Wednesday, December 12, 2012
2013 Results: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza and Biggio are elected to the Hall of Merit!
(bbtf)
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio have been elected to the Hall of Merit!
The timing for our first year electing 4 candidates could not have worked out better, since class of 2013 is the strongest in terms of electees that we’ve ever had. The top of the 1934 ballot included Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Eddie Collins, Pop Lloyd, Smokey Joe Williams and Cristobal Torriente, but only 2 were elected.
Bonds and Clemens were each unanimous at 1 and 2. I believe that’s the first ...
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1 2 >Bagwell, Larkin, Walker, Edgar, Trammell, Raines, McGwire, Morris.
And, just for fun, Lima. (Yes, I know I'm a sick b@stard.)
Larkin, Raines, Trammell, McGwire, Palmeiro, Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, Dale Murphy, Bernie Williams
Tim Raines is a good player, but, sorry, I don't see the mystic attraction that seems to drive so many here. There are many average fielders with 123 OPS+ careers. Are they all supposed to go in?
Well, if they can all steal 808 bases at an 85% success rate, then yeah, sure.
Tim Raines > Tim Tebow.
I'm starting to have my doubts. I'm nearly convinced Tebow really is Jesus Christ.
Edited to remove anti-Christian connotation.
He may be the best player not yet elected (ignore banned and not yet eligible players) in terms of "best player in baseball" candidacy for about 5 years.
I know what. Let's put on a show.
No, just a few.
BB-REF PI
From 1901 to 2011, Played 50% of games at LF or RF, (118<=OPS+<=128 and At least 7000 plate appearances), sorted by WAR
Rk Player WAR/pos OPS+ PA
1. Rickey Henderson 113.1 127 13346
2. Tim Raines 64.6 123 10359
3. Goose Goslin 63.0 128 9822
4. Dwight Evans 61.8 127 10569
5. Sammy Sosa 59.7 128 9896
6. Andre Dawson 57.0 119 10769
7. Enos Slaughter 54.1 124 9084
8. Jose Cruz 52.2 120 8931
9. Kiki Cuyler 49.6 125 8098
10 Luis Gonzalez 46.3 118 10531
11 Rusty Staub 45.2 124 11229
12 Dixie Walker 45.1 120 7666
13 Jimmy Sheckard 44.6 121 7657
14 Roy White 44.5 121 7735
15 Heinie Manush 44.1 121 8416
16 Augie Galan 44.0 122 7003
17 Bobby Veach 43.6 127 7557
18 George Foster 42.5 126 7812
19 Jim Rice 41.5 128 9058
20 Moises Alou 38.2 128 7913
21 Dave Parker 37.8 121 10184
22 Tim Salmon 37.6 128 7039
23 Paul O'Neill 35.6 120 8329
24 Magglio Ordonez 34.6 125 7742
25 Ken Griffey 31.9 118 8048
26 Shawn Green 29.4 120 7962
27 Willie Horton 24.3 120 8052
Lou Brock: 3,833 times on base over 11235 PA - in HOF
Tony Gwynn: 3,955 times on base over 10232 PA - in HOF
Tim Raines: 3,977 times on base over 10359 PA - ???
Mix in a comment about stolen bases vs caught stealing (Raines stands above those two by a good margin) and you have a winning argument with many HOF voters I suspect and you never had to mention WAR or the like.
This is basically right, plus Raines's runs scored.
Dale Stephenson has Raines with the 8th best peak among left fielders (with Musial counted as a right fielder), and with the 6th most value offensive outside his peak (nobody behind him in peak value added more offensive value outside their peak). Now Dale used a linear weights structure so we're talking about offensive wins above average, but I don't think that's a bad way to look at Hall of fame corner outfielders. Raines may drop a tad in a WAR structure, but I doubt it'd change the essential point.
Does WAR help him more when it comes to making comparisons?
1) No milestones.
2) Short 5-year Peak.
3) Only one season greater than 5 WAR outside of that peak.
4) No seasons greater than 5 oWAR past age of 27.
5) Looks like he was reduced to part time status by age 32.
6) Only one season of more than 500 plate appearances after age 32.
7) Didn't have a WAR season greater than 2 after age 33.
I know that he was hurt by the strike seasons of 1981 & 1994, but he still seems like a marginal case. Hall of Famers don't usually slip into part time status as early as Raines unless they did something really impressive during their peak. Raines wasn't that good. He could just as easily be kept out as let in.
You should really use wRC+, which has the correct linear weights values. Raines is at 134 career wRC+.
And the thing is, which no one seems to ever ask themselves, is if you let this guy in, who then can't you then keep out (if you're a thinker with integrity, that is)?
