2007 Red Sox - Didn't have Pedro like you listed, but still had Schilling, Manny, and Papi

I also will enjoy watching Dustin Pedroia's career progress. Already has a ring and an MVP - if he adds a bunch of solid seasons with more All Star appearances and Gold Gloves, he has a good shot. Obviously not saying he's a lock - anything such as injuries can happen - but he does seem to be on the right trajectory.

Obviously not saying he's a lock - anything such as injuries can happen - but he does seem to be on the right trajectory.

I'm not sure I agree with that. He's put up some great seasons, but he's also going to be 29 and has only played 856 games. (For sake of comparison, but only insofar as giving perspective, Cano just had his age 29 season and he's played 1214 games.) The MVP is a nice boost, but he's only gotten MVP support in one other season ('11). We can of course debate phrases like "right trajectory" but if Pedroia falls victim to the early decline of 2B--and even if not--it seems a tough sell to say he'll earn election.

“And with Jack, people had to see the way he pitched to win. And when you get in the postseason, he was the best there was.”

Quotes like this don't hold up when you consider what they mean. Yeah, he was great in the 84 and 91 postseasons. Best best? As in nobody else could pitch in the postseason as well as he did?

Kirk Gibson won championships with Jack Morris and Orel Hershiser as his team's aces. Does Kirk really think that Hershiser wasn't as good as Morris?

That pre/post 29 list is a fun example of Hank Aaron's consistent domination. He (and basically nobody else) shows up on most of the pre- and post- lists for the major counting stats - except for games played! Sorta like Rickey being two hall of famers in one.

As others have suggested, it's unheard of to hit as well through age 29 as Cabrera has and not make the Hall of Fame: the only remotely relevant example is Sherry Magee, who played over 100 years ago and is in the HOM, anyway.

There are many HOFers who are similar to Pedroia through age 28, but by contrast, there are also quite a few who missed by wide margins – including Petrocelli and Garciaparra, to name examples close to home. Which doesn't contradict Moeball's well-qualified point, but puts it in perspective.

Incidentally, I had also forgotten Coco Crisp was on that Red Sox team. For a team that won a World Series relatively recently, they're awfully forgettable for me.

That was also the year the Red Sox had Eric Gagne. And Eric Hinske. And Bobby Kielty, who even got a hit in the World Series. I'm pretty sure I never knew he was on the team.

And 23 starts from Julian Tavarez.

Thomas will go in first ballot. Second ballot in a worst-case scenario.

Hm, coming onto an incredibly crowded ballot with Maddux, Glavine and Mussina does not bode well for even your worst-case scenario, IMO.

Worst-case scenario, nobody goes into the Hall of Fame in the next ten years except Greg Maddux and people born over 130 years ago.

people born over 130 years ago

Julio Franco is a lock.

Kirk Gibson won championships with Jack Morris and Orel Hershiser as his team's aces. Does Kirk really think that Hershiser wasn't as good as Morris?

I'd compare the two, but it would be embarrassing to Morris.

For a team that won a World Series relatively recently, they're awfully forgettable for me.
[...] And 23 starts from Julian Tavarez.

Oh come now, surely Julian Tavarez, with his Spring Training fisticuffs, porn star aspirations, and Ferengi face, must go in the "memorable" category.

As others have suggested, it's unheard of to hit as well through age 29 as Cabrera has and not make the Hall of Fame: the only remotely relevant example is Sherry Magee, who played over 100 years ago and is in the HOM, anyway

Again which supports my point of the HOF bias towards big whomping bats, despite their failings in every other aspect of the game.

And I wasn't saying that Miggy wouldn't likely be deserving of the HOF by his careers end, his consistent excellence at the plate is pretty amazing. I just find it sad that the standard criteria for the HOF is so simpleminded that he practically qualifies now, despite not being a top 5 first baseman of the past 2 decades.

Does Kirk really think that Hershiser wasn't as good as Morris?

He seems to.

Cabrera never should have driven in those runners in front of him.

I don't blame Miggy, I blame Henry Chadwick!

Yeah, he just made it to ten years, too. He has done everything a person needs for the BBWAA standards aside from longevity pretty much. MVP, Triple Crown, and a ring. Locked.

