Wednesday, December 12, 2012
2013 Results: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Biggio are elected to the Hall of Merit!
(bbtf)
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio have been elected to the Hall of Merit!
The timing for our first year electing 4 candidates could not have worked out better, since class of 2013 is the strongest in terms of electees that we’ve ever had. The top of the 1934 ballot included Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Eddie Collins, Pop Lloyd, Smokey Joe Williams and Cristobal Torriente, but only 2 were elected.
Bonds and Clemens were each unanimous at 1 and 2. I believe that’s the first ...
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1 2 >EDIT: I guess 2nd time's a charm . . .
1) Barry Bonds - 2nd to Williams in LF due to war credit. Top 5 player in baseball history.
2) Roger Clemens - 2nd to Walter Johnson among pitchers. Top 10 player in baseball history.
3) Mike Piazza - 4th among C behind Gibson, Bench and Berra. He is close enough to Dickey, Hartnett and Carter that a case could be made that he's 7th due to all the unknowns regarding catcher defense. Top 60 player in baseball history.
4) Curt Schilling - 18th among pitchers. Ignoring early pitchers he's behind Blyleven and Robin Roberts but ahead of Carl Hubbell, Gaylord Perry and Dazzy Vance. Top 65 player in baseball history.
5) Tommy Bridges - Have been supporting Bridges since the 1970 ballot. Still think he's great.
6) Craig Biggio - 13th among second basemen ahead of Gordon and Doerr, essentially tied with Billy Herman and behind Ryne Sandberg. Top 180 player in baseball history.
7) Urban Shocker - gets WWI credit
8) Bus Clarkson - NGL and Mexican league credit
9) Phil Rizzuto - WWII credit
10) Gavy Cravath - minor league credit, four guys in a row that require credit
11) Luis Tiant
12) Bob Johnson - on every ballot since I started voting in 1968
13) Ben Taylor - how do we induct Palmeiro and Beckley but not Ben Taylor? Taylor has the advantage of being the best 1B in the league and they don't. Great fielder during an era where it mattered quite a bit.
14) Bert Campaneris
15) Tony Mullane - didn't realize he was blackballed until this ballot
16-20) Bucky Walters, Dave Bancroft, Hilton Smith, Norm Cash, Johnny Pesky
21-25) Dick Redding, Wally Schang, SAMMY SOSA, Don Newcombe, Dave Concepcion
26-30) Babe Adams, Tommy Leach, Dizzy Dean, Jack Fournier, Wilbur Cooper
Sosa and Norm Cash are not far apart. Both are good bat, high peak, short prime, better than expected glove players and they both used corked bats. Cash actually has higher raw BWAA2 and FWAA2 according to Dan R. Their run scoring environments couldn't be much more different.
34) Kenny Lofton - but ranked as high as Earl Averill and higher than Andre Dawson, Jimmy Wynn, Edd Roush, Willard Brown and Pete Browning. I think we overrate CF as a voting group.
79) David Wells - pretty decent showing
Hugh Duffy - 107th near players like Dale Murphy and Chet Lemon
Vic Willis - 69th near Chuck Finley and Frank Tanana
Sal Bando - 116th since my numbers have him as a below average fielder. Close to Ed Konetchy and Tim Salmon
1. Barry Bonds, LF - Best LF in the league for the periods ending from 1991 through 2008. 16-times the top player in five-consecutive year periods ending in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006. All-Star in periods ending in 1990, 2007 and 2008. Probably the best baseball player I will ever see. #1 all-time LF, #2 all-time player behind Ruth.
2. Roger Clemens, SP - Best SP in the league in periods ending 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994. Second in 1988, 1998 periods. Also a Cy Young pitching candidate over five-year periods ending 1995, 1999. All-Star in the period ending in 1996, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007. Probably the best pitcher I will ever see. Only clearly behind Walter Johnson. With Walter, Clemens is on my all-time starting five staff with Cy Young, Pete Alexander, and Lefty Grove.
3. Curt Schilling, SP - 8-time All-Star in the periods ending 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006. Just missed being a Cy Young pitcher because of Clemens, Martinez, Johnson, Maddux. Still, Schilling was better than contemporaries and future HOMers Brown, Mussina, Glavine, and Smoltz.
4. Mike Piazza, C - Never an MVP, 6 times the best catcher in the league in the periods ending 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001. 2nd best catcher in the period ending 2002. So far the best hitting catcher of all time. Receives a catcher bonus to put him here.
5. Craig Biggio, 2B - Best 2B in the league in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000. Also All-Star candidate in the periods ending 1996 and 2001. Also 2nd-best catcher in periods ending in 1992 and 1993. Didn't rate out this high, but receives a slight catcher bonus.
6. Sal Bando, 3B – 8-time All-Star, and the top player in the league in the 1969-1973 period. In fact, Bando, Barry Bonds, and Bill Nicholson are the only unelected top players in any period from 1871 to 2006. Unlike Swish Nicholson, Bando had a substantial career, as the top 3B in periods ending 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975 and 1976, and with significantly high totals in periods ending 1971, 1977 and 1978.
7. Urban Shocker, SP - Best pitcher in the league in the period ending 1925. Only Shocker, Tommy Bond, Jim McCormick, Mort Cooper, Johnny Antonelli, Dwight Gooden, and Roger Clemens can claim that honor among unelected eligible pitchers. Shocker had the longest, best peak out of all of them except Clemens. Urban was a Cy Young contender in the five-year periods ending 1923, 1924, 1925 and 1926, and was an All-Star in the periods ending in 1922 and 1927.
8. Dick Redding, SP – I’m still high on him. The seamheads career metrics until 1923 show only Mendez and Bullet Rogan clearly ahead of Redding, and Joe Williams is probably there as well but may not have the data.
9. Ben Taylor, 1B – Seamheads shows Taylor as a top player for the period they have. I think we missed him because of little statistical support. Now that we have it, Taylor seems like a good choice.
10. Kenny Lofton, CF - Never an MVP candidate or top CF, 5-time All-Star in the periods ending 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999. Solid player for 15 straight seasons.
11. Sammy Sosa, RF - Never an MVP candidate primarily because of Bonds and Rodriguez, Sosa was the best RF in the league in the periods ending 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003, and an All-Star in the periods ending 1997 and 2004. Only a solid player for 11 years, which puts him slightly below Lofton.
12. Buddy Bell, 3B - Never the top 3B in the league, overshadowed by HOMers Mike Schmidt and George Brett, Bell was still an All-Star 5 times, in periods ending in 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984.
13. Jim McCormick, SP – Another unelected top pitcher, this one in the periods ending in 1882, 1883 and 1884. All-Star pitcher in 1885 and 1886. WAR shows he now stands atop the unelected 19th century pitchers, and is so much higher that he is hard to ignore.
14. Gene Tenace, C – The top catcher in the five-year periods ending 1979 and 1980, and the top 1B in the five-year period ending 1977. Also made lists as a catcher in 1975, 77, 78, 81 and 82, and as a 1B in 1976. Only Johnny Bench was a better catcher from 1974-1978, and only Willie Stargell was a better 1B from 1972-1976.
15. Orel Hershiser, SP – Yes, I was surprised the Bulldog ranked this high, but he was a solid All-Star in 1988, 1989, 1990 and 1991 and had a longer productive career than we realize, solid player in almost all of the 1986-1999 periods. Only Dwight Gooden and Roger Clemens beat Hershiser in the period ending in 1988 and only Clemens in the 1985-1989 period.
ALMOST THERE
16. Bob Elliott, 3B - Top 3B in 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952 periods, a close second to Whitey Kurowski in 1947, and second to Stan Hack in 1943, 1944, and 1945 period.
17. Ned Williamson, 3B – I think we missed this guy, who was the top 3B in periods ending in 1881, 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, and 1885, and was the second best 3B in the 1886, and 1887 periods, and the second-best SS (to HOMer Jack Glasscock) in the 1888 period. Was an MVP candidate in the 1879-1883 period.
18. Kevin Appier, SP – One of the top pitchers in periods ending 1995, 1996 and 1997, second only to Greg Maddux. Behind only Clemens and Maddux in the 1990-1994 period.
19. Vic Willis, SP - Cy Young candidate (with the actual Cy Young) in the period ending in 1902. Besides that great stretch, Willis was an All-Star only in the periods ending in 1901 and 1903.
20. Hugh Duffy, CF – MVP candidate in the period ending 1895, and an All-Star in the periods ending in 1893, 1894 and 1897.
LAST YEARS TOP 10 WITH COMMENTS
Phil Rizzuto, SS – All-Star only in the 1949-1953 period, just behind Reese among shortstops. From periods ending 1948-1952 significantly behind Reese, and 1950-1954 behind Reese and Alvin Dark. War credit doesn’t give him enough of a bump.
Gavvy Cravath, RF - All-Star in four five year periods, ending in 1916, 1917, 1918, and 1919. With minor league credit, he might have had a few more, and maybe an MVP, but that wouldn't be enough to vault him to the ballot.
Luis Tiant, SP - Has been high before, but because of inconsistencies in almost every five-year period, he was only an All-Star pitcher in the 1972-1976 period. Still, a long enough career for consideration.
That's contradicted by the MMP voting where Bando's best finish in that time period is 10th in 1969. He was 15th in 1973 and 21st in 1971. The MMP voters gave Bench two 2nd place finishes in that time period, for example.
That's contradicted by the MMP voting where Bando's best finish in that time period is 10th in 1969. He was 15th in 1973 and 21st in 1971. The MMP voters gave Bench two 2nd place finishes in that time period, for example.
That would suggest that the MMP voters aren't relying all that heavily on BBRef WAR, which appears to be the measure ronw is using. Bando earned more WAR, according to BBRef, from 1969 through 1973, than any other position player in the American League. He never led the league, but he placed in the top 10 every year--the only AL player to do so. The top 10 finishers over that period, if I have my numbers correct, were
Bando - 31.3 WAR
Jackson - 29.9
Yaz - 25.7
White 25.1
Murcer - 24.9
Smith - 24.8
Petrocelli - 23.3
Nettles - 22.4
Blair - 21.8
Campaneris - 21.7
Not, perhaps, the deepest pool, but there are four HoMers in it. The NL of the corresponding period was just _a bit_ stronger. Off the top we have:
Bobby Bonds - 30.5
Morgan - 30.5
Rose - 30.3
Bench - 29.8
Aaron - 27.9
Perez - 26.1
Stargell - 25.7
But, remarkably, Bando still has the most WAR for the period. With so many players clustered around 30 WAR for the 5-year period, it's easy to see how Bando, even if BBRef's WAR numbers were popular in the MMP balloting (and I have no idea about that), he could not have been close to winning in a given year and yet still had the top 5-year total. Interesting.
Sorta skipped over this the first time. Thanks for everything John. Joe - if you need help with anything just ask.
:)
My 1, 6 and 7 from 2011 elected, I have six newly eligible players on the ballot.
1) BARRY BONDS – 158 BBref-WAR, 705 Win Shares – On a awesome ballot, easy number one.
2) ROGER CLEMENS – 134 BBref-WAR, 437 Win Shares – Best pitcher of his era.
3) MIKE PIAZZA - 56 BBref-WAR, 325 Win Shares – I have Biggio and Piazza in a dead heat.
4) CRAIG BIGGIO – 62 BBref-WAR, 428 Win Shares – but I ranked Piazza ahead of Biggio because I think you could argue Piazza is one of the four best catchers ever, but I don’t think Biggio can say that among second basemen. Maybe he belongs in that group with Rose, Killebrew, Tony Phillips, etc.
5) CURT SCHILLING – 76 BBref-WAR, 252 Win Shares – only the #2 pitcher on the ballot, but head and shoulders above the non-Clemens pitchers on the ballot.
6) SAL BANDO – 60.6 BBref-WAR, 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it.
7) PHIL RIZZUTO – 41.8 BBref-WAR, 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares or 9 WAR during World War II, I move him to the top of the middle infielder group. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946. (No extra credit for 1946 – just noting it).
8) LUIS TIANT – 60.1 BBref-WAR, 256 Win Shares – poor timing of his big years, but big years push him to top of pitchers currently on ballot.
9) TOMMY LEACH – 50.9 BBref-WAR, 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
10) BOBBY BONDS – 57.0 BBref-WAR, 302 Win Shares – Four 30+ Win Share seasons, at ages 23, 24, 25, and 27. After age 33 Bobby had 7 win shares, Barry had 286. Pete Browning without the fielding problems?
11) SAMMY SOSA – 55 BBref-WAR, 322 Win Shares – three 30+ Win Share seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Fits here, ahead of another peak candidate. Value wise very similar to Bobby Bonds.
12) FRANK CHANCE – 49.5 BBref-WAR, 237 Win Shares - I’m a career guy, but this is the peakiest of peak guys.
13) JOHN OLERUDE – 56.8 BBref-WAR, 302 Win Shares - 2 MVP type seasons, but only 5 other 20+ win share seasons. Also hurt by the large number of first basemen in his era that were clearly better.
14) DICK REDDING – slotting him here ahead of a group that includes Vic Willis, Tommy John and Appier. Seamheads data is interesting, in 1917 he was clearly the best of the Negro League pitchers, winning the triple crown of wins, ERA and K’s. That makes me much more comfortable with this ranking.
15) TONY PEREZ - 50.5 BBref-WAR, 349 Win Shares – 3 MVP type seasons but only 5 other 20+ win share seasons. Weight of career lands him here.
