EDIT: Roger Clemens age-based similar players (through age 33)

Sim         Player From   To Yrs  WAR   W   L  WL%  ERA   G  GS GF  CG SHO SV     IP    H    R   ER  HR  BB   SO ERA+
     Roger Clemens 1984-1996  13 77.8 192 111 .634 3.06 383 382  0 100  38  0 2776.0 2359 1045  943 194 856 2590  144 
944  Dwight Gooden 1984-1998  14 50.1 185 103 .642 3.33 377 374  1  68  24  1 2580.7 2318 1044  956 169 843 2150  113 
919      Bob Welch 1978-1990  13 39.6 176 109 .618 3.16 396 371 16  54  27  8 2513.0 2273  981  882 194 801 1714  114 
907    Tom Glavine 1987-1999  13 49.2 187 116 .617 3.38 399 399  0  45  18  0 2659.7 2529 1110 1000 178 900 1659  120 
904*    Bob Gibson 1959-1969  11 58.4 167 110 .603 2.76 349 311 17 166  42  4 2522.7 2061  882  774 170 861 2119  134 
903*    Tom Seaver 1967-1978  12 83.9 219 127 .633 2.51 423 417  5 188  47  1 3239.7 2568  991  905 232 888 2756  139 
894    Lon Warneke 1930-1942  13 43.8 188 115 .620 3.18 415 332 55 188  30 13 2680.0 2628 1115  947 172 720 1104  120 
894    Greg Maddux 1986-1999  14 74.1 221 126 .637 2.81 436 432  3  93  28  0 3068.7 2761 1104  959 157 691 2160  144 
889    Jack Morris 1977-1988  12 34.3 177 118 .600 3.59 370 348 10 133  21  0 2622.7 2347 1136 1045 272 930 1703  112 
888   Mike Mussina 1991-2002  12 56.2 182 102 .641 3.54 355 355  0  51  20  0 2454.0 2305 1026  966 257 557 1931  128 
887 Pedro Martinez 1992-2005  14 79.1 197  84 .701 2.72 419 352 23  46  17  3 2513.0 1905  835  759 194 662 2861  166 

Once the full ESPN guys come in, is this going to be the most votes run through the Gizmo? It's already exceeded last year's total.

Edit: Oh, and Bob, if you can throw a quick return in there before Gibby in the next six minutes, the next 98 posters would surely appreciate it.

Bad juju to break a page with the first comment...

Whew!

MLB.com seems to have a personal vendetta against Schilling. One vote in 16 ballots.

Masserotti HOF ballot from Boston Herald: Martinez, Bonds, Clemens---check the video

http://www.csnne.com/baseball-boston-redsox/redsox-talk/One-mans-PED-free-Hall-of-Fame-ballot?blockID=821323&feedID=10430

Jeff Blair has been a bit odd on his choices. He has said he is a small hall guy in the past and no question Bonds, Clemens, and Piazza fit most definitions small hall guys could have. Raines and Walker I think are more a pro-Canada bias (Raines as an Expo, Walker as an actual Canadian) as both were great and HOF worthy but neither fit a small hall (IE: top 5 or so per position) imo. Still, hate to see any ballot without Biggio as he is the best hope to get someone elected.

Boston Globe writers votes:

Peter Abraham: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilng, Alan Trammell.
Nick Cafardo: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell.
Dan Shaughnessy: Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell.
Bob Ryan: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling.

Shaughnessy votes for Schilling. The mind boggles.

Fingers also had a lot going for him--the MVP/CYA, 3 WS titles, a 1.35 ERA in 33 WS IP, a cool name, a sweet 'stache--that Smith doesn't.

Gossage and Morris had the stache.

At 151 we are below the +/-7% level now (6.85%), so with Biggio at 68.2% his statistical 19 times out of 20 max is now 75.05% or just barely over the line as a best case. Morris, even if you double the margin would be marginal now at 62.9%, double = 13.7%, so max of 76.6% if you figure a very, very strong bias. IMO that is too much to assume so I'd bet strongly on no one getting in.

