Bravo Chaz.

Beltran's at 62.3 WAR. His last three season were 3.6, 4.5 and .6 (in less than a half season). He'll be 36, So I think 3 WAR next year, 2.5 than 1.5 seems like a good bet. 70 WAR for his career. What's the highest WAR of a player not elected?

What's the highest WAR of a player not elected?

Of those players who have been truly rejected, Lou Whitaker at 71.4. Bonds is obviously on top, and Bagwell is also ahead, but the former hasn't been rejected at all yet and Bagwell is likely to get in sometime in the next few years. Neither seems like the answer to your question.

Of those players who have been truly rejected, Lou Whitaker at 71.4 (Bonds is obviously on top, and Bagwell is also ahead, but the former hasn't been rejected once and Bagwell is likely to get in sometime in the next few years).

Well for those not on the ballot, it's Pete Rose, 76.7.

Well for those not on the ballot, it's Pete Rose, 76.7.

And I think of him as similar to Bagwell and Bonds in that he's not the answer to the question viva's asking.

And I think of him as similar to Bagwell and Bonds in that he's not the answer to the question viva's asking.

So Lou Whitaker is the best player (by using WAR) not in the HOF among those who were eligible but no longer are? And he dropped off after 1 ballot? That's....something.

Edit: I know I'm late to the Whitaker party, but wow, that's really off. Whitaker is only getting about 8 wins from defense and 5 from baserunning, so his value shouldn't be that hard to see. Positional adjustments was likely part of it, but his raw numbers also don't look that great. How much of his value on offense came from park adjustments?

Edit: I know I'm late to the Whitaker party, but wow, that's really off. Whitaker is only getting about 8 wins from defense and 5 from baserunning, so his value shouldn't be that hard to see. Positional adjustments was likely part of it, but his raw numbers also don't look that great. How much of his value on offense came from park adjustments?

He was a great-hitting second baseman, who had a long career, and who drew a ton of walks. And he basically played his whole career immediately prior to the sillyball era.

He was an All-Star for five straight seasons from 83-87, and then basically played just as well for six or seven straight years after that - except that he stopped playing everyday. His WAR/per162 actually went UP after he stopped being an All-Star.

He was a great-hitting second baseman, who had a long career, and who drew a ton of walks. And he basically played his whole career immediately prior to the sillyball era.

I think the last three points are probably a large part of it. He doesn't look like a great hitter, though, with a raw career line of .276/.363/.426. That's why I was asking about the park, which is probably part of it as well.

Wow, Whitaker had 18 full seasons and at least a 100 OPS+ in 16 of them. That's amazing from someone who only had a 117 OPS+ for his career. I guess his problem was that he was too consistent and never had a MVP quality year. Kind of like Palmiero.

I think the last three points are probably a large part of it. He doesn't look like a great hitter, though, with a raw career line of .276/.363/.426. That's why I was asking about the park, which is probably part of it as well.

Just eyeballing PF's for the years of his career, doesn't look like it hurt him much. Detroit was right around average most of the time. Slightly under occasionally, but not really enough to make much difference.
.789 OPs doesn't lok hugely impressive, but when the average 2B can't sniff a .700, it is really damn good. It really depends what you are expecting though. 2B tend to get the shaft from the writers, as they don't get the defensive allowances they seem to make for SS/CF, and their offensive numbers can't compare with corner sluggers.

Also Whitaker really has no peak whatsoever. It's mostly just a really long string of 4 win seasons:

Black Ink Batting - 1 (743), Average HOFer ? 27
Gray Ink Batting - 31 (770), Average HOFer ? 144

.

Gainers?
16.9% : Tim Raines 48.7% to 65.6%

I'm impressed with the BBWAA in spite of myself. I really thought they might screw the pooch when it came to Raines.

Beltran's at 62.3 WAR. His last three season were 3.6, 4.5 and .6 (in less than a half season). He'll be 36, So I think 3 WAR next year, 2.5 than 1.5 seems like a good bet. 70 WAR for his career. What's the highest WAR of a player not elected?

