Profar and somebody interesting for a three-month rental? Crazy talk. The Rangers can get Hamels without moving Profar, if they're interested. The Phillies are unlikely to get a top 20 prospect, let alone a top 1 prospect, for Hamels.

The Mets got Wheeler (rated about 50 at the time) for Beltran...

Let's see

Kazmir was top 10 when traded for Zambrano
Edwin Jackson was top 10 the year before he was traded, but his prospect status was cratering (lance Carter rand Danys Baez)
Andy Marte- traded for Edgar Renteria and then (along with others) for Bard Crisp and Riske
Cameron Maybin was top 10 when he was part of the Miguel Cabrera trade..

Remember Michael Ynoa? What ever happened to him?

Not to pile on but ... that was pretty silly, Edmundo.

Watch this, Profur gets traded for vastly less than everyone but Edmundo thinks reasonable- then who will look silly????

As far as I can tell, BA's #1 has never been traded (while ranked #1)

Guys in the top 10 do get traded every now and then...
The worst (from the POV of the team trading the prospect) the day it was made is likely the Kazmir/Zambrano deal

Guys in the top 10 do get traded every now and then...

Delmon Young #3 in 2007, traded after season
Andrew Miller #10 in 2007, traded after season
Andy Marte #9 in 2005, traded after season
Hanley Ramirez #10 in 2005, traded after season
Carlos Pena #5 in 2002, traded in July
Brad Penny #5 in 1999, traded in July
Paul Konerko #2 in 1998, traded in July
Ruben Rivera #9 in 1997, traded in April

sure i remember michael ynoa - couldn't hardly believe that billy beane would spend that kind of money. the guy has been injured pretty much constantly and hasn't made it out of short season league and he's almost 21 and he signed when he was 16

same thing happend to the astros with chia-jen lo - although he was cheaper and he started at AA

speaking of the astros, i am not getting why jonathan singleton is rated as high as 46. He's got an 868 OPS as a 1B in a hitters league and has made 8 errors already. doesn't steal bases. must be the walks - lots of them to go with all those Ks

and jarred cosart? really? that 1.48 WHIP to go with 4 walks/9 and 7 K/9 is so very impressive. i guess if you throw 2 good games in a row, it gets you onto the prospect list.

i notice that dallas keuchel, now with the ML club for 2 starts, never made it onto the list. interesting. at least he's not putting delino deshields and all his stolen bases here just because he was a first round pick.

Delmon Young #3 in 2007, traded after season (traded after putting up a .288/.316/.408 full season in the majors- for a guy who'd been #21 before that year and had arguably a better 2007 than Young- this was essentially a challenge trade)

Andrew Miller #10 in 2007, traded after season (along with Maybin for Cabrera- Miller had spit the bit in 2 MLB months in 2007)

Andy Marte #9 in 2005, traded after season (was #14 to start 2006, basically fell apart after the trade

Hanley Ramirez #10 in 2005, traded after season (was #30 to start the next year- so basically he was 30th when traded)

Carlos Pena #5 in 2002, traded in July (1 great prospect for 4 decent ones... 1 top 10 for 4 50-100 types...)

Brad Penny #5 in 1999, traded in July (was putting up a 4.80 ERA halfway through the year when traded- think Shelby Miller getting traded now... was traded for an MLB closer- any way this was likely a case of Az overvaluing someone with a nice shiny closer label

Paul Konerko #2 in 1998, traded in July (Read quite a bit about him at the time- this was as clear a case of a team not valuing their own guy as much as other people did- also played quite poorly his first 150 or so MLB PAs before the trade- like Penny was traded for a "closer"

Ruben Rivera #9 in 1997, traded in April- BA ranked him #9 despite the fact that he'd played poorly the year before in AAA- opposite situation than the Dodgers/Konerko- The Yankees own evaluation of Ruben was quite a bit better than BA's.. Main return was Irabu...

Basically the "bloom" was somewhat off for most of these guys when traded- the most anomalous trade was Pena's- the most similar trade you could make involving Profar would be something like Profur for Matt Harvey, Wilmer Flores, J. Familia and Jefry Marte, or something like that.

A Profar + "someone interesting" would be analogous to the Maybin/Miller deal- which fetched quite a bit more value than a 3 month Cole Hamels' rental

speaking of the astros, i am not getting why jonathan singleton is rated as high as 46.

1: He's 20 in AA
2: He's 7th in the league in OPS, everyone above him (except for Oscar Taveras) is older than he is
3: What he's hitting is typical for him
4: BA has Singleton rated even higher- 2 years running

Remember Michael Ynoa? What ever happened to him?

There was a sighting a few days ago in the AZL: A's prospect Michael Ynoa's inning vs. the Rangers: sat 92-94, topped 95 twice. Mixed in a few curveballs and changeups.

To answer a few notes:

1. No, Carlos Santana was in the middle of his breakout year with the Dodgers when he was traded.
2. The Rangers also have a 2B prospect (Roughned Odor) on the list at #75.
3. I don't think we can compare any previous season Prospect for Veteran trades since the rules for draft compensation have changed. Teams are going to be playing it by ear and establishing a new market value now.
4. Andy Marte was traded twice in that same offseason where he was ranked #9, I think. From Atlanta to Boston to Cleveland IIRC.
5. Michel Ynoa had TJ Surgery.