Next group of guys off the ballot grouped by position:
Kevin Appier, Tommy John, Vic Willis, Gene Tenace, Wally Schang, Fred McGriff, Norm Cash, Orlando Cepeda, Johnny Evers, Larry Doyle, Bubby Bell, Bobby Elliot, Ron Cey, Joe Tinker, Luis Aparicio, Bancroft, Fregosi, Stephens, Kenny Williams, Bernie Williams, Bob Johnson, Harry Hooper, Sam Rice.
Other required notes:
Kenny Lofton – two key problems are lack of MVP type seasons and the concern with how much of his value comes from defensive WAR.
Hugh Duffy is in the outfield group just off the ballot with Bob Johnson, Harry Hooper, Spotwood Poles, Fielder Jones, and Sam Rice.
Gavy Cravath – not enough MLB career stats – he has a great argument that his age 32-36 stats are special – but there are a couple of other guys with “real” careers are not in the HOM with similar stretches at the same age – such as Fielder Jones, Dolph Camilli, and Dixie Walker, Tony Phillips, Sid Gordon, Lefty O’Doul, and Elston Howard. Some of these guys have supporters and some don’t. Bill Terry is also similar, and he is widely pointed to as a borderline HOMer and maybe even a mistake. Basically everyone else with this type of productivity at that age is in the HOM. That is a compelling argument, but there is a question about his productivity away from Philly.
1919 and 1920
HOME 385/464/754
AWAY 283/404/478
Even the away numbers would be top 10 in MLB OPS in the time period. That is a definite point in his favor. Retrosheet will keep building his case.
1. Barry Bonds - 2nd greatest player of all time
2. Roger Clemens - 2nd greatest pitcher of all time
3. Mike Piazza - best hitting MLB catcher of all time
4. Craig Biggio - he and Piazza are virtually tied
5. Curt Schilling - boost for post-season performance
6. Tommy Bridges - voted for him since he first appeared on 1949 ballot (with WWII credit)
7. Bob Johnson - with minor league credit
8. Sammy Sosa - not an easy case to evaluate
9. Bobby Bonds - very good all around player
10. Bob Elliott - 1940s NL third baseman (unlikely 1947 MVP)
11. Bernie Williams
12. Fred McGriff
13. Bus Clarkson
14. Tony Perez
15. Tommy Leach
16-20. Maranville, Klein, Traynor, Staub, B.Bell
21-25. Lofton, Van Haltren, J.Clark, D.Parker, T.John
Others in last year's top 10:
Rizzuto - 75th
Tiant - 50th
Redding - 75th
Duffy - 50th
Cravath - 100th
Willis - 100th
Bando - 75th
1) Barry Bonds
2) Roger Clemens
3) Mike Piazza
4) Craig Biggio
5) Curt Schilling
6) Dolf Luque (was #1)
7) Wally Schang (was #2)
8) Tommy John (was #3)
9) Sammy Sosa (new)
10) Hilton Smith (was #4)
11) Buddy Bell (was #7)
12) Luis Tiant (was #6)
13) Lee Smith (was #10)
14) Norm Cash (was #12)
15) Kenny Lofton (new)
Near the ballot: Bonds pere, Bando, Rizzuto, Belle, Willis, and Walters.
Rizzuto, in fact, would be #16; he has been on the bottom of my ballot before. I'm very cautious in extrapolating WWII credit & think the induction of Keller was a mistake.
Bando and Bell are very close; Bando was the better hitter, but Bell's defensive value pulls him slightly ahead.
Redding, in light of our latest NeL evidence, seems to be a Bobo Newsom type; great fastball, bounced around, not a consistent plus pitcher.
Duffy I've commented on extensively before. Like Norm Cash, he has one great offensive season. I'm not convinced that he was an excellent CF defender; in fact, Bernie Williams is ahead of him on my list.
Cravath doesn't have enough shoulder to his career; it's really only five plus seasons. He's a "Sosa-lite" candidate.
Thank you for another year as part of this project!
Post-1893 MLB position player evaluation is the same as in the past, based on my WARP system, whose methodology is elaborated with great detail in the thread devoted to it. The biggest discrepancies this causes with the group involve position scarcity (I think we grossly underrate shortstops) and era preference (I like hitters from difficult-to-dominate years like the 1970s and 80s, and pitchers from the 20s, 50s, and 80s). I have been convinced that there is some value to in-season durability above and beyond total playing time, and my voting has adjusted slightly accordingly. I dock pre-integration players of both races for not competing against their counterparts of the other race (Babe Ruth would have had a lower OPS+ if he had played in the same league as Oscar Charleston, but Charleston would have had a lower MLE as well if he were being translated to an integrated major league, which would have been tougher than the real one). I deduct for suspected or confirmed PED use only as a tiebreaker, since a) we don't know how much they help and b) we don't know which supposedly clean players were using. I do not boycott.
I'm happy to go off baseball-reference’s pitcher WAR for now, whose methodology I basically share (defense-adjusted RA+ over a realistic replacement level and regressing reliever LI halfway to 1 to account for "chaining.") However, I make two big adjustments, for era IP norms and for standard deviations.
I find there were two decades nearly devoid of Meritorious pitchers, even after filling in war credit: the 1940s and the 1980s. Were these simple star droughts, or were there actual contextual factors making it harder for pitchers to string together big seasons? I don't yet have a conclusive answer to that question, but my gut sense, which I am going on for now, is that the 1940s was a star drought and the 1980s were actually difficult for pitchers to dominate. Many of the same factors that gave the 1980s a low standard deviation for hitters also apply to pitchers; that shows up in the defense-adjusted RA+ stdevs, might it also show up in their innings totals? I'm not sure, but it seems plausible. The presence of two 1980s pitchers on my ballot and the absence of Walters reflects this tentative assumption. For post-expansion pitchers, I am now taking a look at league-relative FIP as well, as another means of isolating a pitcher's contributions from his environment.
I've moved up pitchers due to concerns about HoM underrepresentation, and an adjustment of my starter replacement level from 2.1 to 2.4 wins per 200 innings. I've also incorporated SFR and TotalZone data (for now in an ad hoc way, later on I will combine them scientifically in an update of my WARP) into my evaluation of the shortstops, convincing me that Campaneris and Rizzuto are the cream of the quintet (with my handle’s namesake Concepción, Pesky, and Bancroft lagging behind).
Without further ado:
1. Barry Bonds
With a timeline, the best player ever. With a big segregation adjustment, the best player ever. With neither, he falls all the way to #2, behind Babe Ruth. Steroid concerns could conceivably drop him below the guy following him, if that guy didn’t have steroid concerns of his own.
2. Roger Clemens
Copy and paste the first 3 sentences from above, replacing “player” with “pitcher” and “Babe Ruth” with “Walter Johnson” (and maybe Cy Young as well if you don’t deduct too much for era innings norms).
3. Mike Piazza
Best-hitting catcher ever, and in his prime his defense wasn’t nearly as bad as his reputation. That makes him the best major league catcher ever, in my view. And who knows if Josh Gibson would have been a full-time backstop in MLB.
4. Curt Schilling
Not an inner-circle talent like the top 3, but easily worthy of induction—about a median HoM’er for a pitcher, even before giving him much-deserved postseason credit. Extra brownie points for doing the job himself rather than relying on his fielders. Rank in cohort is sllightly problematic, but I can’t blame him for pitching at the same time as Clemens/Maddux/RJ/Pedro, and he might well be the best of the impressive second tier with Brown, Glavine, Mussina, and Smoltz. That argument was what gave me pause about Cone, but I voted for him anyway, and he got in. Schilling was definitely a better athlete than he was a businessman.
5. Craig Biggio
Very similar to his contemporary Alomar, and similarly overrated—there’s no statistical basis to support his sterling defensive reputation. And he hung around waaay too long in pursuit of 3,000 hits. A little catcher bonus for his early years. In the bottom rungs of the HoM, but on the right side of the line.
6. Dagoberto Campaneris
With the advent of play-by-play baserunning numbers going back to the 50’s, his work with his legs doesn't appear to be quite as phenomenal as I had thought--but his defense was significantly better, more than making up for it. SFR has him at plus-144. With that much baserunning and fielding value, he doesn't even need my usual spiel about low SS replacement level and low standard deviations in his era to make him the top backlogger.
7. Sammy Sosa
Steroid concerns break the tie with Campy for me. 1998 made him famous, but 2001 was his piece de resistance—it was one of the top 20 hitting seasons ever (most total bases since Musial’s ’48), and constitutes about a quarter of his total value in my salary estimator. Astonishingly, thanks to the #1 player on this list, he wasn’t even the best hitter in his league that year (and poor 57-HR Luis González!). A good fielder in his youth, not in his old age. Fell apart in a hurry. In my PHoM.
8. Phil Rizzuto
Including extra war credit for the fact that his poor 1946 was due to a malaria infection, he seems like an easy selection. Brilliant fielder (particularly at turning the double play), good baserunner, one huge MVP year, and a fistful of rings I don’t give any credit for. League strength is a concern but I can’t place him any lower than this.
9. Adolfo Luque
I seem to have overlooked him before. His MLB-only record (3,220 IP at a 118 ERA+ in the early liveball era) fits neatly in the pitcher backlog with Bridges, Tiant etc. However, he has two big advantages over the crowd. First, his 1923 was ZOMFG good, after taking into account how hard it was for pitchers to dominate in his era. He topped the majors in ERA+ by fifty-seven points (201 to 144 for Stan Coveleski), while finishing 5 off the innings lead—that’s almost Pedro-in-2000-like. No one else even reached a 175 ERA+ from 1921-27. If you care about peak, compiling what in context is probably one of the 10 best pitcher seasons ever has to count for something. Second, he didn’t get a regular rotation gig in the majors until age 28. I know the numbers suggest he was a late bloomer, and that you can’t just extrapolate his MLB career backwards. But even, say, 5 years of slightly below league-average pitching is what, another 8 WAR on his résumé?
10. Kenny Lofton
My 1994 AL MVP—yes, above Thomas, Belle, and Griffey. Tremendous defense and baserunning value. Funny career shape—great ’93, amazing ’94 cut short by the strike, and then very, very flat. Played in the wrong era for his skill set—he would have been awesome in the 1970’s or 80’s, like a better-hitting Willie Wilson. You have to be a pure career voter to attach much value to his seasons from 2000 on, and I’m not. He’s Willie Davis with a brief, legit peak.
11. Don Newcombe
Needs every adjustment in the book--low stdev of RA+ in the 1950s, war credit, minor league credit, league strength credit, and hitting credit. But like Bill James said of Will Clark’s 1989, all those little things can add up.
12. Dwight Gooden
Yes, I’m serious. This is basically a test of my faith in my salary estimator--is each marginal in-season win worth more than the last? I thought about it long and hard and believe that it is. Now, adjusted for era norms, I think Gooden’s 1985 has a serious case as the greatest pitching season of all time. His ERA+ of 228 stands out like a sore thumb on the decade’s leaderboards, where something in the 140s was good enough to finish first in many seasons. He led the league in innings. And he was a damn good hitter to boot. Basically, I think that if you have three seasons like that and nothing else, you're a HoM’er. Furthermore, I give him extra credit for his rookie year as one of the greatest FIP seasons ever. He did more by himself to prevent runs than almost any other pitcher in history that year--leading the league in K/9 by an enormous 1.75 and allowing the NL’s fewest HR/9--and just got victimized by the BABIP and runner-stranding gods. (He still led the league in CHONE pitcher WAR in spite of his bad luck). His 1986-89 were hardly sublime like the first two, but they had real value in the low-stdev 1980’s--he was seventh in the league in ERA+ in 1986 and 1987. That, 1.5 more decent seasons in 1993 and 1998, and plenty of filler is enough for him to make my PHoM.
13. Luis Tiant
The best backlog pitcher without any extra credit. Rank in cohort hurts him.
14. Gavvy Cravath
Chris Cobb’s suggestion that his fielding, particularly in his minor league days, was adequate, gives him a comfortable ballot spot. Taking advantage of your home park wins baseball games.
15. David Concepción
Dropped due to the less-favorable accounts of his fielding by TotalZone and SFR. Remember, you couldn’t win a World Series between 1972 and 1976 without a Latin shortstop by the initials of D.C.
16. Johnny Pesky
CHONE doesn’t like his defense as much as Fielding WS and BP FRAA do, so he falls too. I still think he's the new Charlie Keller...or, if you prefer, Hughie Jennings. Outstanding years immediately before and after the war, and also played 1941 in the minors at a high major league All-Star level (I don't give him minor league credit for that year, but it does strengthen the case for the quality of his war credit). Then added just enough post-integration to get over the hump.
17. Burleigh Grimes
It was really tough to put up a nice ERA+ in the 1920’s, and he was an excellent hitter.
18. Bernie Williams
Quite possibly the best player for one of the game’s great dynasties. Was on a Hall-worthy track before a nearly Dale Murphy-level collapse at age 34. If his glove were as good as his rep, he’d have enough peak to get an elect-me spot. If it was as bad as the stats suggest, he’d be off-ballot entirely. Here’s the compromise.
19. Tommy Leach
We could do far worse--he is definitely above the established in/out line for MLB position players. Very similar plus-bat, God-glove profile to Nettles; legitimate peak seasons in 1902, 1907, and 1908. But a) CF was not as valuable in the teens as it is now; it was similar in scarcity to 1B b) his 1902 needs to be hit for league strength and c) segregation penalty.
