Welcome back, JM Catellier…and his “own unique statistical formula”!
Read More...The average 20th century Hall of Fame starting pitcher has 258.3 career wins. That number is dragged down by Sandy Koufax’ 165 victories, but he can’t be omitted from this exercise as I consider him the best starting pitcher to ever throw a baseball.
Former Boston Red Sox ace Pedro Martinez retired following the 2009 season with just 219 wins and only two 20-win seasons. Is it possible that he’s a first ballot Hall of ...
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< 1 2A lot of people on Phillies message boards are convinced that Cliff Lee's contract is an albatross of hilariously ludicrous proportions. All the anxiety over all the Phillies' big contracts is transferred to Cliff Lee. Probably because he came back to the team in such a surprising way - fans were already expecting a future of a high-priced team without Cliff Lee, and suddenly he was added to the team as well.
This team is wildly over budget! They have X million dollars already committed for 2015! Hurry up and trade Cliff Lee already! He's way past his prime!
Of course from the thinking fan's perspective*, you might well make a very similar argument -- you're wildly over budget, hurry up and trade Cliff Lee already, he's the only long-term, high-priced player you've got that anybody would want.
* I am THE thinking fan, right? :-)
Morris isn't worthy of washing Blyleven's jockstrap.
If Schilling had the obviously better peak, he'd win this one pretty clearly. As is, it's Blyleven's solid but unspectacular additional career value vs. a lot of ancillary stuff that is in Schilling's favor. It probably comes down to the UER difference.
There's no excuse for phoning it in. For the bathroom guy maybe. But when you write something, it's online theoretically forever with your name on it. That ought to be a pretty bracing thought. It's not OK. The analogy shouldn't be to the bathroom guy but to an athlete. Everybody has those nights when they strike out four times or give up five runs in the first inning. Happens to the best of 'em, and crap columns happen to the best of writers.
But if a player phones it in? We don't forgive that.
It's even refutable!!!"
Was this a typo or meant as a joke or what? You write enough that's it's hard for me to think you got the word wrong. "Refutable" means "easy to beat in a debate." It's "IRrefutable" that means "impossible to beat in a debate." - Brock Hanke
I think by "refutable" he means "falsifiable", as in, this assertion could be proved wrong because we have actual data. An unfalsifiable assertion is unscientific because there could be no evidence either for it or against it.
Falsifiability
In this case, the point is that you can tell that people treated him as an ace because he was paid a lot of money, he was the opening-day starter on multiple occasions, etc. as SugarBeak has told us time and time again.
1. Sign the 5 starters who best pitch to the score.
2. Spend nothing above league minimum on your position players. You'll have an offense that makes the 2010 Mariners look good, but that does not matter.
3. Even if your pitchers have career ERAs of 4.50, they will challenge Bob Gibson's 1968 this year. Because they have to. They can pitch to the score.
4. Profit!
Clearly, statistics are not irrelevant. But they should be used to support the naked eye, not create an alternate reality.
In other words, decide first based on your gut, pick the stats that agree with your assumption, and ignore anything that makes you question that assumption. Oy....
Here's another thing that bothers me: The valuation of regular-season statistics over postseason ones.
Because as we all know, small sample sizes are way cooler than large ones.
You know these guys. They get all frothy-mouthed each time a new acronym is invented to try and quantify value, yet show little or no reaction when a difficult doubleplay is executed, or a well-thrown pitch is fought off by a batter down in the count.
Of course statheads never get any kind of emotional/visceral thrills out of watching a ballgame. Besides, strawmen are fun to create.
Thing is, I saw Jack Morris pitch, and he was great. Great enough for the Hall of Fame? All I know is there are less great players in there.
If you're looking at career ERA+, there are only two such worse HoF pitchers than Morris (105) would be, Catfish Hunter at 104 and Rube Marquard at 103. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Once, when the Internet was not as friendly and we sought to observe athletic greatness rather than quantify it, sports was a simpler world. You watched under well-lit skies and inside of electrified arenas and amid pivotal moments and you did not need to look anything up afterward to understand what you saw.
And just to make things worse, Donnellon wants those pesky kids to get the Sam Hill off his lawn.
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