Welcome back, JM Catellier…and his “own unique statistical formula”!
Read More...The average 20th century Hall of Fame starting pitcher has 258.3 career wins. That number is dragged down by Sandy Koufax’ 165 victories, but he can’t be omitted from this exercise as I consider him the best starting pitcher to ever throw a baseball.
Former Boston Red Sox ace Pedro Martinez retired following the 2009 season with just 219 wins and only two 20-win seasons. Is it possible that he’s a first ballot Hall of ...
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1 2 >Oddly enough, fangraphs and BR agree on the defense of both Smith and Tinker, giving Smith credit for 239 runs saved above average with his glove, and Tinker with 180 runs saved above average. Yeah, Joe isn't the Wizard of Oz with his glove, but then who is? 180 runs better than average is no where near being a "clod-footed infielder" known for his poor defensive play. I'd always gathered that the main reason that he and Evers hardly spoke was that Evers was pretty much impossible to get along with.
That whole section is just off--he calls it the "power of prose" when it was the poem that has remained with us, he calls Franklin Pierce Adams "Pierce", and in general sells a man famous enough in his time to be well-known by his initials (F.P.A.) just a tiny bit short. Writers appearing in Adams' column "The Conning Tower" were getting the best possible career launch available at the time--Dorothy Parker once gratefully noted Adams' influence on her success: "He raised me from a couplet."
This is a tired rehash of information that most of us have known about since the first edition of James's Historical Baseball Abstract.
Isn't he in basically for being one of the clean "Black Sox"?
I rambled through B-Ref PI trying to find the most similar recent/contemporary players to these "Worst Five."
Joe Tinker's might be Rafael Furcal: decent major-league hitter, very good offense for a shortstop; Tinker's glove would be better, but Furcal's has kept him in the league as he declines offensively. Similar career length so far.
As a hitter, and in terms of career length, Eric Chavez is currently a nice comp for Lindstrom. Edgardo Alfonso would be closer as a defensive player, and eerily had exactly as many career PA as Lindstrom. Fine players, briefly looked to be top stars, didn't reach where they were headed.
Chick Hafey is not unlike Kevin Mitchell. Some weaknesses as a player, and a short career, but a seriously excellent hitter for a while. (TFA does acknowledge that Hafey was good, but calls him "selfish"; I don't know why.)
In terms of career IP and ERA+, Haines is very close to Orel Hershiser. Hershiser was better for longer at his peak (though Haines was outstanding for a year or two). So maybe Haines is closer to recent pitchers like Javier Vazquez and Kevin Millwood; his career is also sort of like those of Mark Langston and Frank Viola, from earlier on. In other words, a star at best, and around for quite a while as a useful rotation guy (Haines threw a lot of relief innings).
Herb Pennock's career is extremely close to those of Kenny Rogers and David Wells, in terms of ERA+ and IP. And all were left-handed. I'll go with the one who had more success in New York. Pennock was slimmer than Wells, but who isn't.
In other words, they aren't similar to any recent players with very good HOF cases, but they are similar to some pretty #### good baseball players. Enough of this "abysmal" and "miserable" rhetoric!
correct
"Been there; seen that" is the groupthink response to these type of screeds.
He identifies five unworthies that the good folks at HoM have correctly analyzed and found lacking.
Strong cases can and have been made for the exclusion of many others.
As I recall the Frisch lead old-timers selections were/are a driving force in the HoM exercise as for the most part the writers got it right.
I think those articles have been done a lot more frequently recently. These type of articles, worse ever in the hof, used to be more common, but I think with the growth of the popularity of war, that they have died down, as War is a great tool for presenting it, and it mostly just became "lowest war totals" of players in the hof.
Mind you, I'm a sucker for all hof articles, so the more there are, the happier I am.
But if last year came down to Raines or Santo, I could make the call to put one in but not the other, I would have picked Santo since he's waited so long. Though maybe not, since it went a little too long for Santo's benefit. Raines would at least have been able to give a speech.
Next year the 5 best players not in the hall will just be a list of Roiders and suspected Roiders.
