Mr. Di Perna, what you have just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Once we open this up to considering NPB play, then we can consider anything, and...

You're wrong, again. You not only consider NPB play, you consider the quality of NBP play, and whether the player had the option of complete movement, the same way your consider Negro Leaguers.

And I know that combining home runs -- or simply combining the stats from the two leagues -- is ok, because witness the fetish people had over Ichiro approaching a combined 4,000 hits, which was used as a HOF argument. Thus, as Matsui was a great player in Japan and a good player in the US, he gets my vote.

I used to think your obtuse reasoning in the political threads was simply in order to avoid admitting you were wrong, or to be a nuisance.

After this thread it's clear to me you simply do not know how to reason. Taking a silly argument and using it to justify your silly conclusion is... silly. Even in order to prove a point, which you have not done.

Please consult some elementary logic texts before posting again.

Let's stop being so damned earnest about the HOF rules. The HOF rules can be changed or ignored any time the HOF wishes, as it has proven on numerous occasions. The 10-year rule is silly, as there are any number of players without it -- Negro Leaguers mostly, but also Addie Joss. Incidentally, the HOF has decided it can elect Negro Leaguers simply based on the caliber of their play, with no other restrictions. There are several Negro Leaguers who don't have anything like 10 years in the "major" Negro Leagues of the day, guys who were in Cuba like Jose Mendez or kicking around in the Negro League equivalent of the Pacific Coast League. Also, the HOF can form special committees to elect overlooked groups of players whenever it wishes.

There's also a 5-year waiting period, but the HOF can suspend that rule whenever it wants, as well (Clemente, Lou Gehrig). The HOF can elect people as pioneers, even with otherwise undistinguished careers -- Candy Cummings, Tommy McCarthy. What are the criteria to making it as a pioneer, exactly? No one knows, because the HOF can basically make up any criteria it wants.

#150 I don't pretend to know about their respective fielding in Japan, I'm strictly going off what I saw on The Baseball Cube. It's normally a reliable source but has both playing 3b (with no fielding stats) in Japan.

OK, after poking around on thebaseballcube, it looks as though the position stuff is nonsense. Doug Jennings is also listed as a 3b for instance. Sorry to have ever brought it up.

"MLEs" for Matsui and Ichiro in Japan (I say "MLE" because I don't have park factors)

Ichiro
1994 162
1995 177
1996 155
1997 151
1998 148
1999 165
2000 169

Having trouble finding the stats for Troy Neel in Japan. Doug Jennings was a teammate for two years and put up "OPS" of 144 and 129. Neel was quite a bit more successful than Jennings.

All that to say that while in Japan, Suzuki probably wasn't as good a hitter as Troy Neel (at least not in Neel's best seasons. Suzuki has him in volume and consistency). This is of course not an insult. Neel could hit and Suzuki brought plenty more to the table than Neel.


Matsui
1993 109
1994 134
1995 131
1996 174
1997 169
1998 175
1999 178
2000 197
2001 195
2002 224

Took Matsui a while to find his stride (but he was all of 22 in 1996).

No really good comps for Matsui after he took that step forward. Jeff Manto spent part of a year there (and seems to have been pretty bad). Shane Mack was a teammate for years. Can't get his stats for some reason either.

Ron, as you know, guys like Tuffy Rhodes and Roberto Petagini also excelled in Japan.

Quoting some interesting snippets from a February 2002 article Clay wrote for BP. I imagine our idea of how the two leagues relate was much more primitive 10 years ago when he wrote this.

FWIW, Clay has Hideki Matsui as being a CF in Japan.

---------

...Ichiro's .310 EqA last year [rookie year in Seattle] was his second-worst since 1994. I think he changed his approach at the plate, concentrating on slapping the ball around without attempting to drive it. He got a boost to his batting average, but lost all his power. It would not surprise me at all to see him improve upon his MVP season. In another park, he'd have a realistic shot at hitting .400.

...Sticking with the Pacific League, last year's MVP was an American import who tied the Japanese home run record, Karl "Tuffy" Rhodes... In 1993, Rhodes split a .291 EqA while playing for Omaha (Double-A), Iowa (Triple-A), and the Cubs, easily his best American season. The average of these seasons isn't out of line for a player who had that level of talent at age 24, but the peaks are better than you'd expect.

...Alex Cabrera followed up a monstrous seasons in the U.S. minors by having one more just like it in Japan.

...Kazuo Matsui is not quite the caliber of hitter as some of the other players listed here, but he's a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop.

...The reigning MVP of the Central League, leading the league in home runs, RBI, and EQA, Roberto Petagine had a lot to do with the Swallows (am I the only one who can't say without at least thinking "beloved Swallows"? Longtime r.s.b readers will know what I mean) winning the title last season. I was suspicious of his hitting improvement and the small dimensions of Jingu Stadium, but 1) the park doesn't show as being offense-friendly, and 2) he only hit 15 of his 39 home runs in 2001 there, one less than expected given that 59 of his team's 140 games were there.

