I think that's exactly right. They see the Mets as the family business and legacy, not just a fun side project.

I don't think the Mets can't afford Dickey. My guess is they see either him or Niese as their best chance to get at least one good hitter into the system and they're trying to go as far as they can shopping him.

I'm not good with the baseball reference play index; is there any way to see if there are many guys who have increased their K rates like Dickey has? He increased it so much that I'd have to think he's going to carry some of that with him next year, even if he's not going to strike out nearly a guy per inning. (Especially since you can get into the anecdotal story of a guy who hasn't been throwing the knuckleball for very long and is still toying around with it. But I'll concede I have no evidence that's why he struck out so many guys. But I do believe he was working up in the zone more with the knuckleball, which is why he allowed fewer groundballs and more HR)

Only the Mets could find a Cy Young winner off the scrap heap and turn it into a problem. That is actually kind of impressive, but I still think they'll come to a deal in the end. Dickey isn't asking for anything outrageous so I think this gets done.

edit: And then, of course, he'll immediately begin a descent into suckitude.

Not so - Dickey pitched the same number of innings in 2010, minors included.

EDIT: Coke to Russlan

Fair enough. I stand, for all practical purposes, corrected.

But in terms of a realistic expectation, the past 3 years should be a good indicator of what he'll do for the next three (barring traumatic injury, of course).

And I disagree. I wouldn't realistically expect a pitcher to do from 38-40 what he did from 35-37.

And I disagree. I wouldn't realistically expect a pitcher to do from 38-40 what he did from 35-37.

You also wouldn't "realistically expect" a pitcher to go from journeyman at 34 to Cy Young winner at 37. But that's what happened. Your computer program doesn't really work on Dickey. He is better at 37 than he was at 35.

But this is why there's so much uncertainty around Dickey. If this was Pedro Martinez coming off a 3-year run like Dickey just had, you're probably looking at a $20M+/yr extension. But there aren't really "similar" pitchers to model off of.

And I disagree. I wouldn't realistically expect a pitcher to do from 38-40 what he did from 35-37.

He has very low mileage on his arm.

It doesn't matter how unique, you don't expect an old guy to repeat. Sometimes in happens, of course. But even factoring in a decline, you want him on your team for 2014-2015.

$13 million is probably a discount anyway for what Dickey has done from 35-37.

Dickey the last 3 years has a 130 ERA+. His worst season was 208 IP at a 112 ERA+. That's gotta be worth more than $13 million, no?

I was just looking at his rate stats on BBRef, it's pretty crazy. Here are his walks per 9 the last 3 years
2.2, 2.3, 2.1

His HR per 9

0.7, 0.8, 0.9.

his Babip
276, 275, 278

But his K rate is

5.4, 5.8, 8.9

So he basically kept his walk, HR, and BABIP numbers the same, and spiked his K rate by over 3 per 9. That's gotta project pretty well for the next few years, even at his age.

I don't know why this keeps coming back to Dickey's 2012 season. If he did nothing more than put up two seasons like 2011 (something like 200 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), $13M per would be a remarkable bargain. Bear in mind that 2011 is arguably the worst of his last three seasons.

Of course you expect old players to decline, even knuckleballer pitchers. That's why we aren't talking about $17 million per year. The numbers here already include huge discounts for Dickey's age. If he were 10 years younger he'd be looking to beat Grienke's contract.

Of course you expect old players to decline, even knuckleballer pitchers. That's why we aren't talking about $17 million per year.

Exactly. If he was 27, he'd be asking for Greinke money.

At this point in baseball analysis, we know how to generate a 50th percentile projection for players, and Dickey's will certainly say that he's worth more than $13m in 2014 and 2015 and will underrate him if anything (because knuckleballers are more likely to age well than regular starters). There's no reason to pretend this is about his 2012.

The Wilpons are rightly getting a ton of flak for most of the Mets problems, but I think this one is on Sandy. His contortions and about- faces just this off-season has been dizzying, and from yesterday:

Alderson acknowledged the Mets may not use the available capital -- in part because the prices on the market may not be worth it.

