Sutton: Because that’s where the defaced money is.
Read More...The outspoken Sutton—who came up with the Dodgers in 1966 and pitched with them for 16 of his 23 seasons—has his own opinion about everything.
He said in an interview last week that he hates pitch counts.
“I say it with a laugh in my voice when I broadcast: ‘That’s 100 pitches. On the next one, he’s going to turn into a troll.’ At 101, you just disappear. Poof, you’re gone,” Sutton said.
...MLB.com: Did you cheat?
Sutton: No, I never got ...
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You can make a case that Morris is similar to some HoFers from before WW2 like Ruffing and Grimes. Ruffing has an argument for luckiest man who ever lived -- he went 39-96 (39-96!) with the Red Sox to start his career, with a 92 ERA+. He got traded to the Yanks (why did they want him?) where he went 231-124 with a very solid 119 ERA+. If he'd gotten traded to the Browns or the Senators, he probably ends up with one of the worst W-L records of all-time. He got a young start and would have had a real shot at 300 losses. Although if he didn't miss two seasons for the war, he might well have made 300 so the devil took a small slice as is his due.
But compared to the more contemporary sims and at best you can make a case he's like Bunning -- who did have to wait for the VC but came very close as Morris obviously will if he doesn't make it. But it's also true that if he's any better than Dennis Martinez, it is by the slimmest of margins (and one Game 7).
From the SABR Baseball Biography of Ruffing:
http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/7111866b
Rk Player ERA+ W L WAR IP From To1 Jamie Moyer 104 269 209 44.8 4074.0 1986 2012
2 Sad Sam Jones 104 229 217 34.5 3883.0 1914 1935
3 Catfish Hunter 104 224 166 32.1 3449.1 1965 1979 H
'4 Jack Morris 105 254 186 39.3 3824.0 1977 1994'
5 Frank Tanana 106 240 236 52.6 4188.1 1973 1993
6 Herb Pennock 106 241 162 38.8 3571.2 1912 1934 H
7 Dennis Martinez 106 245 193 45.1 3999.2 1976 1998
8 Jim Kaat 108 283 237 40.4 4530.1 1959 1983
9 Burleigh Grimes 108 270 212 44.2 4180.0 1916 1934 H
10 David Wells 108 239 157 49.4 3439.0 1987 2007
11 Red Ruffing 109 273 225 48.6 4344.0 1924 1947 H
Rk Player ERA+ W L WAR IP From To1 Jerry Koosman 110 222 209 53.1 3839.1 1967 1985
2 Tommy John 111 288 231 56.9 4710.1 1963 1989
3 Mel Harder 113 223 186 42.2 3426.1 1928 1947
4 Jack Quinn 114 247 218 53.5 3920.1 1909 1933
5 Rick Reuschel 114 214 191 64.6 3548.1 1972 1991
6 Luis Tiant 114 229 172 61.8 3486.1 1964 1982
7 Wilbur Cooper 116 216 178 47.2 3480.0 1912 1926
8 Billy Pierce 119 211 169 50.0 3306.2 1945 1964
Huh, I didn't realise Ruffing was on the roster in 2012...
I always thought he was a very questionable inductee. He had three or four HOF-caliber years and a HOF-caliber nickname, but that's about it.
If you forced me to choose between Hunter or Morris for the Hall of Fame, I'd probably take Morris. Catfish had a better peak, but his peak wasn't that long and he basically doesn't have anything else. Didn't strike out many, gave up a ton of home runs, career over at 33, good-not-great postseason numbers (great with the A's, lousy with the Yankees).
(On a similar note, thanks largely to some bad games with the Blue Jays, ice-in-his-veins all-time postseason ace Jack Morris has a 3.80 career ERA in the postseason.)
I don't know if he is deserving, but do think he is more deserving than Morris. Catfish had a couple of Cy Young quality seasons, Morris never did.
