Wednesday, December 12, 2012
2013 Results: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Biggio are elected to the Hall of Merit!
(bbtf)
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio have been elected to the Hall of Merit!
The timing for our first year electing 4 candidates could not have worked out better, since class of 2013 is the strongest in terms of electees that we’ve ever had. The top of the 1934 ballot included Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Eddie Collins, Pop Lloyd, Smokey Joe Williams and Cristobal Torriente, but only 2 were elected.
Bonds and Clemens were each unanimous at 1 and 2. I believe that’s the first time since Babe Ruth and Rogers Hornsby in 1941, but I could be forgetting one.
Piazza received 30 of 34 3rd place votes and Biggio was 4-5 on 25 of the 34 ballots and 3rd on two others.
Curt Schilling picked up the other two 3rd place votes and 22 total top 5 votes and appears to be a lock for election by 2016, possibly sooner. Sammy Sosa also polled a strong 6th which should see him inducted by 2017.
Kenny Lofton was the only other new candidate to get a vote, finishing 15th. He was just behind Hugh Duffy and ahead of Bucky Walters. Lofton was named on 10 ballots.
Amongst the backloggers Vic Willis moved from 6th to first - an average returnee would have lost 3-4 places this election, yet Willis actually moved up 2 spots.
Phil Rizzuto is still a strong second in the backlog and Ben Taylor improved from a tie for 14th all the way to 9th, gaining 7-8 places on the field. The race should be tight when we finally elect a long-term backlogger again in 2017. The last ballot nudged Dick Redding ahead of Gavy Cravath for 10th place.
Buddy Bell has cracked into the core group of about 15 reasonably strong candidates (he finished 17th), replacing Sal Bando who fell from 10th to 23rd.
The consensus at the top, the net loss of 3 voters, and strong class of new candidates (the average voter had to drop 3 players from his ballot to make room for the new class) caused 22 players to drop off the ballot. I cannot remember a number that large.
RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 n/e Barry Bonds 816 34 34 2 n/e Roger Clemens 782 34 34 3 n/e Mike Piazza 732 34 30 2 2 4 n/e Craig Biggio 620 34 2 16 9 3 3 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 n/e Curt Schilling 499 30 2 10 10 1 2 1 1 3 6 n/e Sammy Sosa 308 26 4 1 4 2 3 2 6 1 2 1 7 9 Vic Willis 160 14 1 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 8 4 Phil Rizzuto 155 14 1 3 1 1 4 2 1 1 9 14T Ben Taylor 139 12 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 10 6 Cannonball Dick Redding 122 10 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 8 Gavy Cravath 120 12 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 12 5 Luis Tiant 111 12 2 3 3 2 2 13 12 Bobby Bonds 106 8 1 3 2 2 14 7 Hugh Duffy 104 8 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 15 n/e Kenny Lofton 103 10 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 16 14T Bucky Walters 93 7 1 2 3 1 17 24 Buddy Bell 92 9 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 18 13 Tommy Leach 88 8 1 1 1 1 1 3 19 16 Ned Williamson 87 7 1 1 1 1 2 1 20 11 Don Newcombe 85 8 1 2 1 2 1 1 21 20 Fred McGriff 81 8 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 22 17T Hilton Smith 74 6 1 2 1 1 1 23 10 Sal Bando 73 6 2 1 1 1 1 24T 21 Tommy Bridges 72 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 24T 19 Bus Clarkson 72 6 2 1 1 1 1 26 17T Burleigh Grimes 70 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 27 22 Johnny Pesky 69 7 1 1 1 1 3 28 28 Bert Campaneris 68 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 29 25 Bob Johnson 56 6 1 1 1 1 2 30 32 Tommy John 55 5 1 1 1 2 31 38 Kevin Appier 50 6 1 1 1 1 2 32 34 Mickey Welch 49 5 1 2 1 1 33 29T Tony Perez 45 5 1 1 1 2 34 42T Urban Shocker 40 3 2 1 35 37 Dave Concepcion 39 5 1 1 3 36 42T Lee Smith 39 4 1 1 1 1 37 35 Albert Belle 38 4 1 2 1 38 33 Kirby Puckett 36 4 1 1 1 1 39 39 John Olerud 34 4 1 2 1 40 47 Elston Howard 33 3 2 1 41T 23 Dizzy Dean 32 3 1 1 1 41T 31 Bob Elliott 32 3 1 1 1 41T 59 Carl Mays 32 3 2 1 41T 48T Jim McCormick 32 3 1 2 45 48T Addie Joss 32 2 1 1 46 36 Pie Traynor 29 3 2 1 47 50 Ed Cicotte 29 2 1 1 48 40T Norm Cash 28 3 1 1 1 49 46 Babe Adams 28 2 2 50 45 Vern Stephens 27 3 1 1 1 51 44 Dolf Luque 27 2 1 1 52T 57 Dave Bancroft 24 2 1 1 52T 56 Wally Schang 24 2 1 1 54T 54 Tommy Bond 21 2 1 1 54T 40T Dwight Gooden 21 2 1 1 56T 27 Frank Chance 20 2 1 1 56T 58 Jim Rice 20 2 1 1 56T 80 Ken Singleton 20 2 1 1 59T 55 Lou Brock 19 2 1 1 59T 53 Dale Murphy 19 2 1 1 59T 63 Al Rosen 19 2 1 1 62 26 Bernie Williams 18 2 1 1 63 41T Carlos Moran 17 2 1 1 64T -- Chuck Finley 16 2 1 1 64T 73T Tony Mullane 16 2 1 1 66 67 Fred Dunlap 