Top returnees and notable newcomers:
John Olerud
Had two MVP-type seasons, and deserved his slick-fielding rep. But only had four other years at even a modest All-Star level, and was pretty close to average the rest of the time. The poor man's Keith Hernandez, I suppose. Bad baserunner.
Bob Johnson
Played in very easy-to-dominate leagues. Wouldn't be a terrible selection, but not an elite player of his era (since so many of them were in the Negro Leagues, his MLB stats look deceivingly shiny).
Dick Redding
The guy seems like a total question mark to me. Voting for him is just a shot in the dark. When we're missing information, we regress to the mean, which pulls him way out of consideration for me.
Bucky Walters
An illusion produced by his fielders and the war. I find his support baffling, given the availability of guys with the same ERA+ and more IP (Reuschel, Tiant, Willis) who don't have the defense and quality of competition issues.
Kirby Puckett
Would be an atrocious selection--see my comments on his thread. The poor man's César Cedeño or Fred Lynn. A joke candidate. His disappearance from the top ten speaks well of the evolution of our electorate. :)
Hugh Duffy
Era was too easy to dominate, and I don't give credit for team overperformance of component stats.
Atanasio Pérez
Ewww. Little more than a league-average player at his position for much of his career, and no value for the “hanging-on.”
Bus Clarkson
Man cannot live by MLE’s alone. His complete exclusion from the anecdotal/reputational Negro League pantheon, combined with the unreliability of MLE’s, leave him well short for me.
Fred McGriff
For a “pure” bat candidate (no meaningful defensive or baserunning contributions), he'd either need to have been a better hitter at his peak, a la Giambi (some seasons of 175 OPS+ or better) or to have lasted longer than he did as an above-average hitter, a la Palmeiro--his 1995-98 and 2000 seasons were just about worthless.
Tim Salmon
My 1995 AL MVP. Very nice, underappreciated, HoVG career.
Vic Willis
Only impressive if you don’t consider context. A lot of guys pulled off what he did back in the deadball era.
Sal Bando
A myth created by CHONE WAR’s misguided historical positional weightings, which assign to 1970’s 3B a lot of value that was actually earned by SS.
This seems...odd, considering (1) relatively little of his value is from his position per se (per BBRef - his position is only 27 runs above average for his career (out of 285 RAA)), and (2) Fangraphs actually gives him a larger positional adjustment - 34.4 runs.
I use a sort of peak-over career number with measurements including ink by playing time with a strong preference for players who had good in-season durability (non-exclusive). Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. My general baseball philosophy may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or any flavour of WAR in my rankings, although I do with interest at the BP catalog. Essentially, I follow this concept as I think a significant percentage of what contributes to winning baseball is not necessarily counted in box scores. This includes things like manager's prerogative (elective actions - steal signs, pinch hitters, batting order, pitching changes, etc.), and actions that would require a historical PBP analysis that is currently unavailable.
I search for what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B (Also not an easy position for longevity), nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager/general manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable? I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the "reliable" players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps. I find comprehensive ranking systems to be exclusive of much of what I see on the field of play - that is, the narrative of the game. The stats for me represent measurements of aspects of the game, but beyond that, the narrative has to fill out the gaps. i.e. - Why was this number lower than expected and that number higher? Combining the stats with the narrative gives me a baseball world-view that I am happy with and feel qualified to discuss.
I fully credit military time, but am very reluctant to provide minor league credit for anyone past the advent of the Live Ball era.
Some thoughts on this year's newly eligible - Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Schilling, Biggio and Sosa all make my ballot - including spots 1-5. Kenny Lofton is in the consideration set, but a ways away from the ballot at 64. He played for a long time, but his height is not well reflected in the numbers I am using.
Other players making my extended consideration set include:
- Julio Franco - 11th among shortstops. Spending close to half his career as a 2B dinged him a bit, but his long prime gets him a thorough look. That, and his incredible batting stance.
- Jose Valentin - 18th among shortstops. Solid hitter for a shortstop and some accounts have him as a top tier fielding SS as well. May look at again.
- Ryan Klesko - 16th among left fielders. Not a special player, per se, or one who lingered as an everyday weapon, but was solidly above-average for each of his five full seasons.
- Steve Finley - 29th among center fielders. Many gold gloves, but the numbers were not in agreement about his fielding. An average hitter at an up-the-middle position is a valuable thing to have, but not the type of player to build a roster around.
- Shawn Green - 15th among right fielders. Excited the huge Jewish population of Toronto during the 90's, Green was an exceptional hitter in his peak/prime. Unfortunately, the value accrued during that period was not enough to enter the discussion in a meaningful way.
- David Wells - 29th among starting pitchers. Greatly durable, but never stood out for his mound prowess beyond his marvelous command.
- Jason Schmidt - 52nd among starting pitcher. The list runs 53 deep. He was among the best in the game for a few years, but it did not last long enough, nor was there anything significant outside of that peak.
None of the rest are in my top 100.
This year, more than ever before, I can remember almost the entirety of each player's career, yet still found out some things about many of them when researching my ballot.
1) Barry Bonds - The best player I have had the pleasure of reviewing for a Hall of Merit ballot. That includes Aaron and Mays. When I first returned to Canada following a stint in the IDF, Bonds truly reminded me of the awe-inspiring joy that could be had from baseball. Sheer and utter dominance. (PHOM)
2) Roger Clemens - a lot closer to Bonds than I would have thought. What an amazing cohort. As with Bonds, Clemens was the greatest pitcher I have had the pleasure to research for this project. (PHOM)
3) Mike Piazza - Defense much better than was often presumed due to deceptively poor caught stealing rates. Best offensive catcher this side of Josh Gibson. Wonderful conversation comparing the two in Piazza's discussion thread. (PHOM)
4) Curt Schilling - While I found his personality oddly endearing when he was still active, it grates on me on his post-playing days. When the term "Bulldog" is used to describe a pitcher, I immediately think of Schilling. My system loves his in-season durability.
5) Craig Biggio - Biggio's prime was about as long as Schilling's was, but he gained no extra value from the rest of his career. Then again, he didn't need any more.
6) Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, marvelous glove. The epitomy of reliability. (PHOM)
7) Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. A summary of a reevaluation of some of our unelected pitchers in my high backlog (Bridges, Gomez, Redding, Walters) Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not get any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project.) But Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner (No - I'm not giving him extra credit for that). A deserving recipient of WWII credit. We have been especially splintered as to the backlog pitchers, and I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look. (PHOM)
8) Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
9) Kirby Puckett - I have read that some HOM voters consider Puckett to be a mistake of the BBWAA. I see where that sentiment may be emanating from, but I do believe that his election was earned. A wonderful ballplayer. (PHOM)
10) Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the one of the best available pitchers in my eyes (PHOM)
11) Bus Clarkson - A new defensive readjustment moves to the cusp. (PHOM)
12) Dale Murphy - A player that my system loves. At his best he dominated. That refers to the years between 1979-1988. That's a 10 year prime with a very high peak. Also demonstrated very good fielding ability. Could easily move up my ballot. (PHOM)
13) Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place. I now think his teens peak was all he needed. I want to be sure I am adequately valuating pitching, so Redding has moved up a few spots in my ballot. (PHOM)
14) Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
15) Sammy Sosa - Overrated by the money stats. Even so, a word-class peak.
16) Fred McGriff - He did not dominate as a bat to the extent of an Edgar Martinez, but consistent above-average performance and fielding that was moderate (I know that not everyone agrees), place the Crime Dog in the heart of my ballot. A better version of Jake Beckley. Here's hoping that it doesn't take McGriff quite as long to receive his dues. Recently dinged through new look at fielding. (PHOM)
17) Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the most dominant hitter (as compared to his peers), though. (PHOM)
18) Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
19) Tony Oliva - Career not as short as I thought. Had solid durability for the seasons he was around for. A world class hitter. (PHOM)
20) Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((20a)Andre Dawson))
21) Orlando Cepeda - Going with my numbers. I support him, but the strength of many of the new guys as well as the recently dregded up arguments for others drops him off ballot.(PHOM)
22) Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)
23) Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Very convincing peak and a glove that scores quite well. Career length is nice as well.
24) Don Mattingly - In the interest of my belief in a big hall for Cooperstown, I support Mattingly's induction. That said, for this project, he looks to be just the wrong side of the door. New look at fielding raises him up a few spots.
25) Albert Belle - Fits in rather nicely with the next two on this list.
26) Rocky Colavito - Good defensive showing showing moves him way up. I didn't expect that either.
27) Jack Clark - Marvelous hitter who had his uses in the field as well.
28) Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found for the slightly bigger hall that I dream of.
29) Wally Berger - super-underrated
30) Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((30a) Jimmy Wynn))
31) Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
32) Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system. I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he slots in over here. With relatively few big inning seasons (only three top ten finishes), my system can only give him so much love. I prefer the shorter career with the higher peak in this type of case. (see Guidry, Dean, Gomez)
33) Al Rosen - One more season of prime, and he is top 10
((33a) Jim Bunning))
((33b) Billy Pierce))
((33c) Graig Nettles))
34) Lee Smith - He didn't have the stellar peak of the closers around him, but his prime outlasted them both. And his peak is really not that far below Sutter's, at least.
35) Lance Parrish - Solid all round catcher. Proud member of the HoVG. Not quite the HOM though.
36) Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B. New look at his defense gives him big boost.
37) Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons. Excellent fielder, though.
38) Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...
39) John Franco - What can I say? All those LOOGY-moments...they added up. Not enough to get him in, but to at least be in the discussion.
40) Tony Fernandez - Mr. Blue Jay. Compares favorably to Rizzuto.
41) Bert Campaneris - Stupid me - I had somehow left him off my consideration set for years.
((41a) Dobie Moore))
42) Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((42a) Cupid Childs))
((42b) Roger Bresnahan))
((42c) Rollie Fingers))
43) Phil Rizzuto - Moves up a few spots with another look at his peak. Not as bad as I once considered.
44) Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
45) Tom Henke - Not a long career, but the Terminator was one of the best closers in the game at his peak. New DERA calculations boost him.
46) Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((46a) Don Sutton))
47) Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis. Further slight bump this year this another look at his extra credit seasons.
48) John Olerud - Olerud playing first base with his batting helmet on was an iconic Blue Jays image in my youth.
((48a) Rick Reuschel))
49) Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
50) Kevin Appier - Just ahead of Finley. I prefer the better rate to the longer career, but very, very close.
51) Chuck Finley - I remember being surprised when he didn`t come back for another season. I wonder what one more season of slightly above average performance would have done to his final ranking.
52) Mickey Welch
53) Bruce Sutter - Shorter career than the other modern closer candidates, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me - to a point.
54) Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace. And maybe better than Bresnahan given the proper credit.
55) Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
56) Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
((56a) Jake Beckley))
57) Jimmy Ryan
58) Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((58a) Charlie Keller))
59) Bernie Williams - will ballot higher just for being a critical part of a dynasty. Had Williams spent his entire career with nearly any other team in the majors, he would not have made nearly the impact on teh national stage.
60) Cy Williams
61) Brett Butler - Some are calling him an equivalent to Kirby. I'm not seeing it. At Kirby's best, he was the best. At Butler's best, he was very good. My system will always take the guy who was the best for a stretch.
62) Amos Otis - The end of the centrefield run.
63) Dolph Camilli - I give him a year of war credit, but he's still two more prime years away from making some noise. An underappreciated stud.
64) Kenny Lofton - I truly thought that he would have ranked higher than this, but with so much of his value tied to his baserunning and defense, I have a hard time putting him above players with similar overall value but more weighted to the offensive side. Hall of Very Good.
65) Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
((65a) Pete Browning))
66) Mark Grace - It's always fun when a player's name can fit with his on-field ability/persona. A Graceful first-baseman, with the stick and with the glove. Splitting hairs between him and Garvey. I think Garvey stuck out just that much more among his 1B peers.
67) Tony Perez - No appreciable peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats, but the stats we do have show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. How much was a scoop worth? I think it's worth a lot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little measurable harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
68) Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
69) Luke Easter - James Newburg made a very interesting case for Easter in his 2010 ballot. Earned a look in my consideration set and will make a point of studying him further and maybe look for similarities between his story and that of Bus Clarkson, many of our favourite what-if story.
70) Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake. Not that he wasn't a mistake, but he was not the worst one made.
71) George Kell
72) Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB history, and a decent hitter as well.
73) Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
74) Robin Ventura - Solid career quantity and quality, both at the plate and with the leather. Does not stick out enough with either to threaten for the HOM.
75) Sal Bando - Looked at his case again and am still comfortable with his place among the 3B cohort - prefer Elliott and Ventura. Going forward, I could loom into whether I underrate 3B as a group.
76) Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close. New look at defensive numbers drops Cey a fair bit.
77) Pie Traynor
78) Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
79) Johnny Evers
80) Elston Howard
81) Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
82) Bill Mazeroski
83) Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
84) Tommy Leach - With his recent rise in the standings, I took another look at him. I can see arguments that would have him around or even above someone like Brett Butler, or maybe even a bit more, but that would only mean 20-30 ballot spots for me, and not significant at this stage. Not being convinced either way, he stays down here. Fine player, but not HOM quality.
85) Vic Willis - A reexamination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
86) Thurmon Munson - see below.
87) Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
88) Johnny Pesky
89) Hippo Vaughn
90) Dave Concepcion - New look at defensive numbers gives Concepcion a bit of a boost.
91) Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent. Hurt by new DERA's.
92) George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
93) Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
94) Chet Lemon - My recent new defensive look demonstrated that Lemon may have been a bit overlooked. Very good player.
95) Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
96) Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
97) Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
98) Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter, not much else. What separates him from Cravath? Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
99) Denny Lyons
((99a) John McGraw))
100) George Van Haltren - Van Haltren is the big loser in the 1890's CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
101) Rabbit Maranville
102) Matt Williams - Definitely hurt by the strike of '94, but hurt more by missing half of the following season. His peak was high, but he was fairly one-dimensional in his offensive game outside of that 1993-96 period.
103)Ellis Burks - Better durability (say 100 extra PA in a given season twice) would have potentially given him a boost of 40 places on this list.
1. Barry Bonds, LF
2. Roger Clemens, P
Wasn't sure how the top two would come out until I looked at the numbers. Bonds, arguably the best player ever, is comfortably ahead of Clemens, arguably the best pitcher ever. Bonds: 182 career OPS+ (3rd overall), 1st 9 times, top ten 15 times. Clemens: 143 career OPS+ (10th overall), 1st 8 times, top ten 15 times.
3. Mike Piazza, C
4. Craig Biggio, 2B
I had them reversed in my prelim but since then, BB ref's revision of WAR narrowed the gap (Biggio now leads in unadjusted WAR 62.1 to 56.1) and a catcher bonus for Piazza put him over the top.
5. Curt Schilling, P
127 ERA+ in 3261 innings and 76.9 WAR both easily above Hall of Merit benchmarks.
6. "Cannonball" Dick Redding, P
I’ll keep making the case even though some are jumping off the bandwagon (while others shoot flaming arrows at it). #1 pitcher in 1914/15 (Cuban League), ‘17 and ’19. #1 player in 1917 (25.9 Win Shares in 153 innings). Top three in ‘12/’13, 1915, and ‘15/’16. Top ten in ’12, ’16 and ’21. Great peak, long prime.
7. Sal Bando, 3B
Best available third baseman. 119 OPS+, +36 fielding runs.
8. Vic Willis, P
117 ERA+ in 3996 innings. Big peak, solid prime.
9. Ben Taylor, 1B
Renowned as a gloveman during the deadball era, Taylor was a better hitter than previously thought. Seamheads gives him a slash line of .339/.400/.467 for an OPS+ of 163. Those come down a little in MLE translations but Taylor's got room to spare.
10. Don Newcombe, P
114 ERA+ in 2154 innings not enough but not the whole story. Negro League, minor league and military service fills out a solid career around his big years.
11. Luis Aparicio, SS
My hobby horse. His 51.7 WAR is no illusion. +92 baserunning, +28 reaching base by error or avoiding double plays, +149 fielding. Did everything well that isn't included in OPS+.
12. Tommy Bridges, P
Top ten in ERA+ 10 times, including 2nd in '32, '33 and '43.
13. Fred McGriff, 1B
Scratching my careerist streak but a 134 OPS+ in over 10,000 plate attempts is nothing to sneer at.
14. Sammy Sosa, RF
I was surprised that Sosa came out this low but he had a medium length prime and his career numbers aren't as impressive as his peak seasons. Still, he passes Bob Johnson and Hugh Duffy as the best outfielder on the ballot not named Bonds.
15. Bob Johnson, LF
Top ten in OPS+ 10 times.
Required Disclosures
Hugh Duffy was 12th last year before being pushed off the ballot by the new guys this year.
Luis Tiant was top 20 last year. He's still top 25 this year. Might be the best starting pitcher not on my ballot.
Phil Rizzuto has received votes from me in the past but his shortage of good years keeps him below other shortstops.
Gavvy Cravath deserves significant minor league credit but his one-dimensional play has kept him off my ballot so far.
Kenny Lofton debuts at 17. Should make the ballot in a few years after we work through the wave elections.
Finley, Franco and Wells are all Hall of Very Good.
Yes!
1. Bonds -- excellent hitter.
2. Clemens -- talented and durable pitcher. His two years with Toronto were a remarkable resurgence in my view. I thought he might have been done. The in Houston he did it again. Would be at the top of most ballots.
3. Piazza -- I believe his defence wasn't terrible. If that's the case, he is inner circle.
4. Biggio -- being worse than Alomar is faint damn.
5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.
6. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.
7. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat. No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.
8. Lou Brock – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley, who, of course, is now in our Hall.
9. Tony Perez – 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.
10. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. Joss is an outlier on my ballot and should not be used as a comparator to others. He is here because of the factors I have outlined in the first sentence of this commentary, which is not really how I have evaluated other pitchers. I think he is an anomaly and I don't want to kick him off the ballot just because he wouldn't qualify based on the factors I most often consider. He belongs in my pHoM, if I had one.
11. Sammy Sosa -- fits somewhere around here. Those five monster years were supported by a half dozen other quite good ones, which makes him both a peak and career candidate.
12. Fred McGriff -- most would agree with me that he is definitely better than Rice, with his substantially longer peak (though many of those people would have both 50 spots lower). I really like the consistent shape of his career. It doesn't bother me that he plied his trade among many other great firstbasemen (see my comment on Tiant).
13. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.
14. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.
15. Albert Belle – I thought I would love him. What a peak! I had hoped the peaksters would put him higher, but as a career voter, this is as high as he can get for me.
16. Curt Schilling -- his 9 year prime pretty much matches Belle's. For me, he suffers because I watched his career unfold -- unlike Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Piazza and even Sosa, I never thought Schilling was having a Hall of Merit career.
17. Luis Tiant – I don’t have a problem with 11+ pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions.
18. Sam Rice -- 2987 hits speaks to me.
19. Orlando Cepeda – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means 20+ spaces on this ballot.
20. Pie Traynor -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.
21. Harold Baines – 32nd all time in total bases, the DHing keeps him well behind Perez. I see him as a better candidate than Staub.
22. Jim Kaat
23. Lance Parrish
24. Jack Morris
25. Bernie Williams
26. John Olerud
27. Aparicio -- those 1000 extra outs separate him from Fox, as does the poorer defence.
28. Rusty Staub
29. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.
30. Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining.
31. Dizzy Dean
32. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.
Cravath -- I like the idea of Cravath but don't trust the translations enough to put him in my top 40.
Scooter -- I don't see him as a top 50 candidate, but I am sure I am undervaluing middle infield defence from his era. I get mocked for having Aparicio so high, but I'll take his longevity (and, I believe, a better glove) over the 11 points of OPS+ he cedes to Rizzutto.
Duffy -- I used to have him right beside Van Haltren and Ryan on my ballot and then I dropped him a bit. Either way, he is just outside my top 30. Let's call him 33.
Willis and Bando are not close for me.
Apologies for brief comments. Very strong new class. Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Schilling and Biggio on ballot. Sosa just off ballot (will be on in weaker year), Franco a bit further off. Wells just off the bottom of consideration set (Grimes without the career length). Lofton just off the bottom of consideration set (even with a modest CF bonus, not quite there.) Finley just sub-lofton
1. (N/A) Barry Bonds. Ruth obviously better, but so were Williams and Gehrig on my calculations. TB+BB/PA .677, TB+BB/Outs 1.167.
2. (N/A) Roger Clemens 4913 IP at an ERA+ of 142 Just over two Addie Josses. Young, Johnson and Grove were all better, and Nichols and Alexander it's arguable.
3. Mike Piazza. Hadn't realized how good a bat he was, and almost all played at C. Oddly enough, a better claim to #1 at his position than Bonds or Clemens (much better hitter than Berra or Bench.) 2127 hits @OPS+143. TB+BB/PA .585 TB+BB/Outs .891
4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2-3-5-2-2-1-2-1-2-1-3-1-2-1-2) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20. Electorate needs to take him more seriously. 121PP.
5. Curt Schilling. 3261 IP @ERA+ of 127 Not quite as good as Joss, a little better than Cicotte.
6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3-4-6-3-3-2-3-3-4-2-5-2-3-3-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades! 106PP
7. Craig Biggio 3060 hits, but at only 112 OPS+ TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .710. Very marginally better than Lombardi, given his longer career, but it's close.
8. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4-5-7-4-4-3-4-4
-5-3-6-3-4-5-6) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!
9. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5-6-8-5-5-4-5-5-6-4-7-4-5-7-7) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.
10. (N/A-8-8) Fred McGriff 2497 hits @134. TB+BB/PA .566 TB+BB/Outs .873 Slightly better than I had expected, and fully ballot-worthy, halfway up as we’ve cleared out the stronger backloggers.
11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7-9-10-6-7-5-8-7-7-5
-8-6-6-9-7) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.
12. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14
-14-13-N/A-14-13-15-11) Mickey Welch. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP. Will now be on and off ballot. 115PP, which elevates him a bit
13. (N/A-12-11-11-13-14-11-12-11-12-10-10-8-11-9-9-11-12) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat. 99PP
14. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-8-10-8-8-10-13) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings at an ERA+ of 123, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity. Only 88PP, which drops him a bit
15. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-13-14-13-14-11-11-9-12-10-10-12-14) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely. 88PP
16. (N/A-13-13-11-14-12-11-13-15) Elmer Smith Deduct 10% from Elmer's Western League 1890 and 1891 batting and slugging percentages we get 301/461 and 284/431 respectively. Comparing against the PL of 1890 gives an OPS+ of about 130, against the NL of 1891 gives an OPS+ of about 139. That gives him 14 years of full-time play; adjust those to 130 game seasons (which I did for 19th century players) gives him about 2140 hits at an OPS+ of 128-129 plus a pitching record of about 1400IP at an ERA+ of 113 and a W/L of about 96-72. Elmer baby, you're on my ballot, albeit towards the bottom of it. Only 97 years late.
17. Sammy Sosa 2408 hits @128OPS+. Not as good a hitter as Piazza, and without the catcher bonus. Doesn't have Elmer Smith's pitching, but a longer career than Frank Howard (though not as good) so goes here, though this may be a few places too high. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .830.
18. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10-10-12-13-10-11-10-11-9-9-12-15-13-12-14-N/A) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history, but down a little when I look at Belle. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.
19. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A-14-15-14-15-15-N/A-15-14-N/A) Hugh Duffy. We don’t have enough Beaneaters! However he’s not quite as good as Elmer Smith.
20. (N/A-15-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.
21. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13-12-14-15-12-13-12-13-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars, but he was significantly below Elmer Smith, either as hitter or pitcher.
22. (N/A-12-N/A) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best.
23. (N/A) Bernie Williams 2336 hits @125. Needs either a bit more quality or a bit more length. Just a smidgen less than Fred Lynn, who was also a CF (and who I’d MUCH rather see in!) TB+BB/PA .533 TB+BB/Outs .815, in a harder hitting era than Lynn.
24. Albert Belle 1726 hits @143. Short career, not quite Frank Howard but Frank was a little high. TB+BB/PA .597 TB+BB/Outs .896
25. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down. 84PP
26. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis Had slipped too far.
27. Gavvy Cravath 1134 hits@150. Add 50% to career and deduct 5 points for more years in early career makes him 1699 hits @145, still a very short career, but comparable to Hack. TB+BB/PA .527, TB+BB/Outs .835.
28. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-14-N/A) Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore.
29. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.
30. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138
31. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741
32. (N/A) Julio Franco. Better hitter than I had remembered and long career, mostly SS/2B. 2586 hits @111 OPS+ TB+BB/PA .466, TB+BB/Outs .686. Just a smidgen better than Perez, I think.
33. Tony Perez. Close to Staub but below him. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
34. Bill Madlock.
35. Toby Harrah
36. Ben Taylor.
37. Jim Kaat 77PP
38. Orlando Cepeda
39. Norm Cash
40. Jim Rice
41. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
42. Cesar Cedeno
43. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
44. John Olerud With 2239 hits@128 playing 1B he’s somewhere about here.
45. Lou Brock
46. Mickey Vernon
47. Thurmon Munson
48. Sal Maglie.
49. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
50. (N/A) Heinie Manush
51. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
52. Bob Elliott
53. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
54. Chuck Finley Obscure and slightly mediocre 200-173, but 3197 IP @115. Just below Reuschel and Tiant. Down a bit – I think 120ERA+ has got easier since ’90. 80PP
55. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
56. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
57. Harold Baines 2866 hits @120. TB+BB/PA .511 TB+BB/Outs .757. Lower than Staub and Perez.
58. Dennis Martinez 3999IP@106, 245-193. A lesser Kaat.
59. Jimmy Key
60. Dave Parker.
61. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
62. Gene Tenace
63. Kiki Cuyler
64. Deacon McGuire
65. Jerry Koosman.
66. Boog Powell
67. Ken Singleton.
68. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel. 78PP
69. Sal Bando. 1790 hits at 119 Very short career, so even with 3B bonus he doesn't make it.
70. Jim Fregosi.
71. Jack Quinn
72. Juan Gonzalez
73. Tony Mullane
74. Ron Cey
75. Jose Canseco.
76. Pie Traynor
77. Jim McCormick
78. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
79. Joe Judge
80. Spotswood Poles.
81. Buddy Bell.
82. Larry Doyle
83. Kirby Puckett
84. (N/A)Tony Fernandez. Turn him into an outfielder and he’s Kirby, so here he is. 2276 hits @101, TB+BB/PA .438 TB+BB/Outs .634
85. Ellis Burks 2107 hits @126; TB+BB/PA .548 TB+BB/Outs .820. Just within consideration set, rather than just outside it. Not that it matters.
