If we don't get 10 people voting I think we should shut it down

1978 prelim

1) Ron Guidry
2) Phil Niekro
3) Mike Caldwell - good year for pitchers
4) Ted Simmons
5) John Matlack
6) Dave Parker
7) Dennis Eckersley
8) Jim Rice - this is really the linchpin of a Hall of Fame case?
9) Jim Palmer
10) Roy Smalley
11) Amos Otis
12) Jack Clark
13) Ron Cey

14-20) Dave Goltz, Bill Madlock, Dave Concepcion, Davey Lopes, Larry Bowa, Carlton Fisk, Vida Blue

If we don't get 10 people voting I think we should shut it down

I'm having a ton of fun participating in this project and would hate to see it go but I certainly understand the sentiment. If we drop below 10, we've probably reached the point of diminishing returns.

So- all you primates, readers and lurkers, don't let the MMP project die on the vine. It's not a huge commitment. It takes about an hour (more or less) to do a thorough ballot. And we vote every 3 weeks or so. As someone who was a HoM lurker for years before joining up as a voter, I can assure you that it's much more rewarding to be a part of the project.

OK, I may join.

A couple of Qs?s to get me up to speed on the metrics quoted above:
Niekro's BBRWAR of 10.1. Does it account for unearned runs? Does it account for his hitting and fielding? his WAR on bb-ref shows up as 9.6.

All the "BBREF WAR" numbers were actually taken from seamheads, just like the Win Shares. It's a lot easier to use the one page to get all the data. They say they use BBREF WAR numbers but I don't doublecheck them.

I believe BBREF WAR accounts for unearned runs, adjusts for team defense and adds in pitcher hitting and fielding.

This year should be interesting. I can see five "correct" answers: Guidry or Niekro among pitchers depending on where your replacement level is, Rice or Parker among the sluggers and Simmons if you have a catcher bonus. Only 2 of the 5 are HoM inductees which means this year has the potential to be the first MMP who is not HOM.

Here are my Win Values for the 1978 starting pitchers (estimated wins above average based upon game-by-game analysis of starting pitcher runs allowed and runs support):

NL
1. Bob Knepper 3.9
2. Vida Blue 3.6
3. Steve Rogers 3.5
4. Burt Hooton 3.5
5. Craig Swan 3.3
6. Phil Niekro 2.8
7. Ross Grimsley 2.4
8. Pete Vuckovich 2.3
9. Dick Ruthven 2.1
10. Don Robinson 2.0

AL
1. Ron Guidry 6.8
2. Mike Caldwell 5.0
3. Jon Matlack 4.9
4. Dave Goltz 4.5
5. Jim Palmer 4.0
6. Fergie Jenkins 3.3
7. Dennis Eckersley 3.1
8. Larry Gura 3.1
9. Luis Tiant 2.8
10. Ed Figueroa 2.6

By this game-by-game measure, Phil Niekro's season is kinda ordinary.

This year should be interesting. I can see five "correct" answers: Guidry or Niekro among pitchers depending on where your replacement level is, Rice or Parker among the sluggers and Simmons if you have a catcher bonus. Only 2 of the 5 are HoM inductees which means this year has the potential to be the first MMP who is not HOM.

Just eyeballing those 5, I have Guidry ahead by a mile. That's a historic season, right up there with the some of the best years posted by the likes of Morgan (at 2B) or Gibson (as a P).

I have Rice 2nd, though it's close. The big difference between Rice and Parker is actually defense. Parker has the better defensive reputation overall- thanks in large part to his great arm- and actually won a Gold Glove in '78 but Rice had the better year fielding. This is the point at which Parker's range and accuracy have started to decline, even if the Gold Glove voters haven't noticed yet. BB-ref gives him an even zero for fielding runs. His range factor per game and per 9 have dropped to 2.14 and 2.17 which are both below league average (2.29 and 2.31). By traditional numbers, Parker has more errors (13) than assists (12). Rice, meanwhile, is plus 8. He's also below league average in range factor but he has a much better ratio in assists to errors (13 to 3).

Niekro sneaks in between the two sluggers for 3rd.

And Simmons is 5th. He'd be ahead of Parker except for a qualified catcher bonus. A full catcher bonus would have him in 4th. However, Simmons played 88% of his games at catcher (the rest were in left field) so he gets 88% of the bonus. That's not normally significant but in this case, it makes a difference.

It's possible that someone else will crack the top five when I do a full ballot.