My hope now is to see Raines, Bagwell and Piazza over 60% thus upping the odds of a bandwagon effect for them. Also to see Morris go down sub-60% so we don't have to think too much about him next year.

Did everyone see Wallace Matthews' ballot? Not that I recommend reading his drivel, but at least he voted for Biggio and Piazza.

Matthews has turned in one of my favorite rationalizations.

I won't vote for cheaters.
Cheaters are bad.
People who took steroids to get a strength/health advantage are cheaters.
No to cheaters.

I vote for the guy who measures only 1.04 Altuves but had a 60% jump in home runs at age 38 which he improved on at age 39, plus one of the two guys we 100% for sure know took steroids to get on the field faster and stronger because we saw him canonized for it on national TV in the Bloody Sock Battle Of Twenty Aught Four, and Mike Piazza.

Dan Shaughnessy: Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell.

Shaughnessy wrote after Clemens left Boston in 1996 that Clemens needed "four more good years" to make the Hall.

("edit"/"save" doesn't seem to be taking for some reason...)

Another Boston Globe writer: Tony Massarotti: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez.

Bill Madden:

And yet [Biggio] may well be denied by having played in the steroids era, and by association with his Houston Astros teammates Jeff Bagwell and Clemens. Bagwell, like Piazza, never tested positive for steroids, was never named in the Mitchell Report and has vehemently and repeatedly denied ever using PEDs. Yet he continues to be a steroid suspect, which explains why, despite a .297 career average, 449 homers and eight 100-run and 100-RBI seasons, he was well shy of election at 56% last year.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/madden-hall-fame-facing-havoc-peds-article-1.1236097#ixzz2HS6wwdOE

What a hoot. I've heard of guilt by association, but usually the party being associated with is itself guilty. Here, we have guilt by association with Bagwell, who himself is guilty by association with the Steroids Era.

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel HOF ballots


Tom Haudricourt: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa.

Michael Hunt: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds.

Mike Hart: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell

Bill Windler: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell.

Jim Alexander, California Press Democrat said he refused to vote for anyone in the steroid era. So here is his ballot:

Morris, Raines, Trammell, Smith

Relive the 80s much??

Alexander's ballot:

– Jack Morris, who doesn’t get much love from the numbers crowd but was the guy you most wanted pitching a big game. (And that’s not just me talking. That’s players and managers of the era.)

– Tim Raines, whose skills at getting on base and stealing bases (he’s fifth on the all time list with 808) were underappreciated for way too many years.

(And yes, I know Raines was one of those who battled a cocaine addiction early in his career. He was hardly alone in early ’80s baseball, and he did clean himself up. But it brings up another question: Do you give guys who used coke a pass and come down on guys who used steroids and HGH because those had more influence on the game on the field? Or do you say recreational drug use had its own insidious effect on the game? Again, I’m having trouble with that distinction.)

– Alan Trammell, another player who has been horrendously underappreciated. If you voted for Barry Larkin, which I did, and you look at Trammell’s numbers, how do you leave him off?

– Lee Smith, the all-time leader in saves. Say what you want about the “save” statistic, but Smith’s durability, consistency and dominance pass my eyeball test.

As for Bonds, Clemens and the rest? Come back next year. Maybe by then I’ll have figured this out.

