Screw that. Dickey is the most entertaining player in baseball. Do not trade him.

Trade him for what? Call me crazy, but my opinion would depend on the identity of the player or players coming back.

Schoenfeld's not saying this, but I hate when people dump on the Viola trade. The Mets gave up a whole lot (personally, I was sad to part with David West), but it wasn't Viola's fault that Gary Carter and Keith Hernandez forgot how to play baseball simultaneously in 1989 and the Mets ran into a brick wall called Barry Bonds in their efforts to win the east from 90 on.

but it wasn't Viola's fault that Gary Carter and Keith Hernandez forgot how to play baseball simultaneously in 1989

Carter started to look older in 1986, and really looked bad in 87 and 88, which isn't surprising for an catcher. The Mets were pretty foolish to expect a 35 year old catcher to bounce back in 89. If Sasser could have remembered how to throw a ball back to the pitcher, it would have been less bad.

Hernandez really did fall off the cliff in 89.

Schoenfeld's not saying this, but I hate when people dump on the Viola trade.

This is pretty much a pattern with Mets fans. They dump on any trade that didn't result in- I don't know- maybe a championship without looking at the player's actual contributions. Viola's tenure with the Mets is right in line with the rest of his career- a 110 ERA+ with the Mets after a 111 ERA+ with the Twins amid a 112 ERA+ for his career. His unadjusted ERA is actually better with the Mets (3.31) than with the Twins or the Red Sox (3.86 and 3.40 respectively). He had a great season with New York in 1990 (20-12 with a 141 ERA+ while leading the league in IP). He had a down year in '91, the Mets let him go in free agency and then he bounced back for several more good years with Boston. The '91 Mets weren't going to win the World Series with Aguilera and Tapani any more than with Viola (they finished 5th in the NL East that year). It was a fine trade that wasn't enough to overcome the team's other deficiencies.

They just aren’t anywhere close to being bad enough to justify punting the next few years . . .

Not to be a killjoy, but the Mets were 24 games out of 1st last season. Too much focus on that second Wildcard?

Is Dickey a "true knuckleballer"? I thought he mixed more FB's and other offspeed pitches in with the knuckler (which would make him not so much of a good risk into his 40's).

I don't see the point in trading awesome players.

Not to be a killjoy, but the Mets were 24 games out of 1st last season. Too much focus on that second Wildcard?

Things can change fast in baseball, no team should ever plan for extended suckage. Especially not one with resources.

The problem is that the Mets can be a contender only if a significant majority of their major players hit their 80th percentile projection, but none of them hit their 20th percentile projection. That's not so crazy as to be beyond the realm of possibility, but it's very unlikely. So I understand the articles that argue the Mets are not all that far away, but I think chasing a highly unlikely outcome is a fool's errand.

Jim Bowden (warning: source) thinks the Mets will trade Dickey to the Royals or Angels for 2 mid-level prospects. I'm not terribly jazzed about that. I think the Mets should trade Dickey, but they have to go big or go home. If the market doesn't yield anything big enough, then re-sign him.

Jim Bowden (warning: source) thinks the Mets will trade Dickey to the Royals or Angels for 2 mid-level prospects.

Putting aside that this would be a bad baseball move, I hope that the Mets' preoccupation with avoiding negative headlines is working in our favor here. That would be a public relations disaster.

Screw that. Dickey is the most entertaining player in baseball. Do not trade him.

Damn right.

Trading Dickey for 2 mid-level prospects would be an insanely stupid move. I therefore expect it to happen within the week. (Aside: has a player other than Viola been traded after winning the Cy Young, and what was gotten for him?)

Viola gets dumped on in part because he was supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle that would let the Mets breeze through the postseason undefeated on a wave of shutouts. It's ridiculous that people dog athletes for not being as good they hoped. Did people think Viola was floating the ball to the plate because he was distracted, thinking about what yacht polish to buy?

Met fans (and brass) throught they were getting the Sweet Music of his age 27-28 seasons, the guy who won 41 games with ERA+s in the 150s and with a Cy Young award to show for it. He was an average starter after he came over, then had a very strong year, was around average again, and the Mets no longer loved their shiny new toy and let him walk from The Worst Team Money Can Buy. Mets fans hated, hated, hated that team, especially coming as it did on the heels of the Hernandez-Carter Mets, and some of the players caught unwarranted flack for simply being on that club. Remember Vince Coleman's anger at the Mets keeping him out of the Hall of Fame by reducing his steals, the firecrackers thrown at fans, the bleach in the bullpen, David Cone letting it all hang out...?

I don't remember salaries--was the 3/13 Viola got from the Red Sox in '92 a premium deal back then?

I don't remember salaries--was the 3/13 he got from the Red Sox in '92 a premium deal back then?

Baseball Reference has him third in AL salary in 1992, so I'd say yes.

Looking further, he would have been third in NL salary also, so fifth overall in MLB. Not bad for a disappointment like him.

Aside: has a player other than Viola been traded after winning the Cy Young, and what was gotten for him?

Hell, the Indians did it twice in two years. As for part 2 of your question: nothing that amounted to a whole lot.

