I thought it would be much closer.

Well, trying to see the bright side: This is a great player who had a great year. It's pretty clear he didn't just fluke into this honor. He earned it on a number of levels. That's the positive.

Feel free to join-in with the Most Meritorious Player 2012 vote over at the Hall of Merit if you want to offer a polite gesture of disagreement in the direction of the BBWAA.

I like it when Harold Reynold says, "Forget those numbers. When you win the Triple Crown, it's kinda like the trump card. Boom!" Ah, Harold, the Triple Crown is based on numbers.

The down-ballot vote for Raul Ibanez, from Detroit no less, is an excellent example of the species.

Gee, this is a shock. Score one for blind worship to a flukey three-headed piece of trivia.

"But he finished first in ALL THREE categories! Don't you see!? That means we should suspend logic and be ok with the result!"

Cano left off 4 ballots.
Jim Johnson with a 3rd.
Raul Ibanez with a vote.

I just can't even...

As usual, it's the "anti-stats" folks basing their arguments and decisions solely on a handful of highly flawed statistics.

I posted this on August 24th:

There is still time left in the season. I'm biased, but I could see Mi. Cabrera finishing strong, lifting the Tigers into the division title, and getting a lot of MVP support. I know what you all say about his defense, but there's a narrative (goes back to 3rd to make room for Prince), Dan Dickerson & Jim Price keep telling me he's playing fine defense, and the Tigers have really been lacking this year in many things that are not Cabrera. Add in a triple crown chase.... But, I <3 Cabrera.

I'm so smart!

Can I again please register my disgust with the pedantic component of 'Valuable'??

Nice work by Akron's Sheldon Ocker, who had Trout third behind Adrian Beltre.

Feinsand had Jeter 3rd, Soriano 8th and Cano missing.

John Lowe had Ibanez 10th and Cano missing.

The dude who voted for Ibanez either owes him something, or didn't submit his ballot until the postseason.

He is the first rookie to finish second in MVP balloting. The award was won by two first-year players – Red Sox center fielder Fred Lynn in 1975 and Seattle Mariners right fielder Ichiro Suzuki in 2001.

...and Trout had a MUCH better season than either Lynn or Suzuki did, but his team didn't, so he gets left out in the cold (sigh).

Yes, I think many of us saw the writing on the wall for this result, so I can't say I'm surprised, but it is still disappointing that there is such a long way to go before the old guard dies out and gets replaced by some writers who actually follow the sport of baseball.

gaming

ballots have to be in immediately after the last game.

at least that was the rule

OK, who's currently responsible for taking people's children away? I have a few assignments.

If the MLB Network is any indication, they should take Miguel Cabrera's child away before he blinds his dad.

Eh. If this is the worst the MVP balloting gets, I can't find myself complaining too much.

gaming

ballots have to be in immediately after the last game.

at least that was the rule

Yes, I know. I meant it rather facetiously.

Let's get to the real important question:

Why is the BBWAA's website so crappy?

gaming

sorry. another poster the other day was not aware of that

Why is the BBWAA's website so crappy?

You should have seen it a few short years ago.

You should have seen it a few short years ago.

Was it as bad as this website?

http://www.dolekemp96.org/main.htm

[No political statement intended.]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

Was it as bad as this website?

http://www.dolekemp96.org/main.htm

Infinitely worse. It literally hurt your eyes to look at it. I've seen a lot of terrible web design, but the old BBWA site was in an entirely different league.

I was one of the "Cabrera's gonna win and I'm not gonna get worked up because the Triple Crown is pretty cool" people and...I'm worked up. First on 22/28 ballots?!?!?

I would’ve voted for Trout but I’m not especially moved to anger by this result.

For one, nobody is sure that Trout was actually worth 25 runs or whatever on defense. That’s probably an outlier, either in performance or measurement. Also, although Trout had a higher bWAR than Cabrera, is it really likely that he’s a better hitter than Cabrera? I know that what happened happened, but Trout could have a Hall of Fame career and never have a year on offense close to this one. He was almost certainly hit-lucky. (I’d love to be proven wrong and have Trout sustain this level of performance and improve on it over the next 15 years.) Those hits have value and so I think they should factor into the decision, but I can understand arguing that they shouldn’t.