All 50+ WAR guys who were one and done (excluding those banned from baseball):

Jack Clark - 50.1 WAR, 1.5% in 1998.
Ron Cey - 50.4 WAR, 1.9% in 1993.
Jose Cruz - 51 WAR, 0.4% in 1994.
Chet Lemon - 52 WAR, 0.2% in 1996.
Robin Ventura - 52.3 WAR, 1.3% in 2010.
Jimmy Wynn - 53.1 WAR, 0.0% in 1983.
Will Clark - 53.2 WAR, 4.4% in 2006.
John Olerud - 53.7 WAR, 0.7% in 2011.
Darrell Evans - 55.1 WAR, 1.7% in 1995.
Willie Davis - 56.8 WAR, 0.0% in 1985 (didn't even appear on ballot).
Sal Bando -57.1 WAR, 0.7% in 1987.
Jack Glasscock - 59.2 WAR, 2.6% in 1936.
Reggie Smith - 60.8 WAR, 0.7% in 1988.
Buddy Bell - 61.6 WAR, 1.7% in 1995.
Willie Randolph - 63.0 WAR, 1.1% in 1998.
Bobby Grich - 67.3 WAR, 2.6% in 1992.
Lou Whitaker - 71.4 WAR, 2.9% in 2001.

Pitchers (just including pitching WAR):

Jack Powell - 51.3 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Kevin Appier - 51.9 WAR, 0.2% in 2010.
Frank Tanana - 52.6 WAR, 0.0% in 1999.
Jerry Koosman - 53.1 WAR, 0.9% in 1991.
Dave Stieb - 53.5 WAR, 1.4% in 2004.
Chuck Finley - 54.3 WAR, 0.2% in 2008.
Tony Mullane - 55.1 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Bret Saberhagen - 56.0 WAR, 1.3% in 2007.
Charlie Buffinton - 57.1 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
David Cone - 58.2 WAR, 3.9% in 2009.
Tommy Bond - 60.8 WAR, 1.3% in 1936.
Kevin Brown - 64.5 WAR, 2.1% in 2011.
Rick Reuschel - 64.6 WAR, 0.4% in 1997.
Bobby Mathews - 65.6 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Jim McCormick - 72.2 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).

Michael Hunt: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds.

Mike Hunt has a neatly trimmed ballot.

Bill Windler: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell.

That's just about a perfect ballot for me. I can't immediately think of anyone I'd replace on it.

That's just about a perfect ballot for me. I can't immediately think of anyone I'd replace on it.

IIRC, Poz's ballot this year had Walker, not McGwire.

What about 1996 (i.e., the last time no one went in)? The only eventual Hall of Famers on the ballot at that time were:
Niekro
Perez
Rice
Sutter
Sutton

Right there, you've got Niekro, who IMHO clearly belongs in, but does have just a 115 ERA+ (hampered by a long decline phase) and can be viewed as a compiler--plus four other guys who are pretty clearly near the HOF cutoff in my view. Among others on the ballot that year were Ron Santo and Dick Allen--who may belong in the HOF, but are not no-doubters.

It's not hard for me to see how a reasonable voter could have sent in a blank ballot that year. That, of course, is not THIS year.

Nice research, but it would be more impressive if you'd actually found someone who'd turned in a blank ballot in '96. I don't think very many folks were thinking about "compilers" at that point in time; that term didn't come into vogue until there was a more organized HOM effort. One of the math whizzes here could probably calculate the odds of a blank ballot in that year with the three guys scoring in the 60s and the low overall vote/ballot...it might actually work AGAINST the idea of a blank ballot. Whereas if you get rid of the blank ballots we're going to have this time, the vote/ballot total will be the highest since the early 80s, and the increase from '12 to '13 in terms of vote/ballot will be at least as high as it was from '98 to '99 (when Ryan, Brett, Yount and Fisk all debuted).

My prediction:

As a Tim Raines fan, I'm tentatively pleased with how this is going so far (won't be this year, but he's moving in the right direction).

Piazza under 60% is absurd.

Okay:

Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it? Such that Biggio or Morris gets in?

What time zone is Repoz in?

Hoboken 1982

There's no fudging, this is not the Rock and Roll Hall Of Fame.

– Lee Smith, the all-time leader in saves. Say what you want about the “save” statistic, but Smith’s durability, consistency and dominance pass my eyeball test.

This comment will likely be recycled for both Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.

There's no fudging, this is not the Rock and Roll Hall Of Fame.