86. Curt Simmons
87. Waite Hoyt.
88. Harry Hooper.
89. Vada Pinson
90. Gil Hodges
91. Jules Thomas.
92. Rico Carty.
93. Wilbur Cooper
94. Bruce Petway.
95. Jack Clements
96. Frank Tanana
97. Don Mattingley.
98. Orel Hershiser 204-150, 3130 IP@112. Not quite enough
99. Bill Monroe
100. Herb Pennock
101. Chief Bender
102. Ed Konetchy
103. Al Oliver
104. Darryl Strawberry.
105. Jesse Tannehill
106. Bobby Veach
107. Chet Lemon.
108. Lave Cross
109. Tommy Leach. Inferior to Childs, even if he’d played 3B his whole career, which he didn’t. Overall, Cross was better, too (2645@100 translates to 2645@ almost 120 with position bonus.) 2143 hits @109, which translates to at most 119 when you add say 50% of a 1900 3B bonus of 20. Not close.
110. Tom York
OFF: Phil Rizzuto. Not close—hugely overrated. OPS+ of 93, and not a particularly long career, even with war credit.
Lee Smith 71-92 +478 saves. 1289IP @132. Only 54PP so drops off consideration set.
1. Barry Bonds - Even if he never gets involved with BALCO, he is still an all-time great. The late career peak is ominous, but you are what the numbers say you are. I wasn't around for the elections of Ruth or Williams, so I haven't run them through my system, but Bonds would likely rank favorably.
2. Roger Clemens - So much about Clemens exuded dominance. The stare, the fastball, the willingness to pitch inside. Bit of a strange career shape. The truly great seasons are mixed in amongst merely excellent ones.
3. Curt Schilling - Personally, never liked the guy. Can not argue that he was a tremendous pitcher, and even with the slow start to his career, a worthy number 3 here, even without postseason credit, which he obviously deserves.
4. Mike Piazza - Take advantage of my catcher bonus to end up here. He's close to Schilling, but I have Schilling's peak as a bit better.
5. Craig Biggio - Most years he is in an elect-me spot. Tough crowd.
6. Johnny Pesky - With war credit, a no-doubt selection to the HOM.
7. Kenny Lofton - Yes, another newbie. No, it's not Sosa. Doesn't have a tremendous peak, (though 1994 was MVP-worthy), but was consistently awesome in center field.
8. Vic Willis - His down year in 1900 hurts him in my system. If 1900 were say a 3.5 WAR year, he'd move up to #3.
9. Sal Bando - Great peak. Probably hung around too long, but he certainly belongs in.
10. Bobby Bonds - Has a bonafide case for selection. Not nearly as good as his son, obviously. Great player in the beginning of his career, before the booze and injuries took their toll.
11. Sammy Sosa - Slow start to his career hurts his case, as did the tail end. There really isn't too much more to Sosa other than the peak, and his peak cant touch the top 4, and is similar to 5-8.
12. Kevin Appier - Tremendous in Kansas City. Seemed to beat the Yankees anytime I saw him pitch in the Bronx growing up. Hurt a bit by the malaise at the tail end.
13. Luis Tiant - Very close to Appier in my system. Were he a bit more consistent year-to-year, he would fare better.
14. John Olerud - Just a consistent hitter who provided excellent defense at first base. Didn't have tremendous home-run power, but something of a Keith Hernandez-lite. Something of a late peak guy, which didn't jive with my memory.
15. Phil Rizzuto - Deserving of war credit, and malaria credit. This is somewhere around where I draw the in/out line.
16-20: Hugh Duffy, Norm Cash, Bob Elliott, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly
Disclosures:
Reddding - Hurt by the tail end of the career, I don't think his peak measures up to Appier or Tiant - he's somewhere in between 25 and 35.
Cravath - Short career, and not much peak. In the bottom third of my consideration set.
Duffy - The recent changes to WAR calculation hurt him. I used to be one of Duffy's best friends. Not so much anymore.
2. Roger Clemens -
3. Mike Piazza - Piazza over Biggio for the catching bonus
4. Craig Biggio -
5. Sammy Sosa -
6. Gavy Cravath - Sad to see him get bumped so low on my ballot. Clearly used his park to his advantage. No doubt about it. However, I do not hold that against him.
7. Curt Schilling - a much wiser choice than Tiant in my opinion with his better peak
8. Bucky Walters - This is an odd player for me to like, as I normally don't go for the short career guys. Bucky just happens to have a really odd blend of career and peak to not only get on my ballot, but to make a strong showing on it. He's not Koufax by any means, but the thought process behind him is along the same lines.
9. Don Newcombe - I am obviously giving NeL and military credit. With that credit his 1948-1956 years are outstanding, and makes a very serious candidate out of him.
10. Bus Clarkson - I am willing to speculate he was better than Vern Stephens, and I really like Vern
11. Lee Smith - Clearly this is going to be unpopular, however, I give a lot of weight to career value and I do feel that relievers should be represented in the Hall of Merit as the other positions are.
12. Bruce Sutter - see Smith. Also similar to Bucky in the short career/high peak.
13. Vern Stephens - A shortstop that is consistently an All-Star and in the MVP consideration set is someone I can sure consider voting for.
14. Elston Howard - I really missed the boat on him earlier. Much like Newcombe, if you give him proper credit for
time he should've been a regular MLB catcher, you can't ignore him.
15. Luis Tiant - Schilling's addition to my ballot made me look harder at Tiant
What can you say when you have 6 newbies on a ballot? someone is getting left off. I considered Rizzuto, Redding, Duffy, Willis and Bando, but as they were mostly missing my previous ballots, they get knocked down even further with this years glut of newcomers. Lofton recieved serious consideration and came close to making the ballot.
Numbers with the pitchers are RA+ equivalent record with a big years bonus in brackets.
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens 359-187 [124] Really not a whole lot else to say about the top 2.
3. Mike Piazza What was the crack that someone made? That comparing Piazza, Biggio, and Schilling was like comparing apples, chairs, and Lithuania? Yeah, something like that. Historical uniqueness is what I see here. Biggio can be compared to Alomar and Whitaker and Sandberg, and Schilling is just another pitcher who's not Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, or Martinez. But there's really not anyone like Piazza. That year they chose Larry Walker as MVP ahead of him? Trade parks for those two for the year, and Piazza bats .400 with maybe 60 HR. So I go for the historical uniqueness, although to be honest, it does take a catcher bonus to get him here.
4. Craig Biggio I could have him lower, and I don't think I'd take him over Grich. And Bill James went way over the top with him. But there are a lot of little things that add up. The HBP, while not aesthetically pleasing, did add value. He didn't GIDP. He ran the bases well. He was durable.
5. Curt Schilling 227-135 [50] A clear "frontlog" candidate. Blows away Kevin Brown when you look at it by RA rather than ERA.
6. Kenny Lofton He looks like a very real candidate to me. He looks like Tim Raines - a little less offense than Raines although a similar style, and a lot more defense. He was the leadoff hitter for some of the best offenses of our time. (OK, that's not a good reason - we're not electing Woody English). Had his best seasons right at the beginning of his career, which makes you ask what he'd have look like had he played less basketball and come up as young as Raines did.
7. Sammy Sosa A peak candidate. Was a wild swinger in the early part of his career, and he declined quickly once his peak was over. But that peak is enough to get him here.
8. Luis Tiant 224-164 [35] Was #1 on my 2012 ballot.
9. Vic Willis 248-196 [44]
10. Frank Chance Betraying my career voter leanings. Didn't play much, but awfully good when he did play, and the best 1B of his own time. The new system gives him as much value above average as Palmiero.
11. Sal Bando
12. Buddy Bell Jumps up with recent revisions.
13. John Olerud
14. Johnny Pesky Includes WWII credit.
15. Fred McGriff
On my 2012 ballot but pushed off the 2013 version: Larry Doyle, Norm Cash, Lefty Gomez, Gene Tenace, Bobby Bonds. They may be back some day.
The following lines copied from my 2012 ballot:
Others close to the ballot.
C: -
1B: Orlando Cepeda.
2B: -
3B: Bob Elliott (a favorite of my old system), Robin Ventura, [Buddy Bell]
SS: Phil Rizzuto
Corner OF: Rusty Staub, Jack Clark, Frank Howard, Ken Singleton.
CF: Cesar Cedeno, Hugh Duffy, George Van Haltren, Jimmy Ryan, Dale Murphy I've supported the 1890's guys (particularly Van Haltren) for a long time, but I'm not all that sure any more that I'd take any of them over Cedeno and Murphy.
P: Bucky Walters, Kevin Appier, Lon Warnecki, Jerry Koosman, Tommy Bridges, Ed Cicotte, Wilbur Cooper, Tommy John, Urban Shocker.
The players on my ballot are ranked based upon points I've assigned to them. I've included the points in addition to their numerical ranking. For an explanation on how I calculate those points, see the 2013 ballot discussion thread. The big changes from my prelim ballot is that Johnny Pesky and Phil Rizzuto made my ballot after I gave them credit for years playing baseball in the Navy, knocking Art Fletcher and Bobby Bonds out of my top 15.
1) Barry Bonds (1079) Second best player ever in my system, behind Ruth and before Mays. Was the best player in MLB 7 times, tied with Mays. Only Ruth, at 9 such seasons, had more. 21 year prime, which ties him for 2nd all time in MLB, with Cobb and Cap Anson. The only player with more prime years was...
2) Roger Clemens (741) Yup, you guessed it, he had a 23 year prime, which is doubly amazing for a pitcher. I have him as the 12th best player of all time, and the 2nd best pitcher (the controversial part is he's actually ahead of Johnson, but behind Cy Young, but that's because IMO the uber stats give too much credit to 19th century pitching, something I haven't bother to correct since it's not affecting anyone on the ballot). Was only the best player in MLB once though (1997) and because of that he's still not very close to Bonds. Was the best pitcher in '86, '87, '90, '91, '92, and, of course, '97.
3) Mike Piazza (403) Not as quite as high on him as I'm sure many will be. Not quite a top 50 player in my system and only the 3rd best MLB catcher ever (behind Carter and Berra, but ahead of Bench). I haven't tried to work up Josh Gibson but I have little doubt he'd be higher as well. 11 year prime, which is on the short side for an upper tier HoMer. Was the best catcher in MLB from '93 to '98. Gets very little points from defense though, which hurts him. All this is without a catcher bonus, however, which I go back and forth on the correctness of. Since he's in an elect me spot already and there's no way he's catching Clemens (pun intended) even with a bonus, I won't bother applying one just to move him up my all time list.
4) Ben Taylor (386) I'm feeling a little better about his career than I was last year, with more years added to Seamheads. There's still a lot of uncertainty though, considering the last MLEs on his thread were done in 2004 before that data came to light, or even the HOF data was available (which is hard to interpret with no OBP numbers, but seems to indicate he was an above average hitter for the years the file contains and Seamheads doesn't have, excepting 1926). He seems to have been a top player in the NgLs in '14 and '21, and an above average player a bunch of other years, for a long prime. So my best guesswork is 15 year prime (75 points), 61 points each for '14 and '21 (which is more than I gave him for these years last year, but that's because I gave him no points for fielding, which was probably a mistake given his reputation), and 21 points each for each for '15, '17, '18, '20, '22, '24, '25, '27, and '28.
5) Hilton Smith (346) Using Alex King's WAR numbers on Smith's thread. Estimated 11 year prime (55 points), including 2 years in Bismark. Those numbers have him as the best player in baseball in '37 and '38 (93 points each for those years). I've also slotted him in as a top pitcher in '39, '40, '41, '46, and '47 (21 points each). He has really benefited, compared to last year, from a) my bumping up the point values for pitchers and b) my rereading his thread and realizing I needed to add in points for him being a very good hitter at his position.
6) Dave Bancroft (341) Was on my list last year, but has benefited from my change of uber systems by moving up from 11th. He's always looked like a good fielder in DRA, but he gains points in both offensive and fielding categories in the new mix of systems, so they just see him as an all around better player. Only 10 year prime but best MLB shortstop in '15, '20, '21 and '22 (and 2nd in '23, '25 and '26). Best fielder in MLB in '17, '20 and '23.
7) Craig Biggio (331) 14 year prime. Was a poor defender at 2B which costs him points. Was a top 2% player in MLB in '94, '95, '97 and '98. Was the best secondbaseman in those same years.
8) Ned Williamson (326) Short career, at least by modern standards, with a 9 year prime. The big winner from last year to this year, as he gains more points than any player in my top 100 both years other than Tommy Bond (who was also helped by my tweaking points for pitchers). Benefits from the new mix of uber systems by now being the best 3rd baseman in MLB 3 times (only had him as that once on last year's list): '81, '82 and '85. Also is seen as a good fielder in more years, bolstering his total.
9) Johnny Pesky (318) Based on MLB career, with 7 year prime, wasn't in my top 100, and I had no intentions of voting for him. But when I looked at the years that bookended the 3 years he spent playing ball in the Navy, I realized they were far and away his best years in my system; in fact, of the 168 points he had for his career, 100 of them came in those two years: 1942 and 1946. After that his value declined because his defense was never the same, though hit OK for a SS (or 3B) for several more years. So giving him the average of '42 and '46 in my system for 3 more years is 150 more points and he ends up here on my ballot.
