BBTF.org

- /micros

Login to Join (3 members)

The Indians want a new minority owner — but the price isn’t right | New York Post

(31 -*1:59pm, Sep 01)*

Last: Commissioner Gordon Shumway (Dan Lee)

Danny Salazar sharp as Indians beat Red Sox | MLB.com

(1 -*12:23pm, Aug 18)*

Last: boteman asks Where's My Ring?

Indians trade Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn to Braves for Chris Johnson

(32 -*2:15am, Aug 09)*

Last: Yellow Tango

Twins, Indians promoting Buxton, Lindor

(5 -*12:39am, Jun 15)*

Last: Lance Reddick! Lance him!

Urshela Gets 1st Hit, Home Run but Family Had to Leave Early - NYTimes.com

(1 -*9:28am, Jun 12)*

Last: DKDC

Cleveland Indians option Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall to Triple-A, call up Zach Walters, Giovanny Urshela | cleveland.com

(7 -*5:33pm, Jun 08)*

Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

Why Cleveland has the best – and most futuristic – rotation in baseball - Yahoo Sports

(13 -*4:47am, Jun 06)*

Last: Jacob

Is Cleveland Being Too Conservative With Francisco Lindor? | FanGraphs Baseball

(5 -*11:39pm, Jun 05)*

Last: Drexl Spivey

Cleveland Indians Jason Kipnis hits .429 in May: "I'm a happy guy" | cleveland.com

(13 -*7:56am, Jun 02)*

Last: PASTE Will Notice Harper When He Hits .467 (Zeth)

Cleveland Indians shave their heads in support of Mike Aviles' daughter | cleveland.com

(2 -*9:44am, May 27)*

Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

Tribe considered Saturday reunion for Yan Gomes, Corey Kluber, but the catcher must wait until Sunday: Cleveland Indians notes | cleveland.com

(1 -*10:03am, May 23)*

Last: bobm

Indians beat Cardinals behind Kluber's 18 K's | MLB.com

(58 -*6:33pm, May 14)*

Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Indians' historically bad defense at root of Cleveland's awful start

(38 -*12:28am, May 10)*

Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Carlos Carrasco injured by line drive in Cleveland Indians' 4-1 loss to White Sox

(3 -*3:54pm, Apr 15)*

Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

Cleveland Indians demote Salazar; McAllister, House, Tomlin compete for 2 rotation spots

(7 -*3:04am, Mar 28)*

Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

(31 -

Last: Commissioner Gordon Shumway (Dan Lee)

Danny Salazar sharp as Indians beat Red Sox | MLB.com

(1 -

Last: boteman asks Where's My Ring?

Indians trade Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn to Braves for Chris Johnson

(32 -

Last: Yellow Tango

Twins, Indians promoting Buxton, Lindor

(5 -

Last: Lance Reddick! Lance him!

Urshela Gets 1st Hit, Home Run but Family Had to Leave Early - NYTimes.com

(1 -

Last: DKDC

Cleveland Indians option Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall to Triple-A, call up Zach Walters, Giovanny Urshela | cleveland.com

(7 -

Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

Why Cleveland has the best – and most futuristic – rotation in baseball - Yahoo Sports

(13 -

Last: Jacob

Is Cleveland Being Too Conservative With Francisco Lindor? | FanGraphs Baseball

(5 -

Last: Drexl Spivey

Cleveland Indians Jason Kipnis hits .429 in May: "I'm a happy guy" | cleveland.com

(13 -

Last: PASTE Will Notice Harper When He Hits .467 (Zeth)

Cleveland Indians shave their heads in support of Mike Aviles' daughter | cleveland.com

(2 -

Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

Tribe considered Saturday reunion for Yan Gomes, Corey Kluber, but the catcher must wait until Sunday: Cleveland Indians notes | cleveland.com