Both are clearly short of Bunning IMO and I thought that Bunning was a stretch even before I knew Bunning was a crackpot. He had a very solid 11 years of nearly 3000 IP, 126 ERA+ and near 600 WP. He also struck out a lot for his time and had a K/BB over 3. He gets "screwed" in the CYA because of the voting rules -- only his last good season was a year in which they voted in each league and they were one name per ballot for his entire good run. Under more recent voting rules, I'm sure he'd have done better than that one 2nd place finish (which is a single 1st place vote).
But I am somewhat small hall -- i.e. my personal HoF applies something closer to the "writer standards" -- and I am possibly extra tough on pitchers. I don't know why I am more impressed by peak-only hitters than I am by peak-only pitchers, probably due to coming of baseball age in the 70s, but I am. Morris doesn't come close to qualifying for me under either peak or career, but I probably don't give Bunning (or Stieb or Saberhagen) his due. Is Bunning in the HoM?
Elected in his first year of eligibility (though not overwhelmingly).
A related question:
Hunter retired in 1979, and made the HOF in 1987 in just his third year of eligibility. Morris retired in 1994 and is entering his 14th year of eligibility and obviously hasn't gotten in yet.
If the retirement dates were flipped, but the numbers were the same, would Morris already be in the HOF and would Catfish still be waiting to get in? In other words, would the voters of the mid-'80s have appreciated Jack Morris' career more than the voters of the 2000s? And would today's voters have been as impressed with Catfish as those '80s voters?
Meanwhile, between Catfish Hunter's induction and Jack Morris' first year of eligibility, we saw:
1990 - Jim Palmer
1991 - Gaylord Perry, Ferguson Jenkins
1992 - Tom Seaver, Rollie Fingers
1994 - Steve Carlton
1997 - Phil Niekro
1998 - Don Sutton
1999 - Nolan Ryan
Setting aside the reliever, all of those guys were much more deserving than Jack Morris. But all of them were also more deserving than Catfish Hunter (unless you heavily weigh peak and think he was better than Sutton).
So Morris was getting compared to a much stronger HOF population, and he also came on the ballot right after a decade that inducted 9 pitchers, with Seaver, Carlton, Palmer and (in the popular view) Ryan among the all-time elites. Plus by the year 2000 sabermetrics was starting to go mainstream and intelligent people were devaluing pitcher wins as a stat.
I think it's quite reasonable to be more impressed by peak only hitters, as starting pitchers are much more variable, so it's much easier for them to have a high peak relative to peers than hitters. Starters have only played 35-40 games per year over the last 50 years or so. That's a very small sample size, so it's clear you should be able to have a higher peak as a pitcher than hitter (unless you normalize by variance, but OPS+ only normalizes by mean, not variance).
Hunter's in the Hall largely because his best years coincided with a period in which starting pitcher innings were actually climbing, in part because the AL introduced the DH and in part because it was still a relatively low-scoring era. Both trends reversed abruptly around 1976.
-- MWE
Player W GS ERA+ W-L% IPRed Ruffing 273 538 109 .548 4344.0
Burleigh Grimes 270 497 108 .560 4180.0
Jack Morris 254 527 105 .577 3824.0
Dennis Martinez 245 562 106 .559 3999.2
Jack Powell 245 516 106 .491 4389.0
David Wells 239 489 108 .604 3439.0
Sad Sam Jones 229 487 104 .513 3883.0
Jerry Koosman 222 527 110 .515 3839.1
Joe Niekro 221 500 98 .520 3584.1
Jerry Reuss 220 547 100 .535 3669.2
Mickey Lolich 217 496 104 .532 3638.1
Bob Friend 197 497 107 .461 3611.0
Claude Osteen 196 488 104 .501 3460.2
Good pitchers all. Interesting happenstance that the two HOFers have a few more wins than Morris and a few more IP. Ruffing and Grimes seem to set a previous low-water-mark for pitchers who just weren't that great, in terms of what they needed to accumulate for election. (And as noted, the shape of Ruffing's career makes him an oddity even in this group.)