"Again, it's hard for me to predict what exactly will happen," Alderson said. "But we're not going to spend the money in mid-December just because we have it. We may spend it in January. We may spend it at some other time. We may not spend it. But the important thing is we have the flexibility to make a baseball decision about that rather than be constrained by sort of an artificial financial limitation."

I suspect Sandy’s player valuations hasn’t adjusted to the world where Zack Greinke gets $147m.

Now, if Dickey gets Bensoned for airing out his grievances, THAT's on the Wilpons.

Of course you expect old players to decline,

If you expected him to experience an age-related decline coming into 2012, you would have been gloriously wrong. That's *the* problem with Dickey-- the bar, in his case, was set when he was already "old"-- from ages 35-37. I'm not saying I know what he's going to do in 2013, but it's not like we're using ages 25-37 to predict ages 38-40. I'm not sure how different his body is going to be in the next 3 years than it was in the previous 3. We do know that his ability to get major league hitters out has improved markedly as he has aged-- from nil at age 34 to very good from ages 35-36, and then again to excellent at age 37.

I suspect Sandy’s player valuations hasn’t adjusted to the world where Zack Greinke gets $147m.

I think there is a lot of truth to this and that's what worries me a little.

In Dickey's case, it's not some late-career fluke that he's become more effective. He made a concerted change in his pitching style, and since then has been a different pitcher. Plus, he's the Mets' second-most marketable player after Wright.

Dp - this is simple. You expect old players to decline. You just do. Dickey may be unique, he may hit his peak at 42, but you cannot expect it or plan for it.

Dp - this is simple. You expect old players to decline. You just do. Dickey may be unique, he may hit his peak at 42, but you cannot expect it or plan for it.

I'm not sure why you're insisting on "decline" when we don't know where he's declining from. From 2012? I'm not expecting a repeat. But why would anyone expect Dickey to not pitch like he did from 35-37? You need more than "you just do" to convince me, especially when Dickey's career already broke your mold. When baseball players become algorithms, you can stop treating them as unique. But until then, recognize an exception when it presents itself.

Sure, but for the amount of money we're talking about, a total 3/31m contract is eminently reasonable. I mean, he could break down and no longer be able to pitch by the time the contract starts, or he could lose it suddenly, but I don't see why he's a greater risk to do that than, say, Jon Niese or Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler over the next 3 years. And he provides a nice transition to the future with the chance of still being a solid rotation member when the Mets are ready to compete in 2-3 years.

I think that's what's driving us on the "give him an extension already" bandwagon crazy, it's not so much money nor so many years that his failure to fit into any neat category of pitcher is a real handicap. And as stated by others above, if he were coming off his age 27 season and not his age 37 season, he'd be getting 6+ years and 150m dollars.

Along the lines of what scott and Conor and Crosby and snapper and others have said: it doesn't really matter if you project Dickey to stay level at his 35-37 performance, or if you expect him to drop off slightly. Unless you think he's going to totally collapse, he'll be worth $10-13M/year from 38-40.

I can still see the case for trading him. But what they're doing now seems like a huge mistake.

Sure, but for the amount of money we're talking about, a total 3/31m contract is eminently reasonable.

But it's not really accurate to think about it as if they are deciding on a 3/31 contract. They would be deciding on a 2/26 extension a year in advance. I still think it is eminently reasonable, but they are not deciding between 3/31 and nothing, they are deciding between 3/31 or 1/5 (or trading the 1/5).

Sure, but for the amount of money we're talking about, a total 3/31m contract is eminently reasonable.

But, as I keep trying to point out, that's the wrong way to look at it, because you're not signing him now for 3 years. You already have him under contract at 1/5m.

Look at it this way: The Mets have Harvey under team control for six years. Let's say he'll make $10 million over the six years. What if the Mets signed Harvey now to a 7th year for $50 million just for that one year. Would you say, hey, this is good, think of it as a 7 year, $60 million contract!

The Mets are thinking, we have Dickey for 1/5m right now, which is basically getting a Cy Young candidate for free, and rather than obligate ourselves to another $26 million for ages 39 and 40, we can just say goodbye to him after the year - or trade him - and make out better overall.

