I'm not sure there is any case of a superstar not moving who has been asked. I think that would be the exception not the rule.

He's not a superstar by any imagination, but the year after George Bell won the MVP award, Jimy Williams tried to get Bell to play DH (instead of the OF) and he refused.
He played all of 7 games at the position in 1988.

I realize that most people probably wouldn't agree. In effect, to me, the difference between Posey and Cano/Trout is that Posey had a better year offensively than either of them and that he plays a more valuable position that we don't totally understand how to measure defense on.

And, you're a Giants fan.

And, you're a Giants fan.

Do you think Johnny Bench deserved to win an MVP award? WAR doesn't.

How about Mike Piazza? His 1997 where he had an 1.070 OPS in Dodger Stadium? Nope. 2000 when he had a 1.000 OPS in Shea? 4.9 WAR. Less valuable than Bryce Harper was this year.

Yogi Berra should have never even finished 5th place in the MVP voting. Same for Campanella, Mickey Cochrane, Ivan Rodriguez, etc. etc. etc.

WAR basically thinks that no catcher should ever win the MVP. I was talking about this long before Posey was a candidate for this year's MVP. There's significant uncertainty surrounding evaluating catcher defense and WAR punts on most of it.

Edit: If you'd prefer a career view, do you honestly think that Larry Walker was around as good a player for his career as Johnny Bench?

One-year defensive evaluations aren't "inaccurate" they are unreliable for prediction purposes -- because they are small samples.

You had a good head of steam until here and then...fail. Evaluating a players contribution on the defensive side of the ledger is an inaccurate calculation at the moment. We all wish that wasn't true, but it is. We know this is true because there are a even the most respected defensive metrics out there contradict each other all over the place. You will not see oWAR saying X is a very good hitter and OPS+ saying he's slightly below average. This happens all the time with our defensive metrics. Offensive value can be captured very accurately. Performance varies, and yes BABIP luck varies, but our ability to measure the actual value created is very good.

Both BBref and Fangraphs agree that Trout was the more valuable offensive player over Cabrera and Posey this year, you don't have to get your panties in a bunch over defense, positional adjustments, or park effects. It's just not even close.

But I like the idea of giving bonus points to sucky third basemen for agreeing to be regularly embarrassed at third, or catchers too brittle to catch very often. If you think about it, I'm pretty sure A-Rod is the MVP, he deserves triple bonus points for being brittle, moving positions, and he's a Yankee!

WAR basically thinks that no catcher should ever win the MVP.

Yes, catchers start out behind because their playing time is much less, but that legitimately makes them less valuable players. Catchers are at a disadvantage because they play 140 games instead of 160, just like relievers are at a disadvantage because they pitch 120 leveraged innings instead of 200. If we're actually trying to figure out who the most valuable player is, those are both relevant and should not be adjusted away. (Defense is another question.)

Also, again (not directed at tshipman), if you don't think Mike Trout is a fantastic defender, you haven't watched him play. It's very obvious from the eye test that he is excellent out there, +2.2 wins above an average CF does not seem at all implausible and actually seems a bit low to me (that represents catching a fly ball that the average CF would let drop for a double about once every 7 games).

In addition, there's a slightly ridiculous 7 run gap in replacement level. I don't know why that is.

League quality adjustment, if memory serves.

not to pile on but questioning trout's defense is strange stuff. i hooked onto the kid pretty quickly just by chance catching him in early may in a game where he hit a homer and a double and he just struck me as a real player. i must have watched over 70 angels games via mlb extra innings just to watch mike trout play baseball.

he's tremendous. and his defense is wonderful. the worst criticism i heard was from a guy who used to scout for the brewers who said maybe gary pettis was better for the angels.

if you are in the same discussion as gary pettis you can play defense

and for the record i am a strong supporter of posey winning the nl mvp

i do not think posey was better than mike trout this season.

and did anyone check out what trout did against the rangers? 19 games, 21 runs scored, 6 homers, 17 rbi and 7 stolen bases and never caught. that's a season for most guys. he was ordinary against the a's but man did he give texas a hard time

League quality adjustment, if memory serves.


