Duda seems like he might fit as a piece going back to Toronto, where he could split DH/1B duties with Encarnacion

The Jays already have Adam Lind as their 1B/DH who can't hit lefties to save his life. No need for Duda whatsoever.

The Jays already have Adam Lind as their 1B/DH who can't hit lefties to save his life. No need for Duda whatsoever.

Lind hasn't even hit RHP especially well for a platoon first baseman with unexceptional defense the last few seasons though. Sub .800 OPS vs RHP in both of the last 2 seasons (in addition to his usual futility against LHP). 2009 was really the last season that he mashed RHP (though he was decent in 2010, his OBP was only .327 vs RHP).

The leverage the Mets have is limited. and they are not likely to get a better deal from the Blue Jays.

They could probably get a comparable package from another team, or they could hold on to Dickey at a cheap price with a plan to trade him midseason. It's definitely the Mets who can easily walk away from this deal, while Toronto is unlikely to have a chance to get a better starter.

I think Matt's right. There isn't anyone out there who can come close to bringing to the Jays what Dickey can. The Mets have behaved stupidly, but they still have a lot of weight to throw around.

As for Duda, if he's who the Jays want in order to let go of D'Arnaud, I'd catapault Duda to Toronto. Duda's the definition of fungible--a guy with no value on D who might be able to hit a little, but has no chance of becoming anything special. The Jays would be fools to take such a replaceable part as part of a package for a catcher who might play in half a dozen all star games.

Source: d"Arnaud definitely in Dickey deal.

That is excellent news.

It is.

Espn says D'Arnaud "Was voted as the best defensive catcher by Eastern League Managers in Baseball America’s “Best Tools” edition... " He tore a thumb ligament in October, but that has to be 2011, right? His downside is a guy who gets hurt every year, plays 60 games a season, and makes it impossible to get the catcher situation settled because you're always piecing in around him.

With Wheeler, Harvey, D'Arnaud, and Gose (is that too greedy?), the Mets would have four Top 40 prospects (if you cut Gose and Wheeler slack for playing in the majors in 2012), two of whom got their feet wet last season. As of mid-year they were 4th, 22nd, 37th, and 38th. Fangraphs seems to have had D'Arnaud at #8 until he got hurt. That would be a hell of system at the top end. The Mets are only missing bulk, and we won't know how they're doing with that until the last couple of drafts develop.

I don't quite get the love for Gose, but Marc Hulet at fangraphs says Gose has real value in the majors even if he hits only .230 or .240. I guess he walks enough to make that tolerable, he has a little power, or at least enough to keep OFers honest, and if he's a plus CFer, that covers a lot of sins. Unfortunately, Hulet's still talking about stolen bases as though they'd matter in Gose's case. Going 228 and 80 in the minors didn't help his game.

I still hate this, though.

Thole may be leaving:

"As of this morning, the deal had four players coming to the Mets and three to the Blue Jays, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Toronto also wants a catcher back in the deal, and that could be Thole. The Mets have discussed getting pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard in the deal as well, Puma tweets."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#73hGBsmbrK2QgPTd.99

Will anyone miss Thole at this point? He's yet to put up a one win season, acc to bWAR.

More:

Sherman reports (on Twitter) that Gose is not part of the trade talks for Dickey. The Blue Jays are building a package around d'Arnaud.

Snydergaard sounds pretty good, though I wonder what else the Mets will be throwing in.

MLB prospect watch has a good writeup of Snydergaard. Not close to the majors, but very promising. Any idea where he ranks in the Jays system?

Aaron Sanchez in the deal now too.

If that was true, the other player could be anyone and it would still be a good deal for the Mets.

Sickels has Snydergaard 2nd and Sanchez 3rd.

I'm getting nervous. I know we're talking about the Cy Young winner here, but this is starting to sound very expensive for the Jays.

I'm nervous that Ike Davis is going to Toronto. But happy that we're really talking about the top prospects.

This is just about the perfect time for the Jays to make a run at the AL East. The Rays are still broke, the Red Sox are recovering from a disaster, the Orioles aren't that good, and the Yankees got hit in the head and think they're the Orioles. I really like what the Jays are doing - it's a tough division, and a two-year window like 2013-2014 won't come along too often.