They would be deciding on a 2/26 extension a year in advance. I still think it is eminently reasonable, but they are not deciding between 3/31 and nothing, they are deciding between 3/31 or 1/5 (or trading the 1/5).

Well, they're taking a risk, to be sure. But if Dickey repeats 2012, he's not signing for $13M/yr for 2014 and 2015. I thought that was already pretty well understood-- there are risks on both sides of this deal. Of course, if he continues at the level he was at in 2012, that should push his value higher at the trade deadline.

another $26 million for ages 39 and 40

But this is also below market value. It's not like they're paying more than is fair to make up for the 2013 contract.

Of course you expect old players to decline, even knuckleballer pitchers.

Charlie Hough was quite good at 38-40. He started tailing off at 41, but was still decent. Phil Neikro also (was 17-4 at 43!).Candiotti was definitely tailing off in terms of IP and ERA.
It really is uncharted waters, predicting R.A.'s next few years.
I still maintain the team just doesn't have the money, despite the lack of commitments for 2014. We know they have run the team on short term loans for parts of the last few seasons. They may have called the credit card company and gotten a polite "no" when asking for an extra $3M for 2014. Look at it this way: at least tickets will be easy to get.

At least on this site, I don't think a single person expects a repeat of 2012 from him.

Right. Obviously, if you're a Met fan, you hope that 2012 is a new level of performance. But in terms of a realistic expectation, the past 3 years should be a good indicator of what he'll do for the next three (barring traumatic injury, of course).

I don't think this, but I seem to be pretty much on my own on this site. I expect a steep, downward trajectory from 2012 and won't be surprised at all if Dickey's out of baseball as of the end of 2015 (NRIs to 2016 ST not included).

Nonetheless, he has a good distance to fall. If his 2013 is like his 2010-2011, his 2014 ERA+ falls another 20 points, to 100, and his 2015 is 160 innings with an ERA+ of 85, he will still have been worth a 2/26 extension.

There are other reasons beyond performance that I want the Mets to extend Dickey. He's nearly as much the face of the franchise as Wright, at this point. The Mets don't have the minor league players to overcome a low payroll over the next three years. As I mentioned on another thread, something like six significant, distinct things have to go either very right or very wrong for signing Dickey to turn out to be the mistake that keeps the Mets out of the postseason. The downside to signing him is miniscule.

I looked a couple of weeks ago and noticed that even among history's top ten knuckleballers, most don't pitch well at 40 or after, for whatever that's worth, but I didn't look at them specifically in light of who was and who wasn't terrific at 37, obviously a huge factor in any projection.

That said, I fully expect the Mets to #### this up, for Dickey to go elsewhere in 2014, and for the Mets in 2014 and 2015 to piss away $13m on a variety of retreads and relievers who contribute less than a win, collectively, to the team.

Pay the man, ########.

We thought the DeRoulets and M.Donald Grant would never leave, either. But the fans' deserting them and they becoming the joke franchise of baseball led to the sale. Selig is the wild card here. His defense of Loria and the Mets are the only thing propping them up. But he won't be around forever. Meanwhile join me in e-mailing Mark Cuban and encouraging him to save us.

I appreciate the encouragement. What's the address for Cuban?

Also, maybe he was just talking, but Dickey pretty much said yesterday if he doesn't sign an extension he's leaving next winter.

Maybe he's just trying to put pressure on them to get it done now, but I dunno.

@79: it wouldn't surprise me if he does leave. He knows the Mets are lowballing him, he knows the team isn't going anywhere, and he seems like exactly the kind of guy who would thrive in and enjoy a pennant race elsewhere.

It's sounds like a combination of honesty and leverage and anger.

That said, I fully expect the Mets to #### this up, for Dickey to go elsewhere in 2014, and for the Mets in 2014 and 2015 to piss away $13m on a variety of retreads and relievers who contribute less than a win, collectively, to the team.

That's also a big part of the problem here. The Mets aren't going to pay Wright and then 24 league-minimum players. We're going to see a bunch of $3-4M for trash deals, as usual.