(1 -

Last: bobm

Indians beat Cardinals behind Kluber's 18 K's | MLB.com

(58 -

Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Indians' historically bad defense at root of Cleveland's awful start

(38 -

Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Carlos Carrasco injured by line drive in Cleveland Indians' 4-1 loss to White Sox

(3 -

Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

Cleveland Indians demote Salazar; McAllister, House, Tomlin compete for 2 rotation spots

(7 -

Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

OTP - September 2015: Making Sense Of The Republican Presidential Race: It's Like Major League Baseball In August

(514 -*1:48am, Sep 04)*

Last: The Yankee Clapper

Bat Flipping Draws Shrugs in South Korea But Scorn in America

(69 -*1:46am, Sep 04)*

Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

Back to School: The Science Behind Toronto Flamethrower Marcus Stroman’s Rapid ACL Recovery «

(10 -*1:37am, Sep 04)*

Last: dejarouehg

OT - September 2015 College Football thread

(73 -*1:30am, Sep 04)*

Last: Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams)

OT: NFL/NHL thread

(12840 -*12:29am, Sep 04)*

Last: Quaker

OMNICHATTER 9-3-2015

(80 -*12:23am, Sep 04)*

Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

OT: Soccer August 2015

(646 -*12:09am, Sep 04)*

Last: The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB)

Someone Appears To Be Trying To Hoax The Marlins President Out Of His Job

(7 -*12:06am, Sep 04)*

Last: Dock Ellis on Acid

Japan Times: Taguchi hopes to realize dream of managing in U.S.

(2 -*11:44pm, Sep 03)*

Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

Matt Williams Defends Bullpen Management.

(53 -*11:40pm, Sep 03)*

Last: bobm

Mike Mussina's Hall of Fame case is strong, so why aren't voters buying it?

(148 -*11:18pm, Sep 03)*

Last: Misirlou is too lofty, and grabs up all the light

Bloop Hits: Warren Zevon and Bill Lee | FOX Sports

(21 -*11:10pm, Sep 03)*

Last: stevegamer

The Race for Last Place

(29 -*11:07pm, Sep 03)*

Last: bbmck

OT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’

(1907 -*10:39pm, Sep 03)*

Last: DJS From Suplex City!

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-3-2015

(7 -*10:18pm, Sep 03)*

Last: bobm

(514 -

Last: The Yankee Clapper

Bat Flipping Draws Shrugs in South Korea But Scorn in America

(69 -

Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

Back to School: The Science Behind Toronto Flamethrower Marcus Stroman’s Rapid ACL Recovery «

(10 -

Last: dejarouehg

OT - September 2015 College Football thread

(73 -

Last: Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams)

OT: NFL/NHL thread

(12840 -

Last: Quaker

OMNICHATTER 9-3-2015

(80 -

Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

OT: Soccer August 2015

(646 -

Last: The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB)

Someone Appears To Be Trying To Hoax The Marlins President Out Of His Job

(7 -

Last: Dock Ellis on Acid

Japan Times: Taguchi hopes to realize dream of managing in U.S.

(2 -

Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

Matt Williams Defends Bullpen Management.

(53 -

Last: bobm

Mike Mussina's Hall of Fame case is strong, so why aren't voters buying it?

(148 -

Last: Misirlou is too lofty, and grabs up all the light

Bloop Hits: Warren Zevon and Bill Lee | FOX Sports

(21 -

Last: stevegamer

The Race for Last Place

(29 -

Last: bbmck

OT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’

(1907 -

Last: DJS From Suplex City!

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-3-2015

(7 -

Last: bobm

Page rendered in 0.4631 seconds, 54 querie(s) executed

## Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

1. McCoy posted on August 10, 2012 at 02:01 PM #Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.edit: So I went back and looked and MLB played 22 less games than scheduled so that drops it down to 48,578 streaks and a slightly higher .14%.

And so the binomial distribution tells us that this means that the average team has a true talent of .449, or about 73-89.

