But among middle infielders of that era, the opposite pattern is apparent. There are a number “slugging middle infielders” of that era whose careers tailed off very suddenly.

Like who? I feel like he's invoking Edgardo Alfonzo and (of course) Nomar here, but Nomar isn't particularly unusual, and didn't Alfonzo have a chronic back problem? John Valentin? He was always just kind of old and hurt. Jose Vidro, maybe? Jose Valentin and Ray Durham played for forever.

Roberto Alomar is one.

Though it doesn't fit this description, Randy Velarde's career arc was on the unusual side.

Isn't Alomar's decline pretty typical for a second baseman?

Marcus Giles fits the description. Bret Boone and Mark Loretta also had oddly shaped careers. Arguably the 3 biggest fluke or spike-anomaly seasons by 2Bmen happened between 1999 and 2003 -- Velarde '99, Boone '01, and Giles '03.

Bret Boone and Rich Aurilia seem to fit the description. Seems a little too handy. Don't MI decline quickly more often anyway?

Coke to Matt.

I was going to say Ray Durham fit the mold until I looked and he didn't really. He was a solid ballplayer until about 2006. Why didn't anyone give him a contract after he left the Brewers?

Damion Easley, Kevin Elster, Jay Bell, Mark Bellhorn, and Bill Hall all had kinda weird career spikes.

I was going to say Ray Durham fit the mold until I looked and he didn't really. He was a solid ballplayer until about 2006. Why didn't anyone give him a contract after he left the Brewers?

IIRC, it was a Jermaine Dye situation where he only wanted to play on a contract on his terms, and when no one gave him what he wanted, he decided to just sit it out.

Anyone who could win a drinking contest against Dick Allen was a very formidable drinker. Jimmy Ray was the man for that task.

Willie Mays took Hart under his wing. (Mays never drank at all.) Mays provided Hart with a single bottle of whiskey per week. One bottle, free of charge, but that was it. Hart mostly, kind of, complied.

The revelation of Hart's drinking and its potential effect on his playing ability is really nothing new. Steve Treder, I, and others have long talked about it.

Take a look at Hart's 1974 Topps card, which was his last. He was probably about 34 at that time, but he looked like he was 44.

Sam Regalado (nephew of Rudy Regalado) told me of a time he encountered Jimmy Ray, in the 1990s. He was sitting in the back room of a rural honky-tonk. Sam said Jimmy Ray must have weighed 300 pounds.

Yet he survives to this day. You go, Jimmy Ray Hart.

one of the chief effects of steroids was to PROLONG player’s careers. Outfielders and first basemen who used steroids effectively continued to IMPROVE after the age at which they would ordinarily be in decline.

Cueing Albert Belle.

Take a look at Hart's 1974 Topps card, which was his last. He was probably about 34 at that time, but he looked like he was 44.

http://1974topps-pennantfever.blogspot.com/2011/05/159-jim-ray-hart.html?m=0

Bret Boone and Rich Aurilia seem to fit the description. Seems a little too handy. Don't MI decline quickly more often anyway?

Bret Boone was the absolute first name I thought of. He always had a decent amount of power, but his age-32 and age-34 seasons were tremendous. Then at 35 he was just OK, at 36 he sucked, and at 37 he was out of baseball. It was a rather swift and dramatic decline, but he was at the age where 2B tend to decline anyway.

Rich Aurilia played with Barry Bonds and had one fluke HR season in the middle of his career, but if you take that one out, his career looks totally normal, with a peak at 27-28 then a gradual decline in effectiveness and/or playing time. He did have a nice year at age 34, but part of that was due to being in a platoon-type role and facing a higher percentage of lefties.

Though it doesn't fit this description, Randy Velarde's career arc was on the unusual side.

Velarde was in the Mitchell Report. But you're right, he played forever and had "peaks" all over the place.

The problem here is that Bill and the rest of us are projecting. Haven't players had weird career arcs with unusually aged peaks since forever? Haven't infielders peaked younger and aged out earlier than outfielders since the beginning of time? I hear catchers don't thrive into their 40s either (except Fisk).

Alomar's decline at age 34 isn't at all unusual or "early." Yeah, he has his career year at 33, but so what?

Boone didn't decline early. Sure, maybe he and many of the others had a "boost", but it doesn't support Bill's hypothesis when you're "just ok" at age 35. Aurilia doesn't fit the pattern.

Garry Templeton? - oh no, he played earlier (and peaked very young).

Marcus Giles?

Do two (Giles and Baerga) make a pattern? Is it unusual for this era?

On the other side, I bet most outfielders are more Brady Anderson (1 or 2 out of nowhere seasons) than Barry Bonds.