Even that is selling him short, since he has 2 batting titles, 2 home run titles, and 2 rings.

Assuming any sort of reasonable conclusion to his career, and he will be an easy BBWAA choice.

Worst-case scenario, nobody goes into the Hall of Fame in the next ten years except Greg Maddux and people born over 130 years ago.

Locks over the next eight years are Maddux, Griffey, Randy, Biggio, and Chipper. I imagine that Schilling, Smoltz, Pedro, and Glavine also go in fairly easily. Frank Thomas and Vlad should probably go in depending on their ballot situation, but I don't see anything keeping them out, and I think Irod will be the first player with "suspicion of PED" to go in.(Either Irod or Bagwell, longshot is Piazza as the first with 'taint' to go in)

I just find it sad that the standard criteria for the HOF is so simpleminded that he practically qualifies now, despite not being a top 5 first baseman of the past 2 decades.

1. There have been some really, really good first basemen in the last two decades. Even with that being stated, it's not yet clear that Cabrera won't make the top 5 in the group.

2. Cabrera hasn't spent his entire career at first base - a plurality of his games have been there, but not a majority. If he plays third all year again next year, he'll have spent more time there. He appears to be en route to a Harmon Killebrew-type career - kills the ball and can field any corner position at just-above-embarassment level.

Even that is selling him short, since he has 2 batting titles, 2 home run titles, and 2 rings.

You and I watched very different World Series this year.

So who's the best MLB player ever who didn't have some personality issues (from what we know)?
Gehrig and Mathewson are the two names that jump at me.

Honus Wagner and Walter Johnson appear to have been gentlemen as well.

Miggy HOF case is built entirely around the precise placement of accomplishments. Value in BA/SLG, not walks, or baserunning, or avoiding double plays, or defense. Hitting more HRs than anyone else in a year he had a ton of baserunners in front of him and gullible MVP voters hungry for a mythical triple crown.

Yeah, everybody knows that batting average and slugging and home runs never won no ballgames! And driving in all those runners? That's just rude!

Oh come now, surely Julian Tavarez, with his Spring Training fisticuffs, porn star aspirations, and Ferengi face, must go in the "memorable" category.

Tavarez himself was memorable, but I had suppressed the memory of him starting 23 games.

1. There have been some really, really good first basemen in the last two decades. Even with that being stated, it's not yet clear that Cabrera won't make the top 5 in the group.

Over the past 20 years, Miggy is 4th in ops+ among first baseman so on a rate stat, he is probably already there(of course no decline phase, but it's arguable he'll improve on his career ops+ over the next several years then decline to where he is at now) I think it's very likely that he will probably finish top five(past 30 years) when it's all said and done.

Few players increase their career OPS+ after the they turn 30. McGwire is the most notable exception, and he suffered through a long injury assisted decline during his late twenties. He also rebounded in his thirties to finish with a career 163 OPS+. Miggy ain't coming close to catching Big Mac in OPS+, and he's likely not moving up this list.

Player/Age 30 OPS+
McGwire/143
Thome/144
Clark/145
Berkman/146
Miggy/151
Bagwell/159
Votto/155
Pujols/174
Thomas/182

More importantly, OPS+ may be the single most misleading stat to measure Miggy by. It doesn't weight OBP properly, ignores the cost of his bad base running and defense, and all those extra outs he creates by hitting into double plays. And the difference it makes is profound.

- He drops to 6th in wRC+, and again that's at his peak. If he follows a normal aging curve he drops below Berkman and Thome, and possibly Giambi.
- The cost of his bad defense and base running means that Miggy has less fWAR than Keith Hernandez in almost the same number of games.
- Miggy is still 15th in fWAR among first basemen since 1980. If he plays 10 more years he should end up with 80 WAR, good for 3rd on this list and with maybe 200 more games than anyone else on it, and nearly a thousand games more than the list average.

That's going to be his entire argument, and its going to be a valid one, amazing hitter who made the HOF because he had such a long career it offset the cost of being bad at every other baseball skill.

Yeah, everybody knows that batting average and slugging and home runs never won no ballgames! And driving in all those runners? That's just rude!

If your point is that Miggy would be a great T-Ball player I agree. Rude is leading the league in hitting into double plays while helping deny Verlander the Cy Young by having the worst 3B range in baseball.

