Wednesday, December 12, 2012
2013 Results: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Biggio are elected to the Hall of Merit!
(bbtf)
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio have been elected to the Hall of Merit!
The timing for our first year electing 4 candidates could not have worked out better, since class of 2013 is the strongest in terms of electees that we’ve ever had. The top of the 1934 ballot included Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Eddie Collins, Pop Lloyd, Smokey Joe Williams and Cristobal Torriente, but only 2 were elected.
Bonds and Clemens were each unanimous at 1 and 2. I believe that’s the first ...
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< 1 2I am more concerned with Rusty's ballot as his unexplained omission of Schilling indicates that he failed to even consider him.
Just FYI, this is the ballot as I have it now - comments are welcome, although there's only a day. Right now, my 16th is probably
Ben Taylor or Dizzy Dean, so if you're going to try to convince me to change a vote, they're the best to advocate for.
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Craig Biggio
4. Bobby Bonds
5. Sammy Sosa
6. Mike Piazza
7. Babe Adams
8. Curt Schilling
9. Hugh Duffy
10. Tommy Bridges
11. Don Newcombe
12. Kenny Lofton
13. Jim McCormick
14. Hilton Smith
15. Lou Brock
I agree that Rusty's ballot looks like he just forgot Schilling. He has Chuck Finley at 21.
Curt Schilling 3261 IP 127 ERA+
Chuck Finley 3197.1 IP 115 ERA+
There is no way I can measure what Chuck Finley accomplished in a way that Curt Schilling can't top it. Longer career at a higher level of quality. Higher peak, better prime.
I'm going to want to see why Piazza below Sosa.
We are around 20 ballots now, right? Can I expect a flood tomorrow? We had 37 total last year.
Has anyone systematically gone through the new stats that have been released over the last year or two (that's a guess as to the timeframe)?
There are some prelims that haven't been posted.
I have Sosa and Bobby Bonds, whom I regard as virtual equals, ahead of Piazza because I am being VERY conservative about Mike's defense. Conversation about it has gotten to the point where there is little else to discuss that is actually subject to numerical analysis -that is, we're discussing reputations. That tends to lead to emotional responses and polarization for a short time, and then clears up. It hasn't cleared up yet, and I have no other way to deal with it. On the few times I saw him play, he looked lousy, but catcher is a spot where you can be good and look bad, because so much is scrambling around on your knees.
I'm inclined to think more of Ben Taylor than I do of John Olerud. What I'm trying to decide is how good he was relative to Keith Hernandez, who seems a very good comp. "All" I have to do is try to adjust for quality of competition. So easy, with those Negro League schedules and adherence thereunto. - Brock
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Mike Piazza
4. Craig Biggio
5. Dagoberto Campaneris
6. Bucky Walters
7. Ed Williamson
8. Vic Willis
9. Burleigh Grimes
10. Curt Schilling
11. Davey Concepcion
12. Gavvy Cravath
13. Carlos Moran
14. Sal Bando
15. Mark Belanger
Comments can be found on the discussion thread.
Dick Redding, Ben Taylor and Phil Rizzuto are in the 15-20 range. Duffy is between 20 and 30. Tiant is lower than that. I didn't calculate exact ranks below the ballot, but these are the ranges.
For batters, Dan's WAR is my main tool, using the BB-Ref and Fangraphs material to fill in the gaps where they exist. For pitchers I use good old ERA+, with adjustments for defense as done by the uberstats. In both cases, I use something like JAWS (but with a slightly weighting on peak) to rank the players.
Sorry for being short on comments, life is catching up. If you want to ask about a specific ranking, you can do so.
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Mike Piazza
4. Curt Schilling
5. Craig Biggio: This is the "average" position for him, considering the many different assessments of his defense.
6. Fred Dunlap: Even adjusting for the low standard of competition in the UA, I see him as having a high, sufficiently extended peak
7. Babe Adams
8. Vic Willis
9. Dwight Gooden
10. David Concepcion
11. Luis Tiant
12. Albert Belle
13. Phil Rizzuto
14. Sammy Sosa: Very similar to Belle, when you think about it
15. Kevin Appier
Gavy Cravath got bumped off the ballot by the strong incoming class
Kenny Lofton also just missed. Very likely to be an eventual PHOMer (once I get around to rebuilding my PHOM)
I prefer to be conservative about Dick Redding. If new data suggests he is worthy of election, he will surely be elected quickly
Hugh Duffy and Sal Bando look to me like the product of particular uberstats that are very friendly to them (Win Shares and BBRef-WAR, respectively). Very big gap between them and the ballot.
I’m still a fairly extreme peak voter, though I pay attention to strong primes and superstrong careers as well. Back in the day, I used to rely mostly on WS for hitters and PRAA for pitchers, but I’ve been moving more and more toward BBWAR, and I do my best to keep up with the updates and changes. (I don’t dismiss durability issues, but I no longer harp on them as I once did.)
In the last year or so, I've been having to resist an inclination to throw up my hands re defensive stats, given the often large differences between the systems and the frequent and consequential (in many cases) changes to each system itself as well. I’m not abandoning them by any means, but have made an adjustment: In cases where a) the systems disagree notably and b) especially strong or weak defense has been a major factor in ranking a player, I’ve started to become much more conservative about their impact on that player's ranking, in either direction.
pHOM: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza
2013 ballot:
1. Barry Bonds (pHOM 2013). I echo what Dan R and just about everyone else has said. What else is there to say?
2. Roger Clemens (pHOM 2013). Ditto here. I’ve got him pretty much tied for second all-time among SPs with Pete Alexander.
3. Mike Piazza (pHOM 2013). Going all Socrates on what we know about his defensive abilities helps cement his already strong hold on my third spot. Without giant demerits for defense, he’s right there with Berra and Bench at the top, and only clearly behind Gibson at the position.
4. Craig Biggio. When I did my prelim, I was going with the assumption that his defense was top-notch; going conservative on that (and much doubt in general has been cast on those assumptions of late anyway) knocks him down quite a bit. But "quite a bit" on this ballot means the large gap goes between him and Piazza, rather than between him and Williamson as it was before.
5. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). I’m still faithful. Nice to see his name popping up with some new voters these days! He’s still a personal favorite, obviously, for great peaks both offensive and defensive (the systems and the reputation would appear to agree about that last part, so I'm standing by that too). He’s always seemed to me to be a no-brainer for peak voters who don’t timeline.
6. Don Newcombe (pHOM 2008). While he doesn’t at first appear to have the peak I usually look for, the era and the various factors blocking his career are likely responsible for most of that. Unlike many of the others in that amorphous area (Luke Easter, say), he had at least some chance to prove his high value in the majors, and he did so, IMO. Accordingly, I feel he’s earned a great deal of benefit of the doubt.
7. Curt Schilling. Easily over the line, I agree, but I have him near the bottom of my “in” cohort of pitchers, a bit ahead of my peaky faves Appier and Dean. Clearly a “frontlogger,” he’ll go in as soon as the no-doubters get out of the way.
8. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak. As with Newcombe, I think he deserves a lot of extra credit for being a NeL/MLB tweener.
9. Kevin Appier (pHOM 2012). I doubted the old system’s having him this high, but the BBWAR-peak one does too. So be it; here he is—to this peak voter, very slightly better than Cone across the board.
10. Phil Rizzuto (pHOM 2004). The systems seem to agree generally that his defense was world-class as opposed to merely good, and that’s reasonably in accord with his rep, so he doesn’t lose ground to my new defensive conservatism. That plus the brief peak and a hefty chunk of war credit (yes, I was a Keller partisan too) get him here.
11. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). The vote that epitomizes my peakster-ism. Very short peak, obviously, but five great years, especially at 3B, are enough for me.
12. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). With minor-league credit—which I give him—he’s a pretty easy choice for a peakster, with the requisite number of years to prove his monstrous ability.
13. Johnny Pesky (pHOM 1997). Another war credit beneficiary, but the various systems don’t entirely agree on his defensive quality, so I dropped him below Rizzuto when I’d had him slightly ahead before.
14. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Another really short peak, but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough (and high enough during that brief period) for me.
15. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). More prime than peak, but in both systems it’s impressive. Clearly not the equal of his shoo-in contemporaries like Jenkins and Perry, but I think he’s deserving.
16-20: Willis (1961), S. Sosa, [Reuschel], H. Smith, [Palmeiro], Cicotte (1972), Duffy (1930),
21-25: Bando (2012), D. Murphy, [Dw. Evans], [E. Martinez], Gomez (1987), G. Burns, Bo. Bonds
26-30: [Dawson], Hahn, [Boyer], Leach (2006), Singleton (1997), Clarkson, Doyle (1995)
31-35: McCormick, Dunlap, [R. Smith], Belle (2006), [Sewell], D. Parker, Avila
36-40: Hiller, Rucker, Olerud, Bancroft, Hershiser
41-45: Munson, Lofton, Chance, Be. Williams, [Whitaker], Viola,
46-50: Cepeda, Sutter, Walters (1968), Berger, H. Wilson
Required Explanations and Newbies:
•Redding. He’s been bouncing on and off my ballot for so long that it’s kind of embarrassing. But DanR’s comment has re-convinced me that in a case with so much lack of clarity, it’s a pretty big leap to concentrate only on how good this pitcher might have been. And the Seamheads updates cast even more doubt on his candidacy. That plus the glut of new candidates pushes him out of my top 50 (barely).
•Duffy. Always liked his peak, but was convinced to adjust it down a lot for a while; various arguments and counterarguments through the years have bounced him on and off my ballot. The WAR system quite likes him, though, which has tempered my downward adjustments. Now thanks to the glut, he’s off again, at #20.
•Willis. As with Duffy, I favored him, then didn’t, and now with the WAR system I do again. Kinda. He’s similar to Reuschel in that my (revised) old system wasn’t that fond of him, but the newer BBWAR-based one is very fond. Just off ballot now at #16, thanks to the glut.
•Bando. He was on ballot there for a few years, but the differences in evaluation of his defense now have me being more cautious again; between that and the glut, he drops to #21.
•Sosa. He would have comfortably made the bottom half of my 2012 ballot had he been eligible a year sooner; I have him a notch below Cravath, but also clearly over the in-out line for corner OFs. In this year's madness, he ends up at #17, just off-ballot, and likely something of a frontlogger till the no-doubters get out of the way.
•Lofton. Well below Bernie Williams on offense, but makes up the distance on defense and baserunning to get just ahead of him. Both are near the bottom of my top 50.
Thanks to John Murphy for keeping the Hall of Merit running smoothly for so many years!
I cast my first ballot in 1903 and voted in each election through 2010. I am happy to be participating in the HoM project again!
(#) = 2010 ballot ranking (n/e = not eligible) (n/r = not ranked)
Total = score in my system
1. Barry Bonds (n/e). Total = 359.7. He has a good case for being the best player of all time, although I still have him behind Babe Ruth. What more is there to be said? As a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, I can say that pretty much the last baseball worth watching in Pittsburgh was watchable due primarily to Barry Bonds. It’s been some consolation in the twenty years of losing since Barry went to San Francisco (who appreciated him much more than Pittsburgh ever did), that we got to see perhaps the greatest position player in the history of the game launch his career and rise to greatness.
2. Roger Clemens (n/e). Total = 291.0. He has good case for being the best pitcher of all time, although I still have him behind Walter Johnson and Cy Young.
3. Mike Piazza (n/e). Total = 172.6. He has a good case for being the best catcher of all time, and certainly he is the best hitting catcher after Josh Gibson. His numbers place him at the top in my system among major-league catchers, but I overrule the system to put him behind Johnny Bench because Bench was the more complete player and catcher defensive statistics still can’t give full due to shutting down the running game as Bench did.
4. Curt Schilling (n/e). Total = 178.7. I put him behind Piazza because my system may somewhat overrate pitchers of the high-offense 1993-2008 era. Schilling is excellent, but he’s still only the fifth-best pitcher of that era, trailing Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez. Still, I can’t believe that Schilling has actually been left off ballots in favor of a variety of other pitchers not named Clemens.
5. Craig Biggio (n/e). Total = 143.3. Obvious HoMer. Overrated in general because his relatively poor defense doesn’t show up in popular assessments, and his padded counting stats get a lot of attention. Nevertheless, he’s still a shoo-in, and I guess he will be a first-ballot HoMer if we elect four this year, as it looks like more voters have missed the boat on Schilling than have missed the boat on Biggio.
6. Buddy Bell (15). Total = 137.9. Very similar to the already elected Nettles, except that he peaked earlier and higher and had less value later in his career. All four WAR systems I can consult (Dan R., BBref, Fangraphs, BP) show him very similar in value to Biggio and Sosa, and even the very SS-friendly Dan R WAR puts Bell ahead of all of the SS candidates, so I think this placement is pretty solid. Bell is a player who deserves a much closer look when we get into the backlog. An above average hitter and a great fielder at a plus defensive position, with a strong peak and a solid career.
