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Looking at the JAWS CF leaderboard, and sorting on WAR7, Murphy is still only 18th among CF. Behind Andre Dawson, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran, and Cesar Cedeno. In front of Vada Pinson, Larry Doby, Willie Davis and Fred Lynn.
Dale Murphy: 140 OPS+ from 1980-87 (ages 24-31), 5 gold gloves in CF, back to back MVPs. (Not that he necessarily should have been MVP in 1987, but his MVP-11 is a joke -- he had a better year than Dawson.)
He's got 14 points of OPS+ on Dawson during Dawson's best 8 year run, which basically overlaps.
Selective (best) endpoints on Rice '77-'86, OPS+ of 135, with brutal defense. Murphy was better than Rice and it's barely worthy of conversation.
Rickey '81-'90 (best endpoints): 142 OPS+.
Murphy should be getting more HOF play than he is.
Add to this the problem that there are 20 guys on the ballot who deserve and/or will recieve a lot of close attention.
Why is there a 10-name limit? Is there any rational reason for having this rule?
I think it has virtually no impact. Voters are voting for fewer candidates each year. I have never seen any report but the math suggests that the number of people maxing out the ballot is so low as to be meaningless.
Looking at the JAWS CF leaderboard, and sorting on WAR7, Murphy is still only 18th among CF. Behind Andre Dawson, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran, and Cesar Cedeno.
Given that his candidacy is built on peak, and then we have to massage the numbers to make his peak look good, tends to support that he doesn't belong in the HOF.
Right. Supposing he were average on D during his prime, that would net him about a win and a half and put him about even with Beltran.
I think you are underselling that a bit. Murphy won 5 straight GGs from 82-86. His Rfield for those years is -43. Giving him 0 to put him at average, that's ~4 wins. Tacking on 4 wins to his WAR7 puts him around Richie Ashburn at 9 or 10.
It is average seasons, not above average, that he lacks.
the number of people maxing out the ballot is so low as to be meaningless.
Your -43 excludes his '80 and '87 seasons ...
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