Sunday, May 12, 2013
Fangraphs: Cameron: Welcome Back, Scott Kazmir
(www.fangraphs.com)
Read More...Kazmir threw 73 fastballs yesterday [against Oakland], and they were getting progressively harder as the game wore on. The last three fastballs he threw were all 96 mph, and they were pitches 101, 102, and 103 on the day. A guy who lost his spot in Major League Baseball because his fastball was sitting at 86 ended yesterday throwing 96.
Kazmir hasn’t thrown this hard since his early days with Tampa Bay, and yesterday, we saw what Scott Kazmir with a lively fastball can look like. 72 of his ...
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1 2 >They're betting on a guy being average, who has averaged 4.8 WAR over the last 4 years. That seems like as good a bet as you're going to get in FA.
Edit: If he's a 4 WAR player this year, and declines at the usual 0.5 WAR, and the option vests, they'll get 15 WAR for $60M.
Stubbs has been absolutely awful 2 years in a row vs. RHP. He can spell the others vs. LHP, and Swisher can also play some 1B.
They don't really have a DH, so Swisher at 1B and Reynolds at DH vs. LHP gives them a nice lineup.
-- MWE
Bourn LF
Kipnis 2B
Cabrera SS
Swisher RF
Reynolds 1B
Santana C
Giambi DH
Chisenhall 3B
Brantley (vs RH)/ Stubbs (vs LH) CF
(Rotate Aviles into line-up in the field to give regulars a break. Not bad.)
Now if only the rotation could step up and be average.
Swisher's an average or better OF. Why would you want to get Stubbs in there vs. RHP? The guy has a 228/301/355 line vs. RHP in almost 1500 PAs. I think the guy is a platoon OF.
Kipnis 2B
Cabrera SS
Swisher RF
Reynolds 1B
Santana C
Giambi DH
Chisenhall 3B
Stubbs CF
(Rotate Brantley and Aviles into line-up in the field to give regulars a break. Not bad.)
Brantley is coming off a 113 OPS+ season with average D. Why would he sit for Stubbs and his 61 OPS+ (after an 86 in '11), who's also older?
Next: Kyle Lohse signs for 1/10 with the Colorado Rockies.
I'd play Bourn in CF and Swisher in RF.
Versus RHP - Santana C, Giambi DH, Brantley LF, Chisenhall 3B.
Versus LHP - Santana DH, Marson C, Stubbs LF, Aviles 3B.
Rk Player WAR/pos G Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS1 Andrew McCutchen 15.9 469 23-25 2004 1735 288 505 98 16 70 241 229 347 76 32 .291 .376 .487 .863
2 Austin Jackson 14.8 441 23-25 1960 1752 296 491 85 31 30 152 170 485 61 20 .280 .346 .416 .761
3 Michael Bourn 14.3 454 27-29 2030 1815 274 506 85 26 13 145 182 404 155 39 .279 .346 .376 .722
4 Curtis Granderson 12.1 452 29-31 1903 1645 314 406 61 21 108 292 213 480 47 15 .247 .337 .506 .843
5 Chris Young 11.7 413 26-28 1686 1476 219 359 95 3 61 203 190 363 58 19 .243 .331 .436 .766
6 Shane Victorino 10.4 433 29-31 1900 1701 251 449 82 33 46 185 161 222 92 15 .264 .334 .432 .766
7 Angel Pagan 10.1 428 28-30 1824 1662 243 467 93 26 26 181 136 256 98 23 .281 .334 .415 .749
8 Matt Kemp 8.7 429 25-27 1806 1607 271 467 80 12 90 284 167 432 68 30 .291 .358 .523 .882
9 Denard Span 8.6 351 26-28 1584 1429 193 387 73 19 9 115 134 172 49 11 .271 .334 .367 .702
10 Coco Crisp 8.3 331 30-32 1419 1276 188 339 66 16 27 138 116 178 120 16 .266 .324 .406 .730
11 Adam Jones 8.3 462 24-26 1936 1796 247 510 90 10 76 234 86 358 35 18 .284 .326 .472 .799
12 Cameron Maybin 8.1 366 23-25 1451 1314 195 327 51 16 25 113 112 327 75 17 .249 .312 .369 .681
13 Andres Torres 7.0 383 32-34 1402 1229 181 299 84 16 23 117 150 313 58 18 .243 .329 .394 .723
14 Dexter Fowler 6.6 400 24-26 1598 1374 229 378 73 40 24 134 193 362 37 21 .275 .367 .439 .806
15 Jon Jay 6.6 381 25-27 1328 1185 173 356 65 8 18 104 86 202 27 18 .300 .359 .414 .773
16 B.J. Upton 6.4 453 25-27 1883 1669 250 404 94 11 69 221 183 494 109 27 .242 .317 .436 .753
17 Colby Rasmus 5.1 424 23-25 1685 1500 235 360 73 14 60 194 160 413 21 13 .240 .314 .427 .742