10) Pie Traynor (315) 11 year prime. Actually gains 2 points from last year, when I had him in an elect me spot at 3rd, but the new guys plus Bancroft, Williamson, and the NgLers leapfrogged him. Loses points in fielding compared to last year, which is not suprising since rWAR hates his defense (which is at odds with his reputation and with his DRA numbers) but actually gains number of times he was best MLB 3rdbaseman (from 4 to 6): '23, '5, '27, '29, '31, '32.
11) Sammy Sosa (315) Just doesn't stand out from the backlog really. 11 year prime, and only 3 times a top 2% player (1998, 2000 and 2001). The best RF in MLB those same years. Add in a modest amount of fielding points racked up in his younger years and there's not much else.
12) Tommy Leach (299) My number one player last year. 13 year prime. Had earned more points via fielding than any other player in my top 100 last year, except for Buddy Bell (who wasn't as good of a hitter, in context), but under the new mix of DRA and the fielding components of the uber stats he drops below Bell, Joe Tinker, Davy Force, and Rabbit Maranville in fielding value amongst my consideration set, which explains some of his fall. Still a very good fielder at 3B according to DRA (which makes me wonder why he was moved), and later excelled at CF.
13) Buddy Bell (297) And speaking of Buddy Bell, I'm not suprised he's on my ballot now as rWAR loves him. 13 year prime. Unusual amongst players in my top 15 in that he was never the best at his position (the one year he was a top 2% player, 1981, which was also the only year he finished 2nd at 3B, was one of the years Mike Schmidt was the best player in MLB). But as the previous entity states, picks up a ton of points from his fielding.
14) Phil Rizzuto (292) He had an 8 year prime in MLB, and is the only player on my ballot, other than Bonds and Clemens, to have once been the best player in MLB, which he did in 1950. I've credited him for 3 years spent playing ball in the Navy, by giving him 80 adjustment points. This was done by looking at the points he got in my system in '41 (35), '42 (42), '47 (30), and '48 (0), getting an average of 26.75 and then using that figure to credit him for 3 additional years.
15) Curt Schilling (291) 14 year prime, which is pretty long for a pitcher. Was never the best pitcher in MLB, but was consistently amongst the top 30 starters, including the 2nd best pitcher three times: '01, '02 and '04.
1. Barry Bonds: I have him just barely below Ted Williams, but it’s close enough that I could see the argument for the other way. His time as a Pirate alone could probably get him on a decent amount of HOM ballots. I would have liked his father to be on my ballot also just for fun, but Bonds elder ended up 18. Would he be universally considered the best player ever if the Pirates had let him stay in CF?
2. Roger Clemens: I always bemoaned the fact that he played for the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees but somehow never stopped with the Orioles to complete his AL East tour. Clemens, Walter Johnson, and Cy Young are in a league of their own in regards to eligible MLB pitchers (I’m unsure if Satchel Paige or Smokey Joe Williams reach that level or not, will have to look into it).
3. Mike Piazza: I have Piazza as one of the top five catchers ever, along with Josh Gibson, Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, and Gary Carter (not necessarily in that order) and the best hitting catcher ever besides Gibson. It says something about who he’s with on the ballot that he can’t crack the top two.
4. Curt Schilling: Pales compared to the top three, but compared to the HOM he fits in very nicely. Ranks better than the pitchers of the 90s we’ve inducted so far: Kevin Brown, David Cone, and Bret Saberhagen (although yes Saberhagen also overlaps the 80s). The second pitcher on this ballot I used to fantasize about being an Oriole, mostly because he had been and then we traded him away (and other first year candidate Steve Finley) in what turned out to be an absolutely disastrous trade.
5. Craig Biggio: Fits into the bottom half of HOM 2B, but is clearly deserving (although it might take him awhile to get in). I loved his grittiness, even if it did make him seem better than he was (especially on defense). I will forgive the BBWAA for taking so long to vote in Jeff Bagwell, however, if both go in this year.
6. Hilton Smith: Alex King has done an excellent job translating the stats available and showing that Smith’s stats merit consideration from the electorate. I would like to add that a good chunk of his career was in the 1940s, one of the decades with the weakest pitching, and that Smith comes with a great reputation. He wasn’t Satchel Paige, but that’s ok.
7. Ben Taylor: I think he was the best first basemen of the 1910s and comps well to Keith Hernandez—great defensively and good offensively thanks to a great on-base percentage. Considering Taylor played at a time where 1B defense was more important than in Hernandez’s time, and he played during the deadball era where power hitting was not really an option, he seems like a good selection for the Hall of Merit. The Seamheads data also helps confirm Taylor’s case. I rank Smith ahead of Taylor because I generally find pitchers to be more valuable than first basemen, and DL from MN has made a good point that the HOM is a little light on pitching.
8. Vic Willis: I think he compares similarly to Rube Waddell, and favorably to Joe McGinnity and Mordecai Brown, all Hall of Meriters, and I believe Willis deserves enshrinement as well. Interestingly enough, 6-8 on my ballot are Hall of Famers.
9. Sammy Sosa: It seems crazy that a guy who hit over 600 home runs would only place ninth, but such is the breaks on being part of a historically good class, and because of the era he played in. He might not have even made the ballot if not for his plus defensive work at the beginning of his career. Also crazy how quickly his reputation went from being a “savior” of baseball to a “cheater” of baseball. Unlike Clemens and Schilling, Sosa did come to play for the Orioles after achieving greatness…but he was absolutely awful (not that it affects my ranking, I’m just bitter).
10. Kenny Lofton: Virtually tied with Sosa. I ranked Sosa ahead because Sosa had the best individual season (his 2001, although Lofton’s 1994 was fantastic) and because Sosa’s value was more consistent among the different systems than Lofton’s. So the 600 HR guy beats the 600 SB guy. That being said, I loved watching Lofton play. I can still remember him scoring the game winning run in the insane 15-14 eleven inning game against the Seattle Mariners on August 5, 2001 where the Indians were down 12 after 6 innings. Lofton went 4-6 with a walk and three runs scored in that game.
11. Ned Williamson: A great defensive 3B/SS who hit at a solid clip, he seems to be the IF left out of the 1880s. I think he is at least as worthy as Hardy Richardson, if not more so, and one could make the argument that he was the best 3B of the 1880s. He’s fallen on my ballot due to a) all the great new-timers and b) a belief that I overrated him last year. I’m more comfortable with his spot here, but I still do believe he is worthy of the HOM.
12. Carlos Moran: His offense was very valuable at his position in his era and like Taylor he is being validated by the Seamheads data. However, I can’t put him ahead of Williamson because of Williamson’s better defense and the relative uncertainty of Moran’s numbers.
13. Don Newcombe: As sunnyday2 has indicated in the past, Newcombe needs everything added on—war credit, racial segregation/minor league credit, hitting credit, etc. to qualify, and I think Newcombe has enough to be worthy, especially considering the 50s are also not stacked with elite pitching.
14. Buddy Bell: I know he had a lot of great contemporaries and that there’s very possibly a systemic issue with rating that era’s 3B vs. SS, but I can’t put Bell any lower than this. A universally regarded top-notch fielder with an above average bat, I didn’t appreciate until reevaluating him how good his 1981 was when adjusted for the strike. For me, he comps really well with Graig Nettles. Nettles has a career 111 wRC+ in 10,226 PA with excellent defense, while Bell has a career 108 wRC+ in 10,009 PA with superb defense. You can argue Nettles was better, but I don’t see how you can argue he is over the HOM line while Bell is below.
15. Cannonball Dick Redding: He isn’t getting the boost from Seamheads that Taylor and Moran are, but I don’t think it derails his case. I still think he settles in solidly at the bottom tier of pitchers worthy of the Hall of Merit.
Phil Rizzuto: Would be #16 on my ballot. With the war credit, I think he is very similar to Willie Randolph—the numbers aren’t overwhelming but they are close enough considering his valuable position. It makes me sick that I can’t find room for him on my ballot, and even sicker that if we’d just done elect-4 last year, this wouldn’t be a problem.
Luis Tiant: Would be #17 on my ballot. I reevaluated him and found I had been overrating him. Still worthy of making the HOM at some point, but I don’t know when that will be.
Hugh Duffy: Duffy is one of my favorite players, but unfortunately I don’t think he deserves induction in the Hall of Merit. I think he is more deserving than Sam Thompson, however.
Gavvy Cravath: With appropriate minor league credit he comes very close, but ultimately falls just short. However, he is one of many players that I didn’t know about before I started following this project, and I’m glad I know who he is, and it wouldn’t be outrageous if he made it.
Sal Bando: I’m not exactly sure how you can vote for Bando without voting for Bell, and I’m not sure how you can rank Bando ahead of Bell. Yes, Bando was a better hitter but Bell was a much better defender and played longer. All the WAR systems I look at are more favorable to Bell, and that’s even without compensating for 1981 being strike-shortened.
Now the also-rans and the required disclosures.
16) Art Fletcher (288) I certainly wasn't expecting to be voting for this dude, and now I'm not. Fellow shortstops Rizzuto and Pesky leapfrogged him since my prelim ballot so he just misses out. Has he ever gotten a vote before or would I have been the first? He was in my top 100 players last year though, so it's not a complete suprise. Modest 10 year prime. Half of his gain since last year is that the system now sees him as the best fielder in MLB for two years: '18 and '19. He was also the best SS two years, though it was two different years: '13 and '16. Oddly, his career year, 1917, when he posted a very nice 7.2 rWAR, 7.4 bWAR, 27 Win Shares and 12.5 WSAB he was third at his position thanks to Rogers Hornsby and Ray Chapman. And only the 14th best overall player that year (which netted him no points in my system) thanks to those two guys, Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker, a lot of great pitching performances, and the fact that the two WARs ranked him signifcantly higher than the two Win Share based systems (which I supposed is pretty typical for a SS, thanks to the different emphasis put on defense).
17) Bobby Bonds (286) 12 year prime. 3 times among the top players in baseball, and the best at RF ('70, '71, and '73).
18) Joe Tinker (281) Another excellent fielding, relatively light hitting SS in my top 20, and probably the best fielder of them all, but he misses my ballot. 13 year prime. Only once the top fielder in MLB (1904), but gets credit for being a top fielder in MLB for 14 years, more than anyone else in my top 100 (Bell still ends up with more fielding points though, because he was the best fielder at his position 6 times, while Tinker was only 4 times: '04, '05, '08, '09).
19) George Foster (276) Very short prime, only 8 years long, even though he played much longer. Three times a top 2% player: 1977, 1978, and 1981. Best LF in MLB twice: '76 and '77. Was a good defender early in his career, before an erosion of his skills, and was actually the best fielder in MLB in '71.
20) Jack Clark (276) 13 year prime. Best MLB player at three different positions over the course of his career: RF in 1983, 1B in '87 and DH in '88. Only once a top 2% player: 8th best player in 1987. Very little fielding value.
21) Frank Chance (275) Another short prime guy at 9 years. Was on my ballot last year, but lost about 25 points in change of uber systems, primarily because he went from being a top 2% player 4 times down to 2 times: 1903 and 1906. Was best player at 1B in 6 seasons though (every year from 1903 to 1908).
22) Carlos Moran (268) His stats on seamheads shows a player who was among the best in the Cuban League during his prime, but he also has some years with very low PAs. I'm not sure if this was due to injuries, splitting time between the winter and summer leagues, or what. 12 year prime (60 points). 15 points each for '07, '10, '11, and '13. 37 points each for '03, '05, '06, and '12.
23) Bus Clarkson (265) In looking at the WAR numbers Alex King calculated (based on Dr. Chaleeko's MLEs) in his thread, I'm struck by how his best years came in '53 and '54, when he was 38 and 39, respectively. That's not impossible, but very few players do something like that. Additionally, his raw hitting numbers don't seem that much more impressive than what he was doing in the American Association previously. My gut feeling is that something is off here. Having said that, in looking over his thread, it seems like a lot of this has been discussed. Additionally, even if his numbers are too high, the regression aided lack of peak will hurt him in my system. So I'm taking the numbers as is, as a compromise with myself. So a 16 year prime (80 points). 11 points for '41, '43, '44, '47, and '48. 22 points for '40, '42, '45, '53, '54. Additional 10 points each for '53 and '54.
25) Diomedes Olivio (263) This is just a pure guess, as I'm not even going to try to figure out yearly totals for him. I'd love to vote for him, based on his overall reputation, his work in the Dominican and the minors, his being very effective in relief in '62 as the oldest player in MLB, and his reputation as being a good hitter for a pitcher. But I lack too much context for his Dominican work, and even those stats don't start till he was 32, so I can't pull the trigger on him. Clearly had a very long prime though.
29) Burleigh Grimes (256) Would have been on my ballot with 1 point more than Schilling, but I manually adjusted him down. The first player I've done so to, as I don't like to make manual adjusments unless it's giving credit for years playing outside of MLB, otherwise why bother with a system? However, his case for top 15 placement was entirely driven by his fielding numbers. Since DRA includes no pitching fielding numbers and none of the uber stats I use calculate a fielding component for pitchers, his fielding ranks were based on Pete Palmer's fielding runs formula, which I don't have a lot of confidence in (espcially for pitchers). I probably should exclude pitching fielding numbers altogether from the system (I'll have to put that on my todo list for next year), but for most pitchers it makes little difference other than giving them a few more points (and I can hardly be accused of voting for too many pitchers). Grimes, however, managed to pick up 72 points from fielding his position (Schilling, OTOH, manages 0 points and Clemens only 4, by way of comparison). He must have been fielding a lot of ground balls compared to his contemporaries. That many points from fielding for a pitcher seemed unreasonable, and voting for him ahead of Schilling based on those shaky numbers doubly so, so I cut them in half, which still puts him 2nd in fielding credit amongst pitchers in my top 100, behind Carl Mays.