It may well be that Dickey is worth $17-18M per on an extension, risk and all, but if that were Dickey's asking price, I don't think I'd criticize the Wilpons for taking a hard line. This is different, because Dickey is asking for basically market value for a league-average pitcher, for two additional years. I would be surprised (not shocked, but surprised) if Dickey ends up worse than league-average over the 2014-2015 seasons.

@81--if a win is now worth around 6m and remains there through 2015, and fangraphs is correct, that Dickey's last three years have brought in 2.8, 2.5, and 4.6 wins, an average of 2.2 wins in 2014 and 2015 will mean the Mets are getting what they paid for.***

2.2 wins, working from Dickey's 2011 season, means around 150 innings at his 2010-2011 level. If you go by bWAR Dickey can miss even more time, and get in around 125 innings at his 2010-2011 level and still be worth the deal.



***The Mets won't contend if they're buying wins at 6m apiece, but that's another conversation.

@81--if a win is now worth around 6m and remains there through 2015, and fangraphs is correct, that Dickey's last three years have brought in 2.8, 2.5, and 4.6 wins, an average of 2.2 wins in 2014 and 2015 will mean the Mets are getting what they paid for.***

2.2 wins, working from Dickey's 2011 season, means around 150 innings at his 2010-2011 level. If you go by bWAR Dickey can miss even more time, and get in around 125 innings at his 2010-2011 level and still be worth the deal.

You should go with bWAR. Knuckleballers have a known ability to suppress BABIP, so a FIP-based WAR sells them short.

I don't think you can use the fangraphs WAR for Dickey, it relies too heavily on FIP for a knuckleballer.

In 2011 Dickey threw 208 IP with a 112 ERA+ and Fangraphs credits him with 2.5 WAR. Daniel Hudson threw 222 IP (with a similar ratio of unearned runs allowed) and a 113 ERA+ and Fangraphs gives him credit for nearly twice as many WAR, 4.9. Baseball reference has him at 3.1 WAR, but even that seems a little low.

Edit: I guess Snapper beat me to it, but I still think 3.1 WAR for his 2011 season seems on the low side, but maybe I'm off.

You should go with bWAR. Knuckleballers have a known ability to suppress BABIP, so a FIP-based WAR sells them short.

As I understand it, the average BABIP for knuckleballers is considerably lower than other pitchers, hovering between .273 and .278. Lo and behold, Dickey's BABIP over the past three seasons were .276, .278, and .275.

I suspect a lot of you are like me: I want Dickey to get a lot of the Wilpon's money because a) Dickey is a great story and very likeable guy and b) the Wilpons are not.

However, I wouldn't give him 2/26 now, even if it came with a huge risk of losing him next off-season. As said above, it's uncharted waters in terms of what to expect. If he throws 150 IP of 70 ERA+ ball this season, you can have him for whatever you want in 2014. If he repeats, and your finances hold, you can make nice and offer a pile of cash. If he goes elsewhere, well, is the outcome of the 2014 Mets hinging on the performance of a 39 year old pitcher? Because, if it is, there are many other problems.

The only thing I don't get is the 2/20 offer. That seems to make no sense. I would have simply told him at the end of the season that we loved what he did, love having him around, can we help with his favorite charity and we look forward to negotiating next off-season.


Again, if Dickey asked me for help hacking the Wilpon's accounts and transferring all of their assets to an account of his in the Cayman's, I'd probably do it. As a fan, I want him paid and, even as a Braves fan, to stay a Met.* But it makes baseball sense to me to be cautious with a 38-year old pitcher with as little history as he has.**


* I usually root for the guy to stay put.

** IMO, though, most teams overbid for older players. It seems few take pay cuts that represent their risk and performance decline (not necessarily applicable in this case).

If he repeats, and your finances hold, you can make nice and offer a pile of cash. If he goes elsewhere, well, is the outcome of the 2014 Mets hinging on the performance of a 39 year old pitcher? Because, if it is, there are many other problems.

I don't really understand this sentiment. The Mets will need pitching in 2014 whether or not it hinges on any individual one.