...AKA "Godzilla," or "Big Matsui" in contrast to Kazuo, "Little Matsui." Hideki Matsui was one of the most anticipated draft picks in Japanese history, and has lived up to the anticipation. For his consistency, I would name him the best native hitter in Japan right now. He's always had power, and has developed his other hitting skills to the point that he led the league in batting average last season, and was the league MVP in 2002. While he plays center field for the Giants, he would be a corner outfielder in the U.S.

...Daisuke Matsuzaka has played three years in Japan's major leagues, and has been named the league's best pitcher three times. He throws as hard as Ishii does, but from the right-hand side, and blew Ichiro away three times the first time they met. I also have to think he's a good candidate for arm trouble, given his age and workload.

Ron, You are confusing me. You mean OPS+, not MLE, right?

In 2002, Matsui hit 463/692 in Japan. Two years earlier, Jason Giambi hit 477/660 over here, and his OPS+ was "only" 199. Mark McGwire's big year (470/752) only earned him a 216 OPS+.

The MLE for Matsui's 2002 season should be a lot lower than 224.

Ron, as you know, guys like Tuffy Rhodes and Roberto Petagini also excelled in Japan.

Petagine: .317/.446/.633 career Japan
Tuffy: .289/.384/.535 career Japan

Petagine also OPS'd Tuffy in AAA by over 150 points

Petagine was a much better hitter than Tuffy- comparable to Hidecki Matsui- Rhodes was not

Clay wrote this in January 2002. Is it about true now? Clearly we have many more data points of players moving between both MLB/NPB and AAA/NPB (or other minor leagues and NPB).

Quoting:

In Baseball Prospectus 2001, I wrote that the difficulty level of Japan was "about even with the Triple-A leagues." Looking at it more comprehensively--I was basing my assessment on a scattering of players, rather than off a full list of Japanese player data--that was a silly thing to say, as the Japanese leagues have clearly and consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues. Every case from the 1990s shows that players do worse as a CPA-weighted-average group in Japan than they do in Triple-A, and by a considerable margin. The Triple-A/majors multiplier is .860; if the transitive property holds, then Japanese EqA is worth about .948 of a major-league EqA, which conveniently enough is almost identical to what we got from major leaguers.

Not sure whether that accounts for the specific fact that the cheap home run is easier to come by in Japan than at least MLB.

FWIW, Clay has Hideki Matsui as being a CF in Japan.

That's correct for the time. Matsui's primary position with Yomiuri was right field in 1993-1996, and center field in 1997-2002.

Below is BP's player comment on Ichiro before his first year in Seattle. The comparison to Damon kind of works, but kind of doesn't: Ichiro hit for higher averages but walked less; Ichiro hit fewer home runs but was better at running and stealing; Ichiro didn't play much CF but the quality/value of his defense and his arm was better.

Their batting styles weren't terribly far apart, as each hitter looked like he was slapping at the ball. At the end of the day, they end up as broadly comparable hitters by OPS+ -- though Ichiro has the clear edge there -- but Ichiro has the defense/arm/baserunning edges.

Quoting from BP 2001:

Ichiro Suzuki will be the first non-pitcher from the Japanese professional leagues to play in the majors. He begins the quest at the peak of his career, following seven consecutive Pacific League batting titles. Mariners’ owner Hiroshi Yamauchi made sure that Suzuki would get to play for his team of choice by submitting a $13.1-million bid to the Blue Wave merely for the rights to negotiate with him. Johnny Damon is the player most frequently mentioned when describing Suzuki; it’s a fair comparison.

It was a fair comment by BP. I don't think anyone predicted - did they? - the value that would subsequently show up in Ichiro's defense/running stats. Nor frankly the sheer number of infield hits, gotten by an at-times singularly focused approach to try for infield singles.

AROM yeah. Too much editing. Sorry for the confusion.

And #158 Ichiro was better than Tuffy Rhodes while the two were in Japan but it's not like he buried Rhodes. They can be sensibly compared

As I've said many times before, Ichiro's value in context doesn't blow me away, but at the same time there was good reason to expect him to be more successful than Matsui in America.

Also to #161, worth noting that WAR treats infield singles separately -- they're somewhat less valuable than a regular single. IOW WAR accounts for his unusual distribution of hits. (Sean roolz)

I'm glad someone posted this. Small sample size, I know, but it confirms the thought I've always had about Ichiro - despite being a superficially good looking baserunner, the man has trouble scoring runs.

OBPs over that same time period

A-Rod .358
Jeter .372
Ibanez .325
Cano .383
Granderson .270
Swisher .393
Chavez .368
Martin .327
Ichiro .340

Granderson and Ibanez, and Swisher and Cano look like the surprising ones in terms of the relationship between OBP and Runs per PA. I'd guess where you bat in the order influences things as well.