Niekro won't look that great above a baseline of average. It's the 334 innings pitched that helps him when compared to a baseline of "replacement". The guy is in the middle of a 3 year run leading the league in batters faced.

I usually like big inning guys. In this case, it's good enough to get Niekro into 3rd.

Thanks DL. Next Q?: who's done a good study of league strength for the late 70s?

Also, one of you typically posts a playoff stat summary for candidates, right? I do recall Guidry having a fine post-season, plus the 163rd game vs Boston that I watched in a college dorm.

Tom H: My understanding is that the 9.6 WAR you see on the pitcher value page on BBREF is has WAR as a pitcher. The 10.1 WAR at the top of this discussion page includes his WAR as a hitter as well. (which you find on the batters value page on BBREF)

Tom H: My understanding is that the 9.6 WAR you see on the pitcher value page on BBREF is his WAR as a pitcher. The 10.1 WAR at the top of this discussion page includes his WAR as a hitter as well. (which you find on the batters value page on BBREF)

As RA+ equivalent record: I have Guidry at 24-7, for a single-season Fib.WinPt. score of 35. With all those innings, Niekro comes in at 23-14, for single-season FibWinPt of 23. It's not close, as you can see by subtracting to get Niekro as Guidry plus (-1)-7. For Niekro, by RA+ equivalent record, this 23-14 is essentially tied for his second best season with 1969 (21-11); his best season was 1974 (23-11). Of course, 1978 was Guidry's best season by a considerable margin, although his 1977 and 1979 were quite good.

I haven't worked up the rest of the pitchers, and when I do, the numbers for Guidry and Niekro might shift slightly (park factor from a different source).

I think league strength is baked into BBREF WAR in the "RRep" column.

Here's my prelim ballot. Probably won't change.
My usual method (uber stat blender) w/ 10% catcher bonus and no postseason credit.

1 9208 Ron Guidry
2 8961 Phil Niekro
3 8496 Jim Rice
4 8388 Dave Parker
5 7665 Mike Caldwell
6 7282 Amos Otis
7 6933 Ted Simmons
8 6809 Carlton Fisk
9 6572 Doug DeCinces
10 6530 Jon Matlack
11 6425 Jack Clark
12 6351 Dennis Eckersley
13 6304 Jim Palmer

14 6286 George Foster
15 6225 Graig Nettles
16 6138 Vida Blue
17 5972 Ron Cey
18 5890 Andre Thornton
19 5863 Mike Schmidt
20 5839 Gary Carter

Even WITH the extra innings I'm still surprised how close Niekro comes to Guidry.
He even tops him in both baseballreferenceWAR and fangraphsWAR.

We're just a couple years away from the 1st season of baseball that I followed (1980).
I sure hope we do get the ballots in to keep the project going!

some ingredients that go into my prelim that are not reflected in common stats:
1 I discount NL (no DH) hitters WS for reasons I've described in previous threads. In fact I would argue we all should.
2 Guidry won 3 games vs the Red Sox in Sept, two of them shutouts. He also was great in the playoffs.
3 Countering the above, I doubt WS gives as much credit to the Yankee defense as it should (James 'cap' on team D). ALL of the NYY pitchers were good. Ed Figueroa was 20-9 with a 2.99 ERA, even tho he had a KO/BB ratio of 1.19. Thus, I will ding Ron G a bit.
4 I do use some of Rob W's win value system
========

Guidry or Rice 1 and 2, very close
3 Parker
gap
4 Otis
5 Fisk
6 Simmons
7 DeCinces
8 Nettles/Caldwell
10-14 Niekro Foster Singleton Eck Matlack

WAR framework, with a higher baseline replacement level than "normal", resulting in a reduction in replacement wins (Wins Above Reduced Replacement). All fielding numbers used are an average of TZ and DRA.

American league pitchers have dominated my supplementary ballot, although #1 ended up being an NL pitcher.

1. Phil Niekro; 8.65 WARR 343 innings of sub 3 ERA, while pitching in an extreme hitters park, in front of one of the leagues poorest defences
2. Ron Guidry; 7.95 WARR great raw numbers, but was the opposite of Niekro: pitching in a pitcher's park in front of one of the league's best defences
3. Mke Caldwell 7.15 WARR
4. Jim Rice 6.40 WARR best offensive season. dropped a spot because he played in a hitter's park
5. Dennis Eckersley 6.40 WARR
6. Dave Parker 6.05 WARR Best NL offensive player
7. Amos Otis 5.95 WARR
8. Doug DeCinces 5.35 WARR
9. Dave Golz 5.35 WARR
10. Jon Matlack 5.35 WARR
11. Carlton Fisk 5.30 WARR
12. Vida Blue 5.30 WARR
13. Jim Palmer 5.30 WARR

The last 6 on the list were very close so I have to look more closely at that group before the final ballot.

