from a ballot perspective, Bonds and Clemens are not all-time superstars, they're guys who've debuted in the 50% range. They are 2 Lee Smiths or 2 Tony Perezes, nothing more.

I totally disagree there, for this reason. Even though it makes little sense, voters are willing to withdraw support from those type of candidates. See e.g. Steve Garvey, or Smith's own trend, which seems to track each year's (inverted) ballot strength. But I can't imagine why anyone who voted for Bonds/Clemens on the first ballot would ever move off them.

I certainly don't think there is any reasonable objection to putting Greg Maddux in the Hall of Fame, but that's not my point. Imagine if you asked 500 people to vote for the seven greatest humans in world history¹. It seems likely to me that no one would get 75% in that vote, not because there is much of a cogent argument to be made against Jesus/Muhammed/whoever, but just because there are so many options, and so many voters who each have their own idiosyncratic approaches, that the whole thing is a mishigoss.

Now of course, the 2014 BBHOF ballot isn't as open-ended as that hypothetical ballot would be. And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Maddux is unlikely to be elected. But I don't think it's anything like a 100% chance of election either. And if he does get elected, I don't think it'll be with an unusually high percentage. (If Biggio does get in, that of course does help Maddux out.)

I should also note that although I think it's going to exacerbate the "HOF crisis" if no one at all gets elected, I certainly agree with #12 that electing a couple of people is not going to make everything business as usual again.

¹ I say seven rather than 10 because that's what I imagine the average names per ballot this year will be.

But I don't think it's anything like a 100% chance of election either.

I do, as I said in that previous thread. He's a 100 percent lock. Biggio and Maddux are not terribly comparable Hall of Fame candidates. Biggio's possible failure to reach 75 percent is not surprising to me. I said last year that it was possible he'd make it through on the first ballot, but also possible he'd get squeezed and it would take 2-3 elections for him to make it. This year's early results confirm just what I and some others believed.

Maddux won't have the same issues as Biggio. He will sail into the Hall, with better than 90 percent of the votes.

And to stand by my conviction, I'll repeat the offer I made there: I'll offer a BBRef bet that someone will be elected to the Hall by the BBWAA in each of the next five years (starting in 2014).

Yes, he was an outspoken critic of PED users, but Ted Haggard was an outspoken critic of homosexuality and look what we found out about him.

Glory Howheblewya!

Maddux will get more than 90 percent of the vote next year; I thought that was obvious to anyone who follows this stuff, but if not - there's your newsflash.

Watched Clubhouse Confidential yesterday, the one with Bill James as guest. On the show, James mentioned something about folks thinking Maddux was scuffing the ball. I hadn't heard that one before -- is James blowing smoke or is there any legit thinking on the issue?

And yeah, that's the worst HoF ballot I've seen yet. Saying a lot, too.

And yeah, that's the worst HoF ballot I've seen yet. Saying a lot, too.

You missed The Chass Ballot?

bachs

no. i know i posted my thoughts on who was scuffing a long time ago on this site.

it was common chatter that in the last 5-6 years maddux was resorting to 'tinkering'

and for the record i think just about every older pitcher turns in that direction when the core pitch of whatever nature begins to slip.

Watched Clubhouse Confidential yesterday, the one with Bill James as guest. On the show, James mentioned something about folks thinking Maddux was scuffing the ball. I hadn't heard that one before -- is James blowing smoke or is there any legit thinking on the issue?

James has hinted at this before.

I don't know the origins of the quote but somebody on this site once told me that Maddux said he disn't scuff balls but he knew what to do with them when he got one that was scuffed by being put in play.