15 1 1 67T 60 Jack Quinn 14 1 1 67T 68 Frank Tanana 14 1 1 69 62 Ernie Lombardi 13 1 1 70 69T Lefty Gomez 11 1 1 71T 78 Luis Aparicio 10 1 1 71T 76 Luke Easter 10 1 1 73 65T Bruce Sutter 9 1 1 74T 61 Ron Cey 8 1 1 74T -- Roy White 8 1 1 76T 81T Sam Leever 7 1 1 76T 81T Dave Parker 7 1 1 76T 69T Gene Tenace 7 1 1 79T -- Mark Belanger 6 1 1 79T 64 Orel Hershiser 6 1 1 79T 29T Bill Monroe 6 1 1 79T -- Jim Sundberg 6 1 1 Dropped Out: Thurman Munson(41T), Sam Rice(65T), Larry Doyle(69T), Rabbit Maranville(72), Willie Davis(73T), Cesar Cedeno(75), Chuck Klein(77), Rusty Staub(79), Deacon Phillippe(81T), Ray Dandridge(84T), Don Mattingly(84T), Elmer Smith(84T), Tom York(84T), Frank Howard(88T), George Van Haltren(88T), Orlando Cepeda(90T), Charlie Hough(90T), Billy Nash(90T), Joe Tinker(90T), Jim Fregosi(94T), Tony Oliva(94T), Dan Quisenberry(94T). Ballots Cast: 34
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< 1 2I think there is a chance Lofton gets 5%, not because of SABR arguments, but because of the perception that he's clean.
A great contest would be to see who can correctly pick the BBWAA order from first on down. If there were 100 entries, I doubt the winner would even have the first 10 places correct.
Among the interesting highlights contained within:
- Congratulations to the 5 people who have contributed to all 116 elections: Howie Menckel, Rob Wood, John Murphy, Al Peterson... and Mickey Welch. Dan b and Devin have only missed one election, and Ed/Ned Williamson has only not received votes in two elections.
- Only Curt Schilling, Hugh Duffy, George Van Haltren, Ed Williamson, and Jimmy Ryan have received a Score of 40% or higher and not been elected in a future election. Score is points per ballot, expressed as a percentage of a perfect ballot.
- 491 unique players have received at least 1/6th of a vote in our elections (Candy Cummings garnered that partial vote - and no others - in 1898).
- 114 unique voters have cast a ballot in our elections - I think (I could've missed a name change or two over the years). 26 of us have voted in over 100 of these elections, including 22 'active' voters (voted at least once since 2009).
- Just in the last two elections, there have been 40 unique voters - and 54 since 2009. Although the vote totals have been lower the past 3 years, the voters still appear to be out there - just not all together for each election.
- Despite not receiving any votes in 2013, Van Haltren & J.Ryan have still averaged a Score of more than 10% per election since becoming eligible. John McGraw and Dick Lundy were the only two elected to the HOM without hitting a 10% average.
- There is a dip in active HOM players in the 1950s, compared to the active players between 1923 and 1990. I'm wondering if this is a result of dropping from 3 Major Leagues to 2 (counting the NeL as the 3rd) before expansion starts in the 1960s.
Anyways, there might be some interesting stuff for you to take a look at.
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/HallofMerit/
I'm embarrassed to admit that I have no idea who Ben Taylor is. (I'm not a voter, but I enjoy reading the HOM threads from time to time.)
And in Win Shares he squeaks in sometime by 2018 (I forget which year but the post above was summing up everything by system through 2018.
So, as an update, Luis Gonzalez would get in in 1 system and that knocks Scott Rolen out in WS (using said methodology) dropping him to 2 systems.
And (since I'm rambling again about this goofy project I did), here are the yearly results (of newbies only) starting with 2013:
2013: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Schilling [obviously it already diverges from actual HOM results)
2014: Maddux, Thomas, Glavine
2015: Johnson, Martinez, Mussina
2016: Griffey, Sheffield, Smoltz, Piazza
2017: Ramirez, Rodriguez, Edmonds
2018: Jones, Thome, Rolen [big question on whether these guys will be eligible]
new backlog leaders: Abreu, Guerrero, Kent, Sosa, Lofton
Of course, there is a question of how good the systems are for rating relief pitchers. I tend to be skeptical of their value (on a HOM level) for the most part and don't have any adjustment built in to boost their numbers. I mean, Hoffman certainly had a damn fine career, but... What I should do is plug in Rivera into this system with this crop of players and see how he comes out. Hopefully I'll try that and comment on what happens.
fun stats, Patrick W!
Rivera certainly fares better than Hoffman, and (compared to this group of players) would make it (assuming he doesn't come back as planned this coming season) using WSAB. Using the full 5 systems method discussed above (see comment 57)he comes out between Lofton and ahead of L.Gonzalez.
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