7. Sammy Sosa (n/e). Total = 134.6. Dan R, Fangraphs, and BP all show Sosa to be a very solid HoMer; BBref has him more marginal, hence the nudge below Bell. He had a great peak, and he was a very good player before his peak because he was an excellent defender in right field during the first half of his career.
8. Bobby Bonds (29). Total = 131.4 (4 above decade in-out line). The shift in WAR systems contributing to my rankings heavily favors Bonds, and given his completeness as a ballplayer, it’s not hard to accept that change. If Bell is the best player from the 1980s backlog remaining, Bonds is the best from the 1970s. The HoM has not yet finished bringing in the bottom tier of HoM-worthy players after 1970, so the bottom half of my ballot consists mainly of those players, who rank more highly relative to their peers, given their number of peers, than do the top players remaining from earlier decades.
9. Gavvy Cravath (4). Total = 129.3 (4 above decade in-out line). The 1910s are the only “underrepresented” decade before 1970. Cravath is well above the quota in-out line, and his raw total also justifies a solid ballot placement, so he follows Bonds. He drops from his near-elect spot on my 2010 ballot, for obvious reasons.
10. Kenny Lofton (n/e). Total = 127.9 (5 above decade in-out line). Lofton is terribly underrrated—I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t even get the 5% he needs to stay on the BBWAA ballot—but he was an outstanding player. He’s more of a career candidate than a peak one, but he was highly effective when he played for a long time, and most systems see him as an excellent defensive centerfielder.
11. Kevin Appier (n/r). Total = 126.4 (3 above decade in-out line). I saw him pitch only after his injury, when he was a battler without great stuff, but he was brilliant in the first half of the 1990s. Being in KC and losing part of his peak to the strike don’t help his reputation, but he’s a HoM pitcher at about the Dave Stieb level.
12. Luis Tiant (8). Total = 127.9 (2 above decade in-out line). An uneven career, but he’s got a couple of great seasons and a lot of very good ones. Pitching in extreme hitters’ parks probably took a bite out of his IP totals relative to his contemporaries as well.
13. Bert Campaneris (5). Total = 133.7/111.4 (2 above decade in-out line). The debate on how to evaluate 70s era shortstops continues. I’m reasonably convinced that the BBRef positional adjustments are inadequate, though Dan R’s may be a bit too high, so I see Campaneris as a borderline rather than a solid HoMer. But he makes my ballot as the best shortstop between Banks and Yount.
14. Ben Taylor (n/r) Total = ? (2 above decade in-out line). Eyeballing the Seamheads data certainly suggests that his reputation is deserved, so I am comfortable awarding him a borderline ballot spot as the next best player after Cravath from our only underrepresented era before 1970. The data gathered on him is certainly robust enough for good MLEs to be run—I look forward to taking on that project early next year to begin the run-up to the 2014 election.
15. Chuck Finley (n/r). Total = 125.3 (2 above decade in-out line). As I noted in the Schilling comment above, my system may be overrating 1990s pitchers a bit. When I use runs above replacement instead of wins above replacement, pitchers in high-offense eras get a boost over pitchers in low-offense eras, because it takes more runs saved per win. Another component of the system is Wins Above Average, so the low-offense pitchers still get a boost there. Still, I am sure that in general we have taken a few more borderline players than we should have from decades before 1970, so I am going to go with Finley’s current position relative to his peers in my system and keep him in my final ballot spot.
Off the Ballot.
16. Fred Dunlap (10). Total = 134.6. 2 above decade in-out line. Drops off my ballot with the arrival of the awesome class of 2013, but he remains my top 19th-century candidate. I’m seeing Williamson gain traction; why not Dunlap?
17. Urban Shocker (22). Total = 131.5. 1 above decade in-out line. Would have been a solid HoMer if he had lived longer.
18. Phil Rizzuto (7). Total = 128.0/120.9. 1 above decade in-out line. Slips slightly in my new system, but only slightly. He merits election, and may see it when we next dip into the backlog.
19. Robin Ventura (40ish). Total = 118.9. 1 above decade in-out line. Not the hitter Bando was, but his defensive reputation is much stronger and consistent with the data. A very solid prime.
20. Ted Breitenstein (n/r). Total = 131.5. 1 above decade in-out line. BBRef numbers bring him back onto my radar. The fifth-best pitcher of the 1890s transition. In context, a pretty remarable pitcher.
21. Vic Willis (44). Total = 132.0. 1 above decade in-out line. BBRef numbers force me to reevaluate Willis.
22. Jim McCormick (n/r). Total = 134.5. 1 above decade in-out line. I don’t advocate for another 1880s pitcher, but if we take one, I’m pretty sure it should be McCormick. He’s been in and out of my near backlog with the swings in evaluation of 1880s pitchers as a cohort.
23. Orel Hershiser (37). Total = 123.9. 1 below decade in-out line. One of the top pitchers of the late 1980s, with a pretty solid comeback after injury.
24. Chet Lemon (51). Total = 122.4. 2 below decade in-out line. Are modern CFers overrated? I’m not pulling the trigger on Lemon yet, but he’s in the discussion.
25. Norm Cash (27). Total = 119.1. On decade in-out line. Cash shakes out about the same in the new system as he did in the old: right on the borderline. A nice prime, but only one great year, and in the weaker major league. Not enough to lift him clearly out of the backlog.
26. Sal Bando (n/r). Total = 118.8. On decade in-out line. View of him as a poor fielder in Win Shares and Davenport FRAA put him way down in my old rankings. Total Zone likes him better, but wild disagreement among systems leaves him on the borderline and off my ballot for now.
27. Bob Johnson (20). Total = 124.6. 3 below decade in-out line. I have him above Medwick and Averill, but it was an easy-to-dominate decade. No minor-league credit for now.
28. Frank Tanana (n/r). Total = 120.4 1 above decade in-out line. Solid peak and a long career. Peak years set him apart from Tommy John.
29. Bernie Williams (n/e). Total = 117.4. On decade in-out line. He lands where he does for reasons pretty similar to Bando.
30. Ned Williamson (n/r). Total = 131.8. 1 below decade in-out line. I’m not as high on Williamson as some, but he should be in the conversation.
31. Tony Mullane (n/r). Total = 124.5. 5 below decade in-out line. Bounces around like McCormick. There’s no AA adjustment here, though also no blacklist credit, so Mullane may move quite a bit in 2014 once I get the AA adjustment worked out.
32. Wilbur Cooper (25). Total = 115.6. On decade in-out line. I don’t think I’ve zeroed out his below replacement beginning and ending years. When I’ve done that consistently for pitchers, he may move up a bit. A very solid prime, though lacking a spectacular peak.
33. Eddie Cicotte (34). Total = 120.2. 1 above decade in-out line. I’d rather not see him elected, but this is where he ranks.
Top 10 returning candidates not on my ballot
Phil Rizzuto – Near my ballot at #18, and I support his election.
Dick Redding – As the data from his career fills out, I don’t see him as being a dominant pitcher. Very good, for sure, and durable, but I don’t think the data suggest a HoM-quality career. I need to work on MLEs for him before next election, though.
Hugh Duffy – The best of the remaining 1890s outfielders, but not really close. If we were to elect him, we’d be dipping down into the Kirby Puckett/Fred Lynn/Kiki Cuyler level of player.
Vic Willis – Near my ballot at #21.
Sal Bando – Near my ballot at #26, and right now I see him as someone who might merit election. Studying the left side of the A’s infield will be one of my 2014 election-year projects.
Don Newcombe – Like the other players whose cases can’t be evaluated just through the available comprehensive stats, I need to give him another look. The comprehensive stats from his major league seasons aren’t all that impressive (Sal Maglie is looking better there), but I’m going to have to review his case in detail for next year.
Tommy Leach – New WAR systems don’t support his case to be a top candidate any more.
When does voting close?
And, speaking as the only voter ever to have a ballot disqualified for lack of commentary on each player on the ballot...have we abandoned that requirement?
With this ballot, I’m finally making the switch to fielding above average, rather than fielding above replacement. (As in most matters sabermetric, I’m 10 years behind the times). With this switch, there also must be an artificial inflation of the middle infielders. Unfortunately, I don’t have a good sense of what that inflation factor should be. I previously only had to inflate catchers to account for their fewer games played. There could be some trial & error here until I get more previous electees into the new system and find the right mix.
I think I’m also finally going to have to depress the pitching runs above replacement. As pitching heavy as my ballots have been over the last 50 years, my P-Hall has elected what I consider a good percentage of pitchers. But just looking at the backlog, all the recent average/above avg. career pitchers are filtering above the similarly talented hitters. What should be 5 pitchers in an average ballot has tilted towards 9 (and more on some non-average ballots!). That project waits for next year.
Or maybe the problem is a lack of new blood. Maybe what I really need is a couple of those rookie classes like 1934-36, where it takes a good 6-7 years to elect them all. One of those types of classes would give me some time to figure out the backlog again. But what are the chances of that happening anytime soon?
1. Barry Bonds (n/a), S.F. – Pitt. (N), LF (’86-’07) (2013) – I know I didn’t appreciate his value in the 90s. Obviously a heart of the order hitter and all, but even after signing the mega deal to San Francisco I know I didn’t have him in the running for best of his generation. It was almost after the fact (c. 2000?) that he became obviously the best and headed toward the rarified air with Ruth, Williams, et al. But probable HOM after ’95, certain HOF after ’97-’98? Never saw it coming, which is why we love baseball.
2. Roger Clemens (n/a), Bost. – N.Y. (A), SP (’84-’07) (2013) – Now Clemens looked like a HOMer right from the gate. I haven’t plugged in Maddux yet to see who is better in this system I’ve set up.
3. Mike Piazza (n/a), L.A. – N.Y. (N), C (’93-’07) (2013) – Catcher bonus barely allows Piazza to pass over Biggio, despite Biggio’s own bonuses for catcher and second base.
4. Craig Biggio (n/a), Hou. (N), 2B / C (’89-’07) (2013) – Reiterating last year’s comment, I’d be in favor of limiting electees to 3 per year max., mostly to selfishly stock the coming decade of ballots with worthy entrants. Biggio had no real chance to make #2 on the ballot anyways, so it doesn’t quite matter here, but poor fielding numbers will hurt his overall standing amongst the HOM elite.
5. Sammy Sosa (n/a), Chic. (N), RF (’90-’07) – His stellar peak value helps Sosa jump Schilling in the pecking order. Having watched much of his mid-90s Cub tenure on a daily basis, I was wondering if his defense would translate into the advanced numbers; it has, which is how he ranks this high while a similarly-valued hitter like Rusty Staub is off-ballot.
6. Curt Schilling (n/a), Phila. – Ariz. (N), SP (’90-’07) – I’m still not sure how to systematically give credit for post-season performance, nor if I would want to based on unequal opportunity, but Schilling would surely have to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of such largesse. I don’t know that I could give enough credit to put him ahead of Biggio here, but he’ll be elected in due time so I won’t sweat it.
7. Frank Tanana (4), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (2000) – Koufax peak, plus 10 additional years of average / below avg.
8. Bucky Walters (5),Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – Postive hitting and fielding numbers get him close in value to the other pitchers listed here, despite the overall lesser pitching resume. The very good ’39-’41 peak elevates him the rest of the way.
9. Tommy John (9), Chic.– N.Y. (A) SP (’63-’89) (1997) – Holding serve at #9 is a tremendous jump for John. Obviously the most average pitcher listed here (by ERA+), but 4,600 average IP's will take you far on this ballot. John lists as an above average fielder, relative to the other pitchers he’s fighting with for ballot position, and so FRAA instead of FRAR really helps the ageless one.
10. John Olerud (7), Tor. (A), 1B (’90-’05) (2012) – It would really have helped his case to get 1,000 more AB’s, and more so if so much of the value wasn’t on the fielding side of the ledger. But on the pre-’13 backlog his resume compares quite favorably.
11. Chuck Finley (--), Calif. (A) SP (’87-’02) ( 2008) – He’s ranked in the same grouping as these other pitchers. There’s a case to be made that he should drop because of playing in the DH league (can’t say how bad a hitter he’d have been).
12. Luis Tiant (6), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Tiant is hurt by a fairly sharp league quality adjustment (as are Kaat & T.John), and the fielding value doesn’t help either. But he pitched for long enough with a 114 ERA+ to merit inclusion in the HOM in a backlog year.
13. Ron Cey (3), L.A. (N), 3B (’73-’87) (2010) – The second biggest loser in the system adjustment (after Scooter who falls off the ballot – Rizzuto would be #13 here if the backlog didn’t all take six steps back). Defense is really only for tiebreakers if you’re not Ozzie. Fortunately for the Penguin, the tiebreak works in his favor vs. Bernie Williams and the infielder bonus helps him over Tony Perez (IF bonus is for 2B, SS, & 3B only; 1B are grouped with the OF’s).