That's been answered, but one note about his performance in the last couple of years that's encouraging wrt Beltran's longevity is, despite the surgery, that he's held his own in RF. His arm plays there, and by my eye and by the numbers he's a perfectly cromulent fielder. Meaning that he's still got the corners and 1B to play in, which bodes well for his longevity.

I think he'd be stretched in CF, and with his injury history it's exactly the kind of move that could end his career. I understand why the Cards sent him out there for the equivalent of five games in 2012, but they should resist it if they can.

So Lou Whitaker is the best player (by using WAR) not in the HOF among those who were eligible but no longer are? And he dropped off after 1 ballot? That's....something.

That it is. Guess it doesn't bode well for Beltran. Having made the case for him on the previous page, I suppose I should note the obverse here. He made only 7 All-Star games, not terrible but not all that impressive for a HOFer. The 3 GGs are consistent with my impression of him as a fine but not superb fielder, and while that may not hurt his case, it sure doesn't help him any.

Literally one point of black ink may not be a death knell, but is there a HOFer with less (I think there is, but can't recall whom)? Like Whitaker, Beltran gets his value all over the place. He picks up pieces here and there, without any signature accomplishment, AND he plays a position that historically been tougher to get in through.

It's heartening, how quickly Raines is moving towards 75%. You can play around with Beltran's case and see how he's comparable to Raines. Beltran being a fine CFer is presumably a plus for the voters over Raines being a better fielder at a less important position, but they don't distinguish as much as they should between CF and the corners. Raines has the higher number of SBs, but less power. Raines had the runs scored, but Beltran was as much an RBI guy as he was a run scorer...

Maybe it's silly to compare Beltran to Raines, but I'm having trouble finding a good comp in CF for Beltran. Maybe Edmonds? Jimmy was a comparative monster as a hitter, and by reputation a better fielder. As of the end of 2012 Beltran still had 100 games to go before catching Edmonds (but 400 more PAs). If Edmonds isn't considered a HOFer by the bulk of the MSM, I don't see how Beltran will be.

Another cause for concern for Beltran's case (unless he has another 500-600 productive PAs in him) is how far Larry Walker is from election. Take Walker completely out of Coors, throw away all his Coors numbers, and his OPS is still a hair better than Beltran's, with an overall career that's about as long. Granted, Walker's a RFer, but he has 7 GGs there and iirc was considered a better fielder than Beltran, for their positions. Walker also has the MVP, but isn't pulling as much as 15% of the vote this year.

Oof. I've been underestimating Walker for a long time, and found the arguments in his favor a little too contemptuous of concerns over how much Coors inflated his stats, but the comparison with Beltran really does put Walker in a good light.

I do think Beltran will go in (and go in pretty easily) if he gets his numbers up to 400 HRs and 1500 RBIs and runs scored (is that too obvious to bother noting? With the BBWAA conceivably voting in only Jack Morris this year I'm not sure what is and isn't obvious), but if he's much short of that, maybe even 70 WAR won't get him all that close. It's not difficult to imagine Beltran getting to, say 360 home runs, and 1375 RBIs and runs scored and never really getting the momentum in the voting that other worthy guys never got; guys like D. Evans, Walker, Edmonds, Jimmy Wynn, Whitaker...

edit: "Also Whitaker really has no peak whatsoever. It's mostly just a really long string of 4 win seasons:"

Beltran does have his 8 win season (which only got him to 4th in the MVP voting), but otherwise he's comparable to Lou, with four seasons of 5 or 6 wins, and those spread out, at that.
.

Raines I feared would get the Whittaker treatment due to his not being an obvious candidate by traditional measures (no 3000 hits, didn't win an MVP, viewed as a 'Rickey Light" by many). Luckily enough voters remembered the signature moments (amazing first game after being screwed over by the owners collusion, amazing All-Star game that same year, being one of the most feared players in the NL for years due to his ability to win a game in many ways) instead of the years as a backup (after 1992 played 9 years with a max of 133 games, 5 years sub 100). Luckily some people starting pushing for him early, pointing out how Raines got on base as often as Tony Gwynn but just did it differently (walks more often instead of singles) and that as a leadoff hitter it didn't matter as much how he got on. Luckily an argument that seems to be selling.