Not just league quality which accounts for about 4 of those runs but playing time as well. Cano got almost 700 PA while Posey got 610. A player in the NL with a similar amount of PA as Cano would get 20 runs in replacement value whereas in the AL they get 24 runs. In the NL 610 PA would get you 17 runs while in the AL it would get you about 20 runs.

Where does that come from? Which superstars who have been asked to move, didn't? I'll give you Hanley Ramirez didn't want to move and fought it, but in the end did move. But history is full of superstars/hof level players who moved positions. Off the top of my head you have Biggio, Chipper, Arod, Pujols, Pete Rose, Yount, Ernie Banks, (most centerfielders, but they moved after they were probably not superstars)

I'm not sure there is any case of a superstar not moving who has been asked. I think that would be the exception not the rule.

That is not a knock against the move of course, just don't think it's anything unique.

I think one thing that makes this "more unique" (sorry, English pedants) is that Cabrera was asked to move to a more difficult position, one where there was a high possibility of him looking bad and being embarrassed. Superstars have moved all the time, yes, but usually it's a matter of them moving down the defensive spectrum due to aging or better defenders joining the team.

I imagine it's fairly rare for a superstar 1B who's not even considered particularly good defensively to move to a harder position.

And Michael Young's another example of a "star" who loudly complained when he was asked to change positions

hank greenberg is an obvious example

cooper, you keep beating this position move as if it puts up cabrera up for baseball sainthood.

the player handled it well. good for him. but your posts seem to suggest you want mvp voters to give cabrera a special boost that somehow closes the gap between his and trout's actual performance to make it 'even' and then the special nature of the triple crown puts mc over the top.

that is how i am reading things

and frankly, that's dumb

cooper

i am conflating your posts all together, not just this thread

dumb is excessively harsh

and i am likely misreading things

Here are the players who have won the Triple Trout:

2011: Mike Trout: 129 runs, 49 stolen bases, 171 OPS+.
1990: Rickey Henderson: 119 runs, 65 stolen bases, 189 OPS+.
1958: Willie Mays, 121 runs, 31 stolen bases, 165 OPS+.
1945: Snuffy Stirnweiss, 107 runs, 33 stolen bases, 145 OPS+.
1915: Ty Cobb, 144 runs, 96 stolen bases, 185 OIPS+.
1911: Ty Cobb, 147 runs, 83 stolen bases, 196 OPS+.
1909: Ty Cobb, 116 runs, 76 stolen bases, 193 OPS+.
1902: Honus Wagner, 105 runs, 42 stolen, bases, 162 OPS+...

I realize that there've already been several comments above about Stirnweiss, but I just wanted to say that the totally incongruous presence of Snuffy Stirnweiss's name in a list that includes Trout, Henderson, Mays, Cobb and Wagner justifies the entire column. I'd defy even Bill James to be able to be able to name the sixth player on that list.

We know this is true because there are a even the most respected defensive metrics out there contradict each other all over the place.

I wouldn't put it like that. Those who read my comments about how AL 3b ranked this year according to various defensive metrics might also be interested to note that Michael Humphrys' Defensive Regression Analysis (described in great detail in his book Wizardry) also places Beltre at the bottom of the list of AL 3bs. (BPro's FRAA is the other culprit.)

Basically, there's some discrepancy between zone-based metrics (UZR and DRS/dWAR) and metrics based on adjusting traditional stats (DRA and FRAA). Win Shares provides a third approach, but is closer to the latter than the former.

One way Win Shares departs from DRA and FRAA is in the treatment of double plays, which Win Shares gives weight to and I don't think FRAA does. DRA certainly doesn't. UZR and DRS differ, for example, on how to handle the shift. Brett Lawrie's rating is a good barometer for that. These are all things on which a person can form an opinion about which system handles better.