48) Gavvy Cravath (229) 135 points before minor league credit, which is way out of my consideration set. Only 6 year MLB prime. Manages to pick up 0 points from fielding. Giving him 15 points for prime credit for years 1909 to 1911, and then 15 points each for 1909 and 1910, and then 49 points for his big year in 1911. Ends up with 229 points, which puts him into my top 100, but not very close to the ballot.
53) Hugh Duffy (225) Between Jesse Barfield and Jim Devlin. 9 year prime, one year as a top 2% player: 1894. That was the only year he was best at his position. In fact, about a third of his total points came from 1894, so he just didn't have enough other great years.
58) Vic Willis (220) Between Norm Cash and Bernie Williams. 11 year prime, best player in baseball in 1899, couple other good years, and not a lot else. Wasn't a good hitter for his position.
79) Luis Tiant (200) Gained about 50 points from last year from the change in uber systems and the general bump to pitchers, so is now in my consideration set, when he wasn't before, but still not very close to the ballot. Had a 14 year prime but his lack of peak kills him. Was never the best pitcher in MLB. Was a top 2% player twice: '68 and '74. Was a top pitcher in '67, '68, '72, '73, '74, and '76.
108) Dick Redding (184) Stats at seamheads.com are up and down. Tail end of career covered in HOF file has little value. Seemed to have a monster 1917, and good years in 1912, 1916, 1919 and 1921, but not much else. Estimated 7 year prime (35 points). 81 points for 1917 (may be a bit too generious, as I have him as the best player in baseball). 17 points each for '12, '16, '19, and '21.
Kenny Lofton (182) Pretty long prime at 13 years, but almost no peak. Just outside my top 100.
Sal Bando (150) 150 points. Not in my top 100 consideration set. 11 year prime, only once a top 2% player: 1969. Only once the best 3B and doesn't get a lot of points from other categories. Basically, his problem is that rWAR loves him... and the other 3 uber systems I use really don't. Career totals: 57.1 rWAR 36.85 gWAR 280 Win Shares 117 WSAB. His rWAR figure would put him at 165 or so all time, which, even with a peak that was basically one year (1969), is a very good candidate, but that 280 Win Shares would put him right around 250th all time, and without much of a peak, and the other systems see him even worse (about 320th in WSAB and 400th or so in gWAR). Not to mention DRA hates his defense, seeing him as a below average fielder, so he can't even pick up any points there.
Methodology
1. I use Baseball Reference WAR adjusted for season length, with Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis (DRA) runs for the fielding component. Specifically, I use Humphreys' Talent Pool Adjusted Runs, which detrends the variance in fielding ability at each position over time.
2. I measure both consecutive and non-consecutive 3/5/7/10-year peak. For both, the formula itself is = (career WAR) + (best season * 3.333) + (top 3*3.333) + (top 5*2) + (top 7*1.429) + (top 10) + ((career WAR-top 10)*0.5)). This isn't rooted in any statistical justification; I just ran the numbers and it looked to have face validity.
3. I am inclined to give minor-league credit. I don't have systematic translations for anything earlier than 1978 (I am eyeballing the numbers), but I am conservative about how much individual seasons are worth. Almost without exception, they fit into the player's early-career shape; no one is going to be seen as a 5 WAR player for something they did in AAA if they took a few years to become a 3 WAR player. The way I see it, we are trying to measure a player's full professional record, and any minor-league season that translates to a decent-to-good major-league season should be credited.
Practically speaking, I limit credit to AAA (or what was called AA about 50-70 years ago) with hardly any exceptions. But exceptional AA seasons, like Gene Tenace's 1969, can earn credit. In it, he was a 22-year-old catcher who smote the Southern League to the tune of .319/.434/.638 (214 unadjusted OPS+) in 89 games.
4. For Negro Leaguers, I have tried my best to make best guesses as to their career WAR where actual data or MLEs are unavailable. Different cases have different data, so I will do my best to explain in each ballot comment.
5. Second basemen, third basemen and shortstops get no more than a five percent positional bonus, and catchers get a 19 percent bonus. The proportion of the bonus they receive is equal to the bonus, multiplied by the percentage of defensive games played at qualifying positions.
6. Modern catchers also receive Sean Smith's regressed estimates of game calling runs. Since there is no observed relationship between Total Zone fielding runs and game calling runs, I am assuming this does not lead to a bias against catchers not in the Smith dataset.
The Ballot
1. Barry Bonds - Damn, what fun. Greatest player ever.
2. Roger Clemens - Greatest pitcher ever. Can you imagine dead ball hitters trying to deal with Clemens' splitter?
3. Mike Piazza - Sean Smith's regressed estimates of catcher game calling runs gives Piazza +112 runs, making his defense a (small) net positive. Makes sense to me; the high-scoring environment probably created a ceiling effect for how much he could cost his teams in the running game. The gap between Piazza and Schilling is the same as the gap between Schilling and about 25th place.
4. Curt Schilling - Was as good at pitching as he is bad at business. I wish, tongue-in-cheek, that I could knock him down on account of it—my fiancée's contract with the RI Economic Development Corporation wasn't renewed after the 38 Studios failure created budget uncertainty for the upcoming fiscal year. The way I see it, Curt owes me a couple of Gs to pay for our wedding. Perhaps a first-ballot HOM selection to tout on ESPN is worth it to you, gehrig38?
5. Buddy Bell - Tremendously underrated candidate. Outstanding defender and fine hitter for a long time at a position where it's very difficult to hang on. One of the top ten third basemen ever to play the game.
6. Hilton Smith - Ranks similar to Redding, based on Alex King's MLEs. I place him above Redding on the strength of the Negro League data made available by the Hall of Fame.
7. Dick Redding - I assign his Seamheads/Baseball Gauge WAR, discounted 10%, to seasonal playing time estimates constructed by Alex King. His ballot placement is sensitive to the league discount assumption, but a more conservative estimate would probably still land him on the ballot.
8. Ben Taylor - Same procedure as with Redding, though I used KJOK's MLEs as estimates for playing time. Regular all-star type with eight seasons between 4-6 WAR, then he has that big 1914 season with the bat and with the arm, which comes out to 12 WAR in my estimation. The Seamheads data helped me figure out someone who I have missed the boat on for several years!
9. Vic Willis - Perhaps the last dead ball pitcher who really needs to be inducted.
10. Ed Williamson - Fantastic defensive third baseman who could hit, and played more than a little shortstop. Best remaining candidate from the pre-1893 era.
11. Sammy Sosa - Close with Biggio, but DRA helps him. Was a fine enough athlete to play a creditable center field when he was younger.
12. Craig Biggio - Surprised how much the WAR revisions hurt him. Might be one of the worst defenders to stick at second base long term, but cannot place him lower than here. Gets a slight catcher bonus.
13. Roy White - DRA makes the case that White is perhaps the best defensive left fielder ever, even in spite of his weak arm. Outstanding prime from 1968-1976, with 56 WAR, anchored by 8 WAR seasons in 1970 and 1971.
14. Kevin Appier - Great prime, and is in the Stieb/Saberhagen/Cone family of pitchers for whom it would take a stathead revolution to sniff the HOF. A 169-137 record and 121 ERA+ in 2600 innings doesn't "feel" like a HOFer (or a HOMer), but his 1990-1997 run (47 WAR, with 8 WAR (1992) and 9 WAR (1993) seasons) stacks up very well in a deep era for ace pitchers. Only Maddux and Clemens were better in Appier's prime, and the gap is closer than one might guess.
15. Jim Sundberg - Alongside Fisk, Bench, Carter, and Rodriguez on the short list of the best defensive catchers ever. Adding catcher game calling runs to DRA gives Sundberg +225 fielding runs for his career. Almost the entirety of his value (47 out of 51 WAR) comes in an 11-year run (1974-1984), thanks to his passable bat (93 OPS+) and very high level of in-season durability (average of 140 games caught). Five seasons with 4-6 WAR, with additional seasons at 7 (1981) and 8 (1977) WAR. The WAR cited is the raw amount Sundberg has in my system; he gets a positional bonus on top of this.
Returnees and Notables
Luis Tiant - The best of the top returnees not to make my ballot. He's among a tight group of pitchers just off of it, along with Urban Shocker, Wilbur Wood, and Dwight Gooden.
Gavy Cravath - Yet another guy just off the ballot. However, he's behind Buzz Arlett and Bobby Bonds among corner outfielders.
Phil Rizzuto - Paired with Johnny Pesky in my evaluations. Phil stayed on SS longer and was a better fielder, while Johnny was the better hitter—six of one, half a dozen of the other. Not far from the ballot.
Kenny Lofton - DRA knocks him off the ballot, though he is also close.
Hugh Duffy - The gap between Lofton and Duffy is about the same as between Lofton and the ballot. Can't see Duffy ever making my ballot.
Sal Bando - Another DRA victim. Buddy Bell should be way ahead of him and, frankly, it isn't close. Can't see Bando making my ballot, either.
Career voter. In fact, I am still unclear how you can NOT be a career voter when makign decisions based on careers, as any Hall of this type clearly is...
PHoM inductees match my 1-2-3...
1. Barry Bonds - The best hitter in my lifetime, at least. Possibly the best hitter ever... possibly...
2. Roger Clemens - See #1 but substitute the word pitcher for the word hitter.
3. Craig Biggio - One of the most udnerrated players in my lifetime. I know that he isn't going to get in this year due to Piazza being overrated (imo), but that's life. He would be #1 on many years.
4. Tommy Leach - Overlooked. (PHoM - 1921)
5. Fred McGriff - Career voter, remember? Underrated. (PHoM - 2010)
6. Mike Piazza - Suddenly I see people defending his abilities as a catcher to justify putting him in as a hitter. He was a great hitter. He was a terrible catcher. He should have been moved to another position early in his career, but if he had been people wouldn't look at his offense in quite the same light. He will get in my PHoM eventually (maybe even next year) but he doesn't get in before Biggio.
7. Tony Perez - Another career that doesn't get enough love. That is a common refrain from me. (PHoM - 1996)
8. Sammy Sosa - There is more to life than homeruns... but homeruns are good too...
9. Bobby Bonds - I wonder if he would get more suport (not just in here) if his son wasn't who he is... (PHoM - 1987)
10. Hugh Duffy (PHoM - 1930)
11. Mickey Welch (PHoM - 1929)
12. Vic Willis (PHoM - 2005)
13. Bernie Williams (PHoM - 2012)
14. Buddy Bell (PHoM - 2012)
15. Bill Monroe
16-20. McCormick, Cash, Bando, Redding, Brock
21-25. Finley, Grace, Grimes, Olerud, Streeter
26-30. Johnson, Gleason, Greene, John, Mullane
Norm Cash, Dick Redding and Mark Grace were all on my ballot last year but have dropped off.
2013 ballot - our (and my) 117th since we began this version of the journey in 2003 (real time) with an "1898" ballot.
props to any other remaining "voting Ripkens" as well.
I had 2012 electees Palmeiro-Reuschel-Cone 3-13-1 on my ballot.
The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3, WAR, and even more newfangled stats, which are intriguing tools but which still are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my fondness (but not blind allegiance by any means, especially where durability is an issue) for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs/IP per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all the big stars played almost every day or pitched a ton of innings.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, and prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me. Unlike a lot of voters, I've long ago run out of longtime "pet projects" to tout aggressively for the Hall of Merit.
I voted for Joe Jackson on his first try, and Pete Rose, and Mark McGwire - and these guys as well:
1. BARRY BONDS - 182 OPS+ is third-best career figure behind Babe Ruth and Ted Williams, 3 pts ahead of Lou Gehrig. Is 6th in both OBP and SLG. Nine OPS titles. Never top 6 in doubles, yet is 14th all-time there. 2,558 BB is 368 more than runnerup Rickey Henderson. 33rd in SB, ahead of Aparicio, Keeler, Moreno, Bobby Bonds... Drew 755 (!) walks in 573 games from 2001-04 as he picked up the last four of his 7 MVPs. His 688 IBB are more than No. 2 Hank Aaron and No. 3 Pujols combined - 128 more. Career high in R is 129 - which he did four times from 1993-2004. 2nd in extra base hits to Aaron. Ranks just 200th in Double Plays, though. Led in HR only three times and R and RBI only once (but ranks 1st/3rd/4th career). And didn't even reach 3,000 hits! Will vote him No. 1 anyway.
2. ROGER CLEMENS - Not only 7 Cy Youngs, but in top 3 on three other occasions. 14 times in top 5 in ERA+, including 1986-92. 11 times in top 5 in Ws, an imperfect stat but still. 6 shutout titles and 5 K titles. 3rd all-time in Ks. Has 11 seasons of double-digit Ws and single-digit Ls, which looks nice on his bb-ref page. Only led league in IP twice, but I'll vote him No. 2 anyway.