FYI: to stick for the next ballot (5%) you need roughly 30 votes, thus anyone over 43% is safe for next year even if every last voter left ignores them. Given roughly 125-150 ballots will probably be found (given historical trends) that means 20%-24% will lock it in. Statistically anyone over 17% is a safe bet now, by the end it'll be around 12-13% to be a lock.

being one of the most feared players in the NL for years

He's the Jim Rice of the National League! :)

He was an All-Star for five straight seasons from 83-87, and then basically played just as well for six or seven straight years after that - except that he stopped playing everyday. His WAR/per162 actually went UP after he stopped being an All-Star.

The last few years of his career, Whitaker became a platoon player. That would artificially inflate his rate stats.

T.J. - so true! However, unlike Rice, Raines was worthy of the HOF yet is still out. Interesting to compare the two in voting...
Rice: 29.8-35.3-37.6-42.9-29.4-51.5-57.9-55.1-52.2-54.5-59.5-64.8-63.5-72.2-76.4
Raines: 24.3-22.6-30.4-37.5-48.7-64.8 (as of 71 ballots)

Rice had a big drop in year 5, and a minor drop in each of 8/9 before his climb to the top. The big drop was the Ryan/Brett/Yount/Fisk ballot with Dale Murphy also (and for Jay fans, George Bell who got 6 votes). I was certain Raines would see the same this year as Rice in year 5 but it doesn't appear to be the case, in fact if early numbers hold he'll have a big jump this year instead.

FYI: Rice's other two drops were due to Ozzie Smith, Andre Dawson, and Alan Trammell (to a small degree) then the following year Eddie Murray, Ryan Sandberg & Lee Smith. Strong classes but nothing compared to this year. I wonder if Raines is a big winner of the PED ballot due to a (bizarre) view that fast players didn't use (despite the proven benefits in track and field) thus writers are voting for him as a 'screw PED users' vote.

I'm impressed with the BBWAA in spite of myself. I really thought they might screw the pooch when it came to Raines.

Who took the biggest cocaine penalty (in terms of production) with respect to the Hall of Fame? It doesn't seem like Raines or Hernandez lost much career production. I'm guessing it would be one of Parker, Gooden, Strawberry or Blue -- is there someone else who would be a likely Hall of Famer but got badly disrupted by cocaine and hasn't made it?

Rice had a big drop in year 5, and a minor drop in each of 8/9 before his climb to the top. The big drop was the Ryan/Brett/Yount/Fisk ballot with Dale Murphy also (and for Jay fans, George Bell who got 6 votes). I was certain Raines would see the same this year as Rice in year 5 but it doesn't appear to be the case, in fact if early numbers hold he'll have a big jump this year instead.

Raines' Repoz count figures (particularly earlier in the count) outpoll his final numbers more than just about anyone else. He has been making progress (and last year's numbers were particularly encouraging), but he's not likely to hold all of the gains he shows here. Still, considering this year's ballot, if he makes any gains at all this year, or even just holds steady, that's a really good sign for his eventual induction.

Hold on, shouldn't this be the 2013 ballot collecting gizmo. I know it's still 2012 to us but it is the 2013 ballot.

There is a .05% margin of error in the name.

Votes/ballot still seems to be holding steady at ~6.8 per.

Any way to determine the Biggio-Bagwell distribution? Is it just three guys who didn't put Bags on with Biggio or is it a more complicated situation than that??

re: black ink and the Hall....

Mike Piazza: Zero. Led league in GIDP once. And never won an MVP award. A bazillion grey ink tho :)

Lou = Bpobby Grich, and at least Grich had more of a peak plus he was in the playoffs 5 times. Sweet Lou suffered like all other well-rounded players suffer; the agony of not having one Single Skill by which they become famous.

Same question as Don M in relation to Clemens/Bonds. Is it 1 voter with Clemens but not Bonds, or are there Bonds but not Clemens voters out there? If the former, who is the voter?

Based upon last year's hits and misses, no entries into the Hall at this time.