The rest of the top 20

Ted Simmons
John Stearns
Mike Schmidt
Bob Knepper
Graig nettles
Andre Thornton
Luis Tiant

Lots of good relief seasons, no great ones:

Stanley: it is surprising to me that a guy who went 15-2, mostly in relief, could have such a low WPA.

We're getting into the era where I recognize names from baseball cards (Amos Otis, Mike Caldwell) but I never really knew they had seasons this good.

Stanley: it is surprising to me that a guy who went 15-2, mostly in relief, could have such a low WPA.

Shouldn't be. Among Stanley's wins:

2 came as a starter. He was supported by 11 runs in each of those two starts.
2 came after he blew a lead.
4 came after he replaced a starter who couldn't get through 5 innings. In three of those four games he gave up multiple runs.

It's hard to pile up WPA in those outings. And his two losses were his two worst outings of the year, and cost him more in WPA than he gained in any of his good outings.

-- MWE

Re: Rice's Fielding.

Well, not actually. I have started looking at fielding though, and we are now dealing with a season that I have not analysed before, so I'm taking the opportunity to streamline my spreadsheet. And, in looking at the AL fielding, I found this interesting.

Boston was 7th in the league in outfield putouts. When you break down the putouts by position, you get the following percentages.

RF: 32 per cent (league average 30 per cent)
CF: 38 per cent (league average 40 per cent)
LF: 30 per cent (league average 30 per cent)

So, I wondered if this was typical, and I went back to 1974, the last AL season I had data already loaded in to a spread sheet.

Boston was 3rd in the league in outfield putouts.

RF: 34 per cent (league average 30 per cent)
CF: 42 per cent (league average 41 per cent)
LF: 24 per cent (league average 29 per cent)

The thing is, because of the wall at Fenway, I'd expect the 1974 figures to be typical of a Red Sox' team, which would make 1978 the oddity. So I'll come back to this with more data when I can.

I calculate my own Player won-lost records from Retrosheet play-by-play data. I calculate them two ways: tied to team wins (pWins) and context-neutral (eWins). I look at wins over positional average (WOPA) and over replacement level (WORL).

Here are top 25s for pWOPA/pWORL and eWOPA/eWORL. These figures include postseason games, just weighting them the same as regular-season games.

Here's my ballot. I had a lot of trouble filling out the end of it. Basically, everybody I looked at for the last two slots had something that made me question whether they really deserved it. The numbers quoted below are pWins-pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL.

1. Ron Guidry, 20.4 - 10.2, 5.2, 6.6 - this is an outstanding season, excellent postseason just adds to it
2. Jim Rice, 26.9 - 17.3, 4.3, 6.3 - this is an excellent season, but doesn't quite match up to Guidry's
3. Amos Otis, 23.9 - 15.5, 4.1, 5.9 - my Player W-L records really like Otis's defense, as in one of the best CF ever (for his career, 1978 is merely typical in this regard); 1978 was Otis's best offensive season
4. Dave Parker, 24.8 - 19.6, 1.6, 3.6 - his #'s are much better in eWOPA/eWORL; my sense was that the NL was better than the AL at this time, so I'm a little troubled that my top 3 guys are in the AL; I might swap Parker and Otis because of that
5. Carlton Fisk, 18.6 - 13.1, 3.1, 4.6 - best C in MLB
6. Davey Lopes, 22.6 - 17.7, 2.8, 4.7 - best 2B in MLB and best player on NL pennant winners
7. Mike Caldwell, 19.0 - 11.2, 4.0, 5.4 - this is the peak of my fandom and Caldwell pitched for a division rival, so I remember him well, but I bet there are lots of guys reading this thread going, "Who the heck was Mike Caldwell?"
8. George Foster, 25.0 - 18.6, 2.5, 4.5 - not quite as good as in 1977 when he hit 52 HRs, but still a damn good player
9. Phil Niekro, 21.7 - 19.6, 2.0, 3.9 - my system doesn't love him as much as WAR, but he was a workhorse and a very good one
10. Roy Smalley, 20.0 - 19.3, 1.3, 3.1 - best SS in MLB, looks better in eWOPA/eWORL
11. Jon Matlack, 16.4 - 12.5, 2.0, 3.4 - another guy who looks better in eWOPA/eWORL
12. Jim Palmer, 17.7 - 13.6, 2.2, 3.6 - not as good as he had been in earlier years, and he only had one more decent year left in him (1982), but still good enough to sneak onto the bottom of the ballot
13. Larry Bowa, 20.3 - 17.7, 2.0, 3.7 - best SS in the NL