14. Vic Willis (--), Bost. (N), SP (1898-1910) – I think the IP’s were a little light for the era, else he would’ve gotten in a while ago. But the fielding above average credit helps him, relative to the cloud of pitching equals all clustered in this range.
15. Tony Perez (8), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – There’s just no peak-worthiness left in the backlog. The career candidates are all hanging out here waiting to get in. I’m guessing the players from the ‘I remember watching him play’ era are being hurt by this distinction, relative to the guys from 100 years ago who are pretty much a name and stat line to us collectively.
Phil Rizzuto (1972) – Simply not enough offense to survive the switch to fielding above average. Will continue to be around the perimeter of the ballot, once the ballot returns to backlog.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Hugh Duffy – I have Van Haltren, Ryan and Griffin ranked ahead of Duffy from the OF of that era.
Gavvy Cravath – Mark Grace’s 5-year peak is every bit as impressive as this, and his 10-year score dominates vs. Gavvy. Neither is even close to a ballot.
Sal Bando – I’ve got Ron Cey as superior in just about every facet.
Lots of folks were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
For hitters, I rely heavily on Dan Rosenheck's WAR and Dan's WAR modified for DRA defensive value, secondarily, I use Sean Smith, Sean Forman, and Baseball Gauges WAR that utilizes DRA.
For pitchers, I rely heavily on a mixture of Sean Smith, Sean Forman, and Baseball Gauges WAR, but I also placed a significant emphasis on Joe D's PA (modified for more recent updates to Baseball Prospectus numbers - Joe, do you have any updates to share?) and Fangraphs WAR (I had run these awhile back utilizing the FIP component, prior to Fangraphs added pre-1974 pitching) - I use WPA as a tie breaker of sorts (Billy Pierce was awesome for this).
I give full war credit, integration credit, and consider mle credit when a player is blocked or in the minor leagues era not specifically associated with major league farm systems (Buzz Arlett is quite a tough one to judge).
To the ballot:
1. Barry Bonds - best pure position player of all-time. 2004 most impressive/unique season of all-time. 362/609/812 in a tough home park, 352 BB/IBB at age 39. Led National League in BB, OBP, and IBB in his final season - blackballed by MLB after a 3 WAR season.
2. Roger Clemens - most amazing accomplishment? 2005 - 187 ERA at age 42 in 211 IP? I was fortunate enough to see the Rocket during his amazing 1997 season at the Skydome during my only trip outside the United States.
3. Mike Piazza - sublime 1997 - 362/431/638 with home games in Chavez Ravine!
An argument can be made that each is the greatest of all-time at the respective positions.
4. Curt Schilling - in the group of no brainer hurlers - Mussina, Brown, Smoltz, and Glavine - love the 2004 ALCS gutsy Game 6, bloody sock performance. - 3 seasons of >300 K, 15 CG in 1998!
5. Sammy Sosa - emphasis on DRA allowed Sosa to leap frog Biggio...lots of value from his defense/baserunning in his early to mid career. Amazing 2011 - 328/437/737, 153 BB/IBB, 64 HR, 146/160 R/RBI...unfortunately in downswing of career during Cubs playoff runs in 2003 and epic failure in 2004. 4 consecutive seasons of 50 HRs or more.
6. Craig Biggio - conflicting values of defense drop him below Sosa...5X HBP and modern leader, 146 Runs in 1997.
7. Phil Rizzuto - WAR and malaria credit get him easily over the line.
8. Tommy Leach - DRA and Baseball Gauge WAR shows Leach as off the charts worthy.
9. Don Newcombe - Integration/Korea credit
10. Buddy Bell - DRA and WAR systems like/love him
11. Hilton Smith - Alex King's study and Hall of Fame/Baseball Fever all agree about Smith's worthiness.
12. Bert Campaneris - Dan R selection
13. Gavvy Cravath - worthy after MLE and Chris Cobb's estimation that fielding value was passable.
14. Johnny Pesky - Dan R and WWII credit
15. Kevin Appier - WAR and PA love him, conservative placement with plethora of 90s standout hurlers.
1870s - Tommy Bond
1880s - Ned Williamson,
1890s
1900s - Bill Monroe, Vic Willis
1910s - Babe Adams, Eddie Cicotte, Art Fletcher, Ben Taylor, Bobby Veach
1920s - Dave Bancroft, Urban Shocker,
1930s - Kiki Cuyler, Bob Johnson
1940s
1950s
1960s - Norm Cash
1970s - Bobby Bonds, Jose Cruz, Thurman Munson, Roy White
1980s - Doc Gooden
1990s - Kenny Lofton, Bernie Williams
Top 10 not on ballot:
Luis Tiant - just outside PHOM, has reasonable argument for lower 3rd of ballot, strong cohort from 70s.
Dick Redding - Seamheads data knocks him further from ballot - voting for him is defensiveable, I am not there yet.
Hugh Duffy - WAR has brought him closer, but still well short of ballot.
Sal Bando - See Dan R's argument of Campaneris vs Bando.
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.
I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.
I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).
One last thing, thank you all for the kind words posted on this thread. Special thanks go to Joe for allowing me the opportunity to do something special and meaningful here. It was a long and fruitful run, but the project needs someone who can give it more of himself than I can now. I see Dan is taking over at least some of the responsibilities - if he handles it as well as he does the MMP elections, the Hall of Merit will be in good hands for years to come.
1) Barry Bonds-LF/CF (n/a): Inner-circle even before the PEDs, he became the most exciting hitter and greatest player of my lifetime afterwards. Every at bat became an event.
2) Roger Clemens-P (n/a): Basically the mound version of Bonds, except Roger's post-steroid years weren't as dominating as Barry's were. On the shortlist of greatest hurlers ever.
3) Mike Piazza-C (n/a): Greatest ML hitter of all-time, bar none, and a case can be made he was the best all-around, too (though that's only because Josh Gibson never got a chance to play).
4) Craig Biggio-2B/C/CF/LF (n/a): Playing most of his career at premium defensive positions with a better-than-average bat, his quest for 3,000 hits was unnecessary. He was HOM-quality years before achieving that goal. Not just a good player who had a remarkably long career, his peak could rival or best the majority of players enshrined in any hall.
5) Curt Schilling-P (n/a): Not inner-circle, but not a borderliner by any stretch of the imagination, either. Kind of crept on me, but he unquestionably belongs.
5) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (1): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.
6) Lee Smith-RP (2): Having his career occur during a major rethinking of his position really distorts his true value, IMO. All things equal, Gossage was better, but not that much better. Never the best for any one season, but consistently among the best for many a year.
7) Bucky Walters-P (4): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Even with a defense adjustment, he stands out. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.
8) Mickey Welch-P (5): Like the hurlers of the 1970s, the generation from the 1880s was rich in talent. On that note, Welch deserves a HoM nod. Best major league pitcher for 1885.
9) Vic Willis-P (6): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.
10) Gavvy Cravath-RF (7): I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11 (not full credit for '08, since he did play some in the majors that year). Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.
11) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (8): Best third baseman of the Forties. The bridge between the Jimmy Collins-Pie Traynor types and the later ones that didn't have the same defensive responsibilities. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career when compared to other third basemen throughout history. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.
12) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (9): Been on my ballot forever and haven't regretted it. "Only" the third best center fielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league center fielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.
13) Pie Traynor-3B (10): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith were better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.
14) Burleigh Grimes-P (11): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.
15) Bobby Bonds-RF/CF (12): One of my favorites growing up as a kid. He could do it all. Made his debut on my 3rd birthday, which I believe means something. Best ML right fielder for 1970 (close in 1971). Best NL right fielder for 1971 and 1973.
As for the other newbies, Sosa is the only other one who moves me, but not that much. I'll take Bernie Williams over him any day of the week.
Rizzuto, Tiant Redding and Bando weren't that far away from making my ballot.
Just remove Bonds then.
Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WAR, OPS+/ERA+ with Dan R’s WARP based material.Ratings include positional adjustments, additions to one’s playing record for minor league service, war, and NeL credit and for our real oldtimers some contemporary opinion thrown in. Weighting the various measures smoothes any outliers and helps get my ordering. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true. Last year’s placement is in parenthesis.
Disclaimer: PEDs are no factor for me. You played, you get credit without a one-year protest.
1. Barry Bonds (-). Uh, he was a five tool player who put up video game numbers at the end of his career. I'd take Ruth all-time but Bonds is in the rarest of air. Still couldn't throw out Sid Bream for some reason.
2. Roger Clemens (-). Should be changing the Cy Young to the Roger Clemens since he won it more than his fair share. Will pop up on some minor league team this year for some attention I'm sure.
3. Mike Piazza (-). Catcher who hit with such authority don't exist normally. Will go into HOM with the A's cap?
4. Craig Biggio (-). Sure he stuck around too long - wouldn't we all in whatever you do in life. Slight catchers bonus to go along with fine leadoff hitter skills.
5. Curt Schilling (-). Add to the 216 wins an 11-2 record in the postseason and no worries for putting him here. Power pitcher, good control, workhorse, lots to like.
6. Tommy Leach (2). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in. Useless trivia: Still holds World Series record with 4 triples in a single series.
7. Dick Redding (1). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected. The last NeL pitcher I’d deem as worthy of induction.
8. Bobby Bonds (4). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son, but we’re talking about a RF who could steal bases and field his position. All five tools on display.
9. Norm Cash (5). Nice run from 1961-66 in terms of placing among the OPS+ leaders in the AL. Seems to be a decent glove to go with good on-base skills. Took an interesting route to the league – didn’t play high school ball so late start to the game, spent a year (1957) in the military.
10. Phil Rizzuto (6). I’ve done my minor league & WWII absence calibration so Scooter scoots to ballot position. Glove first but the offense during prime years was nothing to sneeze at either. Holy Cow!
11. Tony Mullane (7). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.
12. Sammy Sosa (-). Peak power that was enough to make people start walking him. This increased his value as it upped his OBP skills, doubling the value added. Early in his career he had base stealing and defense as assets. Note: I've moved him down one spot from my prelim - I'm going to be conservative since there were many contemporary RFs who look similar to Sosa but just didn't retire as early as Sammy so they are not eligible.
13. Mickey Welch (8). 300 game winner in the house. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey. Seemed to pitch well against the other front line starters of his day.
14. Fred McGriff (9). I see a nice prime 1988-94 before the silly ball era takes place. Adds on plenty of career length (60th all-time in games) who didn’t DH much. A very good hitter in the playoffs over many series, slight bump for that.
15. Bob Johnson (10). Argument in brief:
Batting Win Shares misses the mark on his value due to quality of teams he played on. They were horrible and likely cost 20-25 win shares over his 10 year prime with the A’s.
The teams he played on underperforming pythag wins vs. actual, thus a hit to Win Shares. Additionally his teams would end up leaving 2-4 decisions short per year. These incomplete games outcomes shorten Win Shares to divide up.
His career has war years that need discount. But also a couple years at the beginning of his career were in the PCL where he was more than major league quality. MLEs for 1931-32 show a player worthy of starting in the bigs. The tail of his career is nonexistent since the 1946 avalanche of returning War players pushed him back to the minors.
When he retired, Bob Johnson ranked eighth all-time in home runs. He is credited with having the strongest arm among left fielders in his era, cited by Bill James in his historical Abstract.
For me he goes ahead of electees like Medwick, Averill, and Willard Brown from his era.
Immediately off ballot:
16. Luis Tiant (11)
17. Bus Clarkson (12)
18. Bucky Walters (13)
19. Orel Hershiser (14)
20. Luke Easter (15)
21. Lance Parrish
22. Jack Clark
23. Vic Willis
24. Hugh Duffy
25. Spotswood Poles
Next 10 (no order) Tommy John, Carl Mays, Kenny Lofton, Lou Brock, Buddy Bell, Don Newcombe, Ben Taylor, Bert Campaneris, Burleigh Grimes, Tommy Bridges
Cravath - Got him in the 70-80 range. I'll have to relook at the minor league numbers, he needs them to hop farther up the backlog. Rest of his game besides power is not going to earn admission.
Sal Bando - I'm more of Buddy Bell/Bob Elliott fan, not to say Bando doesn't have his merits. Probably in the 60s range.
The first step is to rank players by career value. At this stage, Merit is awarded on the basis of traditional counting targets such as 3000 hits or 250 wins, career rate statistics such as batting average, and adding in values for achievements such as MVP awards.
At the end of this stage, I sort players into five pools — pitchers, catchers, 1B/LF/RF/DH, 2B/3B/SS and CF. Then, using WSAB, I determine each player's ten-year prime, as well as any MVP-quality seasons, All-Star-quality seasons.
This is not a strict WSAB number, but is based on their rank against peers in their league and at their position. This also gives the number of ToP — Top of Position — seasons.
The ballot is constructed with an emphasis on individual seasons rather than prime WSAB totals. I also give some consideration to how much a player's career value outdistances that of his pool peers. I apply a system of positional balance, limiting the number of players drawn from any one pool until all pools have representation on the ballot.