Finally, non-performance criteria for MVP is obviously not very popular around here, but Cabrera’s shockingly competent move to third base allowed the Tigers to sign another elite hitter. I think that’s a variety of intangibility that’s, well, more than a little bit tangible.

And Triple Crowns ARE cool.

Looking at the voting, I thought "Alex Rios? Wasn't he really terrible just last year?" And yes, he was, but he had a great year this year. In fact he's had some extremely wild swings stat-wise the last four years. (Meaning the White Sox should be worried for 2013.)

Infinitely worse. It literally hurt your eyes to look at it. I've seen a lot of terrible web design, but the old BBWA site was in an entirely different league.

Twas a vomituous green, IIRC. Ben Hamper's a Tiger fan, AFAICT, but he's probably not pleased.

His team made the playoffs, his top competitor's team did not. He switched to a more difficult position before this season to make room for another All-Star and handled it like a pro. He won the freaking Triple Crown. If you truly believed Miguel Cabrera wasn't going to win...

I would’ve voted for Trout but I’m not especially moved to anger by this result.

Same here on both counts. Ideally I would've given it to both of them, since neither of them was undeserving.

Logic, logic, logic. Logic is the beginning of wisdom, Saavik, not the end. Do not grieve for Trout, for his day will come. Do not disown your mother, either.

Feinsand's justification on Twitter for leaving Cano off is that he was inconsistent and was below-average with RISP. Cano had a 125 OPS+ with RISP, Jeter 113. Adam Jones, who was 5th on Feinsand's ballot, had 108. Speaking of inconsistent...

-- MWE

Eh, Bob Fosse (Cabaret) beat out Francis Ford Coppola (The Godfather) for a Best Director Oscar. Now that's unconscionable.

I am not worked up about it, because after so many years of absurd MVP results, you just have to accept that the MVP award is just a piece of BBWAA fluffery, and not attach so much importance to it. Essentially, the sportswriters, who we regularly excoriate as a group for their complete absence of analytical and logical skills, did something as a group demonstrating a complete absence of analytical and logical skills. Yawn.

Frankly, if this helps Cabrera's HoF case, I am happy for it. When dealing with something essentially inconsequential, the ends can justify the means.

For one, nobody is sure that Trout was actually worth 25 runs or whatever on defense.

Nobody's sure Cabrera was only -5 runs on defense either. And are you honestly questioning whether Trout is a better defender than Cabrera?

That’s probably an outlier, either in performance

Whether it's an outlier in performance or not is immaterial to his value in 2012. As to measurement error, Cabrera is as likely to have benefited from it as Trout.

is it really likely that he’s a better hitter than Cabrera?

Again, whether he is as good a hitter as Cabrera in some true talent sense is immaterial to their respective values in 2012.

Cabrera’s shockingly competent move to third base

What's your evidence he was competent? What's your evidence this competence will continue? Shouldn't you apply the same standards as you applied to Trout?

Cabrera's move to 3B did not allow the Tigers to sign Fielder, a simple move to DH would have accomplished that. His move to 3B allowed the Tigers to put Delmon Young at DH. And the tangibility of that move is that Young (and the Tigers' RF) were so terrible, the team likely would have been better off keeping Inge at 3B, Cabrera at 1B and Fielder at DH. That's not Cabrera's fault of course ... any more than it was Trout's fault that he was kept in the minors for a month or he's not as amazing a CF as Bourjos or that his team didn't make the playoffs.

It's also strange to note the potential flukiness of Trout's season while Cabrera won the MVP only due to the fluke that he led in 3 categories in the same season. (Yes, he's always a threat in those categories but that he had a season where they all came together is still a fluke.)

Cabrera won the MVP only due to the fluke that he led in 3 categories in the same season. (Yes, he's always a threat in those categories but that he had a season where they all came together is still a fluke.)

I know what you're saying, but I don't think "fluke" is the right word. Cabrera didn't get lucky.