I'm nervous that Ike Davis is going to Toronto. But happy that we're really talking about the top prospects.

This wouldn't surprise me at all either. I think it's gotta include one of Davis or Duda.

I agree with Matt. The AL East is about as wide open as it's been in years. I'd obviously like it if the Jays could keep all these prospects, but I'd also like it if they could make it back to the playoffs for the first time in 20 years.

If the Mets can get Snydergaard and Sanchez in this deal, they will have a pretty impressive cadre of young arms. Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Sanchez, Snydergaard, Familia, Gee, and Meija. Young pitching will usually break your heart but I can live with that haul.

There is zero chance they have all those pitchers.

I'd guess a deal in the range of Dickey/Davis/Thole for d'Arnaud/(Sanchez or Syndegaard)/two C-prospects seems mostly reasonable on both sides.

I would hate to lose Davis. Maybe that's the fanboy in me, but, it's true.

I would hate to lose Davis. Maybe that's the fanboy in me, but, it's true.

This. I know he didn't have the best year but he did hit 32 homers and drew 66 walks. He's never going to be a guy who hits .300 consistently but I think he's definitely capable of hitting for a good enough average to get to a .350 OBP. One year with a poor BABIP isn't enough to get me down on his potential.

Not sure why people think Ike is getting traded in this deal. There is literally zero indication of that. It doesn't even make sense given the players currently under discussion.

It's going to end up being Dickey/Thole/(Flores?) for D'Arnaud/Syndergaard/Buck or something pretty close to that.

Not sure why people think Ike is getting traded in this deal. There is literally zero indication of that. It doesn't even make sense given the players currently under discussion.

Agreed there have been no reports of Davis moving.

It makes sense because the Jays need a 1B/DH, and they're reportedly sending along a top 50 pitching prospect along with a near-MLB ready top-20 catching prospect. I was trying to figure out what more the Mets might be sending. If they get Sanchez or Syndegaard along with d'Arnaud, without giving up any more real talent, that's a very nice trade for the Mets. Certainly, it could happen.

I'd bet it has to include one of Familia/Flores/Mejia, any one of whom is certainly expendable.

Ike going was a Twitter rumor. No idea if it was based on anything real. Also, if the Jays really are offering up such a prospect haul, they must be asking for more, and Ike is a good chip that fits with their team.

I'm nervous that Ike Davis is going to Toronto. But happy that we're really talking about the top prospects.

I know his stock dropped last season, but his last four months were huge, and he's still cheap. They can't be thinking of moving Davis and sticking Duda at 1B, can they? It's where Duda belongs, but let him belong there somewhere else, if it means keeping Davis in the fold.

This is just about the perfect time for the Jays to make a run at the AL East. The Rays are still broke, the Red Sox are recovering from a disaster, the Orioles aren't that good, and the Yankees got hit in the head and think they're the Orioles. I really like what the Jays are doing - it's a tough division, and a two-year window like 2013-2014 won't come along too often.

Great summary, and probably why the rumors sound good for the Mets side of things. The Jays can really use Dickey right now.

I'd guess a deal in the range of Dickey/Davis/Thole for d'Arnaud/(Sanchez or Syndegaard)/two C-prospects seems mostly reasonable on both sides.

Solid, cheap back up catcher coming off a down year; solid, cheap, GG potential starter at 1B coming off a down year; dirt cheap, solid Cy Young winner signable for two more years at a reasonable price, in return for a terrific but often injured catching prospect, a very promising pitching prospect, and filler?

That's not a deal I'd make.

Yeah, Dickey AND Davis deserves a bigger haul, and I just don't think that's fanboy talk. Four players hit more HR than Davis in the NL last year, his OPS stunk because even with that he started hitting late. He is not a throw-in.

Definitely.

Lefties just killed Davis in 2012 (and 2011), but in 2010 he was fine against them. I remember thinking 2010 meant he turned a corner and had overcome his minor league platoon issues, but maybe not.

Maybe he's just miscast without a platoon partner, and he's an All-Star from the right side, but should sit against lefties.