Although I am a PED-o-phobe, the constitution requires me to set aside my conscience and vote for numbers. However, I don't hold PEDs as especially responsible for the offensive explosion of 1993 and after, but rather follow Eric Walker's "Sillyball" hypothesis and think that much of the juice went into the ball. I have consequently treated 'uber-stat' numbers from 1997-2003 with considerable suspicion this time round, and have indicated the players affected by assigning them to the Sillyball category. One of the benefits of perpetual eligibility is that a HoM voter can take the time to define better how to relate eras of pitching or hitting extremes to more balanced periods in baseball.
1 Barry Bonds LF, Prime 1989-98. (MVP 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998; All-Star 1995; ToP 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998) Sillyball category. Bonds was the dominant player in the National League during his prime, his only consistent challenger being Jeff Bagwell. He was also the dominant player in the Major Leagues at his position. His only competition as a left-fielder comes from Albert Belle in the other league.
2 Roger Clemens P, Prime 1986-95. (MVP 1986, 1987, 1990; All-Star 1991, 1992; ToP 1986, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1992) Sillyball category. Clemens was the dominant pitcher in the AL during his prime. His accumulated career value is substantially ahead of any other pitcher on my ballot, approaching double that of the runner-up.
3 Mike Piazza C, Prime: 1993-2002. (MVP 1997; All-Star 1994, 1995, 1996; ToP 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997) Sillyball category. Piazza, like Biggio, was the dominant player at his position in the 1990s. Unlike Bonds, his Prime still has to include his PED-suspicion years. He chases my long-time favourite catcher, Thurman Munson, off my ballot, but sometimes one has to vote with head rather than heart. I've moved him up from the preliminary ballot solely to keep together the next three players.
4 Burleigh Grimes SP Prime: 1920-9 (MVP 1920; All-Star 1918, 1921, 1928, 1929; ToP 1921) To me, there are four old-timey pitchers who maneuver around my ballot each year: Vic Willis, Bucky Walters, Grimes and Dizzy Dean. This time round I have ranked the three who made their ballots by their offensive environments. Grimes had the hardest conditions in which to pitch, and put together a sterling resume. He had four very good seasons in the 1920s, a difficult era for pitchers, in which he was either the best or second-best or third-best pitcher in his league. Plus, he had another such season in the much easier conditions of 1918.
5 Vic Willis SP, Prime 1898-1907. (MVP 1899, 1901; All-Star 1902, 1906; ToP 1899, 1901) The first change from my preliminary ballot is to place Willis a lot higher. Re-examining the offensive context of his two MVP-quality seasons, I find that he pitched in an environment more difficult for pitching than Bucky Walters' two seasons of similar value. I have taken away two of the All-Star seasons I credited him with on last year's ballot (1898 and 1909) because there were too many pitchers with higher WSABs than him during those seasons.
6 Bucky Walters SP, Prime: 1937-46. (MVP 1939, 1940; All-Star 1941, 1944, ToP 1939, 1940, 1944). I've had Walters on the fringes of the 'elect-me' slots through most of my HoM voting career, the one exception being 2010, when I tweaked my system in a way that hurt him unduly. He often suffers from a lack of interest on the part of the electorate for having played a substantial portion of his time during the Second World War. I would like to draw the electorate's attention to those MVP seasons, though. No wartime taint there at all, and the only player with more such seasons ahead of him on this ballot is Clemens.
7 Craig Biggio 2B, Prime 1989-98. (All-Star 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998; ToP 1991 (as catcher), 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998) Sillyball category. Biggio dominated his position in the 1990s, clearly being the best secondbaseman in the league during his prime. Doing well as a catcher helps him out a bit, too.
8 Hugh Duffy OF, Prime 1889-98. (MVP 1894, All-Star 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893; ToP 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894) Duffy's case was badly hurt by my thinking about Sillyball. He was an offensive star at an offensive time. However, I can't ignored the sustained level of excellence from 1890 through 1894, and this time round can drop him no further than this. He was the premier outfielder of his era.
9 Jim Rice LF, Prime 1977-86. (MVP 1978; All Star 1977, 1979, 1986; ToP 1978, 1986) He was a dominant force in his league in his time, even accounting a bit for park. His 1977-9 is a concentrated core that is very impressive. Rice benefited from a career that got kick-started in 1977 by a livelier ball in a hitter's park. It's really that .502 career slugging in an exceptionally balanced era of baseball that sells him to me. May move ahead of Duffy this time next year.
11 Ben Taylor 1B This year I put in a bit of work with the Negro Leagues' database at Seamhead.com, and concluded that last year I had Taylor too high. He fits right in behind Traynor, because their cases are similar, but Traynor almost certainly played in the more competitive envirionment. Taylor was the class of the Negro League 1Bs for much of his career, and sustained a good deal of his value during the more structured period of the 1920s Negro Leagues.
12 Kirby Puckett CF Puckett arrived on my ballot for the first time in 2010, when he benefited from a new system. I have him at about the same prime value as Rice, but not quite as a high a peak.
13 Phil Rizzuto With the addition of war credit, he looks to me the best shortstop not in the Hall of Merit. In contrast to Dave Concepcion, he faced stiffer competition from his rivals (HoMer Pee Wee Reese among them) for the title of 'best shortstop' in the major leagues.
14 Lee Smith RP (All-Star 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991; ToP 1985) New to my ballot, Smith's was the highest career score of anyone not a newly eligible, and not on my ballot. His case is largely a career one. In all but one of his six seasons of excellence, there was someone else better than him in his league. However, for once I can't bring myself to punish a low peak.
15 Curt Schilling SP, Prime 1995-2004. (All-Star 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2004) Sillyball category. Schilling is the sort of pitcher who finds much more favour with the electorate than me. To me, he looks like the Rafael Palmeiro of pitchers. He undoubtedly has career value, but almost always he is behind someone else having a better season. To a degree, as with Palmeiro, that career has to be taken into account. But those with sturdier primes are always going to be at an advantage with me. He takes the place of Dizzy Dean and, at the last minute, Lou Brock.
Mandatory Disclosures
I don't really get the love for Luis Tiant. Well, I do in the sense that he has a goodly chunk of career bulk, but that's all he's got and that bulk rests on sandy foundations. He was never the best pitcher in his league, and his 1971 season, in the heart of his 1967-76 prime, is the absolute worst one of any prime I've looked at. I mean, I'd probably vote for him ahead of Catfish Hunter, but that's praising with more-than-faint d--ns.
Cannonball Dick Redding The more data we get via Seamheads.com, the more problematic Redding's candidacy becomes. His 19-teens seasons were astounding, but I am very concerned about the level of competition he faced. On some levels, I can see possibly ranking him ahead of Taylor, and thought seriously about doing so. However, I am not at all convinced that his equivalent statistics found on our Negro Leaguer threads have been regressed properly, and I rather prefer dealing with unregressed data. Since we can't undo an election, I'd prefer to wait a little longer, and continue my work at getting a much clearer picture of context.
Neither Gavy Cravath nor Sal Bando comes close to my ballot on the basis of their career value.
New Chaps
Sammy Sosa is the player most hurt by my suspicions during the Sillyball Era. He loses almost all his Meritworthy standing, by concentrating that value in 1998-2003. He will remain off my ballot until my work with Marcels and Brock2s enable me to get a better sense of the period.
Kenny Lofton is behind people like Bernie Williams, Belle and maybe Don Mattingly.
This is Brock Hanke’s final vote for the Hall of Merit, 2013.
For methodology, I think that the ability to work out a good mathematical method is important, but no more important than the ability to ask the right question. I spend a lot of time trying to figure out what the right question is. Then I try to balance all the arenas of strength (career length, high rate, good glove, hot bat, peak, prime, postseason, everything I can think of). As I go back in time, I rely more and more on contemporary reputation, and less on statistical methods. This is not because I think sabermetricians are the bunk, but because the available stats from the early times don’t provide enough fuel for the mathematical engines. I have faith in Chris Cobb’s analysis of the Negro Leagues, but I still rely a lot on reputation. I rely a lot on Paul Wendt’s work on the VERY early game.
What follows is a simple list of my votes, for tabulation purposes, followed by the same list, but with comments. Then there are the carryover guys that the rules require me to comment upon. I agree with the rules about that, BTW.
- Brock Hanke
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Craig Biggio
4. Bobby Bonds
5. Sammy Sosa
6. Mike Piazza
7. Babe Adams
8. Curt Schilling
9. Hugh Duffy
10. Tommy Bridges
11. Don Newcombe
12. Kenny Lofton
13. Jim McCormick
14. Hilton Smith
15. Lou Brock
1. Barry Bonds
I doubt if anyone’s going to demand that I write a 1,000-word essay defending this placement.
2. Roger Clemens
Or this one.
3. Craig Biggio
Biggio reminds me of those three 19th-century catchers who were moved out from behind the place not because they failed with the glove, but because their bats were missing too many games due to catcher injuries: Deacon White, Buck Ewing, and Tom Daly. The missing fourth would be Roger Bresnahan, although Roger’s career is so weird that it’s hard to assign any real structure to it. Craig here would be, if I remember right, the missing fifth. I don’t think he was moved away from catcher because he was bad at it; it was done to keep his knees holding up. The year AFTER he moved to second base, he played all 162 of the Astros’ games. Apparently, he was moved to center because he wasn’t the best 2B, but that’s not catcher. Overall, there’s a lot of quality, a lot of quantity, huge flexibility, and the Astrodome to adjust for.
4. Bobby Bonds
This was a shock. Back in June, looking at something entirely else, I ran a BB-Ref sort of right fielders. As I scanned the list, to my surprise, I found that Bobby Bonds had more WAR than Sammy Sosa. Not many more, but more. So I did my usual double-check and looked them up in the New Historical Abstract. That book only goes to 1999, but it lists Bobby at #15 and Sammy at #45. However, in a supplemental section after the rankings, Bill mentions that Sammy’s 2000 season would raise him to about 30th instead of 45th.
Sammy had two fine years left after 2000, so the question was whether those two years could catch him up the remaining 15 slots to Bobby. Well, of course, the higher you go, the harder it is to pass someone, so I figure they’re pretty close, just as WAR suggests. Sammy has a fine, fine peak, placed very late in his career. It’s a little less than you’d expect, because, that late in his career, his defense had gotten weak. Normally, a player’s bat peak and his glove peak are much closer to each other. Bobby doesn’t have quite that kind of peak, but his career is essentially one extended prime. That, I assume, is how he can rank so high with so few seasons played.
As of now, I can’t separate them, so I have them together on this ballot. I moved Babe Adams down because I’m not sure he’s better than Sammy Sosa, and comparing the two is a true headache.
5. Sammy Sosa
I rank this as the third-worst prediction I made when I was doing player comments for The Book That Has Come to be Called The Big Bad Baseball Annual. When Sammy moved on the Cubs, I ridiculed the acquisition and referred to him as “Sammy So-so.” That’s a bad prediction, although, at the time, he had not yet been playing any better than that. I should have realized that Wrigley would suit his hitting style and he would come alive there. I will confess: I have not really ranked Sammy Sosa. I concluded that I could not separate his value from Bobby Bonds’ and just put him right after where I put Bobby. I’ve spent much more time analyzing Bobby.
6. Mike Piazza
The best hitter on this ballot not named “Bonds.” The question, of course, is his glove. Right now, this is a matter of considerable debate, with little in the way of hard facts being cited. Welcome to analyzing catcher defense. I am being conservative; like a lot of other people, I’m trying to go with my memory of seeing him play. Of course, the last three hometown catchers I got to see were Tom Pagnozzi, Mike Matheny and Yadier Molina. My standards may be a tad high. My memory of Ted Simmons is that he was a better catcher than Mike, but I am aware that there may be a visual illusion there. Simmons did not look that bad to me because he was mobile when I saw him play. As catchers go, he could go. Mike was not so fast. I have no way of evaluating pitch framing or pitcher handling.
Look. I know Mike Piazza is going into the HoM, probably this year, and I’m quite happy about that. He obviously deserves to be in there. But he’s mostly going in there for his bat, and I think I found five guys with a little more to offer.
7. Babe Adams
This is mostly a repeat of last year’s comment. I compared Babe Adams to Rick Reuschel. Rick got elected. I think the comparison still holds. So, I ‘m going to repeat it. Besides, you guys know what it’s like to write an original comment on someone you’ve been commenting on for years. I spent this year sorting out the front log. I have nothing new to say about Babe Adams.