Seriously, if the Broncos win the Super Bowl I'm probably going to have put aside my agnoticism and start going to the local evangelical church.
By OPS+, Raines ranks 267th all time, alongside Joe Adcock, Cesar Cedeño, Andre Ethier, and Ted Klusewski, and a whole bunch of players who were good, but not truly outstanding. Few players within two or three OPS+ are in the HOF. By WAR (BBRef), however, Raines ranks 117th, with Ozzie Smith. The overwhelming majority of players with more WAR, and even as much as 5-10 fewer WAR, are in the HOF.
I guess I don't understand why this is an issue. Six seasons of 5+ WAR, with 3 at 6+ is pretty good. I would guess that just about every player with that claim is a deserving HOFer.
*EDIT*
Outfielders with 6 seasons of 5+ WAR:
Ichiro Suzuki
Carlos Beltran
Vladimir Guerrero
Kenny Lofton
Tim Raines
Dale Murphy
Bobby Bonds
Minnie Minoso
Duke Snider
Charlie Keller
Goose Goslin
Sam Crawford
Admittedly, not as strong as I'd thought. Still, I think I'd vote for them all (I've supported Murphy in the BTF vote every year.)
I guess not everyone cares as little about career accumulation as I do.
I don't know if I'll go that far, but I can certainly see a Jesus Fish on my refrigerator or something. It really is a hell of a story.
And the thing is, which no one seems to ever ask themselves, is if you let this guy in, who then can't you then keep out (if you're a thinker with integrity, that is)?
Ridiculous. Super ####### ridiculous.
The same guys you're keeping out now. Tim was a better baseball player than virtually all of them, so his inclusion does nothing to lower the bar.
That's an understatement. No player in baseball has been more hurt by labor-management issues than Rock. He lost time from his great 1981, lost more in 1994-95 (which make the tail end of his career look more part-timey than it really was), and lost a month out of a potential MVP season in 1987 due to collusion.
That actually understates the value of Raines' base stealing. Tom Ruane looked at (among other things) base stealing taking the base/out situation into account. Raines ran with disproportionate frequency in high leverage situations. Tom also gets Raines as the 5th best player in the Retrosheet era in terms of value not captured by the counter stats.
And as I've pointed out, there's reason to think the defensive metrics underrate Raines a little bit in that the years we have DA information for, he was the best left fielder in terms of saving extra bases on plays not made.
And that's before considering that conventional metrics subtly underrate Raines because his offensive skills are unusually well suited to the leadoff role. Put it all together and even the better metrics underrate Raines by a fair bit.
Now, we'll note that the OPS+ restriction means that Larry Walker isn't on that list because Walker, y'know, actually hit like a corner OF with a career 140 OPS+. He would be #2 on that list with 67.3 WAR despite a much shorter career than Raines. He also adds 7 GG (or 95 rfield if you prefer) and an MVP.
He's more deserving than Raines or Edgar.
who else will have 800-plus steals?
Well, nobody. But Lofton with 600+ steals will be one and done. Bonds has 500+ steals. Ichiro will probably pass 500. Damon, Abreu and Rollins will all be over 400.
Ichiro in particular is an issue for Raines -- could help him, could hurt him. But he'll probably be entering the ballot around the time that the steroid logjam might be clearing and Ichiro will go in, probably before Raines. That will either hurt Raines -- many voters might then see him as no better than the 4th best leadoff hitter of all time (Ichiro, Rickey, Brock) -- or it could possibly help similar to the way Eck's election helped Sutter and Gossage.
I still don't think we appreciate how big this mess is going to be. Even without steroid backlash, it would be tough to weave your way through these ballots.
2013: Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Sosa, Schilling, Biggio, Lofton (lucky to get a single vote), Wells (who normally would stick for a few years at least)
Just that ballot right there, in an environment where we're averaging fewer than 6 votes per ballot, is a challenge even if there were no steroid controversy. (Yes, votes per ballots would increase but probably not sufficiently) Anyway, in a normal environment, that's 6 HoFers with a case for a 7th, joining in one year.
2014: Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Kent, Mussina, Luis Gonzalez (a Bernie-esque candidate in a just world)
So that's at least 3 more and I think there are good cases for Kent and Mussina
2015: Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, Sheffield, Nomar, Delgado (2 more Bernie-esque candidates)
So 4 more HoFers in a normal environment
So even without a steroid "ban", you'd have at least 13 HoFers joining over 3 years. Given traditional patterns of voting, that would take 5-6 years to clear. Maybe more because Griffey adds to the 2016 ballot ... and Hoffman.