Postseason credit NLCS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS
RonCey 4  16  4  5  1  0  1  3  2  4  .313  .389  .563  .951  0  0
DLopes 4  18  3  7  1  1  2  5  0  1  .389  .389  .889  1.278  1  0
RSmith 4  16  2  3  1  0  0  1  0  2  .188  .235  .250  .485  0  0

LarBowa 4  18  2  6  0  0  0  0  1  2  .333  .368  .333  .702  0  0
Schmidt 4  15  1  3  2  0  0  1  2  2  .200  .278  .333  .611  0  1

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Hooton 1  1  7.71  0  0  0  0  4.2  10  4  0  5  2.143  

Postseason credit ALCS

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS
AmoOtis 4  14  2  6  2  0  0  1  3  5  .429  .529  .571  1.101  4  0
GeBrett 4  18  7  7  1  1  3  3  0  1  .389  .389  1.056  1.444  0  0

Nettles 4  15  3  5  0  1  1  2  0  1  .333  .333  .667  1.000  0  0

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV CG  IP  H  ER BB  SO  WHIP
LarGura 1  1  2.84  1  0  0  0  6.1  8  2  2  2  1.579  

RGuidry 1  1  1.13  1  0  0  0  8.0  7  1  1  7  1.000  

Postseason credit World Series

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS
Nettles 6  25  2  4  0  0  0  1  0  6  .160  .160  .160  .320  0  0

RonCey 6  21  2  6  0  0  1  4  3  3  .286  .375  .429  .804  0  0
DLopes 6  26  7  8  0  0  3  7  2  1  .308  .357  .654  1.011  2  0
RSmith 6  25  3  5  0  0  1  5  2  6  .200  .259  .320  .579  0  1

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV CG  IP  H  ER BB  SO  WHIP
RGuidry 1  1  1.00  1  0  0  1  9.0  8  1  7  4  1.667  

BHooton 2  2  6.48  1  1  0  0  8.1  13  6  3  6  1.920  

Lopes may have had his best 10 game stretch of the year. Overall line of .341/.369/.750/1.119 Cey was also very good.

Guidry was phenomenal despite more walks than strikeouts. He had a good game 163 also.

Good series for Amos Otis and George Brett but it wasn't enough.

Hooton was awful as was Reggie Smith.

Lopes was charged with three postseason errors. Dodger gloves were one of the reasons the Yankees won the series.

Well, Lopes made one error in the WS; it was in a game LA won 11 to 5, much of which was Davey driving in 5 runs from the leadoff spot. It wasn't Lopes who was in any way responsible for the WS loss.
He did make one semi-important error in the one game LA lost in the NLCS.

I think Cey was the only Dodger without an error. I counted 3 for Russell, 1 or 2 for Smith, 1 for Garvey.

Finally getting around to this: a look at 1978 pitching.

Scoring dropped noticeably from 1977 in both leagues, for whatever reason. The NL went from 4.40 to 4.02 runs per 9 innings, and the AL from 4.56 to 4.25.

RA+ equivalent records:

Guidry: 23-7
Caldwell: 22-10
Eckersley: 19-10
Palmer: 21-12 (not adjusted for defensive support)
Matlack: 19-11
Goltz: 16-8
Gossage: 10-5; 14-7 with inherited runner adjustment
Stanley: 10-5; 14-8 with inherited runner adjustment

Neikro: 23-14 (OK hitter)
Knepper: 18-11 (bad hitter)
Blue: 17-11 (as hitter drew walks)
Reuschel: 16-11
Richard: 16-14
Tekulve: 10-5; 15-7 with inherited runner adjustment
Bair: 8-3; 11-4 with inherited runner adjustment
Garber: 10-3; 11-4 with inherited runner adjustment

Some stray comments:

It was an age of big-time park factors. Fenway versus Memorial Stadium (Baltimore). Wrigley versus the Astrodome. And so on. Garber kind of messes with the system by being traded midseason between teams with rather different parks.