Player WAR W L ERA+ OPS+ IP From To Age GS W-L% ERA HR/9 H/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB WHIPCatfish Hunter 23.4 111 49 127 77 1471.2 1971 1975 25-29 190 .694 2.65 0.84 7.11 2.13 4.99 2.34 1.027
Jack Morris 20.2 94 54 120 82 1324.0 1983 1987 28-32 176 .635 3.38 1.02 7.79 3.09 6.81 2.20 1.209
Actually for the last hundred years, if you look at the league leaders in games started.
Phil Niekro, Wilbur Wood and Mickey Lolich had seasons of more than 42 games started during the 1970s. Before them, the last pitcher to start more than 42 games was George Uhle in 1923. Over 40 games doesn't become common until over a hundred years ago.
Of course now the absolute maximum a starter will start is 35, whereas 50 to 80 years ago it was 42.
This statement cannot possibly be true. Please show your work.
Rk Yrs From To Age1 Greg Maddux 15 1988 2007 22-41
2 Jack Morris 11 1980 1992 25-37
3 Frank Viola 10 1983 1992 23-32
4 Tom Glavine 9 1988 2007 22-41
5 Randy Johnson 8 1993 2005 29-41
6 John Smoltz 7 1990 2006 23-39
I'm curious too. Is this something you've written an article on and could link to?
Just with a quick check on BB-ref I see Blyleven had slightly worse run support than his leagues, he got 4.2 runs per game. Look at the AL league averages for 1970-1992, except for 1978-80 when he was in the NL, league average run support was 4.27 per game. So an average pitcher in his decisions maybe goes 267-270, putting Bert 20 wins above average.
That's a lot less than BB-ref, which has him at +52 wins above average and +91 WAR. If that is all Bert being unclutch, then it knocks his WAR down to +59, still a pretty good candidate. But I don't know how much of the W-L shortfall is on Bert, or is the fault of his bullpens. Bert was so good for so long though that it seems academic. The worst interpretation of him is a lowest tier HOF starter, the best interpretation puts him in the second tier of all-time greats, below guys like Johnson/Clemens/Young/Seaver but right there with Carlton, Ryan, and Perry.
That's because the dominant voices in this group use Hall of Fame discussions as a surrogate for the Hall of Merit, and refuse to acknowledge any difference between them. Not much you can do about it but be glad that their opinions didn't weigh much when Catfish came up for a vote.
Deacon pitched 2607 IP with a 120 ERA+.
The IP are low because he didn't get to the bigs until he was 27, due to the fact that 1890s baseball only had 12 teams, contracted from the 16 that the NL and the AA had had, so teams weren't exactly desperate for pitchers. He also pitched smaller schedules than Morris. He pitched in only one World Series, 1903 (well, a couple of relief innings in 1909), but, because of assorted injuries, the Pirates, who had had depth during the season, were down to the Deacon and a bunch of injured guys. Phillippe pitched games 1 (beat Cy Young), 3 (beat Hughes, who was relieved by Young in the 3rd inning), and 4 (yes, back to back) beating Bill Dineen. This was more than his arm could take, but the Pirates had no options, so Deacon also pitched game 7 (lost to Young) AND 8 (lost to Dineen 3-0). These were ALL COMPLETE GAMES - 44 IP total.
Jack Morris has 3824 IP with a 105 ERA+.
Starting at age 27, he has 3026 IP with a 103 ERA+.
He pitched in more postseasons than Deacon did, but never pitched more than 33 IP in any one year's postseason, despite having two rounds of postseason games, and I don't think he ever had to pitch two consecutive games.
No one in the HoM has ever agreed with me to put the Deacon on a HoM ballot anywhere. Ever. Basically, I get laughed out of town. But, although Morris has a large IP edge, due to getting started earlier, he pitched much worse over his career, and his postseason heroics are no better than Phillippe's. Deacon beat Cy Young twice and Bill Dineen once, before having to pitch back-to-back games caught up to him.