18 Alex Rios 5.1 449 29-31 1827 1709 246 467 88 13 59 223 91 253 68 26 .273 .313 .444 .756
19 Carlos Gomez 4.9 328 24-26 1028 937 147 232 41 10 32 99 52 234 71 11 .248 .296 .415 .711
20 Marlon Byrd 4.7 318 32-34 1265 1169 145 323 63 4 22 110 61 207 8 6 .276 .325 .393 .719
21 Drew Stubbs 4.2 444 25-27 1808 1611 258 383 54 11 51 161 160 539 100 23 .238 .311 .380 .691
Can somebody explain the BJ Upton contract to me again please.
EDIT: Set the games limit at 300 games to get guys that actually played in all 3 of the last seasons...obviouslly that takes out Trout
EDIT 2:
Also the difference between BB_REF and FG evaluation of BJ is ridiculous.
FG has BJ's Baserunning +14.5 while BB-REF has him +6.
FG has BJ's Fielding +0.4, while BB-REF has him -30 ! Even if you treat 2010's -19 like a fluke outlier, he's still pretty negative in the other seasons.
What the heck is going on here ?
3 year FG Report
Interesting line-up, good mix of promising youngsters and capable veterans. Indians seems to have undertaken a total makeover in just a couple years; I don't think that this is a playoff team, but I could see them as high as 2nd in the Central.
The lineup is looking pretty good, but they're going to have to roll a lot of 7's with the rotation to avoid having horrific pitching again.
I don't know. Their best starter has a few (poor) major league innings to his name. Their second best starter was a relief pitcher last year. The other two veterans had ERA+s under 80 last year.
Does anyone know why Masterson was mediocre-to-bad again last year? Or rather, why he was so good in 2011. It wasn't a BAbip fluke.
LHB owned him. He has no pitch for LH.
-- MWE
The real questions marks remain in the rotation. But at least the front office is giving themselves a lot of options. If they can find league average production out of the rotation I think the should be a serious contender in the central division.
The only thing he did well last year was draw walks
I'm not saying that, although the data table suggests that is at least a possibility.
Victorino is older and had a crappy year. Certainly questionable whether he bounces back enough to justify the contract. But I think it's just STARK to consider the contracts if you go by BB-REF metrics. Atlanta better hope FG got it right.
In the FA prediction thread, I had him going to the Rangers. Methought "not going to re-sign Hamilton, CF is Gentry or that Martin kid (who tore it up in AAA) but it's also Cruz and Murphy in the corners and Moreland at 1B and no Michael Young and .... boy did that seem like a team that needed a Swisher or a Bourn or an Upton or something if they wanted to stay near the top. Instead it was Berkman at 1/$11.
Even if that was a perfectly OK decision, I could have so easily been right. The Rangers priorities are all screwed up.
By the way, I missed or forgot the Kinsler extension. I'm not so sure that was a good idea.
(Rare Rangers hijack and I'm not even a Rangers fan.)
Swisher an above average outfielder? UZR has him a tick below average over the last four years, while DRS likes him even less, at about -5 runs per year. That's not horrible, and he should easily make that up with his bat, but using defensive metrics don't back up the idea that he's even an average outfielder, let alone above average. Nor do the fans, for whatever that's worth. Maybe you've seen him play a lot, and think he's better than how defensive metrics portray him?
Michael Bourn's signing with the Indians, like Nick Swisher's earlier, entirely stumped the BTF mind brain. This means there is only one free agent in the contest left unsigned - Kyle Lohse. He's a one-pointer, so we have only two possible winners. The Ghost and Moses Taylor are tied with 10 points.
