schafer: -10
Rusty Priske: -11
bjhanke: -18
sunnyday2: -22
yest: -43

About that -43: that is an all-time record for the lowest consensus score. That breaks the previous record for how far below the average consensus score by a margin of 10 (remember that this year's average was fairly high).

I know he's been with us for the duration of the project, but this is getting ridiculous. (And yes, posts number 2,3, and 6 in this thread, that's who I'm talking about.) Serious question: does yest's 2011 ballot actually pass the "Wid Conroy" test?

Note to John: Babe Adams and Hack Wilson didn't drop out.

On the issue of Brown's cap: here is the breakdown of my RA+ equivalent records for him.

Rangers: 73-69 (41 FWP)
Orioles: 12-7 (13 FWP)
Marlins: 38-14 (50 FWP)
Padres: 20-9 (24 FWP)
Dodgers: 63-34 (70FWP)
Yankees: 10-12 (3 FWP)

On balance: you can argue it in any of three ways, and the WS and shoulda-been CY he won with Florida is a consideration - but I'd lean towards calling him a Dodger.

Walker pretty clearly gets a Rockies cap - is that a first for that team?

what is so hard to understand that Jeff Bagwell was a boycott vote?

Don Mattingly got a first place vote?

Probably from somewhere in CT.

Hall of Merit, Not Hall of Fame: All-time differences:

SP's
Bert Blyleven
Bob Caruthers
Wes Ferrell
Billy Pierce
Bret Saberhagen
Dave Stieb

C's
Charlie Bennett
Bill Freehan
Cal McVey
Ted Simmons
Joe Torre
Quincy Trouppe
Deacon White

1B's
Will Clark
Keith Hernandez
Mark McGwire
Joe Start

2B's
Roberto Alomar
Ross Barnes
Cupid Childs
Bobby Grich
Willie Randolph
Hardy Richardson
Lou Whitaker

3B's
Dick Allen
John Beckwith
Ken Boyer
Darrell Evans
Heinie Groh
Stan Hack
Graig Nettles
Ron Santo
Ezra Sutton

SS's:
Bill Dahlen
Jack Glasscock
Home Run Johnson
Dick Lundy
Dobie Moore
Dickey Pearce
Alan Trammell

LF's
Charley Jones
Charlie Keller
Sherry Magee
Minnie Minoso
Tim Raines
Jimmy Sheckard
Harry Stovey

CF's
Pete Browning
George Gore
Paul Hines
Alejandro Oms
Lip Pike
Jimmy Wynn

RF's
Dwight Evans
Joe Jackson
Pete Rose
Reggie Smith

DH's
Edgar Martinez

I apologize for anyone who I may have omitted.

what is so hard to understand that Jeff Bagwell was a boycott vote?

Because there is no reason to boycott him?

Glad to see Cannonball back in the top ten.

As expected, Rafael Palmeiro and David Cone both look pretty good for induction in 2012. But that third spot is going to be a battle royale. I'd say that everyone down to Gavvy Cravath at #11 has a legitimate shot based on number of points and ballots.

So let me make my plea now: to all of the voters who have Dick Redding just off their ballot, in 16, 17 or 18 (or even 19 or 20), it's time to fire that shot and place Cannonball in your top 15.

The list in #13 shows our real divergence with the Hall of Fame: 19th century players and post-expansion players.

That's especially clear on the right side of the infield as all first and second basemen fall into one of those two categories (Start, Barnes, Childs, Richardson; Clark, Hernandez, McGwire, Alomar, Grich, Randolph, Whitaker). Now, many of the players from the latter category are still working their way through the writers' ballot (Alomar will most likely be elected in January). It also shows up in the outfield where Oms is the only center fielder who doesn't fit that description.

ps. You're missing Barry Larkin at SS.

On balance: you can argue it in any of three ways, and the WS and shoulda-been CY he won with Florida is a consideration - but I'd lean towards calling him a Dodger.