If I get laughed out of town with the Deacon, what does that say about Jack Morris? It says he has no business in the HoM or the HoF. - Brock Hanke
WPA credits Blyleven with 30 wins above average. I'm not a big fan of WPA as a pitcher evaluation tool, but over a full career I'd think it would provide a reasonable run support- adjusted measure of Blyleven's contribution.
Carlton was inconsistent, to say the least. He's got a lot of typical years where he went 16-13 or so with an ERA a little better than league, and then these outrageous monster seasons, 1972 being very extreme, and then some truly bad years. His career doesn't make good narrative sense like, say, Hal Newhouser's. Nor was he consistently good and sometimes great, like Spahn, or consistently great like Seaver. Weird career.
a) He's at 67%. He's so very close, this would mean a huge amount to him and the (likely) Tigers fans who could celebrate his induction. He cosmetically fills a void for starting pitchers of the 80's by putting in a starter who happens to have a good W-L and would represent toughness/grit/workhorseyness/clutchness.
b) I really, really don't Jack Morris is a deserving Hall of Famer under our current standards. In a very "big" Hall alignment, he should sail in, but then so should Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Dennis Martinez and maybe Andy Pettitte (accounting for his extra season's worth of postseason work.) He's a first ballot Hall of Very Good kind of guy. To borrow from pro wrestling for a moment, the reason the world title means so much is because guys like Roddy Piper, Ted DiBiase and Scott Hall never won it even once.
however...
Morris is within a breath of the HOF. Standards change over time, and that means that sometimes they get a little lower. There are pre-WWII comparables, and there's always a place for narrative in the HOF in my eyes. If this means Jim Rice II: Pitching Boogaloo, then so be it. TEH FEAR, meet TEH ACE. If I had a vote, it would go to Morris this year.
If the voters put in Morris, how will they be able to look better pitchers with longer careers such as Tommy John or Jim Kaat in the face? Heck, electing Morris means they are obligated to give serious consideration to Jamie Moyer.
If Morris had even one measly season where he performed at an HOF level I might be able to understand it more, but one game does not make a peak. His best season is barely better than the very worst CYA-winning seasons for the love of God.
Well, that's obviously not going to happen. So you need a different theory of how the Hall of Fame works. The "Hall of Fame is made up of the best players" hypothesis has been proved wrong. What we're working on now is "The Hall of Fame contains two types of players. Those who get in because of their accomplishments, and those who have irresistible narratives."
and then there's Jim Rice.
This prompted me to look at his stats again. From 1971-73 he went
20-9 with a 102 ERA+
27-10 with a 182 ERA+
13-20 with a 97 ERA+ (leading the league in ER)
He had five truly great seasons, but they were scattered throughout his career. He also hung on way too long and was terrible in his last couple years.
So he was at 67% last year. Is the upcoming election (voting revealed in Jan, 2013, I believe) his final year on the ballot? Sorry for the dumb question.
Me too. I'm not against the narrative in every case. I would vote for Dizzy Dean. But for Morris, his regular season career is inferior to contemporaries who never got consideration, and his postseason heroics do not put him ahead of say, Orel Hershiser 1988.
As for Catfish Hunter, I don't get that one either. He was a pitch to contact innings eater who lucked out playing for a team with A) a great pitcher's park B) great defense behind him C) a great offense to support him and D) HOF relievers to back him up when he needed it. In short, he had every advantage to the same degree that Rick Reuschel had a disadvantage. Why is Hunter in and Reuschel a guy who will never have a chance?
It has nothing at all to do with the pitcher himself, and everything to do with the teams they found themselves on.