70.2 - Biggio n/a
67.6 - Bagwell n/a
63.5 - Raines - 4% = 59.5%
63.5 - Piazza n/a
62.2 - J. Morris + 8% = 70.2%
48.6 - Clemens n/a
47.3 - Bonds n/a
36.5 - Trammell n/a
35.1 - L. Smith + 6% = 41.1%
35.1 - Schilling n/a
31.1 - E. Martinez + 4% = 35.1%
18.9 - D. Murphy n/a
17.6 - McGriff n/a
17.6 - McGwire n/a
16.2 - Raffy n/a
13.5 - L. Walker + 5% = 18.5%
13.5 - S. Sosa n/a
6.8 - Mattingly + 7% = 13.8%
———————————
2.7 - D. Wells n/a
2.7 - Bernie Williams + 6% = 8.7%
2.7 - Lofton n/a
2.7 - P. Rose (goofy write-in)

TomH: Wow, I didn't notice that Piazza never won a HR title or any other title that counts for black ink. Twice led in OPS+ (1995/1997), twice was 2nd in MVP, 4th is the best for HR total surprisingly enough and the same for RBI's. 3rd for hits one year, and something I laughed at - 6th in defensive rWAR (1993).

HOF ballot: Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Martinez, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Trammell, Walker.

I'd sub McGwire for Martinez but otherwise, this would be my ballot. If there were room for 11 names, I would add Palmeiro, but I would keep Martinez on the "just out" list.

67.6 - Bagwell n/a

Bagwell was almost flat from the final Repoz to the actual count.

As noted, these +/- figures have considerable variance from year to year. Jack was 8 percent better in the actual than the final Repoz figure, but that wasn't consistent with previous years.

Repoz,

Not sure if you got this, but Henry Schulman confirmed with me that he did end up voting for Biggio.

The sporting news released some ballots today. I'd link them,but I'm posting from my phone right now.

Three Sporting News ballots break: 2 each for Bagwell, Biggio, Morris, Paizza, Schilling, 1 each for Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Palmeiro, Sosa, Trammell, Mattingly, Smith, Raines.

no entries into the Hall at this time

There's a guaranteed entry already - Deacon White. I'm not sure his grandkids are still alive but he's a good choice.

It would be a damn shame if Wells and Lofton fell off the ballot. Not sure that either belongs in, but both deserve serious consideration in a non-flooded year.

Bob Hille, deputy editor: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell
Garry D. Howard, editor-in-chief: Don Mattingly, Jack Morris, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith
Stan McNeal, national baseball writer:Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schillng

How astonishingly bad is that Howard vote? Schilling is pretty much the only good thing about it. I'm predicting the attendance at this year's ceremony will be a record breaking low thanks to guys like Howard.

How could someone who seems to not know much about the guys on the HOF ballot be the editor-in-chief of The Sporting News? I mean, come on, 3 guys who are not in the top dozen of this ballot while ignoring pre-PED era greats Tim Raines, Alan Trammell, and even someone better than the 3 he picked in Dale Murphy? He literally picked the 3 lowest in WAR guys who returned to the ballot, 3 of the 4 worst by WAR7 (McGriff is below Mattingly), the 3 worst by JAWS, 3 of the 4 worst by Bill James HOF Career Standards (Murphy is worse than Morris). If he was trying to put together as poor a ballot as possible without voting for new guys he sure did it (not factoring in Schilling).

People, people, again I must remind you that despite one or two problematic ballots here or there, we can still respect the consensus.

nfw

TomH: Wow, I didn't notice that Piazza never won a HR title or any other title that counts for black ink. Twice led in OPS+ (1995/1997), twice was 2nd in MVP, 4th is the best for HR total surprisingly enough and the same for RBI's. 3rd for hits one year, and something I laughed at - 6th in defensive rWAR (1993).

You know what's wacky, though? Piazza for his career, as a hitter, is Mark Teixiera in Teixiera's prime; the prime that resulted in Teix getting his 8/175 deal from the Yankees.

That's how freaking good Piazza was.

Something's not right with Trammell's percent. When there's only 75 votes, there can't be two candidates within 0.6 points of each other. Unless someone gave Trammell half a vote?