So glad Cabrera won the Mike Trout Award.

I know what you're saying, but I don't think "fluke" is the right word. Cabrera didn't get lucky.

Sure he did. Bautista got injured in June.

At the end of August, Trout was in the driver's seat for the MVP, especially since the Tigers were scuffling. But he had a rather lackluster September and the Angels missed the postseason, while Cabrera remained consistent and Detroit overtook the White Sox.

Had the Angels made the playoffs, Trout likely would have won the MVP regardless of what the Tigers did. But neither Trout nor the Angels came up big down the stretch, and that's probably what did him in. It doesn't diminish what was a helluva season.

So it turns out I really don't care about the BBWAA's awards anymore. I thought I'd be outraged, but I'm not!

At the end of August, Trout was in the driver's seat for the MVP, especially since the Tigers were scuffling. But he had a rather lackluster September and the Angels missed the postseason

.289/.400/.500 (151 OPS+), 7/1 SB/CS, 23 runs in 30 games, Trout playing defense in the outfield. Your standards for luster are pretty high.

Frankly, I am impressed that Cano finished higher in the balloting than Jeter. I guess I have low expectations of the BBWA.

Uh, you guys aren't actually surprised are you? The triple crown was the key. As I said the other day, if Trout wins the batting title or Cabrera finishes 2nd in HR, then Trout wins this award. Sure, Trout should have won it, but this was a very predictable outcome. Though the dude who had Trout 3rd is kind of insane.

Eh, Bob Fosse (Cabaret) beat out Francis Ford Coppola (The Godfather) for a Best Director Oscar. Now that's unconscionable.

Coppola didn't even try and get Brando in a hot, tight black outfit. And I'll take a dancing Minelli over a dancing Shire any day.

Uh, you guys aren't actually surprised are you? The triple crown was the key. As I said the other day, if Trout wins the batting title or Cabrera finishes 2nd in HR, then Trout wins this award. Sure, Trout should have won it, but this was a very predictable outcome. Though the dude who had Trout 3rd is kind of insane.

This is right, in a sense. I did 100% expect Cabrera to win, for precisely this reason. My new anger that is manifesting today is based on all the 'explanations' which refuse to admit this very simple fact.

I haven't read one that says "I voted because he won the Triple Crown." Maybe those are out there and I just haven't seen them yet. But all the ones I've looked at pretend to make 'serious' arguments. Which is really aggravating when it's quite obvious that if Trout had three more hits (enough to win the 'batting title') in May, most of them would have voted for them.

Did it not matter that the Angels only played Trout for five months? If he starts the season in Anaheim, the Angles make the playoffs and Trout is MVP. There's still far too much underdog griping in sabermetrics. Politicians and sportswriters will never change.

My new anger that is manifesting today is based on all the 'explanations' which refuse to admit this very simple fact.

That's a fair call. The funny thing is that the more a voter tries to explain their position, the less persuasive the argument. I'd take, "yep, I voted for Miggy because of the triple crown" as a somewhat plausible explanation. Anything more then that just subverts their own position to legitimise their stance.

So how historically bad is this? Looking for 10+ WAR seasons where the MVP winner was at least 3 WAR below the league leader (using BBRef WAR):

2012 AL Trout 10.7, Cabrera 6.9

1968 AL Yaz 10.0, McLain 6.8

1964 NL Mays 10.7, Boyer 5.8

1961 AL Mantle 10.2, Maris 7.0

1934 AL Gehrig 10.1, Cochrane 3.7

So, pretty much historically bad. The writers turned back the clock 50 years. On the plus side for Trout, would you rather be in the group of Yaz, Mays, Mantle and Gehric or McLain, Boyer, Maris, and Cochrane?

Are you restricting just to position players? Because in 1991 Glavine had a 9.0 WAR vs. 5.8 for Pendleton (Bonds was the highest position player at 7.6). It's a bit crazy that I always viewed Pendleton over Bonds as a historically poor choice, but that was only half as bad via WAR as the decision for Cabrera over Trout.