Well, actually, I do. It turns out that Babe Adams is entitled to a year of MLE credit for 1917-18. Here’s what happened. Babe got sent down to the minors in 1916, for lousy pitching. Bill James, in a couple of places in the New Historical, hints, without outright saying, that it’s possible that both Babe and Rube Marquard’s arms went south after the two of them hooked up in a 21-inning complete game, for both pitchers, in 1914. Bill doesn’t actually SAY this, but he hints that it might be true. Well, anyway, by 1916, Babe’s arm was pretty shot, so down he went to the minors. And promptly recovered. 1917 is clearly a major league year; he destroyed a weak minor league. 1918 is even better, in a stronger league. At the end of 1918, war attrition caused the Pirates to bring him back up, but they really should have done that in the spring of 1918. So, I give him one year, not two, of MLE credit. I ALWAYS discard the first minor league year that is major league worthy, because managers don’t have crystal balls. I’m doing that to Babe Adams. I’ll also be doing it to Gavy Cravath. I think a lot more of Babe’s candidacy than I do of Gavy’s, so there’s no bias. What’s good for one is good for the other. The one year of MLE erases about half of Reuschel’s 350-IP advantage, without being likely to drop Babe’s ERA+.
Back to last year’s comment: This year (meaning 2012), I tried to find a pitcher who gets HoM votes and is at least close to comparable to Adams, but who is more contemporary. I found Rick Reuschel, whom I was looking at anyway. Here are the basic numbers:
Name Years IP ERA+
Babe 19 2995 118
Rick 19 3548 114
One guy has about 350 more IP; the other has a lead of 4 in ERA+. That’s close to take your pick, although I’d give the edge to Reuschel, or I would have before I discovered the MLE season in Babe’s career. In both cases, it’s a lot of seasons for the IP. Both pitchers have a lot of short-workload years, usually because their arms went dead for a season or so, and that happened repeatedly to both of them, followed by quick comebacks.
But then, you get to what I call extras. Rick, on balance, is a slightly better hitter. He was a good hitter early, and then gave it up as he wore his body down and put on weight. Adams wasn’t a hitter. But Babe is famous for exploding the 1909 World Series like he was Bob Gibson, while Reuschel, in multiple WS, was lousy. That, for me, erases all the IP edge, given the ERA+ difference.
In addition, while both pitchers have up and down careers, complete with mid-career seasons where they were not in the majors at all, I can’t identify a decent peak or prime for Rick, while I can for Babe. Rick has good years, but I can’t find a good peak cluster, even using my loose definition of “best 3 years in a span of 5.” The same applies to prime, where I use “best 5 years in a span of 7.” You just end up with too many of the weak seasons breaking up the good ones.
Babe is different, and odd. The peak runs from, essentially, 1909 to 1911, and has an ERA+ for the span of 153. The prime runs from 1909 to 1913, with an ERA+ of 142. Babe even has a secondary peak, from 1919-1921, with an ERA+ of 150. There are some seasons with fewer than 200 IP in there, but no real partial seasons. Rick can’t match that. This is the main problem I have with Reuschel: the inability to identify a peak or prime. Adams did cluster his best years, while Reuschel did not. That, in essence, is why I have Babe ahead of Rick.
8. Curt Schilling
A very strange career. Before he turned 30, Curt was a good pitcher who suffered if given more than 200 IP in a season. He’d usually suffer the next year, but it was pretty clear what the problem was. But then, at age 30, in 1997, he found a strikeout pitch that added about two K per game to his rate. He improved sincerely, both in the quality of the pitching and in the workload he could handle, and started making the All-Star team (his first year was that 1997). And then, in 2001, at age 34, he just stopped walking anyone, resulting in more good years as he aged, and a string of K/BB ratio titles.
I know of no one who is really similar. It’s kind of like what might have happened if Dazzy Vance had been put on a major league roster at age 21 and then had his team just wait until he turned 30 and got really really good. Or if you just turned Curt’s career upside down, so all the best years would be at the front. That would make sense. But, as it is, he has a smattering of black ink, a lot of short and weak seasons before the prime, and a weird career to compare to anyone. He also, of course, gets credit for the Bloody Sock. (If U2 had recorded “Sockday, Bloody Sockday” in November of that year, Schilling would probably still be solvent just from the royalties.) Actually, his whole post-season record is really really good. It’s his only “extra”, but it is one hell of an extra.
9. Hugh Duffy
Here's my leftover comment from last year, when he ranked much higher, there not being an overpowering rookie class: Over at BB-Ref, his Hall of Fame Statistics are those of an average Hall of Famer, which, to me, means the bottom of the middle circle or the very top of the outer circle. His seasonal and career comparables are a bunch of Hall of Famers. Neither of those systems factors in defense properly, and Hugh played a lot of center. No, he was not the dominant player of his era. He was an average Hall of Famer. I'm not sure that Bobby Bonds was that good. I may have Hugh underrated. I am pretty sure I don't have him overrated. He does have one fine postseason extra.
The addition is that I found out that Hugh may deserve a year of minor league credit. He jumped, in 1901, from the NL to the AL, with the Milwaukee Creams (really). I'm not exactly sure how this happened, but the Creams ended up in a minor league in 1902-03, replaced by a different AL team in Milwaukee. Hugh stayed with them, as player/manager. His 1902 season is ML caliber. His 1903 is not. Then, in 1904, he was back in the majors. I don't know how or why. Perhaps his Milwaukee contract was for three years or something. In any case, you can add a year of ML credit. I add about half a year, because the decision to remain with the Creams may have been Hugh's own decision, and not the ML teams completely refusing to hire him.
10. Tommy Bridges
This is, essentially, a repeat of last year's comment. I still think the chart in this comment is very convincing. For all I know, I have Tommy underrated, even among this group. Although I try to balance everyone's methods, I've started looking at pitchers by 1) taking their career endpoints, 2) adding ten years to the front end and the back end, which will include everyone who can at all be considered the player's contemporary, and 3) running sorts at BB-Ref, starting with just plain old WAR. What I'm looking for is a BB-Ref sort that mirrors HoM/HoF voting for the time period. Not one that favors or doesn't favor my own preconceptions, but something that mirrors previous votes. This is just to give me a starting point. I don't quit analyzing there, but it does give me context, and also points out if I've just missed on someone else who ranks higher.
With Tommy Bridges, I struck gold. Here are the first 13 entries on his WAR list, covering from 1920-1956:
Rk Player WAR From To IP ERA+
1 Lefty Grove 98.3 1925 1941 3940.2 148
2 Bob Feller 66.0 1936 1956 3827.0 122
3 Carl Hubbell 64.4 1928 1943 3590.1 130
4 Warren Spahn 61.2 1942 1956 2960.0 127
5 Ted Lyons 58.8 1923 1946 4161.0 118
6 Dazzy Vance 57.1 1922 1935 2933.2 126
7 Hal Newhouser 56.3 1939 1955 2993.0 130
8 Red Ruffing 53.6 1924 1947 4344.0 110
9 Robin Roberts 52.5 1948 1956 2608.1 123
10 Tommy Bridges 50.7 1930 1946 2826.1 126
11 Bobo Newsom 45.9 1929 1953 3759.1 107
12 Waite Hoyt 45.9 1920 1938 3656.0 113
13 Dutch Leonard 45.6 1933 1953 3218.1 119
Out of this list, Roberts has no overlap at all with Bridges' actual career, so I discarded him as not really a "contemporary." That leaves Bridges at #9, behind a bunch of Hall guys and ahead, basically, of guys who are not in halls. That is, the sort basically mirrors hall voting.
The big deal here, to me, is the large gap between Bridges' WAR of 50.7 and the next guy down, Bobo Newsom, at 45.9. That's rare. It's also the largest gap on the list except for that between Lefty Grove and everyone else. It's not rare to find a guy on a WAR list between Hall guys and non-Hall. I mean, those are the guys we're supposed to look at, right? Those who are on the border. The trick is to decide who is the worst of the "ins" and who is the best of the "outs." In Tommy's case, the WAR gap between Tommy and Bobo strongly indicates that Tommy's the "worst of the ins." And Tommy is not just an accumulator, with many more IP than the closest guys on the list. His IP are, if anything, a bit low. In short, he is certainly the "worst of the ins." And there's a serious WAR drop before the best of the outs.
Extras don't hurt. He pitched very well in the World Series, and is due somewhere between 1 and 2 years of WWII credit, although they are near the end of his career, so there is doubt as to how much they would help. But overall, I'm left with what strikes me as a discovery and a large one. So I put him here. Thanks to those who have been voting for Tommy for years now. I would not have looked at him except that he kept getting votes.
11. Don Newcombe
Again, I have nothing to add to last year's comment. In fact, I don't think I will ever improve on it. So, here it is: I don't have a standard formula to rank players with. Instead, I try to balance among the various ranking methods. What do the various WAR systems say? How about IP and ERA+? Win Shares? Where does he rank among his contemporaries? Does he have an identifiable peak and prime? Black and grey ink? And then there are the "extras" that I constantly mention. What are "extras?" Don Newcombe's career. That's what extras are.
12. Kenny Lofton
I may have him overrated. His offensive stats don't overwhelm, which puts a lot of burden on the glove. His postseason record isn't real good. His career must have something I'm not aware of. In 2000, age 33, he stopped hitting .300, stopped going to the All-Star game, and became a nomad, changing teams every year. I don't know why. What I did note was BB-Ref's ranking of his offense among all-time players. Here's the list that appears as his header:
76. Alan Trammell
77. Mike Piazza
78. Andre Dawson
79. KENNY LOFTON
80. Ichiro Suzuki
81. Willie Keeler
82. Scott Rolen
That's stiff company, and it does NOT include his glove. It's also part of the reason I got conservative about Mike Piazza. I would never have thought he'd only rank, in all-time offense, only two places above Kenny Lofton.
13. Jim McCormick
Again, this is a repeat of last year's comment, because I have done no new work on Jim, other than to decide he slotted in just behind Kenny Lofton. Don't ask me to give you a statistical analysis of why I did that. It was a much feel as anything else. You try comparing a contemporary CF to an 1880s pitcher.
As many of you know, I've been obsessing over 1880s pitchers. To analyze them at all, you have to make monstrous adjustments. Jim here only pitched in ten championship seasons. But he had over 500 IP in five of them, with one over 650 IP. The ERA+ scores for those years don't look tremendous, but is that lack of quality - just tossing the ball up there and letting fielders do your job for you? Or is the low ERA+ a result of arm fatigue?
Now, take a look at Jim's 1882, 83, and 84 seasons. In 82 and 84, he had over 500 IP, and his ERA+ aren't so hot, even with 200 IP in the Union Association, roughly a class A league. But in 1883, he pitched fewer than 400 innings, and had the 170 ERA+ of his life.
So, now which is it? Journeyman innings-eaters or great pitchers who happened to be born at just the time to come to the majors when the majors were testing arms to destruction in order to find out just how big a workload a starting pitcher can take? I, obviously, vote for #2.
14. Hilton Smith
Again repeating from last year because I didn't find anything new this year: "Remains where he is because I still think that he has the best contemporary reputation of any remaining Negro League player, pitcher or position." I moved him ahead of a couple of other backloggers because I am more sure now that he was better than Dick Redding than I was last year. I was being conservative about Hilton, thinking that old stats might rise op for Dick Redding and make Hilton look like amateur hour. Instead, the new stats did not help Redding at all.
15. Lou Brock
The last few spots on my ballot have always been a bit fluid, with people slotting in and out. This time, what happened was that Don Malcolm came to visit, and we took a look at who was trying to steal bases on Johnny Bench and who was not. We concluded that, indeed, the few guys who tried to steal on Bench were the A-list base stealers of the time. But then, it occurred to me that Johnny Bench wasn't the only catcher coming into the game in the 1970s who could throw. With stolen base totals going way up in the late 1960s, arms became much more important to getting catcher jobs. But Lou Brock's stolen base attempts just kept going up and up. Lou, at his base stealing peak, was fighting a trend against what he was doing. It doesn't make him into Rickey Henderson or anything, but it does polish his luster a bit, and down heart the bottom of the ballot, that pays off. Rickey, of course, would get voted first on any ballot, unless someone like Barry Bonds came along at the same time.
Others Requiring Comments, in alphabetical order.
Sal Bando
When confronting a new candidate, the first thing I do is look at his WAR totals on BB-Ref, within his contemporaries at his position, and compare them to his placement within the New Historical Abstract (even if his career extends beyond 2000; it's a good starting place). If those two systems generally agree, I think I have a good first cut, and start looking at things like ink, MLEs, postseason, and my host of "extras."
I looked at Sal's contemporary third basemen. My method for this is to set the years on BB-Ref's Play Index to ten years before and after the player in questioned played, and then run a sort by WAR. When I did this for Sal, he finished 9th. Not 9th of all time, 9th within his contemporaries. That's not a great placement. In the Historical, he ranks right above Ken Boyer, who is often cited here as the weakest HoM guy (although I don't actually agree with this, I do agree he is one of the weakest). Neither WAR nor the Historical counts war years, and Boyer is entitled to a couple. At this point, I would have continued to look for extras in Sal's career, but this ballot is overrun with the "rookie" class. I realized that there was no way Sal could make THIS ballot. After the rush dies down in a couple of years, maybe. But now, he's swamped like everyone else on the backlog.
Gavy Cravath
I found a whole bunch of stuff about Gavy this year, in bits and pieces. It didn't help his cause. I imagine you all know most of it, so I'm going to summarize as best I can.