Davis is .266/.356/.501/.857 against righties for his career, but only .217/.281/.361/.643 versus lefties.

Subtracting at BBRef and a lefthanded reliever can roll the ball to the plate and get him out. Could be he's just being asked to do something he can't (the sign of a poor organization), and after three years it's time to admit that for 120 games a year, he can be star, but not for all 162.

I have to give one more year before I reach that conclusion, but I'm just an optimist.

Being an optimist and a Mets fan seems like a bad combination.

If the Mets can get Snydergaard and Sanchez in this deal, they will have a pretty impressive cadre of young arms. Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Sanchez, Snydergaard, Familia, Gee, and Meija. Young pitching will usually break your heart but I can live with that haul.

There is zero chance they have all those pitchers.

Snydergaard and Sanchez are not both leaving in the same trade. Pure fantasy. Sanchez's name hasn't even been mentioned in print as being involved, only in here by someone. Not that i'm opposed to trading either one of them in the right deal, personally.

Sanchez's name hasn't even been mentioned in print as being involved, only in here by someone.

And to update on myself, no less, Martino just now is saying what McCullough had indeed said a few hours ago (I have now found), that "Syndergaard and Sanchez have been discussed". McCullough's reporting has not been showing up anywhere in the TO Jays news cycle.


Andy McCullough
@McCulloughSL
"Because I guess this was unclear: The Mets wouldn't get BOTH Syndergaard and Sanchez back. Just one. If at all."

It's supposed to be narrowed down to D'Arnaud, Synderblock, Buck and a non-big-name prospect for Dickey, Thole and a non-big-name prospect. Also Mets get cash to pay some of Buck's salary. Not too bad compared to some of the alleged alternatives. But the Mets are going to be really bad this year. I wish they could keep RA, but without the funds to get a FA outfielder or two they were headed to 74 wins again. Now they're headed toward 64. Or 4.

I'm not particularly sure how I feel about this deal. I think badly.

I hate hate hate trading Dickey. But if it must be so, this seems like a solid deal to me.

I think it's a good return for Dickey, but I'd rather not be dumping Thole at the nadir of his value.

The number of non-major-league-ready prospects we are receiving in this possible deal for major-league players troubles me.

Thole will have a long career, but I don't know how good he'll ever be. And I don't know if he ever had much trade value.

I love Dickey. If they get two top prospects back, I'm happy with dealing him.

If they can get a young OFer I'd be really happy with the offseason...what is Arizona looking for for Upton?

I thought Thole would be better, but he's not. We don't have quite enough evidence to throw in the towel on him, but we're getting there. Parting with him to get D'Arnaud doesn't trouble me, though D'Arnaud is older than I though. He's actually only a bit more than 2 years younger than Thole.

Provided the unnamed Mets prospect is not a significant piece (and I don't imagine it is), this is a good return for Dickey. I think this is the right move, but as I mentioned the other day, it still kind of makes me sad. The Mets need to do things like this so that they can be good again, but that's only true because the Wilpons lack the decency to sell the team, as they are unable to support it in any respectable manner.

This is the Mets. If they trade Dickey, it will blow up in their face. If they keep Dickey, it will blow up in their face. If they extend Dickey, it will blow up in their face.

FWIW, Jim Callis of Baseball America, on Twitter less than an hour ago said this in three consecutive Tweets:

"I admire & respect R.A. Dickey, but I wouldn't trade Travis d'Arnaud & Noah Syndergaard to get a 38-year-old knuckleballer.#BlueJays"

"Re responses to my Dickey tweet: Recognize his value, don't want to give up potential all-star C (d'Arnaud) & No. 2 SP (Syndergaard)..."

"...especially when that potential all-star C & No. 2 SP would be under my control for six years each."

Syndergaard might have high potential, but he's a low-A pitching prospect. He's as far from a guarantee as you can get.

FWIW, Jim Callis of Baseball America, on Twitter less than an hour ago said this in three consecutive Tweets:

"I admire & respect R.A. Dickey, but I wouldn't trade Travis d'Arnaud & Noah Syndergaard to get a 38-year-old knuckleballer.#BlueJays"

"Re responses to my Dickey tweet: Recognize his value, don't want to give up potential all-star C (d'Arnaud) & No. 2 SP (Syndergaard)..."