2. The Rangers also have a 2B prospect (Roughned Odor) on the list at #75.

That's obviously a made-up name. Probably on the list for copyright reasons. Kind of like the reason Turkey is on maps.

Zach Wheeler went from #35 to #13. Not a bad return for half a season of Carlos Beltran. Didn't realize he had only given up 1 HR in 85 IP at AA this year.

EDIT: Didn't see the posts on Hamels but the Beltran-Wheeler trade is instructive. Wheeler was the #55 prospect before 2011 and the #35 prospect afterwards. There were no other players included and the Mets paid Beltran's salary IIRC. That was considered a very good return for the Mets, and with the change in compensation rules, the Phillies should probably expect to get back less for Hamels.

i don't think these situations are entirely analogous. beltran had serious injury issues and was a very old 34, whereas hamels is 28 years old, with good mechanics, great performance, a world series MVP (in addition to an NLCS MVP), and no significant injury history since he got to the major leagues 7 years ago. he's made 30+ starts in each of the last 4 years, he made 28 the year before, and is on pace to have another 30+ this year.


also, i think it's unfair to assume that hamels is only a rental. i don't think it's entirely unimaginable that he'll sign an extension as a condition of his being traded. i think he wants to test the market to see what he's worth, but i also think that if texas would throw up the right number, a deal would get done.

also, i think it's unfair to assume that hamels is only a rental. i don't think it's entirely unimaginable that he'll sign an extension as a condition of his being traded. i think he wants to test the market to see what he's worth, but i also think that if texas would throw up the right number, a deal would get done.

If Texas has to "throw up the right number" to get a deal done, he's a rental. Hamels isn't signing for below market value in all likelihood so unless an extension is part of the trade I wouldn't expect any trading partner to treat him as anything other than a rental.

i don't think these situations are entirely analogous. beltran had serious injury issues and was a very old 34, whereas hamels is 28 years old, with good mechanics, great performance, a world series MVP (in addition to an NLCS MVP), and no significant injury history since he got to the major leagues 7 years ago. he's made 30+ starts in each of the last 4 years, he made 28 the year before, and is on pace to have another 30+ this year.


also, i think it's unfair to assume that hamels is only a rental. i don't think it's entirely unimaginable that he'll sign an extension as a condition of his being traded. i think he wants to test the market to see what he's worth, but i also think that if texas would throw up the right number, a deal would get done.

All of this is true. Still not getting Profar for him.

Using BBRef I found pitchers with 4.5 WAR in a single season on multiple franchises 1995-2012 and who they were traded for. Caveats abound (pitcher perceived abilities, other players in deal, in-season growth/decline of prospects) but this is a place to start. 6 of the 13 received no top 100 players in return and three others did not receive a top 50 propsect.

Colon 2002 - No top 100 prospects (albeit a great package in retrospect with Lee, Sizemore and Phillips)
Cone 1995 - No top 100 prospects
Sabathia 2008 - One top 100 prospect (#23, Laporta)
Neagle 1996 - One top 100 prsopect (#11 Schmidt)
Oswalt 2010 - No top 100 prospects
Harden 2008 - One top 100 prsopect (#82 Gallagher)
Big Unit 1998 - No top 100 prospects (like the Colon deal, this proved solid with Garcia, Halama and Guillen going to Seattle)
Wells 1995 - One top 100 prospect (#68 Curtis Goodwin)
Lee 2009 - Three top 100 prospects (#52 Carrasco, #66 Marson, #69 Donald)
Lee 2010 - One top 100 prospect (#13 Smoak - allegedly could have had #4 prospect Montero instead)
Garcia 2004 - One top 100 prospect (#25 Reed)
Schilling 2000 - No top 100 prospects
Fister 2011 - No top 100 prospects

i don't think it's entirely unimaginable that he'll sign an extension as a condition of his being traded.

Hamels has no right to impose conditions to his being traded. Plus, the opportunity to sign somebody to a market value extension if they are so inclined is not a terrible valuable thing.

Hamels is great, and the Phillies should get a very good package for him. In theory, the Phillies should get more than the Mets got for Beltran (and likely will) but the Giants overpaid for Beltran. I don't think one can assume that, because Hamels is X% better than Beltran, the Phillies will get a package that is X% better.

@ 47: In 2015 Kinsler will be 33. I doubt the Rangers will be satisfied with him as their 2B. Though they have kept Young around so perhaps.

i don't think these situations are entirely analogous. beltran had serious injury issues and was a very old 34, whereas hamels is 28 years old, with good mechanics, great performance, a world series MVP (in addition to an NLCS MVP), and no significant injury history since he got to the major leagues 7 years ago. he's made 30+ starts in each of the last 4 years, he made 28 the year before, and is on pace to have another 30+ this year.