The only way that I can make sense of this is if the Mets are hesitating to sign Dickey because they aren't sure whether the teams that are vying to trade for him would value him more as a 1year/$5M contract or 3year/$31M contract.

It's not only the Mets doing their valuation of Dickey in a vacuum (as discussed above, it's hard to imagine any scenario where he's not worth extending for 3/31 RIGHT NOW) but rather what each individual trade partner thinks about the same positions.

In that light, with 4-6 potential teams looking at Dickey, they've probably all expressed different levels of interest in Dickey either with the contract extension or not. I think the Mets are stalling.

If he goes elsewhere, well, is the outcome of the 2014 Mets hinging on the performance of a 39 year old pitcher? Because, if it is, there are many other problems.

I don't get this argument at all. Dickey will still likely be above average, if not significantly so, in 2014.
what team can't find a use for that? Will the outcome of their season hinge on it? I don't know, but I'm constantly amazed at how blase people often are about pissing away a win or 2 or 3 here and there. The Mets missed the playoffs by 1 game in 2007. They missed again by 1 game in 2008. (They also missed by 1 game in 1998 and 3 games in 1997.) Are these things such distant memories that we can't envision a scenario where having an above average innings eater on the roster could help? And even if the Mets aren't an 89-win team in 2014-2015 (not that you have to be to have a shot at the playoffs now), is there no value at all to being 81-81 instead of 78-84, or 85-77 instead of 82-80? Fans still need a reason to come to the games and Dickey gives them that even beyond his value on the field.

The only way that I can make sense of this is if the Mets are hesitating to sign Dickey because they aren't sure whether the teams that are vying to trade for him would value him more as a 1year/$5M contract or 3year/$31M contract...... I think the Mets are stalling.

I find this believable.

However, I wouldn't give him 2/26 now, even if it came with a huge risk of losing him next off-season. As said above, it's uncharted waters in terms of what to expect. If he throws 150 IP of 70 ERA+ ball this season, you can have him for whatever you want in 2014. If he repeats, and your finances hold, you can make nice and offer a pile of cash. If he goes elsewhere, well, is the outcome of the 2014 Mets hinging on the performance of a 39 year old pitcher? Because, if it is, there are many other problems.

This is an argument for never giving any pitcher a decent size contract.

Every pitcher in baseball is fully capable of giving you 150 IP of 70 ERA+ next year. In fact all have a significant probably of giving you 0 IP.

This isn't the NFL where players get massive signing bonuses

Actually you'll find that a lot of contracts pay out a fair amount up front. As I understand it, it's advantageous for tax purposes. Or at least can be.

This is something that hamstrung the Expos during the Brochu years. Even though they were profitable they had real cash flow issues (since Brochu had no personal wealth and the other members of the ownership group didn't want to actually put any more money in)

And I disagree. I wouldn't realistically expect a pitcher to do from 38-40 what he did from 35-37.

I did a study quite some time ago on pitcher aging. 36 is when you see strong evidence of consistent decline.

Oh there are exceptions. Maybe Dickey is one of them. I don't think it's a smart way to bet -- at least not if you can't hedge somehow.

If he goes elsewhere, well, is the outcome of the 2014 Mets hinging on the performance of a 39 year old pitcher? Because, if it is, there are many other problems.

I don't get this argument at all. Dickey will still likely be above average, if not significantly so, in 2014.

It isn't clear, but my point is that by extending now, you risk having a 39 year old coming off a crappy season. How much would you pay for that?

Yes, the Mets will need pitching regardless. I guess it comes down to the last quoted sentence. I think there isn't a very good chance he'll be significantly above average in 2014. You don't. Neither of us has much evidence in support. You have his last three years. I have his age.


And, yes, of course any pitcher could suck. But there is ample history that a 29 yhear old pitcher coming off three good years will continue to be good. There isn't as much for a 38 year old pitcher. IOW, I expect decline, probably significant. If it's the Wilpon's money, I hope he gets it. If it were my money, I wouldn't extend him.