Because what you dub "advantage" is really just, "life." The best person for a job doesn't always get it, but if the person who does get it does very well with it, society tends to leave it at that. We don't bother looking for the third-base coach, or long-time assistant, who could have been Lombardi or Sparky if only given the chance. We laud Lombardi and Sparky as the great coach and great manager they were.
Saber orthodoxy demands that we look through maximization of opportunity, and obsess upon distributive fairness of opportunity. The problem it runs into is that no one wants to do that. Why? Because it runs counter to the essence of life. Constant if-onlying is a waste of time.
You can say reputation and aura/myth are stupid reasons to put someone in the HoF (or, on the hand, you could also say that they're why the Hall of Fame exists) -- but growing up, I know older fans and the guys I grew up reading on the sports pages, in Baseball Digest, listening to on weekends, etc.... to a person, they all lauded Catfish as one of the best of the 70s. Like I said - for virtually all of the 80s and 90s, I'd have concurred even if it was subconsciously just herdthink.
I've made peace with Morris getting in... He's going to make it, he'll be one of the worst, if not the worst pitcher in the Hall... but frankly, I get a lot more peeved over the injustices of guys kept out than I do the 'wrong' guys making it in... but of the pitchers in that category? Well, Dennis Martinez is almost Jack Morris exactly -- probably a skosch better -- and I'm not arguing for Denny going in. Dave Stieb was a better pitcher, but threw nearly a 700 fewer innings. Kevin Brown was better, but I think it's more a crime that he was one and done - not certain he should go either.
Sooo... my only issue with Morris going in is that he'll end up on ballots that skipped better candidates.
In one of the HoF threads, I think we did a look back at the Morris-era ballots, and I think there were only 2 or 3 instances (maybe less) where I could have found a spot for him. If I had a real ballot, I think I'd always vote 10 -- even on shallow ballots, I'd feel like I ought to at least take responsibility for giving guys like Ted Simmons or Kevin Brown or Bobby Grich another look.
I think I had Morris something like 11th on my ballot this time around -- and it was probably close to a coin flip between him and Lee Smith.
But whatever... I remember Morris - and if I ever have yunguns to take to the HoF, I won't be shy about telling them he's not really on par with the other plaques... but I'll probably also spin tales of the 91 WS, of the grizzled innings eater 'ace by default' he was most of his career, etc. That's not the worst thing in the world.
You're forgetting his multiple large free-agent contracts. The story practically writes itself.....
A.) Granted Oakland Coliseum is a pitchers park; B.) Not sure Oakland had a great defense behind him. In their World Series years, they committed 130-140 errors a year and had no Gold Glove winners. Outfielders included George Hendricks, Angel Manguel, Reggie Jackson; C.)Offensively, from 1971-74, they scored over 700 runs once. D.) Rollie Fingers had about 20 saves per season while backing up Hunter. Some of those had to be for Blue, Holtzman, Odom, et. al
Hunter was on a great team. This is just my opinion...not trying to advance a statistical argument or challenge anybody who thinks other wise. I think Hunter was a primary reason why the A's were go good...maybe at the top of the list. Baseball-Reference lists him No. 1 on the team in 1974.
It's like the 1906-10 Cubs who were so good. There is some question about the Hall of Fame credentials of Tinkers, Evers and Chance. But the Cubs were so good that they had to have at least 1-2 Hall of Famers. Don't they? Brown maybe.
Again, not trying to challenge anybody. It's just the way I remember it. Hunter and Palmer were considered the two best pitchers in the AL at the time. But I could be wrong
Like "He's no Kevin Brown". Plus he's got nothing on Barry Zito and Mike Hampton.
Rank in DER from 1972-74: 2nd, 2nd, 2nd. Each year behind only the Orioles, who had probably the best defense ever with Brooks, Belanger, Grich, and Blair
C.)Offensively, from 1971-74, they scored over 700 runs once.
Rank in runs scored: 2nd, 1st, 3rd (7 runs behind first). Considering the time, 700 runs was a great offensive season. Some teams couldn't even score 500.
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