Others have already addressed the contract point you made, but the difference between a 34-year-old and a 28-year-old is pretty irrelevant for a 3-month rental, as are Hamels' mechanics. Beltran did miss a little time with the Giants, but he's now putting up a 161 OPS+ and starting on the All-Star game at age 35 -- to call him a "very old 34" seems to be overstating the case.

@ 65: I think the idea is that the Rangers (or whoever) would insist on having an agreement with Hamels in place before making a trade (much like the Phillies negotiated an extension with Halladay before trading for him a few years ago).

Using BBRef I found pitchers with 4.5 WAR in a single season on multiple franchises 1995-2012 and who they were traded for. Caveats abound (pitcher perceived abilities, other players in deal, in-season growth/decline of prospects) but this is a place to start. 6 of the 13 received no top 100 players in return and three others did not receive a top 50 propsect.

not midseason deals, but:

Mulder (coming off a 2.8 WAR year) was traded for a #32 and a guy (Haren) who was inexplicably unrated by BA
Hudson was traded for a #43 prospect (and a former #6)
Holliday was traded for a 25, 29 & 81 (and its that #81 who's starting to percolate)

Adrian Gonzalez was only ranked #31 when the Marlins traded him for Ugueth Urbina, even though at the time, he was just three years removed from being the No. 1 overall pick.

@65: I think the idea is that the Rangers (or whoever) would insist on having an agreement with Hamels in place before making a trade (much like the Phillies negotiated an extension with Halladay before trading for him a few years ago).

That makes more sense, though I can't remember the last time that happened in mid-season. Players that close to free agency don't generally give it up, unless they get to pick their destination, which would bring down the price in the first place.

Mulder (coming off a 2.8 WAR year) was traded for a #32 and a guy (Haren) who was inexplicably unrated by BA

Haren no longer had rookie status due to his service time in 2003 and 2004.

Since Hamels is only a few months away from FA, he should be able to get a deal that will pay him for nearly all of his anticipated value, if he signs a contract extension. That means that teams should be (if what they're interested in is making money, which, since they're businesses, I suppose they are) more-or-less indifferent to giving him an extension. (Unless, that is, they think Hamels has more anticipated value than he thinks he has.) So, probably, teams shouldn't be willing to give up much more for Hamels with an extension than they would for Hamels as a rental.

Heh, I guess I got a little fanboyish. I hope Amaro goes for quality over quantity, but I have no faith in his ability to get a quality package (cough, Cliff Lee, cough).

Holliday was traded for a 25, 29 & 81 (and its that #81 who's starting to percolate)

*Halladay. This was confusing me.

@ 47: In 2015 Kinsler will be 33. I doubt the Rangers will be satisfied with him as their 2B. Though they have kept Young around so perhaps.

Kinsler is a better player than Young ever was due to his strong secondary skills, but yeah, it wouldn't be shocking for a 33 year old 2B to be in decline. Where else would they play him though? No guarantee he could hold down CF, and he's not going anywhere til 2017...

Haren no longer had rookie status due to his service time in 2003 and 2004.

Haren was never in BA's top 100

Jesse Foppert was drafted two slots after Haren in 2001, Mike Gosling was drafted about 5 slots before (all in 2nd round)

in 2002 Foppert pitched 140 innings in the minors with a 183/56 K/BB ratio
Gosling pitched 166 innings with a 115/62 K/BB ratio
Haren had a 171/31 ratio in 194 IP

entering 2003, BA ranked Foppert #5, Gosling #59 and Haren was not in the top 100


Brandon league was also taken in the 2nd round that year, he climbed as high as #69 on BA's list- in 2005, coming off a year where he went 104ip, with a90/40 K/bb ratio in AA


Mike Hinckley was taken in the 3rd round in 2001- he was arnke d#96 in 2003- based on a year where he had a 66/30 k/bb ratio in 92 innings in the NEW YORK PENN LEAGUE (to be fair he had an inexplicably low 1.37 era there- his peripherals were more of a 3.50/400 era pitcher, his BABIP was not noticeable low either) The next year Hinckley's peripherals improved across the board- and his ERA doubled- in 2003/04 Hinckley's minor league numbers were similar to Haren's 2002-2004 numbers- similar but not as good- BA ranked Hinckley 60th and 29th...

To be fair to BA, if they screwed up on Haren- it was only 1 year as he did lose his rookie eligibility after 2003, but I'm reasonably certain they screwed up nonetheless.

To be fair to BA, if they screwed up on Haren- it was only 1 year as he did lose his rookie eligibility after 2003, but I'm reasonably certain they screwed up nonetheless.

Given what he has become that is undoubtedly true but it's hardly unusual. Prospect rankings are an imperfect science to say the least.

Baseball America has released their mid-season top 50 also (subscription required). Their top 10;

Dylan Bundy (#4 Sickels)
Jurickson Profar (#1)
Wil Myers (#2)
Taijuan Walker (#5)
Danny Hultzen (#7)
Gerrit Cole (#6)
Tyler Skaggs (#20)
Jose Fernandez (#39)
Manny Machado (#8)
Zack Wheeler (#13)