Tekulve was quite good against inherited runners: 14 out of 69. Garber, by contrast, saw very few inherited runners: 7 out of 25.

I threw in J.R. Richard. He wasn't anywhere close to being among the league-leading pitchers (he was, after all, pitching in the Astrodome). But he was interesting. Fewest hits per inning allowed by a very large margin. Most strikeouts per inning by a very large margin. Just an extreme power pitcher.

That's a lot of virtual 20-game winners. It helps that some big inning totals were still being pitched, even if not at the level of the early 70's.

I might take Caldwell over Niekro. One thing holding Niekro down in my analysis, which is based on RA: Niekro allowed quite a few unearned runs. And I think that's all a part of being the pitcher he was. It counts.

I've been doing this for the MMP project from 1961 through 1978. Best single pitching seasons, by RA+ equivalent record, in that span:

Gibson 1968: 27-7 (adjust up for offense)
Carlton 1972: 28-10 (adjust up for offense)
Perry 1972: 27-11
Koufax 1966: 26-10 (adjust down for offense)
Seaver 1971: 24-10 (adjust up for offense)
Guidry 1978: 23-7
Chance 1964: 23-7 (adjust down for offense)
Blue 1971: 25-10 (slightly down for offense)
Koufax 1963: 25-10 (adjust down for offense)

Parker has the better defensive reputation overall- thanks in large part to his great arm- and actually won a Gold Glove in '78 but Rice had the better year fielding. This is the point at which Parker's range and accuracy have started to decline, even if the Gold Glove voters haven't noticed yet.

Parker had the "tools' to be a good/great fielder but was very erratic, sometimes the MSM decides that such players are as good as their tools (Parker) and the guy gets pegged with a good glove rep that last awhile, or the MSM decides that some are poor fielders irrespective of their tools (Strawberry).

If there's a dime's difference between Parker's dee and Starwberry's it's probably in Straw's favor, but Parker won several GGs, was in the discussion several other times, and Straw never sniffed one.

The MOST MERITORIOUS PLAYER for 1978 is clearly Gator. I watched about 15-20 of his starts that year (and I was a Mets fan)-
I had never before or since seen starter who appeared as consistently unhittable (and I saw most of Doc's 1985)-
he was a diminutive guy, late bloomer, and pretty much lost his velocity after that year (but remained a good pitcher for the better part of a decade).

I wonder how many IP Niekro would have had if he had been on a god tgeam, with more late-inning leads, and an established closer in the pen? I suspect fewer! Just like Rose had more PA inthe 70s because he led off for the Machine (Win Shares adjusts for the Rose-issue).

Parker had the "tools' to be a good/great fielder but was very erratic

One reason Parker had as many assists (and errors) as he did was that people ran on him, good arm or no.

Back when Retrosheet first released PBP data for Parker's career I took a look at runner advancement against outfielders. Parker threw out a good percentage, to be sure, but there were also a lot of extra bases taken against him; he rated in the bottom half, if memory serves, among right fielders. There's a contrast with Jesse Barfield, who not only threw out a lot of guys but gave up relatively few extra bases.

-- MWE

Niekro's innings 7-9 splits are pretty strong in 1978. The team was most likely making the right decision keeping him in the game.

Not disputing that at all, DL; just saying that if we state "he would have won more games with the ____s" (run support), we shoud also consider that he would likely IMHO have had fewer IPs with the _____s before concluding such. It's a bit like an RBI guy for a poor team; we pontificate that he would have driven in more for a good team (more baserunners), but we sometimes foregt he may have batted 6th instead of cleanup on that good team!

1-Ron Guidry
2-Jim Rice
3-Dave Parker
4-Phil Niekro
5-Mike Caldwell
6-Amos Otis
7-Mike Schmidt
8-Jack Clark
9-Gary Carter
10-Dennis Eckersley
11-Doug Decinces
12-Vida Blue
13-Graig Nettles

I ranked the players based on several factors, including their WAR numbers, their overall stats, and my vivid memories of that season. I turned 21 years old that year, went to many games, including every post season game at Yankee Stadium that year. Nettles edged out many others for the last spot for being the unsung hero of the world series that year. I thought that Guidry was more valuable than Rice that year, and the modern metrics bear that out.

Thanks for the explanation.