I do think the Mets have handled it badly. By making an offer, you're sort of saying you'll negotiate. And I can see holding my ground on the initial offer if I'm Dickey. By making an offer an not negotiating, you irritate. I would have just not made an offer. If, come June he's still rocking, I'd make an extension offer (yes, I know, "no negotiations" in season but if you make an attractive offer, people will listen). It risks costing you a little more money but you save the chance of implosion. Either way, I don't go longer than 2 years.

I just think you guys saying he's low mileage and a knuckleballer are underestimating both his relative lack of performance history and his age.

But it makes baseball sense to me to be cautious with a 38-year old pitcher with as little history as he has.**

Three years is enough history, though. I have no worries that 2010-2012 doesn't represent an established level of performance, and don't understand people who think it's more than a hair less meaningful than if he had pitched like that from 2003-2012.

The market, anyway, agrees with me. CJ Wilson got a juicy deal with a two year track record as a starter.

Agree w 88 and 90, btw.

And after reading bunyon in 94, I thought right away of the Reyes' "negotiations". A lowball offer everyone knew was stupid low, and it just served to make the Mets continue to look like ########. This is the same offer, v2012.

I think there isn't a very good chance he'll be significantly above average in 2014.

Well this is the crux of it, I guess. But he wouldn't have to be that great in '14 and '15 to make $13m at least an acceptable pricetag. And of course he could be good enough to make it a great bargain.

#94, your original point was clear. I think the response of most people here is that if there was no risk of Dickey being bad in 2014 then he'd be getting paid a lot more for a lot longer than 2/$26. 2/$26 is the price for a guy with some risk of being bad. The Mets are almost lucky that he's old and they don't have to worry about him asking for a 5+ year deal. Their track record with those (a la Pedro or Johan) is not great.

Is there any point in doing a Marcels projection for Dickey?

I like the arguments that he's better represented by bWAR than fWAR, so, here he is, 2010 to 2012:

3.4, 3.1, 5.6

That gives him a 3 year projection (knocking off half a win a year) of:

5.1, 4.6, 4.1 = 13.8 wins * 6m per win = $82.8 million, and $52.2m of that for 2014 and 2105.

Okay, the half win a year aging curve isn't nearly enough (Dickey won't last until he's 48, I don't think), so let me reverse engineer this.

5.1, 3.6, 2.1 = 5.7 wins in 2014 and 2015, making Dickey worth $34.2m on the proposed 26m deal. That's a 3-2-1 Marcels with 1.5 wins a year lost to aging after a half win drop off in 2013.

You have to regress some and knock his 2013 down a fair bit to make this a fair deal for both sides, something like:

4.6, 3.6, 2.6 = 6.2 wins in 2014 and 2015, making Dickey worth $37.2m on the proposed 26m deal. Too much. How about

4.6, 3.1, 1.1 = 4.2 wins in 2014 and 2015. The Mets get $25.2 m out of the last two years of the deal.

That involves an accelerating aging curve, and implying Dickey is out of the league after 2015.


In sum, I have little idea, but it was interesting to me to see the kind of progression Dickey might take for a 2/26 extension to turn out okay for both sides.

.

@98: Jack, I think you're just making yourself crazy here for no reason. The reluctance to sign Dickey has nothing to do with his on the field performance.

If I were to put my "Wilpon Hat" on for a minute, and think about it as stupidly as possible, perhaps they are thinking that 2012 was a complete and utter fluke and that his true talent is how he pitched in 2010 and 2011.

Using a projection from that basis (of true talent around 3.2 WAR) is 2.7, 2.2, 1.7 WAR per season, 2013-2015 using the bWAR numbers you cited. That gives the Mets 3.9 wins in years 2014 and 2015 which is a value of approximately $24 million.

But more likely, I think they are just stalling like I said in #88. In the meantime, they're trashing the guy in the press. Ugh.

@98: Jack, I think you're just making yourself crazy here for no reason.

Heh, yeah, you're right. Not the first time. Not the first time today, come to that.

But more likely, I think they are just stalling like I said in #88.

That did strike me right away as an excellent explanation for the stall.

So, the hope is that 29 GMs fail to make a decent offer for Dickey. Hooboy.