I'm sure it's already been stated on this thread but it would be a real shame if Lofton becomes a one-and-done.

Second the question on Bonds/Clemens. How they aren't identical - obviously in on career and then x% won't vote for them because of steriods - I'd like to know.

He's the Jim Rice of the National League! :)

Now that Dave Parker is off the ballot I guess he can take over that title.

Listen and you can hear Cooperstown praying Biggio, Morris, Bagwell anyone gets over 75%.

Looking at the projections, it looks like there could be 5 players who end up in the 65-75% range. Anyone think it may be possible to have a class of 8 in 2014? Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Biggio & Piazza (gain from writers withholding them from first year induction), Bagwell & Raines (ballot momentum), and Morris (15th year bump). That would probably be the greatest class since the very first one. I'm trying to put a more positive spin on no one getting 75% this year.

Second the question on Bonds/Clemens. How they aren't identical - obviously in on career and then x% won't vote for them because of steriods - I'd like to know.

Well, if I were a person who cared about steroids and not in a "keep all the bums out" kind of way, I could almost fathom voting for Clemens and not Bonds based on the idea that Bonds has at least sort of admitted that he took something but didn't know what it was and was convicted on the one count of obstructing justice while Clemens wasn't convicted of anything and has denied everything.

On the other hand, going the other way, the only thing I can think of is that someone might ding Clemens for throwing the bat at Piazza or getting himself thrown out of a playoff game, or some personal grudge.

Well, if I were a person who cared about steroids and not in a "keep all the bums out" kind of way, I could almost fathom voting for Clemens and not Bonds based on the idea that Bonds has at least sort of admitted that he took something but didn't know what it was and was convicted on the one count of obstructing justice while Clemens wasn't convicted of anything and has denied everything.

Conversely, I could envision a writer giving Bonds credit for sort of confessing while Clemens gets dinged for lying in the face of "obvious proof."

I wonder if Raines is a big winner of the PED ballot due to a (bizarre) view that fast players didn't use (despite the proven benefits in track and field) thus writers are voting for him as a 'screw PED users' vote.

I was kinda thinking the same thing. The steroid hysteria may actually help someone like Raines; for the hardliners who don't want to vote for any of the bulky 90's sluggers who even might have used PED's, a little guy who peaked in the 80's rather than the 90's and who accrued most of his value through speed rather than power seems like the perfect alternative.

I though Trammell might get a similar bump - especially since a very similar player in Larkin was elected just last year - but it hasn't happened. Ah, well. Still glad to see Rock getting some recognition.

Egads.

If the voters look at this ballot and decide only jack morris belongs, it is officially time to dump them. Cooperstown should be embarrassed.

142. sharkbites Posted: January 01, 2013 at 12:34 PM (#4335857)
Looking at the projections, it looks like there could be 5 players who end up in the 65-75% range. Anyone think it may be possible to have a class of 8 in 2014? Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Biggio & Piazza (gain from writers withholding them from first year induction), Bagwell & Raines (ballot momentum), and Morris (15th year bump). That would probably be the greatest class since the very first one. I'm trying to put a more positive spin on no one getting 75% this year.

No chance that with all the overwhelmingly qualified candidates that anywhere near 8 could get 75%. If none get in this year then next year just gets tougher to get agreement.

I don't think anyone has posted Jose de Jesus Ortiz' ballot yet:

Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Lee Smith and Sammy Sosa.

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I think Maddux will be the only one that gets elected in 2014. Sportswriters really do seem to be that stupid.

Glavine: Can't let him in, he wasn't even the best pitcher on his own team.
Thomas: Built like he used steroids.
Bagwell: See Thomas.
Biggio: Played with Bagwell. Guilt by association.
Piazza: Lousy WAR. And bacne is icky.
Raines: He wasn't Rickey Henderson.
Morris: Ok, you got me. Maddux and Morris.

Roch Kubatko:

I'm including Bagwell, who attracts suspicion but has never failed a test, never been on trial. My ballot, which must be mailed by Monday, also includes Biggio, Martinez (yes, despite the fact that he was primarily a designated hitter), McGriff, Morris, Murphy, Raines, Smith and Trammel.

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