Roster of Rubbish? I know some people were down on who joined Armisen on stage…but this is ridiculous!
Read More...And Collins’ team isn’t winning. So you should understand why he might be losing it. He turns 64 later this month. He was run out of Houston and Anaheim. There is no next managing job. This is more than his last best chance. It is just plain his last chance to prove he is a good major league manager.
...For if you know whether Collins is a good manager or bad manager based on his Mets ...
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1 2 >I stopped at the first sentence of the quoted part.
I can find this popping popcorn style of prose useful at times, and for a farce like the Wilpons it suits.
I think this team has the potential to be pretty good soon. I like Niese and Harvey quite a bit and as my username says I am pretty fond of Gee as well. And they still have guys like Familia and Wheeler in the minors.
I'm uneasy that so many of their assets are young pitchers, but it's better than where we were 2 years ago. I'd feel a lot better if Nimmo, Flores, and maybe Vaughn take big steps forward this year.
BTW, I really don't like that the Mets are looking at Familia and Mejia as relievers. At least to start this season, I want them starting in the minors.
Not optimistic, but not pessimistic. They really could go in any direction at all.
Only Wright seems to have the potential to put up a season that really moves a team towards a championship. I have no idea what Davis will do, but I'm optimistic. D'Arnaud is the only catcher on the roster with the potential to play above replacement level, and he hasn't had an ML at bat. I really like his prospects, though. He's definitely got All-Star potential.
The pitching staff has promise, but I see Niese and Gee only as solid, back of the rotation guys on a contender; not as the anchors, and I don't think it's close. Marcum was a good pickup, but not a big deal. That leaves the team's future largely in the hands of rookies and minor leaguers.
If the team will have a 90m payroll for the next decade, Wright should have been traded. You don't want to give a guy that much money who'll be into his decline phase once the current crop of minor leaguers starts to blossom. But, as mistakes go, worse ones get made all the time.
I like guys like Tejada and Murphy. Everyone does. Homegrown guys who can give you a couple of wins for close to the minimum are fun to root for. Neither has breakout potential, though. And what the frak is going on with the OF and the pen? I thought the OF corners and the bullpen were where a GM with no money could shine.
Most teams have the potential to be pretty good soon. So do the Mets. Wright could continue strong. Davis could rebound and put up an All-Star season. D'Arnaud could be well above average in 2014. Tejada and Murphy could be solid regulars. Niese and Gee could keep it up. Marcum could be solid. Wheeler might excel.
We can't just say money doesn't exist, though. It hangs heavy over this kind of club. One problem recurs with examples like the case where Murphy continues to be a 2-3 win player. These Mets will let him go in free agency. Same with Tejada. This isn't a Mets team that will routinely re-sign their average regulars once they get to free agency. Unless ownership changes, the windows are very small. These Mets need to take advantage of Davis, Murphy, and Tejada before they get expensive. If between them they're good enough to help the Mets contend, they could easily end up making 25m a season in FA, and if they're not good enough, it means there are just way too many holes in the roster.
With respect to Mejia, his star has definitely dimmed but he's still only one day older than Familia, and 8 months younger than Harvey. Maybe he never regains the stuff that made him a good prospect and he ends up a bust but I want him in the minors starting.
I like the idea of "Galtian militancy". Galt was a pretty passive dude.
Johan Santana is “angry” and “bitter” toward the Mets http://dlvr.it/347cgV #mlb #hbt"
Has Alderson had a few moments of running his mouth to the media that haven't benefited him since becoming a GM again?
I am actually quite optimistic about the future of the Mets. I think Harvey, Wheeler and Niese have a pretty good chance of forming the 1 - 3 spots in the rotation on a championship level club, and they're all under team control for 6 more seasons. Gee is at the least a solid back-end starter who is also cost controlled for some time. Wright is whoever he is, but at the very least probably a borderline all-star. It's hard to figure out Ike Davis, but I think there's a fair chance he can put up a couple all-star seasons in his age 26 - 30 seasons. Murphy and Tejada should be league average or so. D'Arnaud should be somewhere between league average and all-star within 3 years. The outfield is of course a vortex of suck, but this is where Syndegaard, Montero, Tapia, Mateo, etc. come into play. Syndergaard is already a top 30 prospect on a couple lists, but if he or one of the other pitching prospects can take a step forward, maybe they can be the certerpiece on a trade for a major OF bat next offseason. With some cash to spend, the Mets can sign another OF bat. Then there's just one more OF spot to fill and the hope is one of Duda, Flores, Den Dekker or Lagares prove themselves worthy.