Gavy, having played well in the PCL in 1907, ended up with the Red Sox in 1908. He actually played pretty well, although the raw stats don't look like anything; it was 1908. Importantly, he did NOT hit for power, registering all of one home run. In any case, the Sox, awash in outfield prospects, let him go at the end of the year. In 1909, he got tryouts with both the White Sox and the Senators, and failed badly, apparently due to a combination of illness and injury. He ended up with Minneapolis, in the American Association at the time, and played reasonably well there.
The lights turned on for Gavy in 1910. Minneapolis had a ballpark with a very small right field, and Gavy, who was a righty hitter, learned to hit fly balls to the opposite field, and starting hitting some homers, along with a general improvement in hitting altogether. In 1910, he was clearly a major league hitter, and even better in 1911. I have a pretty strict methodology for granting minor league credit (see Babe Adams). I ignore the first year that is clearly major league worthy, because you can't ask a manager in April to predict what a guy will have done by September. So, Gavy gets no MLE credit from me for 1910, but does for 1911. I know that many voters here give him much more MLE credit than that, but my methods discard that first year for reasons that I think are more than adequate. In any case, someone in the majors should have given Gavy a serious look after 1910. They all did after 1911.
Due to confused paperwork, it was not immediately apparent which major league team had Gavy's rights. There was little moving of players from the AL to the NL or vice versa at the time, due to a rule or two (thanks, Mike Emeigh), but Gavy's rights, according to the paperwork that did exist, ended up in the hands of the Phillies, a NL team. A NL team with a ballpark that was, well, the Baker Bowl.
At this point, I started wondering just how many of Gavy's homers were the result of the ballpark. His own personal home/road splits are insane: 93/26. That's 3.58 to 1. Cravath actually won TWO NL homer titles without hitting even ONE road homer either year! But is this realistic? Gavy might, like Bill Dickey, have just figured out how to game his ballpark, and should get credit for the intelligence and work. Except that this is not what happened. Gavy discovered the value of opposite-field fly balls in Minneapolis in 1910. He ended up in the Baker Bowl due to confused paperwork, not his own desire to play in that particular park. So, I give him no credit for that. However, individual player splits are always bad if you can get something more global. There are ballpark splits for the Bowl, but they are a problem, because they mostly involve players who still hit mostly grounders, and left/right splits won't work for Gavy because he was a righty hitter who hit fly balls to right field. He was lucky, not a genius, to land in Baker.
I went looking for a fly ball right field hitter in Baker. Chuck Klein came to mind, but he's a full decade later than Gavy, and Babe Ruth is right at the break point. So that was not completely satisfactory, but then I found him. The best match I could have hoped for. Fred Luderus. Listed at #88 in the New Historical Abstract at first base. Fred was a lefty fly ball hitter, in the Baker Bowl, with a near-exact match to Gavy's years there. After a couple of tiny audition years, Fred was in the Baker Bowl from 1911-1920. Gavy was 1912-1920. Fred's home/road homer splits? 63/21, or exactly 3 to 1. So, I used that ratio - 3/1 - to discount Gavy's homers. It's less than Gavy's personal, but still large enough to really reflect the effect of the ballpark.
You can guess what happened, All of that lovely homer-driven black ink went away; much of what is left is OBP titles, of all things. And what did it leave, when all the black ink went away? A very short career, with only one year of MLE credit (you might argue me into two years, but it won't get Gavy on my ballot), very little ink, and a bad glove. I am sorry to say this, but inducting Gavy into the HoM would strike me as nothing more than inducting the Baker Bowl. Now, I have no objection to the HoM opening up a ballparks wing and inducting the Baker Bowl as the classic ballpark that it was. But I do have strong objections to inducting the Baker Bowl into the player's' wing of the HoM, under the name "Gavy Cravath." And that's all I see here.
Dick Redding
I suppose I could go into long boring detail, but Dick has been discussed to the point where that's just piling on. This year's discovery was Baseball Gauge; you can find the rest of this comment earlier in the ballot thread. Baseball Gauge has the following career numbers, bearing in mind that this is baseballgauge's career compilation and may not agree with anyone else's. They have Jose Mendez with a career (or, at least, everything Baseball Gauge has) ERA+ of 159, Smokey Joe Williams with 153, and Dick Redding with 124. I didn't look up Bullet Rogan, because his hitting makes his ERA+ much less useful than for normal pitchers. I did notice that Redding does not have strikeout percentages any higher than Williams or Mendez, which I mention because last year, the Wikipedia article on Redding had two yearly lines with strikeout percentages like Rube Waddell's, just overpowering. Gauge doesn't have those lines, and the Wiki article has been completely rewritten, as far as I can tell, and those two lines are gone from there, too. My interpretation of this, for HoM purposes, is Mendez in, Williams in, Redding out. It would take a LOT of explaining to get me past that 30-point ERA+ gap.
Phil Rizzuto
Most of this is a repeat of last year's comment. I can't improve on it, and I don't remember anyone last year dismantling it. So, sorry to bore you with repetition, but here it is. BB-Ref's new (as of last year, at least new to me) snapshot system, where you can select a range of seasons and get totals, paid off for me. Phil Rizzuto, in his entire career, had an OPS+ of 93, in 1661 games played. Rabbit Maranville had 1622 games played, with an OPS+ of 92, which is pretty similar (1913-1922).
But, then, there are the remaining 1009 games that Rabbit played. Phil does get three years of war credit, but Rabbit gets one back for 1918, and perhaps a minor league credit season for 1927. The credit difference just ain't gonna make up the difference in games played. Everyone I know of agrees that Rabbit was the better glove, by a serious margin. So I sometimes vote for Rabbit and I haven't voted for Phil. Rabbit's career INCLUDES Phil's, with 6-8 more full seasons added on.
Yes, Phil does have 1950. But Rabbit has 1914, which is often cited as the greatest defensive season ever, was one of the big keys to the Miracle Braves, and got Rabbit the #2 place in the MVP voting. He had been #3 in 1913, if you're talking peaks. I call it a wash, except for those 1,000 more games that Rabbit has. Do you vote for Rabbit Maranville?
Luis Tiant
The following comment is copied directly from last year's ballot, which was copied from the year before: "Very similar rate and career length to Wilbur Cooper. High length, good rate, but not great. But unlike Cooper, he wasn't in the middle of a bunch of guys who did the same sort of thing. So he stands out more." This is enough to get him on my normal ballot (#8 last year), but this year's rookie crop has dropped him off the list. I don't think any LESS of Luis than I did last year.
Vic Willis
This is last year's comment, when I voted Vic #14. I don't think less of him than I did then, but this is a great, great rookie class that ran a lot of last year's ballot off the list. Last year, I mentioned that, of the Pittsburgh Six pitchers that I like so much, Vic here has the big workload. I decided that his rates aren't enough worse than Sam Leever's to make up the workload difference. His Hall of Fame Statistics over at BB-Ref are surprisingly good. He actually was voted into the Hall of Fame. I imagine you are all sick and tired of my reciting the characteristics of the Pit6, so I won't repeat them here.
It's done! It's done! The ring is in the volcano! I can go to bed now!
Just remove Bonds then.
Technically speaking, that's ambiguous. But I think I know what you meant. ;)
Heh. That's what I was counting on, OCF. :-D
I'm a peak voter and more WS than WAR.
1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Mike Piazza
Well, that was easy. No boycotts, no discounting for me. Greatest LF ever. Greatest SP since at least Lefty Grove, greatest righty since Walter Johnson. Piazza ahead of Biggio would be a catcher bonus. Don't think he's the best catcher ever but he's top 5. Biggio is top 10, anyway, though I guess I'm not gonna be his best friend or anything. Pretty good group, but I couldn't quite get Biggio up to #4.
4. Hugh Duffy (was #1 last year). Was regarded as the greatest player in the game at his peak, which not too many of our candidates can say. Well, most can't say it because they're dead, but you know what I mean. I think I overreacted previously to the fact of his one supercalifragilistic year or rather the fact that his peak consists of 1 year. But his surrounding prime is still very very good.
5. Jim McCormick (was #2). I supported him for many years but finally saw the handwriting on the wall. But I still believe that we have underrepresented pitchers from the golden age of pitchers. Pitching may have had less value than today, but individual pitchers threw so many IP as to have tremendous value. I think we over-normalized for that, flying in the face of the facts of the matter. And McCormick, IMO, was the best of that era that we have not elected yet.
6. Craig Biggio. See above.
7. Tommy Bond (was #4). I also supported Bond for many years. See McCormick, Jim.
8. Johnny Pesky (was #9). Full war credit.
9. Ed Williamson (was #11). A glove guy who also had some pop in his bat. When not camped out on 3B, he played a couple years at SS. I'm not sayin' he's ARod or Ripken, but he was of their type. You have to discount his 27 HR, sure, but to what? Outs? His teammates were all trying to hit the ball into the short LF bleachers in 1884 but it was Ed--not Anson, not King Kelly, not Gore, not Dalrymple--who was able to do so. And I don't remember anyone ever discounting any of these other guys either for their 1884 HR or for all those ground rule doubles throughout the rest of the era. Still, his case is as one of the great glove men of the 19C who also led the league in games played 4 times. Maybe he was basically Cal Ripken after all.
10. Phil Rizzuto (was #6). Full war credit.
11. Mickey Welch (was #5). I was never a supporter of Mickey Welch. Any resemblence to Tim Keefe is coincidental. Still, see McCormick, Jim.
12. Albert Belle (was #3). Comps would include Elmer Flick, Charlie Keller, Ralph Kiner.
13. Kirby Puckett (was #14). The idea that Kirby was atrocious is the one single best argument that Moneyball is all just a bunch of ######## after all. He was the best baseball player on the field almost every single day of his career.
14. Don Newcombe (was #8). Newk gets extra credit for all the time he missed to the quota system and Korea. I see a properly credited Newk as pretty comparable to Schilling.
15. Tommy Leach (was #23).
Maybe next time.
16. Vern Stephens (was #7). Played against one of the greatest cohorts in the history of the game--ie. 1940s AL SS (Boudreau, Pesky, Rizzuto, Joost)--and looks good doing it. Yes he played against a weakened AL during WWII but so did Lou Boudreau and Charlie Keller and Hal Newhouser. But he proved after the war what caliber of player he was. Take away 1948 and you'd be hard-pressed to show that Boudreau was any better, in fact.
17. Curt Schilling.
18. Dizzy Dean (was #10). Extreme peak candidate but, hey, he had an extreme peak.
19. Bucky Walters (was #12).
20. Sal Bando (was #13). We are short of 3B after all. I thought we were supposed to be the anti-HoF.
21. Elston Howard (was #15). Another guy who was substantially held back by the quota system.
22. Dale Murphy (was #16).
23. Thurman Munson (was #26).
24. Al Rosen (#17)
25. Dick Redding (was #18)
26. Gavvy Cravath (was #19).
27. Dave Parker (was #20).
28. Larry Doyle (was #28).
Luis Tiant is top 100.
Bruce Willis is top 50.
As far as what I consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.
I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control.
I've systematically worked this in for anyone that is a reasonable candidate, all the way down to guys like Tommy Henrich, Mickey Vernon and Dom DiMaggio. If you want a copy of my Rosenheck access database with these guys added, please let me know.
I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury risk, you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.
I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I just prorate the season, since a pennant is a pennant.
I give catchers at 50% career bonus, above and beyond what Pennants Added they accumulate.
I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.
I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players, for which I rely on DanR's WARP, though I weigh them based on Pennants Added, not his salary estimator. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings, and I make a manual adjustment for the extended career length that started in the 1960s (not shown below). My position player rankings are based largely on DanR's numbers.
After the player I'll list his Pennants Added and the player above and below him at his position on the lists.
1. Barry Bonds LF (n/e) - 2.78 PA, (Babe Ruth, Ted Williams). In the conversation as the greatest player of all time.
2. Roger Clemens SP (n/e) - 2.43 PA, (Walter Johnson, Cy Young). In the conversation as the greatest pitcher of all time.
3. Mike Piazza C (n/e) - 1.46 PA, (Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra). DanR's WAR shows Piazza narrowly as the greatest catcher of all time, once I give Piazza credit for 2006 (Dan cuts off after 2005). Bench ends up with 1.41 PA and Berra 1.35. These numbers include a 50% career bonus for catchers.
4. Craig Biggio (n/e) - 1.04 PA, (Lou Whitaker, Ryne Sandberg). Sure he hung on a little too long. That doesn't take away from the fact that he's an easy HoMer. He's somewhere around the 9th or 10th best 2B of all time. A little more valuable than Alomar and Sandberg, a little less valuable than Carew and Grich. We are talking 3000 hits from a 2B who also caught a little. This is a no-brainer.