Under a normal scenario, I think Raines would make a big jump this year but then he'd slide back a bit and get stuck for 7 years. Going into the 2020 ballot, he'd probably be sitting around 45% with only 3 elections to get 30%. Unlikely.
Under a steroid backlog scenario -- I just don't see how it can happen. A potential 2016 ballot:
Griffey
Hoffman
Bonds
Clemens
Piazza
Sosa
Bagwell
Raines
Edgar
Walker
McGwire
McGriff
Palmeiro
Schilling
Smoltz
Sheffield
Bernie
Mussina
Kent
Nomar
Delgado
Gonzalez
That's assuming the election of Johnson, Pedro, Maddux, Glavine, Larkin, Thomas and Biggio for 2012-15. Can Raines even get to 45% on that ballot? Somebody like Walker will be lucky to make it to 5%.
1 Barry Bonds 94.1
2 Ken Griffey 75.5
3 Jeff Bagwell 65.1
4 Shoeless Joe Jackson 62.9
5 Dick Allen 61
6 Frank Thomas 60.9
7 Alan Trammell 59.2
8 Keith Hernandez 56.6
9 Buddy Bell 56.3
10 Sherry Magee 56.2
11 Tim Raines 54.8
12 Bobby Grich 53.3
13 Bobby Bonds 53.3
14 Jim Wynn 53
15 Mike Piazza 52.6
16 Sal Bando 52.5
17 Pete Rose 52
18 Joe Torre 51.2
19 Cesar Cedeno 50.2
20 Barry Larkin 50.1
21 Craig Biggio 50.1
So here we have
1: Guys not yet eligible
2: Guys who are banned
3: Guys who really vaporized after age 32
In many ways Trammel is very similar to Raines- very little after his age 32 season
"Consider Tim Raines. I'll wait. OK, done considering? Good. Did you elect him to the Hall of Fame? If not, consider the fact that someone does not have to be as good as Rickey Henderson to belong in the Hall of Fame. Now go back to the beginning. Repeat as necessary."
Get off the OPS+, wRC+ is the more accurate stat. In wRC+ the gap shrinks to 142 for Walker, 134 for Raines. And Raines has 10,359 PAs vs. only 8030 for Walker.
Walker just didn't play enough.
IN
1. Jeff Bagwell, 1B
2. Barry Larkin, SS
3. Mark McGwire, 1B
4. Tim Raines, OF
5. Alan Trammell, SS
6. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B
BORDER
Edgar Martinez, 3B/DH
Larry Walker, OF
OUT
Jeromy Burnitz, OF
Vinny Castilla, 3B
Juan Gonzalez, OF
Brian Jordan, OF
Javy Lopez, C
Don Mattingly, 1B
Fred McGriff, 1B
Jack Morris, RHP
Bill Mueller, 3B
Terry Mulholland, LHP
Dale Murphy, OF
Phil Nevin, 3B/1B
Brad Radke, RHP
Tim Salmon, OF
Ruben Sierra, OF
Lee Smith, RHP
Bernie Williams, OF
Tony Womack, 2B/SS
Eric Young, 2B
My issue with Larry Walker was his "Mr. Glass" career. Only one season of more than 143 games.
My issue with Edgar is the DH thing and whether the numbers properly penalize that.
I could be persuaded on both, but not yet.
I'd imagine that in a lower-scoring environment, Raines's stolen bases might be more valuable at the top of the lineup, because simply getting a runner into scoring position is important in a game where every run is precious. In a higher scoring environment, however, being able to take an extra base through stealing or good baserunning would be (again, I'd imagine) much less important than say, simply being on base since it's likely that the heart of the lineup will drive you in.
I haven't studied it, but the reasoning behind Bill James's suggestion that good base stealers are more valuable AFTER the heart of the lineup sounded (and still sounds) reasonable to me. With the same reasonably good-hitting lineup, wouldn't the team with a Jason Kendall-type (back when he was reasonably good) leading off and Raines batting sixth score more runs than one with the two players switched? Tim Raines can get himself to second base without help and can score from second on singles; a Kendall-type (post-injury, pre-decline) needed extra-base power (or multiple hits) behind him to get him home, and that's more likely to come from the heart of the order.
(Kendall was actually reasonably speedy at one point, so he may not be the best example for this. If someone wants to pick better examples, that's fine with me).
That actually understates the value of Raines' base stealing. Tom Ruane looked at (among other things) base stealing taking the base/out situation into account. Raines ran with disproportionate frequency in high leverage situations. Tom also gets Raines as the 5th best player in the Retrosheet era in terms of value not captured by the counter stats.