I get that there is a lot of uncertainty is the above, and most teams can construct a scenario that looks something like the above. And being a Mets fan in the 21st century does entail understanding that everything always falls apart. But the Mets do have a fair number of talented players who are under team control for a long time, especially in the rotation. They've been terrible for some time, but for the first time in awhile, I see some light at the end of the tunnel.
Eh - on an organizational basis, neither of them are better than the 6th most promising starting pitcher for 2014, and I think they're probably lower on the totem poll after accounting for some of the pitchers further down in the minor leagues. There has always been speculation that they were better suited to relieve anyway. At this point, I'd rather break them in as relievers and see if they earn the chance for more with their performance. Of course if they can start they would be much more valuable, but I kind of think the chance of either of them becoming effective starters is small enough that it makes sense to start extracting value however we can.
The converse is true, of course. The Mets don't have any good contracts, either (well, Niese, maybe). They have Wright, whose deal could be anything from good to very bad, overall, then a few guys who are starting to get expensive, then a whole lot of guys they can skin, thanks to the players' union. I'm sorry they didn't move on Davis and buy out some of his arbitration years, but that's what happens with a team in turmoil. They could have had Murphy cheap a while back. Not any more, I don't think. Tejada might have been willing to sign a deal. Might still be. There isn't anyone in the system likely to replace him. It was easy to identify Murphy as a guy you'd want to keep around. Davis too.
Nobody wants to hear it but the Mets may start shedding salaries soon. Assuming guys play reasonably well (otherwise, what's the point?) Ike Davis makes 3m in 2013, meaning he'll make around 6m in 2014, his 2nd arb year, if he develops like the Mets need him to this season. Niese makes 5m in 2014. Murphy's making 3m this season and will pull down 5-6m in 2014. Parnell's an arb 2. If he's any good this season he'll be in line for 4m in 2014.
Gee, Tejada, and Turner all go to arbitration for the first time in 2014. The Mets need them to be playing reasonably well to have a shot anything, and they'll each be getting around 40% of a comparable FA salary. If that's 3-4m apiece, we're looking at 30-32m for 7 guys.
Another 8.5m go to Bay and Santana in 2014. Wright gets a cool 20m. We're up to 60m with 17 slots on the 25-man roster to fill. That means guys making around the minimum will really need to step up, because for every Shawn Marcum they have to go and get to fill a rotation slot, they'll have to move someone like Murphy or Tejada in order to pay him, and hand the position vacated to someone making around the minimum, whoever that turns out to be.
$30 million left for 17 guys means that even if you're paying every single one of those guys the minimum, with a 90m payroll you can add one real star FA, or two FA's not quite as good as a guy like Victorino, who got 13m per.
It gets worse in 2015, of course, when 7 guys who they'll need to perform are arb 3 or arb 2. In the absence of anything resembling an outfield, the Mets are going to need just about all their young pitchers to turn into rotation regulars. Harvey and Wheeler are going to have to be very good, near the top of their projections.
They can go the route some teams have taken into the postseason--4 or 5 good, durable pitchers, the kind that don't necessarily throw shutouts, but keep you in games and don't regularly kill the pen; and a solid lineup. It's nice to have stars, of course, but teams have contended without them.
The 2014-15 Mets will probably have enough young arms to fill the pen cheaply with the guys who can't cut it as starters, but Alderson's going to have rediscover the form he showed in his first season when he did such a good job of getting off the rosters guys who didn't contribute. He was good at getting a half win here, a half win there. He's going to have to do that again, particularly with the OF.
Alderson's also not likely to be around past 2015. The club has an option on him for that season, but he's old, and if he doesn't want to stay I doubt the Mets will force him. Only Jeff Wilpon knows what the order of succession is likely to be.
But it's good writing see. The author uses words like cascading and imperturbable.
Why did they not sign Francisco? Not that he's good, but he's better than...whatever they're going to be running out there this year...
It's the story of the Mets' outfield! "IIIIIIIIIII ain't got no bahhhhhhhh-deeee..."
BTW, this article is really only one editing pass away from actually being good. The skeleton is there, it's just far too flowery and verbose. A tough editor could strip away the ######## in twenty minutes and leave you with a very nice, drippingly bitter miniature.
As an outsider, the young talent appears to be coming along nicely, especially Harvey and Wheeler (I tried hard to get Harvey in my DMB league :-).