5. Curt Schilling SP (n/e) - (Don Drysdale, Hal Newhouser). I did not have time to run Schilling through my full system. But just comparing his BB-Ref WAR to guys like Kevin Brown and David Cone, it's obvious he belongs. Assuming he had average defenses he's comparable based on ERA+/IP with guys like Drysdale and Newhouser. Heck, you could make an argument that he's up there with Hubbell. Very easy HoMer.
6. Phil Rizzuto SS (1) - 1.02 PA, (Ernie Banks, Bert Campaneris). Now that I've given him systematic war credit and adjusted his 1946, during which he was recovering from malaria (which also impact his projections for 1943-45, if you use 1946 in those), he shows up with Rafael Palmeiro as the best holdover position player by a substantial margin. The top 4 on this ballot are very close.
7. Jack Quinn SP (2) - 1.10 PA, (Eppa Rixey, Whitey Ford). I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.
8. Bert Campaneris SS (5) - .93 PA, (Phil Rizzuto, Joe Sewell). .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly.
9. Urban Shocker SP (6) - .94 PA, (Tommy Bridges, Billy Pierce). Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.
10. Sammy Sosa RF (n/e) - .92 PA (Willie Stargell, Goose Goslin). Sosa has an enormous peak - his 2001 is overshadowed by Bonds, but it was an incredible season - a 203 OPS+. But his peak was short, basically 1998-2002 was his only period as a great player. DanR's WARP is tough on corner outfielders, but not inappropriately so. He deserves to make the Hall of Merit, but he's not a slam dunk like the top 4 on this ballot.
11. Gavy Cravath RF (7) - .90 PA, (Larry Walker, Bobby Bonds). Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project. I'm much more comfortable moving him this high after seeing his latest translations.
12. Ben Taylor 1B (8) - Negro Leaguer, Chris Cobb's MLE from 8/25/2004 suggests 325 WS. Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. The Hall of Fame's Negro League Committee had access to a lot of data, and they chose to include him, in a group that we generally agreed with. That counts for something with me. I would have much preferred his election to that of Oms.
13. Tommy John SP (9) - 1.00 PA, (Bret Saberhagen, Wes Ferrell). Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.
14. Tommy Bridges SP (11) - .94 PA, (Stan Coveleski, Urban Shocker). Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.
15. Dave Concepcion SS (12) - .88 PA, (Joe Sewell, Dave Bancroft). Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.
Dropping out because of the new class:
16. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (13) - .88 PA (Stan Hack, Buddy Bell; Andre Dawson, Jim Wynn). I was a big fan of his awhile back, then he faded. He's back now, in no small part because of Dan R's work.
17. Bucky Walters SP (14) - .90 PA (Burleigh Grimes, Dwight Gooden). Walters once again gets my hotly contested 15th place vote. Johnny Pesky, Rabbit Maranville (with credit for a full 1918), Dave Bancroft, Don Newcombe, Burleigh Grimes, Edgar Martinez, Orel Hershister and Kevin Appier were top contenders. Walters combination of big years, hitting, and playing in what I consider a very tough era (the late 30s, right before war depleted the ranks and after nearly 40 years without expansion) won him my final 6 points.
18. Bernie Williams CF (15) - .83 PA (Jim Wynn, Brett Butler). This number puts him a little below Dave Bancroft and Buddy Bell in the .85 range. He is right there with HoMers like John McGraw, Billy Herman and Hughie Jennings. Some of the guys in this range are in, some aren't. He's clearly in the gray area. I am a Yankee fan. Questions about his defense - I don't think it was quite as bad as the advanced metrics say - keep his value low. I'd love to do more digging on this - but I do feel like there are all sorts of goofy things with the fielding numbers for those Yankee teams. That being said, I'll err on the side of caution this year.
Perpetual eligibility helps here - I don't have to worry about him falling off the ballot. Edmonds will end up placing higher. But any bump in Williams' defensive ratings would move him into the low, but clear HoMer range. Based on Mike Emeigh's comment on the ballot thread, I think this is reasonable and could bump Bernie next year. This evaluation gives him credit only as the numbers stand now.
Prominent newcomers:
David Wells - I kind of think of him as the Bobo Newsom of the 1985-2005 period. Bounced around and pitched pretty well wherever he went. I am a big fan of long career very good pitchers. I did not have time to run him through my system, but looking at his BB-ref WAR, his ERA+, IP and comparing him with others who I have run through, I think he's most comparable to Newsom and Newcombe.
Kenny Lofton CF - .80 PA (Dom DiMaggio, Larry Doby). DanR's WAR does not like Lofton nearly as much as BB-ref's. Big year in 1994 and a nice run from 1992-96, but he seems to me like a very good, not great player. The big difference here is defense. If I could be convinced his defense was better than DanR thinks, I could move him up a bit.
Julio Franco 2B/SS - .68 PA (Joe Tinker, Jay Bell). This does not include any credit for 1998-2001. Even if I gave him credit for 1.0 WAR per year (his age 39-42 seasons) we are talking about him bumping up to the Art Fletcher/Dick Bartell class. He was an all-star caliber player from 1984-1991, but never an MVP candidate or anything like that. But he was a really good player, and a neat story playing as long as he did.
Steve Finley CF - .65 PA (Willie Davis, Bobby Murcer). Really nice career. I drafted him for $3 in an auction league in 1991 during my freshman year of college and he was one of favorite players for ever after . . .
Mandatory comments:
Hugh Duffy - .72 WAR. Pretty cool that perpetual eligibility keeps guys like Duffy around. rWAR has him with .4625 from 1893 on, so I need to come up with some estimates for 1888-1892.
What I did was run a regression on Pennants Added using Dan’s WAR against Chone’s WAR. Then I used the resulting function to convert Chone’s WAR to PA for the missing years. The reason I did it this way was because I like Dan’s WAR better and if there were any differences between the two in terms of how they treat Duffy, I wanted to lean towards Dan’s method.
Amongst players that finished their career before 1920, the .72 PA number puts Duffy in the company of guys like Roy Thomas and Fielder Jones. He’s just not good enough for me.
Luis Tiant - .88 PA. Comparing him with Reuschel . . . I've got Tiant 54th amongst post-1893 SPs eligible. I give him credit for 3362.3 tIP, at the equivalent of a 112 ERA+, and he was +5 runs as a hitter. Reuschel I get at 3745.3 tIP, a 115 rate, and the same +5 BRAR.
Looking at their seven best seasons in terms of WARP, I see Reuschel at 8.7, 6.5, 5.3, 5.2, 5.1, 4.9, 4.8; Tiant at 7.7, 6.4, 5.2, 5.1, 4.9, 4.6, 4.5. Reuschel's top 3 consecutive were 18.8; Tiant's 16.4.
Using a Bill James NHBA peaky type system, with my wins, I get Reuschel at #55, Tiant at #100. Using a JAWS type system, I get Reuschel #39, Tiant #60.
Dick Redding - He was good, but I think we are overrating him. I can't see how he's better than Grimes, who just misses my ballot.
Vic Willis - My system does not love Willis. He is not worse than the worst HoM pitchers we've elected (Bob Lemon and Joe McGinnity), but I have 20-25 pitchers ahead of him, ranging from those on my ballot, down through modern guys like Hershiser, Appier, Gooden, Denny Martinez, older guys like Grimes, Waite Hoyt, Bob Shawkey. This is a short career. This is not a knock, I just think he's in the middle of this glut. He was also a terrible hitter for a pitcher in his era, which costs him 28 runs compared with an average hitting pitcher for his time. Give him those runs back and I'd have him around even with Tiant.
Sal Bando - .67 PA. Using DanR's WAR he winds up in a cohort that includes Harlond Clift, Larry Gardner, Ken Caminiti, Art Devlin. I am not feeling this one at all. It's basically 11 years of very good. He's not close for me.
Non-Mandatory comments:
Robin Ventura is a tier below with .83 PA (yes, there are that many players at this level - which is one thing that suggests HoVG for both Edgar and Ventura). Norm Cash and Bobby Bonds are also here. Buddy Bell is right there, a little actually, at .85 PA.
Since he was discussed during the 2010 election a bit, Thurman Munson is close, but about a full season behind Bill Freehan. I give a 50% career bonus for catchers and with that, I get Munson at .79 PA. I have Freehan at .87. I draw the line at Freehan in, Munson out, but I can definitely see support for Munson as a candidate.
Bob Johnson - .80 PA. He's in the mix - but slides down when you deflate his numbers from WWII. I see him in a group with Fregosi, Cey, Cruz and Schang. I don’t think Edgar Martinez was all that better than Bob Johnson.
John Olerud - .75 PA (George Sisler, Fred McGriff). Olerud was a really good player with a very nice split peak (1993/1998). rWAR shows him as deserving the 1993 MVP that most statheads think should have gone to Frank Thomas. But he only had 7 years with 3 or more rWAR. It wouldn’t kill me to see him elected. He was a more valuable player than Fred McGriff, Kirby Puckett, Jake Beckley or Charlie Keller, for example. But he’s doesn’t have quite enough to make my ballot at this point.
Fred McGriff is down there with guys like Roy White, Jack Clark, Dale Murphy and George Burns at .73 PA. Defense and base running count.
Kirby Puckett - .69 PA. Loved to watch him play, but there's just not enough there. DanR's numbers show him similar to Rizzuto - before giving any war credit. I've got him in a group with Ken Singleton, Bob Elliott, Fielder Jones, Joe Tinker, Harlond Clift, etc.. Very good player. A solid all-star in his day. But not a HoMer.
1)Barry Bonds: A lot better than any other position player on the ballot.
2)Roger Clemens: Ditto for pitchers.
3)Mike Piazza: Ditto for catchers.
4)Craig Biggio: Of 2B/3B/SS, he is 20 WSAB ahead on anyone in 8 year prime; better than anyone except Al Rosen in 3&5 year peak, and way ahead of anyone in career value.
5)Cannonball Dick Redding: Chris Cobb’s MLEs have him as best pitcher after Clemens. I see him as the last Negro League electee to the HOM.
6)Hugh Duffy: See Albert Belle.
7)Albert Belle: As a Prime/Peak voter, I see Duffy and Belle as similar players. Duffy with a slightly better 8 year prime (about 1.5 WSAB per yr) and Belle with the better peak. Each had 3 MVP caliber seasons. Duffy managed 7 All-CG selections compared to Albert’s 5. Ultimately that and Duffy higher career value broke the tie for me.
8)Carl Mays: Better 8 year prime than Dean and Grimes and more All-CG seasons (8). I lump the 3 together somewhat because each had 3 MVP caliber seasons and similar peak value.
9)Ken Singleton: I have Singleton and Gavvy Cravath very close in most every measure, though Cravath has slightly more career value. I gave Singleton the edge because I trust his numbers more plus they were compiled in higher quality leagues.
10)Gavvy Cravath: See Ken Singleton. Note: I gave Cravath credit for 1907,09,10,&11; based on the posted MLEs.
11)Dizzy Dean: Better prime than Burleigh Grimes. Ol’ Diz wasn’t great long, but was consistently great year-to-year during that period which I think gives him a slight leg up.
12)Al Rosen: Based entirely on 7 seasons, which has got to be a record low for a post deadball player who didn’t lose time to WWII. Those 7 seasons were better than any other 2B/3B/SS 8 year prime and featured better 3&5 year peaks as well. For 7 years, 105 WSAB is pretty respectable career value as well.
13)Burleigh Grimes: 3 MVP caliber seasons and a Diz-like peak.
14)Johnny Pesky: Similar Prime/Peak to Williamson/Bando, with more All-CG selections. He ultimately gets the nod as he played a lot of his career at SS as a more valuable position than 3B.
15)Vic Willis: I’ve gone back and forth quite a bit on this spot, but I’m going to give Vic Willis the nod here. I feel his WSAB (adjusted to 162 game season) over-state his case. Technically, those numbers are better than Mays/Dean/Grimes, but his era had crazy IP numbers which I feel overstate his value from a historical perspective. I can’t ignore his 8 All-CG selections though (especially since I spent a lot of time making them). Ultimately, he was near the top of his league in pitching more than some of the other guys who were close to this ballot.
Next 10 (in no particular order): Cicotte, Joss, Schilling, Chance, McGriff, Williamson, Bando, Frank Howard, Sosa, & (Evers,Rizzuto,Tiernan, or Bernie Williams; they are all right together at the 10th spot on this list).
Top Ten Explanations:
Sal Bando: With Ned Williamson as my next 2 3B on the ballot. Williamson edges Bando slightly on prime and peak and has more All-CG selections (6 to 3). Neither has much more career value than Rosen even though both had longer careers.
Phil Rizzuto: Similar peak to Pesky and the same number of MVP caliber and All-CG selections (1 and 7), but Pesky’s 8-year prime is significantly better (101 to 83 WSAB). The only real advantage he has over Pesky is in career value but it’s not a big advantage (and I’m not a career voter). I could see moving Scooter up my list a bit, but I can’t see moving him ahead of Pesky.
