Man are you all ignoring how crowded the ballot is. On an empty ballot, I'd expect you're about right. Write out the actual ballot, and it looks like:
2013: -
2014: Maddux
2015: -
2016: -

A 75% cutoff and 10 vote max (and six vote typical) excludes basically everybody when there's 15-20 good candidates on the ballot. Look at this ballot 2015, imagine Maddux ain't on it, and try to get anyone in. It ain't happening.

Will Carroll and Keith Law have a while before they get a vote, so we don't have to worry about them eventually anti-moralizing.

In what universe is Will Carroll a statnerd? Remember this?

http://presscoverage.us/soapbox/the-geek-shall-inherit-on-baseball-bill-james-storytelling-the-simpsons/

Edit: holy crap will carroll is insane

In what universe is Will Carroll a statnerd? Remember this?

When he voted for Cy Young based upon some weird ass numbers that make voting Fip appear to be sane.



Will Carrol's Cy young ballot.

A 75% cutoff and 10 vote max (and six vote typical) excludes basically everybody when there's 15-20 good candidates on the ballot. Look at this ballot 2015, imagine Maddux ain't on it, and try to get anyone in. It ain't happening.

Not really. It's a 6 vote average. People who are going to vote for highly suspected roiders are more likely to put up a larger ballot. And even in a crowded ballot, there are some pretty clear choices.

2013 as mentioned is going to be the tough to predict, but after that there are a few obvious selections. Maddux and Griffey are going in first ballot, it wouldn't matter if the ballots were three times more crowded. Imagine if you were a voter, and you had a ballot, who would you vote for in each year and how likely is everyone else going to put those same names on the ballot.

Schilling probably makes it pretty easily, Glavine might take a year, Pedro should make it easily, but he also might take a year because of the silliness that is first ballot specialness. Randy goes in easily on his first ballot.

I'm happily looking forward to the ballot on which Carlos Delgado is the 23rd- or 27th-best pick.

#42 I think it's easy to demonstrate that the critical issue wasn't the gambling (actually Jackson wasn't gambling but everybody understands your basic point) but the fact that he was banned.

Nobody really disputes that Jackson was a greater player than Hal Chase, but Chase got significantly more support.

On the other hand, Chase rather than Jackson is support for the notion of gambling/character mattering. Tough for us to believe looking at his line on B-Ref, but Chase was a major star, and without the accusations by Mathewson, the eventual black listing by the NL (thanks to Heydlar's persistence there was finally actual evidence against him) and the ban from all parks by the PCL (a year after his black listing) I think it's pretty clear he'd have gone in at roughly the same time as Evers.