(Of course, as has often been noted, Bud Selig's support has a lot to do with it. If Selig treated Wilpon like he treated the McCourts, then -- even without the extra McCourt flavoring like the divorce, crazy psychic Russian, etc. -- the NY media would have made this a circus whether the Wilpons acted like clowns or not. But I think the media takes the cue from Selig that there is nothing to really worry about here.)
Re: Met on-field future: Future hazy, ask again. As described well here, so much depends on young pitchers, a catching prospect, and the general blossoming of the farm system such that assets that can be converted into outfielders appear.
I would have said they're three for four (bombastic, laughable, reptilian), certainly the last two; and how is someone who owes $900 confidently claiming "I am debt free!" not bombastic?
Flores' 2012 season was dandy, in the category of 'what he needed to do' while showing power. He's still a contact hitter who in five years hasn't improved his ability to take a walk, though, which pisses me off. And the Mets are still trotting him out to 2B once every two weeks in order to see if they can set back his career with a significant injury. Love to know what's going on in their little heads, what with playing Flores so often at 3B. The good news is that at six foot three and still under two hundred pounds he's got a chance to put on 20 pounds of muscle without hampering his swing. At least the SS experiment ended. This just isn't what a competent organization does with its best hitting prospect.
Hitting well at Binghamton as a 20 year old is great news, of course, but where the hell is he going to play? I imagine he's penciled in to arrive in New York in 2015, but where? The Mets are giving the bulk of the starts at 1B to 25 year olds who are just getting to AA, which of course is insane.
I'd give serious consideration to just giving Flores a year at 1B. If they think he just might be able to handle 2B, surely becoming an average 1Bman is well within reach. If Ike Davis turns into the stud we still hope he will, you have a hell of a trade chit, because Flores has a position and you're not limited in trade partners to AL clubs who don't have a bunch of older players they rotate through the DH slot. If Davis falters, you have a cheap alternative, which the Mets will desperately need. I just hope these Mets aren't thinking something like, 'what the hell, this'll be the year we try Flores at 2B because we just remembered we have Wright at third, and if Flores can't handle 2B, how hard can 1B be?'
But, I really, really think that's what they're thinking.
Fred made a good move when the Mets decided to never go above "slot" in paying draft picks. I think Bud put him on the BFF list for this (and probably at least one other) act.
I have been a fan since '66 and have never been so down on the team's chances. If D'Arnaud, Wheeler and Flores can do something interesting in the bigs by the end of the year I will probably change my outlook. I don't have much interest in going to their games here in DC. Probably would rather see Dickey and Reyes play up in Baltimore.
Why first base and not the OF?
Speaking of 1Bmen, I'd enjoy seeing Allan Dykstra be able to put together some sort of ML career. A .248 BA lifetime in the minors, with a .393 OBP? That's Youkilis country. A little power, too.
Obviously, I haven't seen him play but if they haven't played him a single inning the outfield it's probably a little early to say that he can't hack it as a corner outfielder as long as he's a reasonable athlete. The fact that they haven't put him out there yet makes sense as you want to keep a player at a premium defensive positions as long as you can.
***All right. Just maybe on the Mets, but it would be an example of extraordinary malpractice. As much as this is an organization capable of anything at all, I'd still be surprised if, with all the discussion of how Flores may fail simply because he has no position, that the Mets wouldn't have tried something this obvious. If you thought it was a fall back position, and with a guy flailing at third base, shortstop, and second base, and with a gaping organizational wound in the outfield, you'd send him out there for a couple of weeks to be certain he could handle it. Even the Mets know that it takes years to teach young guys to get jumps on fly balls. I think.
Why first base and not the OF?
His bat doesn't look like it will play at either 1B or corner OF. I'm guessing he's not fast enough for CF.
I think they are right that he needs to be a 2B or 3B to have significant value.
JC, I don't understand why you seem to be saying that because the Mets haven't moved him to the outfield yet means that they don't think that he can handle the position. They may have been keeping him at third because they thought they'd need to replace Wright. He's only 21 years old and there's still time for him to learn the position if he start playing there this year at some point.
His bat doesn't look like it will play at either 1B or corner OF.
He put up a .311/.361/.494 batting line in AA as a 20 year old. I think it's a little harsh to say that the bat won't play in a corner outfield spot. His overall minor league numbers are underwhelming but that's to be expected considering he's been extremely young for the league for most of his career.