Did people think Viola was floating the ball to the plate because he was distracted, thinking about what yacht polish to buy?

Nice.

Nobody minds a big trade for a superstar (or even a very functional player like Donn Clendenon) but when you deplete your young talent for someone you don't need it's destructive. The Mets are one of the all-time practitioners of this:
Otis and Johnson for Foy
Mitchell et al for McReynolds
Half a pitching staff for Viola
5 players for Alomar
All of those deals were unnecessary "lily-gilding" moves. The position players replaced productive platoons or in Alomar's case, forced Alfonzo to move from 2B to 3B hurting the team at two spots. The Viola deal was a reaction to the Expos trading for Langston, which caused hysteria in the tabloids. And none of them worked.

History is never in the Mets' favor in trades. That's why it's so silly to read "if they trade ----- for "prospects" they'll win everything in 2 years". Still waiting for the championships they won with Doug Flynn, Dan Norman and Ryan Thompson.

(Aside: has a player other than Viola been traded after winning the Cy Young, and what was gotten for him?)

Pedro, for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr.

And Clemens, after two straight with Toronto, yielding David Wells, Homer Bush and Graeme Lloyd.

Let me rephrase the question: Has any Cy Young winner not been traded immediately after winning it?

@18--nice!

Yeah, I did mean that as rhetorical, and to suggest that teams who trade Cy winners hardly get guaranteed returns.

@15--Bill James really called the McReynolds trade against the Mets. A very solid player, but not nearly as good as the team thought ("a franchise player", they said, iirc), and the kind of guy who was likely to decline very quickly once he reached 30.

I think the Mets should trade Dickey, but they have to go big or go home. If the market doesn't yield anything big enough, then re-sign him.

I agree.

I think the Mets should trade Dickey, but they have to go big or go home. If the market doesn't yield anything big enough, then re-sign him.

I was about to agree, as AJM, but the "big" part carries a lot of subjective weight here.

I'd be more specific - if they can't get a blue chip outfield or catching prospect, they should be very circumspect about whether they're upgrading the team by trading Dickey.

I'd agree with the (strong) blue chip player part, but not not the prospect. I don't see the gamble on the loss of definite awesome and very likely high value being worth someone who is possibly going to turn into no one.

I was about to agree, as AJM, but the "big" part carries a lot of subjective weight here.

He means a top OF like a Jason Bay.

Let me rephrase the question: Has any Cy Young winner not been traded immediately after winning it?

Greg Maddux. He just signed elsewhere when the Cubs lowballed him.

joe bivens / 7: yes, he is. besides, they almost all mix in other pitches for effect.

@26: true, but the harder knuckler (avg speed is around 77 mph) and the lack of a UCL are worrisome.

So, everyone knows about the hs girl who was taught the knuckleball by Joe Niekro when he was her little league coach, and she's now an all-star? Great story.

edit: I just noticed this in Schoenfeld's article.

"Trouble is, with Wright now signed and the Mets operating like a midmarket franchise with an estimated $80 million budget, they may not be able to afford Dickey."

80m? Really? Has it gotten that bad?

i'd agree to that, jack - with the caveat that we don't know as much about fast knuckler as we do slow ones, wrt longevity - as opposed to knowing that those dudes will have less staying power. (though i imagine that they would - not that that should be an issue during the life of this contract)

as for chelsea baker - she'll try out for her hs team this spring (she's a soph); obviously, that would be great if she can continue to succeed.

I'd be more specific - if they can't get a blue chip outfield or catching prospect, they should be very circumspect about whether they're upgrading the team by trading Dickey.

Yeah, this is basically what I mean. I get that a "big" prospect is in the eye of the beholder, but I'm thinking along the lines of the Beltran deal, where the Mets held out for one very good prospect, instead of settling for 1 B prospect, 1 C prospect and 1 non-prospect. Do the Reds want pitchers? They don't seem to have much use for Mesoraco?

In any case, there is no conceivable reality where this will happen, but in another universe, shouldn't the Mets be in on Josh Hamilton? Realistically, the Mets only have a chance of competing if they can make massive upgrades. The OF is a vortex of suck, so replacing the giant sucking sound with Josh Hamilton would make an enormous difference. Because Hamilton has a different risk profile from most players, he is likely to get a shorter contract with a high AAV. Those contracts often make more sense in any case, but that might create a nice organizational balance with Wright's deal, which was longer with a lower AAV. If the Mets backload the deal a bit, they can reduce the hit in 2013, and the Mets have so few commitments in 2014, they could make the deal work even in a reduced budget. Also, signing Hamilton could really sell tickets, both through increased fan enthusiasm early in the season and more meaningful games late in the season. Again, I get that it will never happen, but I'm not sure it's the wrong idea, even in this universe.

I wonder if Travis d'Arnaud could be pried from the Blue Jays. If Dickey were under a longer contract and were younger, it'd be a perfect fit. As it is, it'd probably be a stretch. But, the Jays do have two other plausible catchers, and they are going for it. We could throw in more stuff, of course.