I certainly intend to vote, although for some odd reason I can't use P-I over at BB-Ref, and can't figure out why, either. But with or without that tool, I will vote. The only question I have is whether, since I did not participate in the 2012 election, I have to post up a preliminary here, or is my vote from 1977 enough? - Brock Hanke

77 is okay.

I had raved about 1977 music on that thread... but 1978 is even better.
No doubt this list would change somewhat if I were to try it another time... but here goes:
1- BUZZCOCKS- Another Music In A Different Kitchen (their 1st album and still my favorite. Kudos to them, though, as I've really enjoyed their most 2 recent albums)
2- STRANGLERS- Black and White (their 3rd album... and my favorite of theirs. In a real battle for the top spot)
3- JAM- All Mod Cons (I prefer their next album Setting Sons... but this one is damn good)
4- ADVERTS- Crossing The Red Sea With The Adverts (Their 1st, and my favorite, but I think their 2nd album is underrated)
5- BUZZCOCKS- Love Bites
6- SAINTS- Eternally Yours
7- WIRE- Chairs Missing
8- REZILLOS- Can't Stand The Rezillos
9- ELVIS COSTELLO- This Year's Model
10-XTC- Go2
11-XTC- White Music
12-CLASH- Give 'Em Enough Rope
13-GENERATION X- Generation X

Hey, all. I've been lurking in the MMP threads for a while, but (assuming we don't drop below the critical mass needed to continue the elections) I think I want to start voting. Like many of you, my starting point would be an aggregation of ueberstats, but I would take a weighted average (so e.g. bpWARP would be counted somewhat less because the methodology is less transparent and seemingly gives a disproportionate number of peculiar results), and I would not include Win Shares-type metrics. However, I think WAR has certain limitations in assessing single-season greatness, so I'm considering the following adjustments and would appreciate any thoughts you all have on them.

Fielding
I agree with the skepticism of outlying single-season defensive figures, but I would prefer a more systematic approach to handling them, and I don't think that regressing them to the mean is necessarily the best way. My idea is to do a LOESS regression on the player's defensive numbers over the course of his career, so that if the player has an outlying year, it's still partially counted, but is partially regressed to the norms of his surrounding seasons. (I know the sample size will be too small for LOESS to be a rigorously correct method, but it should be good enough for our purposes.) To take a simplified example, say a player's aggregate defensive numbers over a seven-year period were 7, 0, 5, 15, -3, 8, 2. After smoothing, this might look more like 5, 3, 6, 9, 3, 5, 4. The question, of course, would be how high to set the smoothing parameter - that is, how much of the year-to-year variability do we want to consider to be noise and how much do we want to consider to be signal?

There's another aspect I'm thinking about. MGL has written that his single-season UZR figures are substantially regressed to the mean in order to remove some of the unnecessary noise. My question is, do other defensive metrics do the same thing, or do they report their raw output in each season? If they all do what UZR does, then a player's "career UZR" is quite misleading. As the sample size increases, statistical inference dictates that we should have more confidence in the raw outputs and should remove much of the regression that was baked into the single-season numbers. A player who averages -10 UZR per season over a 15-year career would have a -150 career UZR listed on his player page, but surely something like -200 or -250 (yikes!) would be a better representation of how UZR sees his fielding. If other defensive systems do this as well, it would have some impact on how I'd assess single-season defense, as I'd multiply the season-by-season numbers by a scaling factor. There are still some big question marks, though, such as exactly how much regression to undo (after all, I don't have access to the inner machinery of these statistics, so I don't know how much of this regression they incorporate, if they do at all). I also don't know how I would adjust negative single-season figures for players who were well above zero for their career, and vice versa.

Pitching
Over single seasons (but not over a career), and increasingly so as we approach the '90s and '00s, I think there's some value in factoring in FIP, because it's undoubtedly true that chance can cause fielders to perform somewhat better behind one pitcher than behind another. But if I wanted to be as rigorous as possible about incorporating it, I would want to look at RA-FIP over the pitcher's career after adjusting for average quality of fielding support. As with fielding, I would perform a LOESS-type procedure to try to partially smooth out the curve; I would prefer this over simply using career RA-FIP, since this aspect of a pitcher's talent can definitely change over time. Again, though, the question would be exactly how much faith to put in single-season RA-FIP. I think I'd lean towards a high amount of faith, giving the pitcher most of the credit for his low BABIP/high LOB%.