Yeah, everybody knows that batting average and slugging and home runs never won no ballgames! And driving in all those runners? That's just rude!

If your point is that Miggy would be a great T-Ball player I agree.

No, my point is you're being a jerk about this, trying to dismiss one of the best ballplayers of this generation as a "T-ball player". Please.

He drops to 6th in wRC+, and again that's at his peak.

You know, you might make your point better if weren't using stats that 99% of the public has never heard of. Hell, I'm a numbers fanatic and I don't know what the hell "wRC+" means. (Looks it up.) OK, fine. What's wrong with simple OPS+? Who are you trying to impress?

Rude is leading the league in hitting into double plays while helping deny Verlander the Cy Young by having the worst 3B range in baseball.

Yeah, I remember when Verlander tracked down Miggy with a shotgun, screaming, "That's the last Cy Young Award you'll cost me, Cabrera...!!"

Again, please.

while helping deny Verlander the Cy Young by having the worst 3B range in baseball.

Verlander pitched about 1/6 of Detroit's innings this year. DRS has Cabrera as a -4 third baseman; TotalZone has -9. If you average those, you'd project that Verlander allowed all of one extra run because Cabrera was playing third.

Don't buy that estimate? Give Cabrera the worst figure of his career, the -19 he posted in his last year at third in Florida according to DRS. Verlander has now allowed roughly three extra runs - maybe fewer, actually, because Verlander is a right-handed strikeout/fly ball pitcher, which isn't a type of pitcher famous for allowing huge numbers of grounders to third.

If you want to talk Verlander and awards, I'm willing to bet that Cabrera's 179 OPS+ had something to do with Verlander's 24-5 record last year, which won him not just the Cy but also the MVP.

Re: Pedroia. If I had to pick a 2B who would be slowed down by injuries as time moved along, he'd be it.

Yeah KT, I don't get the Cabrera hate. You talk about OPS+ not weighting OBP properly, which it does not, but Miggy has led the league in OBP twice and is at .395 for his career. He does not have a disproportionately slug-heavy OPS - he's not Ron Kittle or Tony Armas.

As for his defense, its nothing to crow about, but he led the league in POs this year, and was third in assists. You can't be a horrible 3b and do that.

He's not Pujols, but Pujols is the best 1B in NL history, so that's a tough comparison. If he has a normal decline phase, he will be a perfectly acceptable HOFer.

my point of the HOF bias towards big whomping bats

But the most comparable hitters to Cabrera, through age 29 (by OPS+ and PAs), are Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, and Ken Griffey Jr. Cabrera is not as good a fielder as any of them, granted. But this is not the slice of the HOF where you get in by hitting a few dingers (if there really is such a slice). Cabrera's is an elite level of hitting.

Miggy's age 29 comps are chock full o' Hall of Famers. Unless he falls apart like Juan Gone (or is caught with a naked bottle of andro), he's in.

If your point is that Miggy would be a great T-Ball player I agree. Rude is leading the league in hitting into double plays while helping deny Verlander the Cy Young by having the worst 3B range in baseball.

Cabrera is certainly on a HOF path. If he suffered spontaneous human combustion before Spring 2013, he'd probably still get in for his outstanding peak numbers. Enough voters love the triple crown numbers that Miggy specializes in, so I doubt a .318 batting average would be left out, especially when it comes with an average of 32 homers and 112 RBI per season. That and actually owning a rare triple crown.

He would not be a terrible selection, at 44 WAR he's already ahead of Jim Rice, and accumulated that total in less time. But he wouldn't be a great selection either. Compare him to Mark Teixiera, a fellow 2003 rookie.

Cabrera has played 15 more games, Tex has 1 more AB and 84 more PA. WAR is essentially even, 45-44 Tex. Tex has a few more homers and walks. Cabrera big edge in batting average, .318-.279, or 222 hits. Thanks to the BA, Cabrera is the better hitter in OBP, SLG, OPS+, while Tex makes up the value difference by being a better fielder and baserunner.

Despite their similar value, if Tex retired today he'd have no shot at all for the HOF. He may never be a very good candidate. Without unexpected retirements though, Cabrera is much more likely to solidify a future HOF case, since he's 3 years younger and still at his peak.