Walker pretty clearly gets a Rockies cap - is that a first for that team?

Brown was a pain in the butt to figure out. He clearly wasn't a great pitcher as a Ranger, but you can't ignore the huge differential in innings pitched (that's before you prorate his strike numbers in '94, too) compared to LA. It's very close (I have the difference in overall value in the vicinity of 7%), but I lean toward a Rangers cap.

Walker is clearly a Rockie. He had his best years in Colorado and played there longer than in Montreal.

So let me make my plea now: to all of the voters who have Dick Redding just off their ballot, in 16, 17 or 18 (or even 19 or 20), it's time to fire that shot and place Cannonball in your top 15.


And I urge all Dick Redding voters to take a second look at Don Newcombe, who may be within striking distance of election next year. Newk may not be a sexy "discovery" for the HoM, but you'll find that if you give him credit for the barriers he faced, he's just as strong a candidate as Redding.

I think a Dodger cap is quite easy, I posted his Pennants Added on his thread. It isn't close. He has more than 50% more value as a Dodger, despite pitching only 2/3 of the innings.

Florida would be #2 for me.

Here's that post . . .

Pennants added by team:



He pitched more for Texas, but he was a lot more valuable as a Dodger.

Note to John: Babe Adams and Hack Wilson didn't drop out.

I'll take care of it, OCF. Thanks.

BTW, the pennants added are prorated for season length, the innings above are not.

I think a Dodger cap is quite easy, I posted his Pennants Added on his thread. It isn't close. He has more than 50% more value as a Dodger, despite pitching only 2/3 of the innings.

It's close enough that I won't argue the point, Joe. A Dodger cap it is.

A Florida cap over a Ranger one, OTOH, I would, however.

He pitched more for Texas, but he was a lot more valuable as a Dodger.

That's questionable. Of course, I'm not a Pennants Added type of guy anyway.

Does Bagwell go in with a Red Sox cap?

Chris Fluit/ 16 - thanks for the catch on Barry Larkin. I hope to post the hall of fame not hall of merit later today

Does Bagwell go in with a Red Sox cap?

Only if karlmagnus was in charge of picking caps. :-D

Sorry, double post.

Hadn't thought of Bagwell, but it's quite right, he has a case! Just so long as nobody robs the good guys of Clemens! (not that I'm hugely a fan...)

I must be slipping; not on the lowest consensus score list. Still, as I've pointed out before, mathematically low consensus score ballots add more information to the pool than high ones!

See you guys next year!

what is so hard to understand that Jeff Bagwell was a boycott vote?

But Mattingly number 1? Seriously? (If you were the one who put Mattingly first)

See you guys next year!

Wait, wait--I thought we were trying to get away from the yearly disappearing act? Aren't we moving forward with the MMP project, the website, etc? (Not that Karl has to participate in those, of course, don't mean to pick on him--but I hate to see us all waving and getting into our Winnebagoes and driving home when we've been talking about the need to remain engaged recently!)

I know the website situation is still dependent on Joe's schedule, and possibly Tango's and Shock's (any update, or projected timeline on that stuff, Joe? And can any of us help in any way, since we know you're swamped?). But can someone with keys perhaps put up a MMP discussion thread, so we can start setting up a schedule and rules and such, and maybe get started on that?

For a purely peak voter, boycotting Bagwell, I could see (though not agree with) Mattingly being 1st. At least amongst the hitters. I don't know how anyone could justify Mattingly having a higher peak than say, Dizzy Dean, or Nap Rucker.

What the heck happened to Concepcion? I thought he was finally building some momentum.

I think chone warp happened to davey.

karlmagnus: -7, 8th from the bottom. You did have Bagwell 1st and the other three top new candidates in your top 9. Doing things like putting Joss 2nd and Cicotte 4th will put you below average - but other voters did more than that. karlmagnus voted for 5 of the top 15 candidates: the new 4 plus McGriff. yest voted for 1 of the top 15 candidates: a 9th place vote for Duffy. It looks like several voters voted for 10 of the top 15 candidates, but I don't see anyone with more than that. I voted for 9 of the top 15 myself, missing on Rizzuto, Redding, Duffy, Cravath, Newcombe, and Walters.