3. MIKE PIAZZA - I like him better than some, but no way to move him higher. Defensive deficiencies quite overstated imo; just CS problems really. Even if was a LF, has a 143 OPS+ in 7745 PA. Guys at 140-145 include Snider, LWalker, JGiambi, ECollins, Mathews, Killebrew. NL C Silver Slugger 10 times in a row, 1993-2002. Top 4 in AVG, 1995-98 and .308 for his career, just like Ashburn, and Cano pre-decline phase.
4. CURT SCHILLING - Eminently qualified for both HOM and HOF. 127 ERA+, just ahead of Sabathia, Smoltz, Palmer and matching Seaver, Bob Gibson, King Felix - in 3261 IP, 5 top 3s there and more IP than Ford or 3-Finger Brown (or 6-Finger Alfonseca). Bloody Sock only a bonus for HOF, but both groups drool at 11-2, 2.23 ERA in 133 postseason IP. Also EXTREMELY low number of UER, which I don't always pay heed but here you can't miss it.
5. CRAIG BIGGIO - As a regular, position in those 19 seasons was 3 as C, 11 as 2B, then CF, LF-CF, then 3 as 2B again. People get too focused on him as a career candidate who had some compiler-itis; real story is his six-yr peak of 1993-98 in his initial 2B phase. Played nearly every game (2 strike seasons confuse this issue), and here Offensive WAR works well in seeing him in top 4 in NL in 4 of those. 5th all-time in 2B; ahead of FRobby, Yaz, ECollins, TWilliams, Foxx, Wagner, Mantle...
6. FRED MCGRIFF – Liked him by a nose last year over Palmeiro, who has a weaker peak but a longer prime. I took Crime Dog by a nose, but it’s ohsoclose. McGriff 134 OPS+ in 10174 PA to Palmeiro’s 132 in 12046 PA. I love the 157-166-153-147-166-143-157 peak from 1998-94, all in 600+ PA or equivalent.
7. SAMMY SOSA - Here the big prime is 5 yrs, and it's more obvious because there wasn't a ton before or after. This is his case: Very durable with OPS+s of 160-151-161-203-160. Just enough thanks to 203.
8. BOB JOHNSON - I like this sort of consistency over a long span, though I'd hardly say he's a 'must-elect,' ever. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. Or McGriff without the tail, offensively. I am very concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than, say, most holdovers’.
9. BOB ELLIOTT - Good to see him mentioned in discussions starting about 10 'years' back, at least. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B (Ventura never had any that high). Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some back in the day. Beats out HOMer Boyer and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter. Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see these guys' threads for details).
10. BEN TAYLOR - Had meant to reconsider him for years; finally did so 7-8 “years” ago. Long career, excellent fielder, consistent player. I'm not 100 pct sold on the hitting MLEs, but very good reputation and for sure a quality player. Moves up holdover pecking order slightly.
11. VIC WILLIS - Won a Howie M SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters many 'years' ago, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. It's close, but I'll stick with Vic for yet another year.
12. DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before 12 yrs or so ago. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion at one point, now does so again. Similar to Randolph, but an SS.
13. BUCKY WALTERS - 4th pitcher on my ballot; we’re still a little shy there. Seemed to get Palmer-like defensive support, without enough super-stats to make that irrelevant. Proved his mettle outside of 'war years.' Lemon-esque, though I wasn't a big fan there.
14. KIRBY PUCKETT - Good prime for a CF, but not amazing. I had said if I wasn't sold on him being an excellent defensive CF in his first 6-8 years, he'd drop a bit. And now I believe his defensive prime didn't last that long, so he has dropped slowly but surely. I'll pass on the intangibles, but he holds his own against BobBonds offensively, for instance, and has just enough at the finish line to pass DaMurphy.
15. DAVE CONCEPCION -12th time on my ballot, and moved down a couple of slots this year. Peak is as good or better than Nellie Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position, so give Davey bonus pts" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. But he needs the modest credit in that regard to outlast Rizzuto.
................
AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM (YET)
PHIL RIZZUTO - Have him down to 17th with the new 6-pack grabbing the top spots. I'll grant a lot of war credit and stipulate to the great, great fielding. But even 3 war credit years gets him only to 13 main years, and the fielding made him above-average overall but not excellent in most seasons. Yet at closer look, similar case to Concepcion when you cancel out the irrelevant parts.
LUIS TIANT - Ranks 16th for me, so could also climb back next year with a fresh take. Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years and even climbed back to "elect-me" status at times - but now, he's struggling to be top 20. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. He was on an election path for a long while, but I think the voters who left were bigger Redding fans than the ones who remain. Turns out they may have done us a favor.
HUGH DUFFY – Most voting points in HOM history, of course he keeps adding to his lead since he doesn’t get elected. Only one season (1894) of 130 OPS+ or better dooms him (ok, 2 with 1891 AA), even as a strong fielder. Needed a little more pop.
GAVVY CRAVATH - Have voted for him before; do give him some minor league credit, absolutely. A reasonable end-ballot pick and top 20 for me probably; I just think that not only did he get a huge boost from the Baker Bowl, others could have done the same. Anyone else who has THIS much more MLB production in his 30s than his 20s? Not many, especially before steroids era.
SAL BANDO - Not buying him as Brooks-ian out there at 3B, partly from having seen both play. VERY underrated hitter. Durable and 7 yrs at at least 128 OPS+. Will remain on my radar; don't give up yet, Bando-backers, for 2014.
............
OTHERS OF INTEREST
DON NEWCOMBE – A passionate, detailed Newcombe backer might also get me there someday. I think he had the skills, but he didn’t quite actually produce quite enough. Prove me wrong next year.
BERNIE WILLIAMS - Didn't quite like him enough over this or even last top 15, but a serious low-ballot candidate and might tab him in the future. Feel like he had corner-OF D and CF-star stats.
KEN SINGLETON - Bob Johnson-like, but not quite as good for quite as long. Equally underappreciated in his time.
DALE MURPHY - His modest fan club will be saddened that he fell off my ballot in recent years. A different peak-primieness than Belle, and a different fade as well.
ORLANDO CEPEDA - Suddenly popped up on my ballot 12 years ago with the reevaluation. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity added nothing to his case. He may reclaim a ballot slot someday, but not soon.
TOMMY LEACH - I (barely) voted for him dozens of times, never quite warmed up to him. I wish some of the 3B-OF Leach-lovers compared him to my pet Elliott. Career 109 OPS+ here, and absolutely no decline-oriented mirage. Basically a fungible player past age 30. A guy who makes some stat systems look bad if you do a reality check.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing onto this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
ROBIN VENTURA - Great fielder, so ahead of better-hitting Cey. A plausible pick; I just ask for a little more offense or a little more career. Underrated. Compare to Bando.
RON CEY - In the past I have had him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. These guys are pulling a 'Van Haltren-Duffy-other 1890s OF who fell off ballots' for me, cannibalizing support.
LEE SMITH - Very tough one. 10 seasons I really like a lot, only 1 or 2 I love. Sutter has more to love, less to like. A lot of RPs do. Off my ballot, but may get back into consideration.
ALBERT BELLE - Eerily Kiner-esque and Keller-esque, and I like if not love these mashers. Wouldacoudashoulda been such an easy pick if not for the sudden career crash.
KENNY LOFTON (NEW) - Only OPS+ above 121 was a 145 in strike-marred 1994. Doesn't have to have hit anything near like the corner OF/1Bs, but he was a shade below that. Not a bad candidate, but won't crack this list.
PHoM 2012 – Bonds, Clemens, Piazza
1. Bonds I was surprised to see that Bonds only ranks 4th in my half peak/half career WS system behind Ruth, Wagner and Cobb.
2. Clemens I won my first fantasy league championship in 1986 with the help of this 28th round pick.
3. Piazza #4 catcher behind Gibson, Berra and Bench
4. Biggio
5. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak – 3 WS Cy Youngs, 1 runner up. One more big year than Dean.
6. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. 2 WS Cy Youngs, 1 runner up. Pitchers from the period 1934-1947 are under represented. Dean and Walters would help bring balance. NHBA #25 pitcher.
7. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. NHBA #16.
8. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could also use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. WS comparison with 1938 inductee Stan Coveleski shows them to be nearly identical in value. Ten best seasons:
Carl 35-31-30-27-25-22-20-20-17-11;
Stan 35-32-30-29-25-23-22-16-16-12.
Similarity scores agree. NHBA #38.
9. Cravath PHoM 1967. With mle credit Gavvy is above the HoM median using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons, 3 best and 8 best seasons.
10. Sosa
11. Murphy PHoM 2002. 4 consecutive seasons with 30+ WS. Above the HoM median for 5 consecutive years.
12. Duffy PHoM 1912. Compared with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS, Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons, 3 best and 8 best seasons. If WS overrate him, then so do I.
13. Singleton PHoM 1997. Above HoM median for best 5 consecutive seasons.
14. Grimes PHoM 2009. Change in the way I evaluate pitching finds one I had previously underrated. 4 big years. By WS, his 4th best year is better than the 4th best year turned in by Grove, Hubbell, and Plank. The 8 year period from 1917-1924 is under represented by MLB pitchers. Mays and Grimes would fix that.
15. Schilling A case for post season credit.
Of the returning 7, Rizzuto, Duffy and Cravath are on my ballot while Tiant, Willis and Bando are in my top 25. Redding is PHoVG material, not in my top 50.
15. Jim Sundberg - Alongside Fisk, Bench, Carter, and Rodriguez on the short list of the best defensive catchers ever. Adding catcher game calling runs to DRA gives Sundberg +225 fielding runs for his career. Almost the entirety of his value (47 out of 51 WAR) comes in an 11-year run (1974-1984), thanks to his passable bat (93 OPS+) and very high level of in-season durability (average of 140 games caught). Five seasons with 4-6 WAR, with additional seasons at 7 (1981) and 8 (1977) WAR. The WAR cited is the raw amount Sundberg has in my system; he gets a positional bonus on top of this.
What an amazing assessment of Sundberg...solid stick and otherworldly defense would make him worthy...this selection intrigues me to see your personal hall of merit, not hall of merit list, if you have one.
Thanks
5. Fred McGriff - Career voter, remember? Underrated. (PHoM - 2010)
6. Mike Piazza - Suddenly I see people defending his abilities as a catcher to justify putting him in as a hitter. He was a great hitter. He was a terrible catcher. He should have been moved to another position early in his career, but if he had been people wouldn't look at his offense in quite the same light. He will get in my PHoM eventually (maybe even next year) but he doesn't get in before Biggio.
Even for an extreme career voter, Piazza has comparable hitting value to McGriff, despite playing decent defensively at the toughest position and acquire his counting stats for hitting in ~2500 less PA, while McGriff played poorly defensively at the easiest position.
Batting Runs, Batting Wins, Offensive WAR, Plate Appearances, McGriff then Piazza
449/43.6/51.4/10174
425/39.9/63.2/7745
Stealing from the Piazza thread, post 278:
278. Bleed the Freak Posted: May 09, 2012 at 11:23 PM (#4127959)
20. AROM Posted: February 28, 2012 at 09:19 AM (#4070161)
Using .2 runs for a SB and .5 for a CS, Piazza cost his teams about 70 runs over his career. That's giving him 100% of the blame and not adjusting for pitchers.
I have his game calling being worth a bit more than that. Max Marchi is working on a similar metric and I can't wait to see what he comes up with.
My apologies for laying low. Between working two jobs and commuting, I burn 80 hours a week.
On to the good stuff:
As AROM mentioned, Max Marchi formerly of The Hardball Times, has moved on to Baseball Prospectus, and has done studies on historical catching value.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16199
Catchers improving pitching staffs - runs prevented:
248 - Tony Pena
210 - Mike Scioscia
205 - Javy Lopez
205 - Mike Piazza
191 - Carlton Fisk
178 - A.J. Pierzynski
161 - Russell Martin
150 - Jim Hegan
150 - Jose Molina
146 - Andy Etchebarren.
Based upon Marchi's research, I don't see any argument for Piazza's defense being terrible.
12. Fred McGriff -- most would agree with me that he is definitely better than Rice, with his substantially longer peak (though many of those people would have both 50 spots lower). I really like the consistent shape of his career. It doesn't bother me that he plied his trade among many other great firstbasemen (see my comment on Tiant).
13. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.
14. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.
15. Albert Belle – I thought I would love him. What a peak! I had hoped the peaksters would put him higher, but as a career voter, this is as high as he can get for me.
16. Curt Schilling -- his 9 year prime pretty much matches Belle's. For me, he suffers because I watched his career unfold -- unlike Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Piazza and even Sosa, I never thought Schilling was having a Hall of Merit career.
Why does Schilling suffer because you didn't think of him as a Hall of Meriter...is this even constitutional?
As a young boy, I thought McGriff and Belle were Hall of Fame / Meriters, but McGriff had no defensive or baserunning value, and Belle's career was cut short too early - making him a questionable choice, so I don't have either on my ballot.
16-20. McCormick, Cash, Bando, Redding, Brock
21-25. Finley, Grace, Grimes, Olerud, Streeter
26-30. Johnson, Gleason, Greene, John, Mullane
Are all of these guys more worthy than Curt Schilling?
I haven't yet switched all the way over to DRA for my pHOM yet or completely incorporated the BBREF WAR update, which would probably have a material effect on at least the bottom 20 percent of the pHOM. I might also have to add Marchi's game calling data instead of Smith's. Everyone on my ballot, and probably the off-ballot pitcher glut I mentioned, would be in my pHOM.
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