What I always did for HoM candidate pitchers was determine a yearly equivalent record from RA+ and IP, and then add up the yearly totals to get a career. I have Hershiser at 191-157 and Haines at 193-163. So the comparison is fair, but I think Hershiser was a little better, and Hershiser's best years were better. I've got VIola at 177-138 which is very close to the same value, and Langston at 178-151 which is a little lower. Another pitcher in that territory: Dwight Gooden at 174-137, although Gooden's top season is something none of these other pitchers could approach. If Dennis Eckersley had retired rather than becoming a reliever, his equivalent record as a starter would be 166-124. That's also in the same range of value.
But if you're going to bag on Haines, what about Catfish Hunter? I have his RA+ equivalent record as 206-178. That's a little more bulk than Haines, but it isn't really any more valuable.
I only wish that Tinker/Evers/Chance could have gone in as an entry, since virtually nobody who's heard of one of them hasn't heard of the other two. There's a decent statistical case to be made against Tinker and probably Chance, but this isn't the Hall of Merit.
The best Hall of Merit case there is Chance. Chance was a great player when he was in the lineup, arguably the best first basemen between the "ABC" sluggers of the 1880's and the emergence of Gehrig/Foxx/Greenberg. (Yes, there was Sisler. That's an argument.) The knock on Chance was his lack of in-season durability and his consequent low number of career games played. Chance still appears on HoM ballots even now. (And the HoM is considering him only as a player, giving him no credit for managing.) I briefly had each of Tinker and Evers on the lower parts of my HoM ballots, but didn't keep them there in the long run. If there's an offense that the HoF committed here, it's not so much that they elected Tinker as it is that they overlooked Davis and Dahlen. (They got back to Davis many years later, in a friendly-to-history time. They still haven't gotten to Dahlen.)
Herb Pennock's career is extremely close to those of Kenny Rogers and David Wells, in terms of ERA+ and IP. And all were left-handed. I'll go with the one who had more success in New York. Pennock was slimmer than Wells, but who isn't.
RA+ equivalent record for Pennock: 216-181. I haven't worked up Rogers and Wells yet - maybe I should. I'll take that as a little better than Haines/Hershiser. Some other records in the same neighborhood as Pennock's: Jack Morris 226-199 (uh-oh), Dennis Martinez 231-203, Chuck Finley 199-156, Frank Tanana 245-220.
I would have gone Santo all the way, Raines is just above the line among corner outfielders and is getting a saber bump that potentially overrates him, but Santo is well ahead of the standards established for third baseman.
That is of course going to change the tone of the articles. I think when that happens, I'm going to go by "best player not in the hof, who has been eligible for over 5 years" just so I can avoid those discussions. I'm a hof argument type of guy, but I honestly don't care one little bit if they used roids, and just don't want to continue rehashing the discussions.
But I see Rick did make it to 7 All-Star Games, he had a career .378 OBP, and I presume he good defensively. (He has a few great CS% seasons, and he played catcher — and never any position but catcher — until he was 41.) So maybe he was well regarded in his era.
Still... I dunno. A 95 OPS+, 1692 career hits, and 28(!) career home runs doesn't scream "induction." In the BBWAA vote, he got ONE vote in 1956, 1958 and 1960 (probably the same voter each time). That's it.
One thing to be said about those Frisch selections, especially the ones from the Cardinals: There is an assumption that, if a franchise wins a lot of pennants in few years, then they must have a core of two or three Hall of Famers that cover the whole winning span and are the driving forces. The problem is that the Cardinals of 1926-34 don't really have those guys. They had Branch Rickey's first farm system, and won largely with depth and rental stars. The real Famers that appeared for them were Hornsby, Frisch himself, Burleigh Grimes, Dizzy Dean, and Pete Alexander. But none of those guys was there for the whole run. The only guys who were were Haines, Hafey, and Jim Bottomly, who is a borderline Hall candidate, but not the anchor of a pennant machine lineup. My belief is that Frisch exploited the notion that there had to be a cadre at the center of the Cards of that time to push the candidacies of those three. - Brock Hanke
And Dick Allen...
I think that he is a perfectly acceptable selection, when he was eligible he had the 2nd most games caught ever at the position(12th now) 7 all star games is pretty impressive. With catchers there is an assumption that if they have been around for a while, that they are providing some type of value beyond their offense. In hindsight he isn't as good as his reputation as a player, but basically he was one of the best career candidates among catchers. Considering the poor job the bbwaa has done at selecting catchers, it's hard to hold their lack of votes for him against him.