I actually wouldn't have a problem with Hamilton on a short-term contract. As you say, it'd only be money, he'd be filling a huge hole, and as long as he didn't #### up, I do think he'd be very popular and bring excitement. But it won't happen, and I suspect he gets a long-term deal anyway, just because the free agent class is so weak.

I wonder if Travis d'Arnaud could be pried from the Blue Jays. If Dickey were under a longer contract and were younger, it'd be a perfect fit. As it is, it'd probably be a stretch. But, the Jays do have two other plausible catchers, and they are going for it.

I like your description of John Buck as a "plausible catcher"...Anthropolus just made his bag deal without surrendering his top prospect, so I doubt he moves him to acquire Dickey. I have thought for a while that Arencibia would be a good fit for the Mets, but I have no idea what it would take to get him, and there are players who would probably provide similar value on the FA market. I read that the Mets could be interested in snagging Flores, now that the Nats non-tendered him.

I read that the Mets could be interested in snagging Flores, now that the Nats non-tendered him.

What are Jeff Keppinger, Lasting Milledge, and Henry Owens doing?

I have thought for a while that Arencibia would be a good fit for the Mets, but I have no idea what it would take to get him, and there are players who would probably provide similar value on the FA market.

I've liked Arencibia, but he has posted an OBP comfortably below .300 in each of the last 2 years. I don't think you give up anything of significant value to get him.

What are Jeff Keppinger, Lasting Milledge, and Henry Owens doing?

Keppinger has actually had a pretty nice career.

Milledge is in Japan.

Owens appears to be out of baseball - I know he had at least one PED suspension...

Matt Lindstrom, on the other hand, would have been useful to have around from time to time.

I've liked Arencibia, but he has posted an OBP comfortably below .300 in each of the last 2 years. I don't think you give up anything of significant value to get him.

I don't know how great a glove he has, but 1) power out of the catcher spot from a player making near the league minimum isn't bad, and 2) he could still take a small step forward as a hitter. That said, Citi's probably not the best place for him to do it.

Rosenthal hints at past talks involving Niese. If the Jays think they can get that sort of player for Arencibia, more power to them. But Alderson doesn't make that deal.

Keppinger has actually had a pretty nice career.

It wasn't meant as a serious comment at all. Just three Met prospects from the Mets recent past. I don't think it'd be a great idea to bench Thole. He was awful last year but he entered the season with a .350 OBP. He's not going to be an allstar but I still think he has a shot of being a good starter.

Yeah, Arencibia to me has an insufficiently low ceiling to justify giving up a star for him. I'm just as happy with our OBP/no-power catcher as I would be with a power/no-OBP catcher.

Hearkening back to what I mentioned earlier, even if it makes sense to folks like us that d'Arnaud is worth more than Dickey, the general public wouldn't see it that way. I don't think WFAN callers would be thrilled that the Mets traded the Cy Young winner for a minor leaguer, never mind if the Mets threw in more besides. There would also be a ton of pressure on d'Arnaud going forward.

So, this probably doesn't work. I dunno who else is looking to trade quality young catchers, though.

Would you guys do a Dickey for Derek Holland trade? Would the Rangers?

I'm not looking to flip Dickey for a pitcher if I'm the Mets. Maybe if they're planning to trade Niese for a significant piece, Holland fills that hole.

Holland's signed for 4 years/27 million with two option years that are pretty reasonable if he's still a solid starter. He's a lefthander with an average fastball velocity of 93.0 mph last year. He's put up a 105 ERA+ the last three seasons and he'd be a very good fit a Citifield.

I could envision a rotation of the Harvey/Niese/Wheeler/Holland getting to the Mets into the playoffs as soon as 2014. Use the money you save on Dickey to get a hitter or two.

Apparently, the Mets are "getting serious" about trading Dickey, with the Rangers and Royals seen as the most likely destinations. Who do you think the Mets would likely target? As I said, I personally would be happy with Holland but don't know much about either team's minor league system.

I could envision a rotation of the Harvey/Niese/Wheeler/Holland getting to the Mets into the playoffs as soon as 2014. Use the money you save on Dickey to get a hitter or two.

What are you going to do about a lineup, though?

What are you going to do about a lineup, though?

I think Ike Davis is a good hitter and Wright has been re-signed. Murphy and Tejada are averagish for their positions, and I think 2013 will tell us whether or not Thole can be relied on as such as well. The Mets are freeing up a lot of money with the expiring contracts of Santana and Bay and only have Wright and Niese under contact for 2014. Even if they don't increase payroll, the Mets will have money to spend to add a hitter or two.

By the beginning of the 2014 seasons, Alderson et al will have been in charge for 3.5 years. They need to add some talent to the roster because Minaya can only be blamed for so long.

That's a small window if payroll is dropping to 80m. It's the only year where a lot of the young guys are in their first or second arb years. Santana gets 5m in 2014. Does Beltran? For some reason Cot's omits Carlos, but has Bay getting 3m in 2014.

With the Red Sox having 49 catchers, I wonder if the Mets can get Lavarnway from them.

I would just re-sign Shoppach and call it a day.

That's a small window if payroll is dropping to 80m.

Towards season end, Alderson said 100MM. We'll see.