Also, I'm not at all sure how to incorporate this into win values, but I would want to try to make an adjustment for a pitcher's start-by-start distribution of runs allowed. If two pitchers have comparable RA and IP numbers, but one packs an unusually high number of his runs allowed into 8 R, 2.2 IP stinkers, then that guy should be given a boost because it means he had more of the games with 0/1/2 runs allowed that a team will usually win. If any of you have suggestions on how to quantify and incorporate this into WAR, I would greatly appreciate it.

Hitting
I'm a huge fan of RE24 as opposed to wRAA or the like. I think contextual/situational hitting should be extremely important in assessing single-season value, because it has a clear effect on the team's run-scoring. I don't like using win probability because it introduces too many absurdities. For instance, a batter who hits a three-run homer in the second inning but then strikes out with runners on second and third in a tie game in the ninth will have a negative WPA despite having a clearly positive effect on his team's chances of winning the game. RE24, by contrast, accounts for the huge difference in hitting home runs with runners on base versus with the bases empty, or between striking out with a runner on third and one out versus striking out with nobody on. I know that a big caveat of RE24 is that it will be biased towards hitters who get more opportunities, but I'm unsure about exactly what the scale of this problem is. I guess I'd also have to do my own park adjustment if I wanted to substitute it for wRAA (or weight it half-and-half; I'm not sure if it should fully replace the context-neutral numbers), and that might be a pain in the ass. I'd also like to solicit opinions on WPA/LI - what are its advantages and disadvantages as compared to RE24?


Anyway, this might all be more complicated than it needs to be, but I think there's a pretty good argument for making each of these adjustments in determining MMPs. It might be above my pay grade with respect to handling large amounts of data, but if I failed to figure out how to work out the numbers precisely, I'd probably try to eyeball it. As long as I'm careful about it, I think that's better than nothing, especially since aggregated WAR would still comprise the vast bulk of my assessments. Again, though, criticism and suggestions would be very welcome.

I think it's a valid approach but I'm skeptical about regressing too much to surrounding years. Players can have outlier fielding years too and we're trying to evaluate just the current season. But then again you say UZR is already regressed.

I had raved about 1977 music on that thread... but 1978 is even better.
No doubt this list would change somewhat if I were to try it another time... but here goes:
1- BUZZCOCKS- Another Music In A Different Kitchen (their 1st album and still my favorite. Kudos to them, though, as I've really enjoyed their most 2 recent albums)
2- STRANGLERS- Black and White (their 3rd album... and my favorite of theirs. In a real battle for the top spot)
3- JAM- All Mod Cons (I prefer their next album Setting Sons... but this one is damn good)
4- ADVERTS- Crossing The Red Sea With The Adverts (Their 1st, and my favorite, but I think their 2nd album is underrated)
5- BUZZCOCKS- Love Bites
6- SAINTS- Eternally Yours
7- WIRE- Chairs Missing
8- REZILLOS- Can't Stand The Rezillos
9- ELVIS COSTELLO- This Year's Model
10-XTC- Go2
11-XTC- White Music
12-CLASH- Give 'Em Enough Rope
13-GENERATION X- Generation X

Apparently you don't like much black music.

Here's the best of 1978:

I Will Survive Gloria Gaynor
One Nation Under a Groove Funkadelic
Le Freak Chic
YMCA Village People
September Earth, Wind & Fire
Last Dance Donna Summer
Knock On Wood Amii Stewart
You Make Me Feel (Mighty Real) Sylvester
Get Off Foxy
On Broadway George Benson
You and I Rick James
Close the Door Teddy Pendergrass
Shake Your Body (Down To the Ground) Jacksons
I'm Every Woman Chaka Khan
Shout Otis Day & the Knights
Shake Your Groove Thing Peaches & Herb
Heaven Knows Donna Summer
Macho Man Village People

I understand the reason for considering regressing fielding ##s, but you would need to piece out the actual plays (errors, OF assists) from the presumed range numbers.

BTW, does any fielding system account for differences in infield errors on surfaces? When half of MLB was on turf, it seemed some infields begged for lots of errors from SS and 3Bmen, and others not.

Ilieam and SavoyBG -

MAN, do you have different tastes in music. This is not a quality issue, but simple taste. Mine is closer to Ilieam's, but this is still the period when I wasn't listening to much new music, still hung over from disco. I will, however, admit to a SERIOUS fondness for early Buzzcocks, and The Clash was the first punk band I ever liked. My return to current music started in 1981, when I saw a movie called "Urgh! A Music War" which I recommend to everyone every chance I get. However, to give you an idea of how quick the turnover was at the time, Ilieam's list fits Urgh!s style much more than Savoy's does, but the only band from his list that is actually in the movie is XTC. All the other Urgh! bands got going in the two years of 1979 and 1980.