They may have finally inducted Rush, but I'm not taking the R 'n R HOF seriously until Vanilla Fudge gets their due.

Okay:

Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it? Such that Biggio or Morris gets in?

As much as I want people to be elected, it will be a bit funny to watch the poor HOF representative appear on MLB Network to announce the results and then try to plead people to attend an induction ceremony that will honor three people who died before World War II. I honestly think that anyone who is a first-timer on the ballot this year who gets elected subsequently should devote a good portion of their speech to lambasting the BBWAA. You know, cut a heel wrestling promo, basically. Yea, I know, that's not in the spirit of the HOF. But it has been done before. I believe Bill James said that Earl Averill did so, and that was in the 70's.

Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it? Such that Biggio or Morris gets in?

I will give a .37% chance that, if there is something like 10 times as many blank ballots as usual, they may say that they are disregarding blank ballots since they have obviously been filed in protest, not as legit votes ... assuming that would push somebody over the line.

But, really, too risky. It's one year ... again, if the HoF and Cooperstown can't survive one non-induction summer, they're financially doomed anyway. One would imagine that if the damage done by a non-induction was so high, they'd have changed things already (they've had several years of pretty dicey elections and folks have been talking about ballotgeddon for at least 2-3 years). Why would they take the massive risk of cheating(!) this year when they could just change the rules to "top vote getter" from now on or even announce that this year's ballot will result in a special run-off election among the top 5.

Or maybe they faked the moon landing in 2010 with Dawson's suspicious 77.9% and 2006 with Sutter's 76.9%. Hmmmm ... I sense a theme. Somehow Sosa is going to end up with 75.4% of the vote.

Somehow Sosa is going to end up with 75.4% of the vote.

Corked ballots.

Tom Verducci has spoken!!! His HOF ballot: Bagwell, Biggio, Schilling, McGriff, Raines, Morris

Biggio is picking up some momentum. Not likely he'll hit 75% but keeping my fingers crossed.

Nice research, but it would be more impressive if you'd actually found someone who'd turned in a blank ballot in '96.

There were a handful of blank ballots being submitted back then. Tom Seaver was dinged down to 98.8% by three of them in 1992. However, the 1980s/90s blanks were protest ballots over Pete Rose's ineligibility, not a blanket rejection of a set of candidates or an era.

At 151 we are below the +/-7% level now (6.85%), so with Biggio at 68.2% his statistical 19 times out of 20 max is now 75.05% or just barely over the line as a best case. Morris, even if you double the margin would be marginal now at 62.9%, double = 13.7%, so max of 76.6% if you figure a very, very strong bias. IMO that is too much to assume so I'd bet strongly on no one getting in.

You are assuming that this sample is representative. Anecdotally, it seems it is anything but. Most of the remaining votes are from people who no longer have a regular baseball writing outlet, so we should expect even more wackiness in that group.

Checked to see if Bob Elliott's (Toronto Sun) has been added but didn't see it. Here it is: Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Fred McGriff, with 493 homers, Morris, Murphy, Piazza, Raines, Trammell and Walker.

Honkie Kong - I've put that disclaimer, that the sample is not a truly random one, on my past posts but forgot that time. The thing is that last years numbers actually landed in the range with only one exception (Morris) and he was off by less than 1% point. While not a purely random sample it is close enough that the general rule of thumb will apply unless there is a strong reason for the last batch to do something odd. At 170 now we are up to +/- 6.3% so even if it was a strongly biased group against Morris leading to a doubling of that error he'd now be well shy (73.2%) so I feel very safe saying he has no chance. In fact, for Morris (or Raines as they are tied) to make it he'd need 81.1% of the remaining votes which I doubt anyone sees as possible. Biggio is at a need for 76.9% which is possible but not easy (requires old guard to be strongly in favor of 3000 hits and feeling Biggio was clean). Bonds now would need 87.8% and ones lower than him even more and no way that is happening. Walker is now up to needing 99.7% of remaining ballots while the rest below him need over 100% (IE: no chance even if every last ballot out there had their name on it). With one more vote Walker has crossed the magic number to be over 5% even if everyone left didn't vote for him - all above him are safe for 2014, below still need help. Lofton needs 6% of remaining voters to check off his name to stick around for 2014.