EDIT: Or that MLB as a whole has a true talent of .449, or whatever. I'm being flip.

We've done this before, with batting streaks. The problem is that you really don't have 152 chances to have an 11 game losing streak. In actuality it's much less. If you have a 7 game losing streak and then win one, you've eaten up 8 of your mythical 152 chances in one go.

Maybe he just did the National League.

If you have a 7 game losing streak and then win one, you've eaten up 8 of your mythical 152 chances in one go.How does that make 152 chances mythical?

You lose game one of the season, so you've started a streak. The you lose game 2. That's a continuation of your first streak, not a new one. Then you lose games 3-9, and then win game 10. So your first attempt ended in "failure". But at that point, you don't have 151 more chances.

Hell, even if you lose game 1 and win game 2, thus failing in your first attempt. Starting in game 3 you have only 150 more chances, not 151.

edit: so to answer directly, it's mythical because the only way to have 152 chances is if you win your first 151 games of the season.

From 2002 to 2011 there have been 67 11 game losing streaks. In a 162 games schedule there are 152 sets of 11 games. Assuming all teams played 162 games gives us 4,860 11 game streaks per year. So .14% of all 11 game streaks resulted in a 11 game losing streak.Does this count a 12-game losing streak (assuming there have been any) as two 11-game losing streaks? Because obviously those two chances are not independent of each other. Which I think gets at what #7 is talking about [EDIT: although now I am not sure after reading #10].

Also, for those who can figure this out, how many 11 game winning streaks have there been?

EDIT #2: removed a sentence because of bad statistics.

Yeah, there's that too.

Hell, even if you lose game 1 and win game 2, thus failing in your first attempt. Starting in game 3 you have only 150 more chances, not 151.Winning in game 2 doesn't just make you fail your first chance but it also makes you fail in your second chance. You've played two games and have a win in your second game. You now have 150 chances to lose 11 games in a row. I'm still not seeing how 152 chances is mythical.

If 152 chances is mythical what are the true amount of chances per season for a team?

thatin your odds and smoke 'em...But does that count the 12 game streaks as 2 11's? And the 13's as 3 11's. And so forth. If not, then the percentages will be much much higher.

That'swhy the 152 chances are mythical.But does that count the 12 game streaks as 2 11's? And the 13's as 3 11's. And so forth. If not, then the percentages will be much much higher. That's why the 152 chances are mythical.Why? I'm not looking at the odds that a team will lose exactly 11 games. I'm looking at the odds that a team will lose 11 in a row at some point. And again if 152 chances is mythical what is the right amount of chances?

Have there been 63 streaks of 11-or-more losses? Or have there been 63 sequences of LLLLLLLLLLL? You don't want to count a 12-game losing streak twice, but you do want to count it at least once.

There are 152 chances, you just can't treat them as independent.

Yeah, I guess that's what I was getting at. Without saying, or even realizing it, my point was there aren't 152

independentchances. a 12 game losing streak is a 12 game losing streak, not 2 11's. For a team, the chances of losing 11 in a row, and then losing the next game to make two 11 game streaks, are not remotely the same. For a true talent .500 team, the odds for the former is (using the odds from the excerpt), are .049%. For the latter it's 50%.As for this, it depends. It's not a question that can be answered

a priori. It depends on the distribution of wins and losses, with a lower bound I suppose of 14 (a team which loses 10 and then wins 1, loses 10, wins one... for the entire season), and an upper bound of 152 (the afore mentioned 151-0 team).Perhaps, but you're treating them as independent in #2.

An equal mix of 61-win teams and 101-win teams have about 8 times more 11-loss streaks than a group of 81-win teams.

EDIT: My point is that approximating the win probability with 50% is going to be wrong by orders of magnitude (one here, if you got the Astros in the league, more).

1899 Spiders lost 24 in a row.

/I was there in '88, so we were wondering if we might just get that record.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.