On the Brown's cap issue: it looks to me that Joe's Pennants Added post says almost exactly the same thing as my RA+ equivalent FWP post, which is to say LA clearly ahead and Florida slightly ahead of Texas, followed by SD, Bal, and NYY in that order.

On balance: you can argue it in any of three ways, and the WS and shoulda-been CY he won with Florida is a consideration - but I'd lean towards calling him a Dodger.

How about we give Brown a $ as his symbol? With a Dr. Jobe office appointment card taped under the bill.

I was just going to say, two things. First, I wound up ranking him below Campaneris and Rizzuto, so people who pay attention to me would move him down in their ordinal rankings. Second, CHONE WAR uses a different methodology for historical positional values (TotalZone scores of position-switchers in each decade) that is very unfriendly to 1970s SS and very friendly to 1970s 3B. And since his numbers got on baseball-reference and mine didn't, everyone is now ringing the Bell to jump on the Bando-wagon.

Obviously, I disagree strongly with Sean's methodology for determining historical positional values and with the conclusions drawn from it. He would surely say the same of mine.

And I urge all Dick Redding voters to take a second look at Don Newcombe, who may be within striking distance of election next year. Newk may not be a sexy "discovery" for the HoM, but you'll find that if you give him credit for the barriers he faced, he's just as strong a candidate as Redding.

I'll second that. I'm a supporter of both. I had Redding 4th and Newcombe 8th on this year's ballot.

Though I would disagree with one thing. I think Newk is a great "discovery" for the Hall of Merit, demonstrating this body's fuller understanding of baseball's integration era.

I think a Dodger cap is quite easy, I posted his Pennants Added on his thread. It isn't close. He has more than 50% more value as a Dodger, despite pitching only 2/3 of the innings.

Florida would be #2 for me.

I agree. I would love to see Brown pick up the first cap for the Marlins but his Dodger work was even better. The Rangers, despite the bulk innings, are well behind the other two.

As expected, Rafael Palmeiro and David Cone both look pretty good for induction in 2012. But that third spot is going to be a battle royale. I'd say that everyone down to Gavvy Cravath at #11 has a legitimate shot based on number of points and ballots.

And Bernie Williams is a first timer next year, I think.

What the heck happened to Concepcion? I thought he was finally building some momentum.

It flipped to Bando, who jumped to 19th from 41st.

Voted in 2011 but not 2010:

Brad Harris (last previous vote in 1935)
Mike Webber (one year skip)
Alex King (new voter)
'zop (one year skip)
Johnny S-L Fora (new voter)
Ken Fischer (one year skip)

Voted in 2010 but not 2011:

Brent
Chris Cobb
KJOK
mulder & scully
mystikx20 (one-timer)
Sean Gilman
Tiboreau
Yardape

Voted in 2008 or 2009 but not 2011:

Max Parkinson
Tom H
Andrew M
Andrew Siegel
DanG
David Foss
Don F (Pedro Feliz Navidad)
Eric Chalek
EricC
favre
Jim Sp
rico vanian
Tom D

Those last two lists carry a great deal of HoM history and expertise. Of course, any one of them could have flipped the order of Walker and Brown (a falling leaf could have flipped the order of Walker and Brown), but it seems unlikely that all of them put together could have or would have changed the overall results.

If you are on those lists, I'm really hoping you vote next year, where the election is wide open. Has the forgone conclusion of the last two elections maybe been a reason for losing a few of you?