"...especially when that potential all-star C & No. 2 SP would be under my control for six years each."

Tell him to keep his voice down!

Syndergaard might have high potential, but he's a low-A pitching prospect. He's as far from a guarantee as you can get.

This is why I'm shocked everyone is so high on this gamble.

Again, FWIW, the Jays traded 3 Top 10 prospects in the deal for Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle and Bonifacio but none of them were the Jays consensus Top 2 prospects*. The Mets are getting those for basically Dickey and his knuckeball experienced battery mate (apparently). The only additional talent added was Alvarez and Escobar, whose trade value was rock bottom.


*Fangraphs, had Sanchez and Syndergaard swap places

I don't particularly like this trade. Thole had a bad year last season but he did have nearly 700 plate appearances with a .350 OBP and a 97 OPS+ prior to 2012. He should be entering his prime. H's never going to be a star but I still think he can be a starter. John Buck won't be part of the next good Met team and I'd rather the Mets sent that 6 million on other players. I personally think Thole is a more valuable commodity at their relative prices. That means that the Mets got fewer than 2 good prospects for a Cy Young winner who will be paid a relative pittance next year. I can't say the Mets got a great deal here.

I would have preferred a Dickey for Derek Holland deal myself.

The number of non-major-league-ready prospects we are receiving in this possible deal for major-league players troubles me.

The drawback to major league ready guys is that they usually aren't all that hot. If they are, teams very, very rarely trade them. To get real upside, you've got to gamble a little and go for the 20 and 21 year olds in A ball.

Syndergaard might have high potential, but he's a low-A pitching prospect. He's as far from a guarantee as you can get.

This is why I'm shocked everyone is so high on this gamble.

I think it's the upside. The more of a sure thing a minor leaguer is, the less upside you get. The Mets could get a better bet, but he'd be a AAA guy who had a good shot at being Dillon Gee, or a hair better; but not a lot better.

This is the Mets. If they trade Dickey, it will blow up in their face. If they keep Dickey, it will blow up in their face. If they extend Dickey, it will blow up in their face.

Jesus. This is probably true, isn't it? In which case, keep him! That has to be the answer to this riddle!

Parting with him to get D'Arnaud doesn't trouble me, though D'Arnaud is older than I though. He's actually only a bit more than 2 years younger than Thole.

He'll be going into his age 24 season. For a guy who is essentially fully developed as a hitter (at least, as developed as he's going to get in the minors) and was picked as the top D catcher in the Eastern League, that seems like a perfectly okay age for his rookie season.

I'm not particularly sure how I feel about this deal. I think badly.

I hate it, personally, but D'Arnaud is one hell of a prospect. If he can stay healthy he might have a Piazza lite career, with good defense. I'd still rather the Mets kept Dickey, but if you're going to trade your stars, get young guys with all-star upside, and not a grab bag of fourth OFer, fifth starters, and backup middle infielders.

I don't like some of Alderson's moves, but he's smart, and he's smart enough to go for top quality when he's got top quality to deal.

edit: D'Arnaud doesn't walk enough to have a Piazza lite career, so scratch that. Still, he hits for power, hits for average, and his D is very solid. There's a lot to like.

Syndergaard might have high potential, but he's a low-A pitching prospect. He's as far from a guarantee as you can get.

The Mets don't really need to be looking for guarantees, do they? High potential is a good thing.

How good is Syndergaard compared to Wheeler?

@196--I don't like it either, but I think the Mets were giving up on Thole in any case. He had no power in the minors and wasn't developing any in the majors. He got a little worse in 2011 and a lot worse in 2012. He needs a platoon partner just to have any value at all. When you eke out 1 bWar in a thousand plate appearances, it's probably time for your club to explore other options. (fWar is a little kinder, but the last two years still aren't pretty.) Still, isn't Buck probably done? 32 years old, OPS+ dropped from 102 to 87, to 75, and can't hit his weight? I don't know if Buck even qualifies as a warm body at this point.