Test the hypothesis somehow. I doubt it holds up to scrutiny.

in mild defense of bill hall he agreed to play centerfield in 2007 to help the team get more bats in the lineup. after a very shaky start he had a very good june and his bat was coming around when he hurt himself on a fly ball in early july. he came back too soon and never let his ankle heal properly. hall's stance relied on his back anchor foot and its believed permanently ruined his swing as hall became all arms at the plate with no power coming from his base. hall was certainly a mess at the plate for the remainder of his brewer career. it is also true in his 35 homer season almost half of his homers barely made it over the fence so that was a fluke season by any measure. but i think sans injury and not falling into yost's doghouse hall could have been an above average hitter for a longer period.

didn't happen. but i don't think peds were a factor. more of the usual bad luck common to athletes careers

But what about his other claim?

Bonds -- lasted forever
Palmeiro -- lasted forever
McGwire -- last full season at 35, last at 37
Manny -- 199 games (plus 50 suspended) after 36
Giambi -- last Giambi season at 35, last full at 37
Sheffield -- 386 games, 109 OPS+ after 36

onto the alleged crew:

Sosa -- last full at 35, last good at 34, done at 36, back at 38
Bagwell -- possible decline beginning at 35, done at 37, injured

allegedly clean:

Edgar -- one of the greatest post-30 careers of all-time
Thome -- last full at 38, 383 games, 136 OPS+ after 37


OPS+ leaders, 1995-2012, aged 37+, 50% at 1B/LF/RF, min 1000 PA

Bonds
Edgar -- no taint (139 OPS+)
Gwynn -- no taint
Alou -- no taint
Thome -- no taint
Thomas -- no taint
Galarraga -- dude had cancer, who cares what he did
McGriff -- no taint
Palmeiro
Chili Davis -- no taint
Baines -- no taint
Giambi
Ibanez -- well that one blogger slammed him and everybody got very angry with him

Everybody below that is under a 110 OPS+.

Same parameters, 1975-1993

Stargell 140 OPS+
Downing
Winfield
Evans
Evans
Carty
McRae
Brett
Yaz
Carew
McCovey 110 OPS+

So the first group is 12 plus Bonds, this group is 11. The silly group did hit somewhat better but the former group had more high PA guys -- Yaz at 3600, Da Evans over 3100, 4 more guys in the 2200-2400 range.

This is at least the second time James has made this claim and he's provided no backing for it. If there's evidence of it, it's not easy to find.

From 95-12, there were 13 2B/SS/3B (50%) with 1000+ PA from 37 on; from 75-93 it was 9.

Jim Ray Hart was seriously beaned early in his MLB career.

One second baseman I can think of had 43 home runs, out of nowhere, at age 30, then hit just 15 the next year, and was a part time player for a few more years before retiring at 35.
Then there's that slugging shortstop who hit 39 HR at 28, 30 HR at 29, 17 HR at 30, and then no more than 7 in any season.
But Davey Johnson and Vern Stephens were not named in the Mitchell Report.

Petrocelli is another one - 157 HR through age 28, only 53 thereafter.

well vern stephens was a hard core drinker.

Take a look at Hart's 1974 Topps card, which was his last. He was probably about 34 at that time, but he looked like he was 44.

I had no idea Jim Ray Hart was black.

Much more intersting question, who is the finest drinker among active players?

He admitted that in later years, he was much more interested in collecting his paycheck for drinking money than in playing the game, and often came to the park hung over or drunk.”

Sure, but he had open access to all the greenies a swingin' third baseman on the make could ever hope for, so what's the big deal?

FWIW, Carlos Baerga was said to party pretty hard during his Cleveland days. I wouldn't jump to steroids and then try to draw some overarching conclusion about the effects on middle infielders.

"I had no idea Jim Ray Hart was black"

Neither did I until you posted this. Guys named Jimmy Ray found drinking heavily in a honky tonk, I'm assuming a white man with a crimson hue to the neck.

It does not help me that he shares a name with the mouth of the south.

Harlond Clift is similar to Hart, and despite having the nickname "Darkie", he wasn't black. He was from Oklahoma, so he probably had some Native American blood. He hit 143 of his 178 homers by age 27.

FWIW, Carlos Baerga was said to party pretty hard during his Cleveland days. I wouldn't jump to steroids and then try to draw some overarching conclusion about the effects on middle infielders.

Right. Didn't he just get kinda fat? I don't think there was any real mystery.

Take a look at Hart's 1974 Topps card, which was his last. He was probably about 34 at that time, but he looked like he was 44.

I had no idea Jim Ray Hart was black.

One of the great benefits of recently collecting almost all the past Angels baseball cards was to discover the skin pigment and drunk-bloat of pre-'73 players.

One second baseman I can think of had 43 home runs, out of nowhere, at age 30, then hit just 15 the next year, and was a part time player for a few more years before retiring at 35. Then there's that slugging shortstop who hit 39 HR at 28, 30 HR at 29, 17 HR at 30, and then no more than 7 in any season.
But Davey Johnson and Vern Stephens were not named in the Mitchell Report.