One of the reasons that I can tell this is a taste list is that I just barely remember some of Savoy's bands' names, and some of them ("Peaches and Herb") I actively disliked, where there is no band on Ilieam's list that I dislike. But still, there is NO doubting Parliament/Funkadelic (Ooo! Savoy! Chance to ask a question I've never gotten an answer about - I've heard that George Clinton actually got his start as a doo-wop artist with a band called "The Parliaments" and that all the wonderful funk stuff just sort of evolved from that doo-wop start. You might know if this is true....). I also liked Village People and Chaka Khan, and I do remember fondly Otis Day's cover of Shout (I think the original is the Isely Brothers, although there is a song of the same name by Ernie Mareska, who was Dion and the Belmonts' songwriter). But, in general, I don't much like soul, and I love hard rock. That's just taste, not quality. Based on your lists, I would say that both of you have good taste within your parameters. - Brock Hanke

Brock, I wasn't listing the music according to my personal taste. I was just offended by the lack of any black music on Ileam's list. Typical white guy who doesn't even realize that black music exists.

Actually I don't even like much of the music from the 1970s. My favorite stuff is from 1951-1958. My favorite artist is Fats Domino.

Here's my own list of favorites from 1978.

MY TOP 35 RECORDINGS FROM 1978
1 ¦ Who Do You Love ¦ George Thorogood
2 ¦ Move It On Over ¦ George Thorogood
3 ¦ Pump It Up ¦ Elvis Costello
4 ¦ Heart Of Glass ¦ Blondie
5 ¦ That Same Thing ¦ George Thorogood
6 ¦ I Love The Nightlife ¦ Alicia Bridges
7 ¦ Badlands ¦ Bruce Springsteen
8 ¦ I Wanna Be Sedated ¦ Ramones
9 ¦ Blondes Have More Fun ¦ Rod Stewart
10 ¦ I Will Survive ¦ Gloria Gaynor
11 ¦ Hey Bartender ¦ Blues Brothers
12 ¦ Shout ¦ Otis Day & Knights
13 ¦ So Much Trouble ¦ George Thorogood
14 ¦ Trouble Boys ¦ Dave Edmunds
15 ¦ Old Time Rock And Roll ¦ Bob Seger
16 ¦ Werewolves Of London ¦ Warren Zevon
17 ¦ Far Away Eyes ¦ Rolling Stones
18 ¦ YMCA ¦ Village People
19 ¦ The Way I Walk ¦ Robert Gordon
20 ¦ Time Passages ¦ Al Stewart
21 ¦ Miss You ¦ Rolling Stones
22 ¦ Five Days, Five Days ¦ Robert Gordon
23 ¦ Back In The U.S.A. ¦ Linda Ronstadt
24 ¦ I'm In Love Again ¦ Carl Perkins
25 ¦ Rock Lobster ¦ B-52s
26 ¦ It's A Heartache ¦ Bonnie Tyler
27 ¦ Beast Of Burden ¦ Rolling Stones
28 ¦ Radio Radio ¦ Elvis Costello
29 ¦ Le Freak ¦ Chic
30 ¦ Funky But Chic ¦ David Johansen
31 ¦ My Best Friend's Girl ¦ Cars
32 ¦ One Way Or Another ¦ Blondie
33 ¦ Shama Lama Ding Dong ¦ Otis Day & Knights
34 ¦ Hit Me With Your Rhythm Stick ¦ Ian Dury & Blockheads
35 ¦ Warm Leatherette ¦ The Normal

And yes, George Clinton started out in a doo wop group called the Parliaments. They came out of Plainfield, NJ. One of the members of his group (Gary Shider) was the brother of a college friend of mine, who also sings. Gary stayed with them all through the funk years and was inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall Of Fame with the band. He died a few years ago.

SavoyBG: Geez, dude, take it easy! I'm a huge fan of late 70s punk rock. I'm a bit puzzled that you're offended by "the lack of any black music" on my list.
And I especially appreciate the insulting tone of your comments. Thanks for the civility.

Typical white guy who doesn't even realize that black music exists.

Liking punk more than disco doesn't make you a racist. I don't really like the tone either.