C: Schalk or Ferrell
1b: George Kelly
2b: Maz
3b: Lindstrom
SS: Rizzuto or Maranville or Jackson
LF: Hafey
CF: L. Waner
RF: Youngs
P: Haines, with Sutter to finish up
One thing I notice (besides the obvious Frisch connections) is that this would be a hellacious defensive team.
But if you dropped them into a normal league they'd still be pretty bad, because they wouldn't score very many runs.
So there's a combination of the Frisch thing, and a tendency to defense right after the lively-ball era kicked in.
Are still way better than you or me ever were at baseball.
Herb Pennock, one of the guys mentioned in the article, was voted in by the BBWAA. Probably their worst pick.
The best Hall of Merit case there is Chance. Chance was a great player when he was in the lineup, arguably the best first basemen between the "ABC" sluggers of the 1880's and the emergence of Gehrig/Foxx/Greenberg. (Yes, there was Sisler. That's an argument.)
And the argument for him gets even better if you decide to give him any credit for managing the Cubs through arguably the greatest run any team has ever had. (Most wins in a 1-year period, 2-year period, 3-year, 4-year, 5-year, etc -- happened on his was). There's a reason why they called him the Peerless Leader.
I was always confused by the Rick Ferrell selection. I thought maybe the Veterans Committee wanted to elect WES Ferrell and something went wrong in the copyediting.
They meant Rick. Everyone liked him. He was a good player, but mostly everyone liked him. It was a terrible pick. At least with Frisch's picks you had the era-inflated numbers.
It's not a good list. Rube Marquard, Tommy McCarthy, Kelly, and Schalk are all probably worse than any of the five. Well, maybe Lindstrom. McCarthy, if my sources are right, was elected more for inventing the hit and run than anything else.
I don't think it was even that well thought out. When the Old Timers Committee put guys in by the bushel in the 1940s, they had no encyclopedias or anything like that. And they didn't do any research that anyone can think of. McCarthy? He was part of that great 1890s Boston team. And he was paired up with Hugh Duffy in hazy memory. Duffy was a great guy and deserved to be in - McCarthy's the guy you think of right after Duffy. So put him in too - after all, it was a great team.
Jim Rice, Bruce Sutter, Rollie Fingers, Catfish Hunter....Just concentrating on the writer votes.
And rightly so. 400 guys getting it wrong is always a bigger deal than 12 guys pushing an agenda. Everyone pretty much takes the "FRANKIE SAY" era of the Veterans Committee at the same face value as the 1887 batting title, or Armando Galarraga's one-hitter.
Compare that team to the best team eligible but not in, and more than likely not going in (which is why I'm not including Bagwell on the following list as I think he goes in eventually)
C: Ted Simmons
1b: Mark McGwire(if you want a roid disqualifier go with Keith Hernandez)
2b: Grich (or Whittaker)
SS: Dahlen(or Trammell)
3b: Dick Allen (or Boyer, Bando, Bell or Evans)
LF: Raines
CF: Wynn
RF: Larry Walker
DH: Edgar.
P: Kevin Brown.
Jack Morris
Jack Morris
Jack Morris
Oh, am I early?
Echoing #29, if you put all of those players in their primes, fill out the pitching staff with Pennock, Hunter, and 1 or 2 others, compare them to the (99-win, world champion) 2005 White Sox. That team's a playoff contender and could certainly win the odd World Series. They're obviously not as good as the team in #30, though.
Jackson gets kind of an unfair rep. He had a really good peak, he just fell apart early. His comps through 27 include five HoM guys and Jeter, and another all-time great pre-30 crash in Fregosi.
Yeah, I don't see how Waner doesn't make a list of worst ever. A 99 OPS+ from an OF? Career high of 116? I don't care if he was Curt Flood's more talented brother on defense, that's nowhere near HOF, or even HOVG production.
Following up:
The HOF was not kind to70's CF. Unless I'm missing somebody (and I probably am), no HOF CF but Willie Mays played in the 70's*, and he of course for just 3 years at the end of his career. The following CF have no chance at the HOF, and have a better WAR in the 70's than Lloyd Waner in his career:
Cesar Cedeno
Amos Otis
Garry Maddox
Al Oliver
Bobby Murcer
Fred Lynn
Mickey Rivers
Willie Davis
Bill North
*and Andre Dawson
So did Ross Youngs. Though Jackson had a longer peak, and was better overall.