It's important to take note of offensive spike years -- 1950, 1970, 1977, 1986, 1994, 2000, and so on -- when trying to untangle weird career spikes. I suspect (though maybe only Steve Treder has the data handy) that players who peaked at 26-27 during offensive spike years (particularly those, like '70 & '77 & '86, that were surrounded by comparative pitchers' eras) had unusually short and weird-looking careers, in part because they were perceived as disappointments when their counting stats couldn't keep up. It's also possible, of course, that league-wide spike years disproportionately favored certain skill sets that then reverted to valuelessness later.

I'm surprised to see 1986 on that list. I thought 1987 was a spike year.

I'm surprised to see 1986 on that list. I thought 1987 was a spike year.

I stand corrected, sorry. 1986 was the first halfway offensive season since '79, but '87 was the crazy spike.

Yeah, #30. If Bill James noted that outfielders who get fat (like Tony Gwynn, Lonnie Smith, etc.) tend to get away with longer careers than middle infielders who get fat (Baerga, etc.), it would have felt less controversial, though still anecdotal.

On the other hand, Andruw Jones.

Right. Didn't he just get kinda fat? I don't think there was any real mystery.

I was going to say "See Andruw Jones"...the post 35 said the same thing.

I think that one of the thing about increased conditioning is that it should lead to fewer cliff dives (relative to the past) but it wouldn't eliminate them. Heck, I would probably listen to an argument that improved conditioning is the largest factor in players performing well in their post 32 ages, more so than even rumors of roids(or prove of roids in some cases)

Mind you, I don't think it would make you Barry Bonds or anything, but improved conditioning could legitimately explain players like Thome, Chipper, Palmiero, Torii Hunter, Edmonds, etc.

Harlond Clift was impacted by the deadening of the ball that occurred during WWII, and then in 1944 he contracted testicular mumps and followed that with a season-ending injury when he was thrown from a horse. In 1945 he suffered a concussion after being hit in the head by a pitch in BP.

-- MWE

Foxx. Big drinker. Hack Wilson: "a high ball hitter on and off the field" (love that one).

And the 1960's and onward combo of amps to be up for the game and booze to wind down, get some sleep aint gonna help the aging curve.
You'd have to think, anyway.

Count me on the list of people who have been mispronouncing Honus Wagner's name this whole time.

I would have been more likely to assume it was the alst name that was wrong ('Vogner') than the first ('Hawness').

testicular mumps

*prolonged wince*

Harlond Clift was impacted by the deadening of the ball that occurred during WWII, and then in 1944 he contracted testicular mumps and followed that with a season-ending injury when he was thrown from a horse. In 1945 he suffered a concussion after being hit in the head by a pitch in BP.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

testicular mumps

Very underrated jazz musician.

Mumps actually does affect the testicles in a number of cases.

testicular mumps

Very underrated jazz musician.

Testicular Mumps is my Clayton Brothers cover band!

-- MWE

Yeah, #30. If Bill James noted that outfielders who get fat (like Tony Gwynn, Lonnie Smith, etc.) tend to get away with longer careers than middle infielders who get fat (Baerga, etc.), it would have felt less controversial, though still anecdotal.

On the other hand, Andruw Jones.

Not so sure Jones is the example you're looking for. He may have declined at a young age, but he still had a long career. He was a rookie at 19 and a full time player at 20. In the 11 seasons from age 20 to age 30 he averaged 157 games played and 651 PA's, about 95% of them in CF, which is the most demanding OF position. The list of guys who played more games than Jones and were predominantly CF is very short.

Juan Samuel?

"I had no idea Jim Ray Hart was black"

Neither did I until you posted this. Guys named Jimmy Ray found drinking heavily in a honky tonk, I'm assuming a white man with a crimson hue to the neck.

So, it's not just me! Phew!

Much more intersting question, who is the finest drinker among active players?

Miggy Cabrera?

Not active, but Wade Boggs once drank 57 beers on a transcontinental flight.

Boggs and Andre the Giant would have made quite a team.

Much more intersting question, who is the finest drinker among active players?



Miggy Cabrera?

Right... all indications seem to me that the interesting question is really a race for the #2 slot behind Miggy.

Foxx. Big drinker. Hack Wilson: "a high ball hitter on and off the field" (love that one).

I've read a ton of rather interesting (he's been dead 65 years - is it OK to read them more as legend than refer to them perhaps more properly as sad/tragic?) stories about Wilson... dousing him in a tub of ice water to sober him up before games, his minder trying to keep up with him after games, etc.

Hack's on the all-time drinking team for sure - whether you want to create the team based on great drinkers who could play a little baseball or great baseball players who drank a lot... doesn't matter how you criteria it, hard for me to see how he's not somewhere in the OF.