1) Our likely winner is The Ghost. He has 10 points currently, from picking correctly Zack Greinke (Dodgers), Angel Pagan (Giants), Mike Napoli (Red Sox), Hiroki Kuroda (Yankees), Shane Victorino (Red Sox), and Stephen Drew (Red Sox). He holds the tie-breaker over Moses because he projected Josh Hamilton's salary at $152M, closer to the correct answer ($123M) than Moses' $175M.
2) Moses can still win! If Kyle Lohse signs with the St Louis Cardinals, he will have 11 points and win the contest outright. If Kyle Lohse does anything other than sign with the Cardinals, The Ghost wins.
Thanks for playing!
(Original thread here)
I know Cincinnati doesn't have much left in the piggy bank, but seeing Bourn sign for just 4/48, makes me wonder why they didn't take a run at him instead of a 1 year rental in Choo (who is naturally not a CF).
I think it's precisely not shocking in context. It seems like maybe Bourn overplayed his hand earlier in the off-season. There were plenty of teams looking for CFers, I'm sure the Braves, Nationals, and Rangers, among others had talks with Bourn and they all decided to go another direction (sign Upton, trade for Span, ???). At this point, in mid-February when most teams have completed their off-season plans, I think the odds of Bourn getting a good deal (for him) were low.
I guess I'm being overly pedantic. If you said in October that Bourn would be getting 4/48 I'd be quite surprised. But as of February 12th this is about what I think we could have expected. I wouldn't have been totally shocked to see Bourn sign a one year deal and try it all again next off-season. But $48 million guaranteed probably makes that gamble less tempting.
Choo, even with the defense, should be a big upgrade over Stubbs and they got $3.5M in the deal (so the difference in cost between Choo and Stubbs is only $1M).
But even if they thought they could have signed him for 4/$48M, either:
1. The payroll goes up by an additional $11M in '13
2. They don't get him, it's too late to get Choo, and Stubbs and his (seemingly) horrible yet declining skills are in CF on opening day.
Sometimes you get the bear, and sometimes the bear gets you. We'll see how it turns out.
Cincy would also have to forfeit the 28th overall pick. That's why Bourn's price was so low, teams were reluctant to forfeit a first round pick. That's not an issue for Cleveland.
If Kyle Lohse signs with the Cardinals, we all win.
If Cleveland uses the ideal defensive alignment, Bourn improves their defense in three spots - Bourn's presence in CF shifts Brantley to LF (with Stubbs sliding over to RF) and moves Swisher to 1B, getting the glove off Mark Reynolds. That's an outstanding defensive outfield, which should help their three fly-ball-prone starters (Jimenez, McAllister, and Dice-K) considerably.
Where are you getting your UZR? Fangraphs has his a cumulative +11.5 on D, from 2010-12. BRef has him a cumulative -2.
To my eyes (and I watch a lot of the Yankees) he's definitely average to a bit above. He looks awkward, but gets to a lot of balls.
That's OK vs. LHP, but Stubbs can't hit RHP at all.
/edit - I am told it's 550 PA in year 4. Pretty good bet that he will make that.
/edit - I am told it's 550 PA in year 4. Pretty good bet that he will make that.
Yeah, but if he sucks, it's pretty easy for Cle to keep him under.
Michael Bourn and Jhonny Peralta are great players. Under the old system you had compensation for people like Juan Cruz which meant nobody would sign them for any price. Now we maybe have an All-Star getting $12 million instead of $13.5 million.
It was revamped, but it also got stuck with a bigger problem. Under the old system, if you lost your first round pick, you could blow first round money on a guy who fell in later rounds. Now you can't.
Right, this part keeps getting forgotten because R Soriano and Bourn didn't sign quickly and so their cases get the attention. But who are some of the guys who benefited from the new system? I am shaky on the exact rules, but maybe A Sanchez, E Jackson, Victorino, Dempster... plus a bunch of relievers.
This is a bad system, but it is not without some pleasing irony. The MLBPA thought they were just screwing draftees when they agreed to slotting, but it turns out that they were screwing themselves as well. It annoys me to no end when players associations negotiate away the rights of kids because our ###### up anti-trust system gives them the right, and the players figure that it's no skin off of their back.
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