Still, as somebody else pointed out, the worst HOFer was darn good at the baseballing.
Interestingly, Willie McGee only got MVP votes once in his career. But he won the award that year. That seems like something that'd be pretty rare.
Non HOF CF from the 80's, with more WAR in the 80's than Waner in his career:
Dale Murphy
Chet Lemon
Willie Wilson
Dwayne Murphy
Brett Butler
Lloyd Moseby
Eric Davis
Willie McGee just misses with 21, but he adds another 10 in the 90's to be 9 ahead of Waner for career.
Al Bumbry actually just edges out Lloyd Waner in career WAR, 22.3 - 22.0, but splits it across both decades (1973 - 84). Bumbry is, of course, nobody's idea of a Hall-of-Famer (he might be a borderline guy for the Hall of Pretty Good (maybe more of a Hall of "Eh, he had his moments")), although following up on my #32, Al Bumbry was the starting CF for two pennant winners and one World Series winner (as well as a 100-win non-playoff team).
Checking some obvious candidates:
Wille Hernandez
Jim Konstanty
honorable mention:
Roger Maris- 2 wins and 1 25th place.
Terry Pendleton got votes in only two seasons, but he ended up with a first-place finish and a second-place one. Hal Newhouser won the award twice, finished second in 1946, and finished ninth in the only onther year he got any votes.
Edit: That should say the only other guys I found.
You guys should know that nicknames are worth about 200 HOF votes.
Wow. When skimming the list of MVP winners, I skipped over Cami because I know he had a few really good years around his MVP year, and was sure he got votes in them. I guess not.
1995 - 137 OPS+ GG 0 MVP votes
1996 - 174 OPS+ GG Unanimous MVP
1997 - 141 OPS+ GG 0 MVP votes
All seasons over 576 PA
I guess it is really all about the RBIs:
1995 - 94
1996 - 130
1997 - 90
And Perez and Puckett and Aparicio and Dizzy Dean and Dawson might round out the questionable writer inductions. (All of these guys except Rice and maybe Perez have a case.) And all the closers as far as I'm concerned but that's more a "philosophical" difference than anything -- i.e. if I was going to put short relievers in the HoF, I guess those would be the 3 I'd start with. Their list of unwarranted omissions is of similar length.
On the 70s/80s ... it's a double whammy. They followed a period of truly great hitters and pitchers and so had a high hurdle. But also, for whatever reason, the 70s and 80s just didn't produce a lot of truly great hitters and pitchers. Jack Morris was initially hurt by the fact that every ballot for a long time had a 300-game winner on it; now he benefits from the fact that he has a legit case for being the "best" starter for a 10-15 year period because everybody else just wasn't particularly good or got hurt. It seems that the voters always have difficulty assessing players during "transition" periods.
I used to bag on the Dean selection, but have been convinced that there is a slight justification for it. Intuitively to me, he's a poor choice, but since he's a Cardinal, I allow others to convince me he's not a bad choice. Dawson is justifiable in my opinion. Yes he didn't deserve his MVP, but he was a better player than Rice and is at least a borderline candidate(as much as one can be with a poor obp in an offense first position). I had just assumed Perez went in by the vets committee. I don't see how you can keep Aparicio out. You don't win ROY, make 10 all star teams, receive MVP votes in 9 seasons (2 of which he didn't make the all star team) and 9 gold gloves at shortstop, without being perceived as a hell of a player. No matter what the numbers say today, it's impossible to really say that Aparicio was a bad pick. Puckett is a special case, the writers more or less projected a normal decline onto his career and said that he is in. It's as if Dale Murphy would have quitted the game after 1987 for a medical reason. The writers would have intuitively projected a normal decline and said "that is a hofer"...
Yes, but I'm in the camp that the Hall of Fame confers fame, not recognizes it. It leads to a slippery slope that eventually results in put Michael Jordan, Bo Jackson or even Garth Brooks into the hof discussion. Or if you limit to major leaguers you have Bo Jackson, Deion Sanders and John Rocker(who's more infamous than famous but two sides of the same coin) or around here Francouer for the HOF.
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