All above is based on an assumption of 573 ballots ala last year - could be more or less but the basic arguments are the same unless we see a massive surge one way or the other.

Possible, of course, that a number of retired voters will just withhold ballots, disgusted and done with the process. A smaller denominator lifts all boats.

I didn't realize how dismal this will be until I saw that the Frick award is also being given posthumously. The Hall should explore the special induction route -- Sadaharu Oh, Dr. Jobe. Are any of the loquacious old scouts still around?

Even better is that Koufax never is/was one of those blowhards talking about much harder it was to pitch back then. A very private man. He must drive 'talent agents' crazy, in that you couldn't create a better template for legendary status - and it didn't happen for that reason.

Just a truly private person who was epically great in the right place at the right time - and not welcoming the adulation only has added to it.

What has become my favorite baseball story, from Jane Leavey's Koufax biography:

"One night during spring training, Norm Sherry prevailed upon Koufax to join him at The Flame, a joint popular with stewardesses and ballplayers. Koufax wasn't a boozer - he generally preferred a good book, a good bottle of wine, and a smoke. 'There were three stewardesses sitting at a bar,' Sherry said. 'One of them grabs Sandy's arm and says, "You're coming with me." He said, "See ya, Norm."'"

"The mustache put Fingers in the Hall.

Good news for Morris."

Please think of the stache next time Bobby Grich is on the VC ballot.

Rennie's Tenet - a smaller denominator could mess it up for Biggio's chances though...
If there are... (at 173 known)
500 ballots he needs 77.1% on the remaining ones
550 he needs 76.8% on the remaining ones
600 he needs 76.6% on the remaining ones

The fewer unknown ballots the harder it is to climb up. If Biggio was over 75% already then the lower the better (fewer chances to drop).

Heyman's ballot:
1. Tim Raines
2. Jack Morris
3. Dale Murphy
4. Curt Schilling
5. Don Mattingly
6. Fred McGriff

I think Heyman is my least favorite sportwriter, and boy that's a lot of #### to be under.

P.S. Bonds and Clemens are irrelevant. The two big kahunas are simply too controversial on this, their first ballot. Sitting at 45%-50% of the vote, give or take, confirms that.

I don't understand what this means.

Anyway, I agree with your general argument but if Bonds and Clemens were elected (which they would be with 90%+ of the vote if no one cared about steroids) the backlog would be lessened. Furthermore I think Piazza and Bagwell definitely go in as well. So PED's are undoubtedly a part of it.

I think Heyman is my least favorite sportwriter, and boy that's a lot of #### to be under.

To be fair his ballot was probably given to him by Boras.

Tony Mullane - 55.1 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).

Actually he was on the VC ballot for this year (and didn't make it) but I know what you meant.

What time zone is Repoz in?

Hoboken 1982

Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

Heard an interview recently with Schilling and he was excited to be on the ballot this year against all the steroid guys who would not get voted in.

When he left Boston, at age 3433, he had 192182 wins -- hardly a Hall of Fame number.

FTFP (fixed that for Pedro).

However, the 1980s/90s blanks were protest ballots over Pete Rose's ineligibility, not a blanket rejection of a set of candidates or an era.

In 1988, nine sportswriters sent in blank ballots. They didn't have anything to do with Pete Rose, who was still a year from his suspension and subsequent ballot removal, but due to, what they believed, were a lowering of standards for Hall of Fame admission. Willie Stargell was still elected with 82 percent of the vote, but the blank ballots cost Jim Bunning, who received 74.2 percent that year - his highest figure on a BBWAA ballot.

If those voters didn't think these guys were worthy why would they have voted for Bunning?