I'm sure it would be for 6-years, but I don't understand just reporting a number without a length.

I don't understand just reporting a number without a length.

Because the job of reporters is to be stenographers for the moneyed interests that can advance their own goals through the reporter.

And I'm sure Wright's agent is thinking more like 9 years, $200 million. Unless it's Scott Boras, in which case he's thinking 15 years and $400 million with a well timed opt-out.

I'm sure it would be for 6-years, but I don't understand just reporting a number without a length.

I am sure it is Bobby Bonilla length.

How much would you pay for Wright?

How much would you pay for Wright?

Dumber-than-Marcels project him as a 4 WAR player next year, which (assuming ~$5M per win, a 0.5 WAR seasonal regression and 5% inflation) projects out to something like a 6/100 contract.

I might be massively underestimating how much wins are gonna cost after the deluge of tv money, though.

Wright won't take this, it's like when Milwaukee offered CC and then Prince $100 million dollar deals. $100 million is enough to make it look to some fans like you're trying to re-sign a guy, but not enough to actually retain a top talent.

I might be massively underestimating how much wins are gonna cost after the deluge of tv money, though.

Yeah. I'd start at $6M/win and have 7.5% inflation. Plus, during a longish deal, we could see some real world inflation, making that 7.5%, 10 or 12%.

Met for life!!!

Why do they hate him so?

Wright won't take this

Well, you never take the first offer. I think Wright stays.

I think he stays, too. Maybe it's just me but I don't think anyone is going to give him $200 million. I also don't see him as a 4-win player anymore. He had a great first half this year but other than that he hasn't been a 4-win player for the last four seasons.

Yeah. I'd start at $6M/win and have 7.5% inflation.

I think it's as likely that the DVR-driven boom in TV money is a one-off than a long-term trend. And I think the odds of serious real-world inflation in the near future is basically zero. Our central banking overlords will allow crisis-level long-term unemployment in order to prevent even 3-4% inflation.

But there's a very good case to be made for starting at $6M per free agent win.

Dumber-than-Marcels project him as a 4 WAR player next year, which (assuming ~$5M per win, a 0.5 WAR seasonal regression and 5% inflation) projects out to something like a 6/100 contract.

Just out of curiosity, do you have a Smarter-than-Marcels projection for him?

Just out of curiosity, do you have a Smarter-than-Marcels projection for him?

Lord no. That would take way more work. Plus probably some skills I don't have.

I think he stays, too. Maybe it's just me but I don't think anyone is going to give him $200 million. I also don't see him as a 4-win player anymore. He had a great first half this year but other than that he hasn't been a 4-win player for the last four seasons.

2009: 3.6 WAR (fielding + position adjustment -0.82 WAR)
2010: 4.0 (-.88)
2011: 1.9 (-.95) Wright missed about 1/3 of the season.
2012: 7.8 (+1.8)

If you prorate 2011, Wright has generally been worth 3-4 win player every year since 2009 except for last year when he was significantly better. Wright actually saw basically a 3 win jump upgrade in defense this year if you prorate 2011. Now is Wright really that good defensively? Nope. Is he really as bad as his 2011 suggests? Nope. When he's healthy, Wright IS an average defender and I think that means he's been a 4-5 win player the last four seasons.

Adrian Beltre got 6y/96m after one 141 OPS+ season in a good hitter's park for him after years of mediocrity offensively. Wright, in a park that isn't great for him, has put up a 130 OPS+ the last four seasons. Let's not include last year if you think the first half was a fluke. He still put up a 124 OPS+ in 2009-2011.

Beltre got 6y/96m. I think Wright gets more than that because of inflation and because there's going to be someone who thinks he's better than that because of Citifield.

This reminds me of the time Saturday Night Live offered the Beatles $3000 to appear on the show.

Really? Reyes signed for 6 and $100 mill. Seems like a decent starting point.

Really? Reyes signed for 6 and $100 mill. Seems like a decent starting point.

This is true, although a six-year contract will only take Wright through his age 36 season. If they really want him to be a Met "for life," it's going to take either a longer deal or Wright taking less than $16.5 (or so) per year. And the latter seems unlikely.

2009: 3.6 WAR (fielding + position adjustment -0.82 WAR)
2010: 4.0 (-.88)
2011: 1.9 (-.95) Wright missed about 1/3 of the season.
2012: 7.8 (+1.8)


I was looking at bWAR which has him at 2.5 2.9 1.9 6.7.

1. Weiters' tongue is blue.
2. He looks sad.
3. The A's-Tigers game might end before the Stinks-O's one.

acaxgh

Sorry, credit that post to my cat, Hana.

{wrong thread}

Voxter has added a lot to this discussion.

I'm of the view that the Mets should trade Wright. A lot of that is because I just don't understand him as a player any more. In every year he usually finds a way to do something to bring a fairly significant level of value to the team, but over the past few years there have seemed to be weird fluctuations in his skills that cause me to question whether he's a good bet to maintain any aspect of his production (of course there's always the chance he could put everything together in any given year). But I'll be really annoyed if they take the same cowardly path with Wright as they did with Reyes, and lose him for the equivalent of Kevin Plawecki.