Luis Tiant: 75 WSAB 8-year prime is less than 10/year. Big knock in my system. Peak is good, but not better than a lot of guys in my system. 2 MVP seasons are the only thing that have me second-guessing myself, but while he might move up, he’s probably not making my top 25. I do understand the career value argument, but I am a peak/prime voter.
I am fairly liberal in giving credit (war, blacklist, MiL), but try to be conservative in the amount of credit I give. I do not boycott for any reason.
I am still in the process of back-filling my PHoM, but will probably revise if I modify my system. Regardless, it won’t affect the PHoM inductees this year since they’re all newbies.
Final Ballot:
1) Barry Bonds - $513.8M (PhoM 2013). My second-best player all time, just ahead of a fully war-credited Ted, but still well behind the Babe.
2) Roger Clemens - $328.9M (PHoM 2013). The third best pitcher so far, behind only The Big Train and Denton True and 16th best player all-time.
3) Mike Piazza - $219.3M (PHoM 2013). The third best all-time catcher, a long way behind Josh and a little over $30M behind Bench (and about $10M ahead of Berra). Yes, he stunk at throwing runners out. But luckily for him he played in one of the least important era for that skill ever. He was average or better at all other aspects of catcher’s defense, including CERA, which I do believe in.
4) Curt Schilling - $170.4M (PHoM 2013) Most years he could be at the top of the ballot. He just happens to be part of the best class in 79 years. No, he wasn’t Clemens, Maddux, Randy or Pedro, but that’s not the standard here. The K/BB and UER rates really stand out.
5) Craig Biggio - $156.7M. I can understand how a strict careerist or WS disciple could have him #3 this year, but I just don’t agree with it. His defense was overrated and he was just hanging on for 3,000 those last couple of years without providing much value. That said, he’s still clearly above the in/out line – he just goes to the top of the backlog.
6) Sammy Sosa - $148.6M. He’s short on ton of career value. But it was still a heck of a peak. Clearly ahead of the backlog for me.
7) Eddie Cicotte - $139.7M. I give him full credit for 1919 and 1920. He had a couple of really good peak years with some solid prime built around it. Would’ve probably ended up an obvious HoMer if he hadn’t thrown the series.
8) Elston Howard - $138.2M. I am a big fan of the “integration squeeze” guys. I give him 3 years of NeL credit from 1952-54. I don’t give him extra credit for sitting behind Yogi, but his 4 year peak, especially for a catcher, really stands out in my system.
9) Vic Willis- $138.2M. One really great year (1899), but then was just solidly above average or better for most of the rest of his career.
10) Ned Williamson- $135.6M. The one 19th century position player that I think the electorate really missed out on. Yes, I think he was better than Ezra (despite the fact that Sutton is buried about 15 minutes from where I live).
11) Luke Easter- $135.0M. Another “integration squeeze” guy. He was the cleanup hitter for a factory team that had other NeL stars on it and was better than the actual NeL team that was located in St. Louis. He lost his war years working in military industry. And by then he was too old to be considered for the start of integration. When he did get his chance, all he did was produce despite injuries throughout almost all of his actual ML career. Then he spent another few years still mashing in the minors well into his 40’s. This is a conservative ranking for me – I think if he been given the opportunity, he would’ve ended up ranked much higher.
12) Ben Taylor – $134.8M. Another NeL first baseman, and my best 1b between the ABC boys and Sisler. Had a monster 1914 and put up very good OBP’s with great defense in the deadball era.
13) Kenny Lofton - $133.5M. He may have the greatest amount of defense/baserunning value as a percentage of overall value of anyone over my PHoM not named Ozzie.
14) Tommy Bond - $133.3M. He was the great pitcher between Spalding and the 1880’s stars.
15) Gavvy Cravath - $131.6M.He was exactly the type of player this project was designed to find. I am not going to punish him for taking advantage of his park when no one else had the foresight to do so.
Returnees:
Tiant – Right near my approximate PHoM line.
Rizzuto – Only a couple million behind my PHoM line, but still behind Campaneris for shortstops.
Duffy – I have no problems with those who vote for him (about $5M out). He’s ahead of fellow 1890’s outfielders Ryan and GVH.
Bando – Doesn’t do as well in other uberstat systems as he does in Chone/BBRef.
Redding – Only has two peak years and a 5 year prime as far as I can tell. Those years were great, but he seems to add very little outside of that.
My ranking system isn’t that specific. It’s based more on BB-ref’s WAR than anything else, but I still have WS and old WARP totals on my spreadsheet. I use Humphrey’s DAR in some cases, but I can’t say I’ve applied it systematically.
I also try to include both peak and career candidates, but tend to lean more towards the career when push comes to shove. When I talk about WS or WAR rate, that’s per PA.
My PHoM this year are Barry Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Biggio.
1. Barry Lamar Bonds (new) Not a lot to debate here, unless you want to get into the question of who’s the best player of all time. I haven’t boycotted in the past, and I’m not starting now. Makes my PHoM this year.
2. Roger Clemens (new) See above, except subsititue “pitcher” for “player”. I will admit I disliked him significantly more than Barry. But that was because I’m a Mets fan. Makes my PHoM this year.
3. Mike Piazza (new) As has been discussed, his overall defense wasn’t as bad as its reputation, although his throwing probably was. Best hitting catcher in MLB history, adds up to one of the top 5 all-time. Makes my PHoM this year.
4. Craig Biggio (new) Behind Piazza because he doesn’t rank as high among 2Bmen, but clearly above the HoM line at the position. I never understood blaming him for hanging around to get to 3000 hits – if the team is willing to play you, that’s their problem. Makes my PHoM this year.
5. Curt Schilling (new) Clearly qualified, well ahead of the other pitcher candidates on the ballot (except that guy in front of him). Has an extremely strong prime, and impressive postseason numbers.
6. Bus Clarkson (1) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. (Quick comparison to Alomar – WS 344 to 376 in 1900 fewer PA, OPS+ 123 to 116, 3B/SS to 2B. Even deflating the MLEs a bit, that looks pretty close to me.) Made my PHoM in 1997.
7. Dick Redding (2) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.
8. Bobby Bonds (6) More of a prime candidate than anything else, but his peak and career values aren’t bad either. Even with Smith’s election, I still think 1970’s OF are a bit underrepresented. Slides ahead of Johnson due to WAR, but they’re still quite close. Made my PHoM in 2008.
9. Sammy Sosa (new) I really can’t find much to differentiate him from Bobby Bonds, when you look at the comprehensive metrics. Has a slightly higher peak, but he was also allowed to hang around longer. 609 homers are impressive, but a 128 OPS+ is not.
10. Phil Rizzuto (7) Accounting for the malaria as an effect of the war helped him move up a couple of spots. With war credit, it’s pretty clear he’d have more career value than Stephens. Peak is a different issue, but he’s not that far behind Stephens, and he did have a few excellent seasons. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.
11. Luis Tiant (8) He had some outstanding years, and contributed long enough to build up a decent career value. There were a lot of great pitchers in his era, but that happens sometimes. Made my PHoM in 2005.
12. Norm Cash (9) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism), and the fluke year. Even if you take 1961 out, he’s still clearly ahead of Cepeda and Perez in WS and WARP rate. He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1.
Made my PHoM in 2003.
13. Bob Johnson (10) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. I think the era considerations have been a little overblown, and I still don’t think Joe Medwick was any better than Bob. Made my PHoM in 1992.
14. Kenny Lofton (new) This is mostly because of his total WAR, but he does generally look better than the other CF candidates. I’d like to get some clarity about his defense.
15. Tommy Leach (11) Doesn’t do great by WAR, although a lot of the other 3B candidates are in the hard-to-differentiate 70s clump. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.
16. Gavvy Cravath (12) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WAR isn't quite as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.
17. Tommy Bridges (14) Very hard to differentiate between Bridges and Cone. Like Johnson, extremely consistent, which I feel is a strength. I am giving him war credit, but not minor-league credit.
(17A Andre Dawson)
18. Ben Taylor (13) A solid candidate who might have been overlooked. 3rd-best 1B in the Negro Leagues, a good hitter with an outstanding defensive rep. Also did some pitching early on. I have him as the best overall 1B of his era – Sisler was better at his best, but that just didn’t last long enough. Made my PHoM in 2009.
19. Bill Monroe (4) Big drop, partly because of new guys, but also because
those 1912-14 numbers don’t look good. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM in 1939.
(19A Ralph Kiner, 19B John McGraw, 19C David Cone)
20. Cesar Cedeno (22) Outside of the big total WAR difference, I don’t see a lot differentiating him in value from Lofton. (Yeah, that’s a pretty big ‘outside of’)
21. Don Newcombe (18) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument – see the discussion in the Belle thread about alcoholism. And he gets less attention from the HoF people than Gil Hodges or Allie Reynolds. Read about the Yankees and Dodgers in the 50s, and tell me who people thought was a better pitcher.
But I have to admit that even with all the extra credit, there isn’t quite enough to keep him ahead of Cone and Bridges.
(21A Sam Thompson)
22. Thurman Munson (19) Didn’t hit quite as well as Bresnahan, but Roger also accumulated a fair amount of hanging-around value, even by WAR.
23. John Olerud (20) I understand the comment that McGriff looked more like a Hall of Famer, but Olerud was just perpetually overlooked. He clearly had significantly more defensive value than McGriff, and the offensive difference is not huge (OPS+ 134-128). Olerud looks better by the comprehensive metrics, and I think he’s just ahead of the Crime Dog.
24. Dizzy Dean (21) Does have a really good peak argument by some metrics, but he stands out less by WAR than he did by the other ones.
(24A Hughie Jennings)
25. Jack Clark (16) Slides down a bit with the latest WAR numbers.
26. Vern Stephens (23) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
27. Bernie Williams (28) A really good player when he was at his best, but everything says the defense was so bad in the second half of his career that it keeps him away from the ballot.
28. Urban Shocker (26) He is a good candidate, but his career is a bit too short, even with the ½ year war credit.
(28A Charley Jones)
29. Tony Lazzeri (29) Still sure he’s the best backlog MLB candidate at his position. Compare him to Larry Doyle, who some people vote for. Their career lengths are similar, Doyle was a better hitter, but not much, and Lazzeri was a much better fielder.
30. Tony Perez (24) He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average. And for a mostly 1B guy, even his peak OPS+s aren’t impressive.
(30A Roger Bresnahan,)
31. Bob Elliott (25) I’m comfortable putting him ahead of the 70s group now. He’s got a case for being the best 3B in baseball in the late 40s, those guys simply don’t.
32. George Van Haltren (17) Wins the “Wait, why did I have this guy so high?” award. I don’t reject all peak arguments, but I’d take his consistency over Duffy’s big years. Last year I said I had the urge to move him down a bunch and move Mike Griffin up. I was half right. Made my PHoM in 1972.
33. Bucky Walters (32) Would be higher, but when you consider a wartime discount, his 115 ERA+ really isn’t impressive.
(33A Graig Nettles, 33B Pete Browning)
34. Joe Tinker (27) His DRA numbers are really, really good. I also decided I was probably underrating SS in general a bit.
35. Dale Murphy (33) Excellent peak, and now I see him as ahead of Puckett even with the abrupt end of the peak.
36. Kevin Appier (34)
37. Kirby Puckett (36)
38. Fred McGriff (30)
39. Ron Cey (35)
40. Orlando Cepeda (31)
41. Jose Cruz
(41A Rollie Fingers,)
42. Sal Bando (37) I really don’t see much to differentiate the 1970s 3B clump (which includes Nettles for me). Their value came in different ways, but none of them stand out for me. And they’re not good enough to put them all in.
43. Albert Belle
44. Elston Howard (41) WAR absolutely hates him, giving him almost no value outside of his 4-year peak. Even with credit for military service, the slow pace of integration & being stuck behind Yogi, you can’t get that record into a HoM-worthy career. Other metrics are not so harsh, but I can’t just ignore something so striking.
Made my PHoM in 2004. Have to admit I probably made a mistake here. Looking at my voting history, this probably would have wound up with Ralph Kiner in my PHoM.
45. Eddie Cicotte
(45A George Sisler)
46. Dave Bancroft
47. Buddy Bell
(47A Nellie Fox)
48. Mike Griffin
49. Vic Willis (47) Geez, I don’t know that I’ve ever commented on Vic Willis before. I think he’s pretty comparable to Cicotte – he’s more of a prime/career guy, but the total is about the same. If we’re looking for pitchers, the 20s & 30s (Bridges/Dean) are the underrepresented eras. Willis isn’t a bad candidate, but I don’t see anything special about him.
50. Pedro Guerrero
51. Bobby Veach
52. Dolf Luque
53. Spotswood Poles
54. Gene Tenace
55. Carl Mays
56. Hugh Duffy I just don’t see anything that special about him. He had the great 1894, but he had a fairly short career, and I don’t see much to differentiate him from the other 1890s OFers. It may be that I’m overrating Van Haltren, but I don’t think I’m significantly underrating Duffy.
57. Johnny Evers
58. Carlos Moran
59. Ken Singleton
60. Tommy John
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