We greatly exaggerate the problems with defensive systems in terms of achieving an historical accounting when comparing players at the same position. The problem, to me, emerges when comparing a CF vs a 3b vs a C, for example. Almost certainly, the catcher inherently offers vastly more defensive value than either of the other two, and the 3b probably offers more than the CF, even before you start looking at any actual numbers for the specific players. Which system accounts best for that?

Almost certainly, the catcher inherently offers vastly more defensive value than either of the other two, and the 3b probably offers more than the CF, even before you start looking at any actual numbers for the specific players

I find both of these implausible. While catching is important, it's also mandatory. You have to field someone who can take the punishment for most of a season, and teams are forced to compromise offense at the position because of that, not just defensive value. But I can also see in the volume of plays how good catchers can contribute a great deal defensively.

But third base is a reaction position. Doesnt seem like a good third basemen can make more extra plays than a top centerfielder can.

it's also mandatory

Of course, but that's the issue. What value does one assign to a player just for being there and going through the motions? We assign negative value to the typical pitcher's AB (an out). Should we assign positive value to a fielder making a routine play?

Of the defensive systems, Win Shares probably assigns the most value to routine fielding. If one doesn't think that's worth very much, don't use Win Shares, even to average things out.

dumb is excessively harsh

and i am likely misreading things

You're definitely misreading things here. I was simply replying to cardsfanboy's questions. I think it's fairly rare for a superstar to cheerfully move to a more difficult position when almost everything thinks he will be bad at it. Greenberg moved to left field. That's arguably no more difficult than first base. I'm sure there have been others that did what Cabrera did (Kevin Youkilis for one, though the circumstances were a little different), but it's not particularly common. This is not like an old Cal Ripken moving to third base or an old George Brett moving to first base.

You're also misreading (or over-reading) my posts over the past month, or conflating them with something you heard/read somewhere else. I have never, ever said that Cabrera was more deserving of MVP this year than Mike Trout, and frankly I'm not sure why you think that. My attitude toward the Triple Crown was "it would be cool if he does it" but I never suggested it should have any impact on the 2012 AL MVP race. The strongest statement I made in the MVP (non-)debate was that I'm skeptical that the difference between Cabrera and Trout is actually 4 wins. That seems like too big a gap. But I never said the gap didn't exist.

I've said nice things about Cabrera but haven't said anything bad about Trout except an offhand (and actually tongue-in-cheek) comment that moving to 3B in spring training would have been difficult for Trout too -- but because he's an outfielder, not because he's terrible!

I'm a big Tiger fan and thus a big Cabrera fan, and I think the way he handled the move to 3B was admirable. He didn't complain, he didn't hesitate, and I believe he must have worked hard, because he certainly wasn't as bad as most people expected.

I don't like how some people who support Trout/sabermetrics feel like they have to denigrate Cabrera to make their point. (They shouldn't have to. Trout's performance more than speaks for itself.) When people here and elsewhere call Cabrera "a sucky third baseman" or "by any measure one of the absolute worst defensive players in baseball" who is "pulling a Bobby Bonilla impression," has "work ethic issues" and "runs with a piano on his back" and has had "various drunk driving incidents," I feel like someone should be there to defend him.

cooper

thanks for the response

Almost certainly, the catcher inherently offers vastly more defensive value than either of the other two, and the 3b probably offers more than the CF,

Why? If Cs are so valuable defensively, we would see a bigger gap in offense between C and other positions. Top defensive Cs who can't hit are bench players or borderline starters.

I am fine with the idea that WAR doesn't capture much of the variation in C defense, this is probably true for now. That doesn't mean it doesn't capture the variation between positions which one can measure via offensive differences. And of course we have no way of knowing if these unmeasured bits of C defense would help or hurt Posey whose defense is measured against the average C.

Interesting, AL CF this year hit better than RF and LF and the same as DH.

Interesting, AL CF this year hit better than RF and LF and the same as DH.

A rising Trout lifts all boats?