His birthday's the first week in August, (he's about as old a 20 as you can be) and that line still doesn't translate to something you want in RF/LF, unless he's a plus defender.
Why not see if he can hack 3B? Keep his value as high as possible. You can always trade him if you can't fit him.
snapper is partly right--it's very tough to move a prospect off a skill position if there's any chance at all he can handle it. A line like Flores put up at Bingo, well, if he can bring that to the majors as a 23 year old (giving him 2 and a half years at AA and AAA--plenty of time), you have a star. Not quite Robby Cano, but close. It's why the Mets kept him for as long as they did at SS, even though he was overmatched. That batting line at SS makes him Derek Jeter, with more power. Who can resist that kind of temptation?
Russlan, it's very, very late for a team to not be putting a prospect without a position at a position you think he might be able to play, If you think he can play it, and the Mets aren't even talking about Flores in the OF at all for 2013. Flores' current trajectory means the Mets are going to promote him to AAA, probably late in the season for a taste, if he continues to hit the way he has. At the same time, they have no plans to play him in the OF, meaning they'd be promoting him to AAA still without having given Flores as much as an inning in LF. Teams just really, really, really tend not to do that if they think a player without a position can handle the outfield.
snapper's not quite right on something else--Flores' bat (and he's hitting about the way his better projections expected--this wasn't completely unexpected) will play in a corner, but it's easy for an organization to tell if a player has the speed to handle the OF. You just put him on a stopwatch. If he can't beat a certain time, you don't bother. You then don't harm his confidence by asking him to do something he can't, and you don't hurt his value.
Sure, if he hits like Strawberry you put him in the OF because unless he's Todd Hundley bad out there, you can live with him, and you have to find a place for him. But, given his speed and instincts, he's -15 in LF. Maybe. And he doesn't project to get close to Straw's bat.
The following is the entire, recent, NYT piece on Flores and the OF. I'm copying the whole thing because this isn't a particularly active thread. I believe the Mets know Flores simply isn't fast enough to play in the OF, and they also know that once they show he can't play out there he becomes a little less valuable in trade.
C'mon. They've already tried him there. He's not very good, his arm's not a good fit, and the position is completely blocked. It doesn't make any sense to give up on a 20 year old with Flores' bat and seek only to maximize his trade value.
You just don't play a very young guy at a position where he's subpar and where you have no place for him at the ML level.
Metsminorleagueblog.com:
You just don't play a very young guy at a position where he's subpar and where you have no place for him at the ML level.
Then put him at 2B.
snapper's not quite right on something else--Flores' bat (and he's hitting about the way his better projections expected--this wasn't completely unexpected) will play in a corner,
You're projecting improvement that hasn't happened yet. A 136 wRC+ in AA (and that is by far the best he's ever hit) does not translate to an above avg. OF, especially given that his D will likely be a negative.
They have. They will. Have you even looked at his BBRef page?
For a 20 year old? In any case, how can you not project improvement for a 20 year old? Please. Stop digging.
I look at Fangraphs for minor leaguers, they have league/park adjusted numbers. They call him a SS. I knew they had tried him at both, didn't know which one was his current position.
For a 20 year old? In any case, how can you not project improvement for a 20 year old? Please. Stop digging.
He's 21 and 7 months now, and his career minor league wRC+ is approx. 110. You're the one pretending a very good 275 PAs in AA means he's a leadpipe cinch to put up a 120 wRC+ in the bigs. Most minor leaguers that perform like Flores never have meaningful careers. He has to improve a lot to even be a league average MLB hitter, and that's not valuable at RF/LF/1B.
I'm not saying he can't improve, it's just no certainty.
The word on Flores is that he's a terrible athlete. I believe that I've seen him called the slowest non-catcher in the minor leagues. If that's true, he's not an OF. As far as his bat is concerned, I think that's an open question. St. Lucie is a hard place to hit, and I think the Mets probably left him there too long - I'd cycle hitting prospects through St. Lucie almost as mucg as I'd try to have pitching prospects avoid Las Vegas. He did well at AA, and finally met expectations. But while he was young for his level, as snapper points out, he wasn't THAT young, and he wasn't THAT great. If we're going to pin any hopes on Flores, I think it has to be with the assumption that there is more in the bat than we have seen. I think there is a fair chance that is true, but the odds are certainly against it. And even if that is true, he still doesn't really have a position that he can play for the Mets, unless the 2b experiment works. And again, the odds are probably against that as well.
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