And as I've pointed out, there's reason to think the defensive metrics underrate Raines a little bit in that the years we have DA information for, he was the best left fielder in terms of saving extra bases on plays not made.
And that's before considering that conventional metrics subtly underrate Raines because his offensive skills are unusually well suited to the leadoff role. Put it all together and even the better metrics underrate Raines by a fair bit.
I'd made my initial comment after about 20 seconds worth of lookup and calculating, and it's good to be reassured that my little down-and-dirty is more than reinforced by more advanced measurements, especially those that weigh high leverage situations disproportionately, as they should.
And when you've got a leadoff hitter with a propensity to steal bases, it would be interesting to see just how those SB's would have boosted his SLG and OPS if you thought of the single + SB combination as a leadoff double, which is what it is to all intents and purposes. AFAIC Raines is almost a poster boy for the value of supplementing traditional stats with advanced metrics, and hopefully the writers will gradually have this point sink in.
What is the story, or those of us who don't know who Tim Tebow is other than he's mentioned on BBTF every 4 minutes and don't feel like Googling it?
I'd imagine that in a lower-scoring environment, Raines's stolen bases might be more valuable at the top of the lineup, because simply getting a runner into scoring position is important in a game where every run is precious. In a higher scoring environment, however, being able to take an extra base through stealing or good baserunning would be (again, I'd imagine) much less important than say, simply being on base since it's likely that the heart of the lineup will drive you in.
Ummmm, Raines was good at both. .385 OBP, 82% SB%.
Openly Christian QB (did a Pro-Life ad with his Mom for Superbowl, claims to be a virgin), great success in college (incl Heisman), though not to have skills to QB in pros, has taken over as QB for Broncos and led them to a long winning streak including many dramatic comebacks.
That's not a great story.
Don't know if this will make any difference, but he played 103 of 114 games in 1994, and 131 of 144 in 1995. Those extrapolate out to 146 and 147
Still only 8000 career PAs. That's only ~300 more than Mattingly. Better player, sure. But it's a really short career for a modern HoFer.
Tebow's a great story, though a quick glance at Denver's losing opponents reveals exactly one team (Cincinnati, week 2) that wasn't either dreadful (Oakland, KC, Minnesota) or going through a terrible streak at the time they met the Broncos (Miami, the Jets, San Diego, the Bears). It'll be interesting to see how Tebow can do against an opponent like the Patriots, a team with a porous defense but also a team that's likely to put up a lot of points for him to have to match. We'll find out this weekend.
Since the thread is already a little bit hijacked, and Raines has been well-discussed here before ... I have often thought that being an NFL quarterback is a little like being a ML closer. There are probably a lot more guys who can do the job adequately, both mentally and physically, than there are jobs to go around. The QB on my own favorite teams of all time, Troy Aikman, is often seen as someone with limited skills, but he's got lots of rings and is a Hall of Famer, based on simply executing everything he did very well and meshing perfectly with his teammates. Obviously there are superior quarterbacks – though even at that I saw a magazine headline last summer, "Peyton Manning: Overrated?" But it probably doesn't take a superior QB to start in the NFL, even on a pretty good team, even on a champion.
To bring that back to baseball, being a closer is one of those jobs that involves more mystique than raw performance. And to bring it full circle, being a great leadoff man is perhaps one of those jobs that involves more performance than mystique. There have only been a handful of guys better than Raines at what he did, but writers look at him and say "played forever, didn't hit .300, didn't get 3,000 hits, didn't even get 1,000 RBIs, you're telling me that's a Hall of Famer?"
It also has to do with the WAY they're winning games. They won one game when Tebow completed only 2 passes. The coaches are inventing an offensive scheme built around Tebow on the fly. The last second comebacks just add to the unlikeliness of it but add to the theme of Tebow as a "savior" figure and drives the people who hate him even more batshit insane. I don't even really follow the NFL, but it has been a great sports story.
Did we mention that last week, a player on an opposing team that lost to Tebow's team gave a statement in which he seemed almost appreciative to lose that game, as it allowed him to witness first hand how Tebow has been "blessed" and "anointed" by God, and in turn improved the relationship that he and several of his teammates have with their creator?
BTW, if going to one knee in prayer after a touchdown is called Tebowing, should a glance-and-point to heaven following a homer be called Pujoling?
Now it's gone from a neutral story to a bad story.
Ugh
When you do it at an 82.5% rate, yeah.
When you do it at 60-70%, no.
B-Ref has Raines baserunning worth 121 runs over his career. That's a ton of value.
Getting caught is never justified. But if you swipe bags at an 85 percent clip, that's always been an asset, Earl and Casey's proclamations notwithstanding.
Edit: Coke to snapper.
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