Don't worry about your support of players in the top 18. If we go with instant runoff for next year the following players must be ranked:

Rafael Palmeiro
David Cone
Rick Reuschel
Phil Rizzuto
Luis Tiant
Cannonball Dick Redding
Hugh Duffy
Gavvy Cravath
Don Newcombe
Bucky Walters
Vic Willis
Fred McGriff
Kirby Puckett
Bobby Bonds
Bob Johnson

I'd also add Bernie Williams to the list as he's the only potentially viable candidate from next year's class. The 2012 election will come down to those players. The players don't have to be in your top 15 but they must have an ordinal ranking in order for an instant runoff to be successful. None of the candidates are a lock to get 50% of the possible points.

all-time 'votes points' thru 2011 - those still eligible in 2012 election are in CAPS

electees are not in caps

top 4 locked in place for all eternity, it seems
Redding may be only 3 years away from overtaking Welch for most pitching pts
Cravath celebrates rise into all-time top 20
Walters annexes 22nd, Grimes claims 29th, Williamson 48th, all others unchanged
Willis could catch Keller for 50th in 2 years, barely

TOP 50, ALL-TIME, unofficial
DUFFY...... 27398.5
VAN HALTREN 26905.5
Beckley.... 25856
Browning... 24502.5
WELCH...... 18613
Childs..... 18484
REDDING.... 18130
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976

CJones..... 15875
TLEACH..... 15660
Bresnahan.. 14965
Sisler..... 13892
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
RYAN....... 12663.5X
Mendez..... 12555
Thompson... 12349
CRAVATH.....12064

Roush...... 12005
WALTERS.....11633
Bennett.... 11503
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
Beckwith.... 9896
DOYLE....... 9794
GRIMES.......9613
HStovey......9576

BJOHNSON.....9529
Mackey.......8930
AOms.........8385
Start........8378.5
McGinnity....8232
McGraw.......8145
DPearce......8073
McVey........7985.5
FGrant.......7969.5
BMONROE......7861

Kiner........7746
Suttles......7690
NFox.........7587
Trouppe......7494
WFerrell.....7259
CBell........6968
SCHANG.......6837
WILLIAMSON...6680
Galvin.......6585
Keller.......6424

Others in active top 50
Willis 6151, Dean 5814, Elliott 5113, Bridges 4900, Joss 4760, Rizzuto 4566, BTaylor 4504, TPerez 4217, FChance 3755, CMays 3713, NCash 3671, Tiant 3660, Traynor 3616, Cepeda 3449X, SRice 3277, Cicotte 3239, McCormick 3219, Brock 3114, EHoward 2843, Tiernan 2692X, Singleton 2690, FJones 2636, BoBonds 2634, Klein 2586, VStephens 2523, BClarkson 2421, Veach 2389X, GJBurns 2388, Staub 2383, Mullane 2328, Dunlap 2259, Lombardi 2215, Bancroft 2047, Poles 1842X

don't have tallies for guys who might sneak in near the bottom like Cone, Newcombe, Concepcion, Puckett

I did a quick run-through for 2012 and yes, it does seem that Dick Redding will sneak onto my ballot.

My early predictions for my PHoM for 2012 are Larry Walker, Bernie Williams and... Buddy Bell? That can't be right. Time to look at it again. :)


On this year's discussion thread someone said I was in love with first basemen or something. It looks to me like my #1-3 may be Rafael Palmeiro, Fred McGriff and Tony Perez. :)

I see Bernie Williams around 7 or 8.

Find a pitcher, Rusty!

It was me that said you love first baseman. I'm not wrong. I would encourage you to reconsider your apparent lack of interest in pitchers.

Wow, Tiernan back from the dead.
Give him 2709 pts - too bad the "edit" function has expired...

My early predictions for my PHoM for 2012 are Larry Walker, Bernie Williams and... Buddy Bell?

If that happens, Walker will be the first ever two time inductee.

You misinterpreted; he said "PHoM," where the "P" stands for "personal." There's no inherent contradiction there.

I hope that doesn't come off wrong. I just see Bernie Williams, Buddy Bell and Fred McGriff and think there's gotta be a pitcher you like more than one of those guys. This isn't the cream of the crop.