Saturday, May 18, 2013
Phil Wood: It’s time for baseball to use technology to make sure umps get it right
(washingtonexaminer.com)
Phil Wood’s still honking…who knew?
Read More...This brings us back to balls and strikes, and the case of minor league ump—and big league fill-in—John Tumpane.
Tumpane was behind the plate May 12 when the Nationals played the Cubs.
Tumpane is a Triple-A guy who’s called up when a regular ump has a day off. He started getting major league assignments in 2010 when he was only 27 and apparently believes that close enough is good enough.
When a pitch is so far off the plate that the catcher makes no ...
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1 2 >How did Bob Kennedy get over 5,000 PA in the major leagues when he obviously wasn't any good? (In fact, he's seventh all-time on this list of shame.)
That's catcher Terry Kennedy's father. He managed the Cubs from 1963-65 (he won the College of Coaches steel cage match) and the Athletics in 1968, and later was the Cubs GM.
and yes, he has the worst start to a career by a non-SS or C that just wouldn't be stopped (except by WW II) that I've seen.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Kennedy
"In 1940, he became the first teenaged major leaguer since 1900 to play 150 games in a season.
In the 1948 midseason Kennedy was sent to Cleveland in the same trade that brought Pat Seerey to Chicago. Kennedy hit .301 the rest of the year and became a member of the last World Championship Indians team."
Ott 25
TonyC 20
Harper 15
Cobb 12
Cedeno 10 ...
Griffey 6
Harper had 97 more PA than Ott, 153 more than Tony C, 203 more than Cobb, 220 more than Cedeno and 91 more than Griffey. Adjusted for PA, Harper, Cobb and Cedeno are all about the same and they're well behind Ott and TonyC.
Harper had 18 steals, Cobb 23, Cedeno 17 and Griffey 16. He had the most Ks by a lot but also the most BBs (Ott and Griffey reasonably close). There's a 2 win difference on Rfield between Cedeno and Harper and 1 win between Griffey and Harper.
Given I think Cedeno's the most talented player I've ever seen and Griffey ain't too shabby and they represent the "downside" of Harper at 19 ... well, that's pretty promising. The closest I can come to a negative is that it took a huge Sept to make Harper's offense look elite for 19. But Sept still counts for 19 year olds.
I plan on going after Harper this Sunday in my draft. I project him to go .300-30-100-100-25 in 2013, with 50 hr a few years from now. I would not be shocked though if he hits his prime as early as this season. Subjectively, I see his comps as Griffey and Mantle.
All of these guys won a batting or HR title at an early age. Cobb and Kaline at age 20, Ott at 23, Griffey at 24, and Magee at 25.
And, to me, that's a huge positive actually. If you look at his July/August numbers, he was terrible. Basically it was that adapt-react thing with pitchers' patterns that killed him. He was so conscious of trying to get that outside pitch (since that's basically all he saw through June) that he couldn't touch anything on the inside. He kept getting jammed with fastballs in on the plate. It took him a little while to work through it, but basically September was the result of him figuring out how to use both sides of the plate, what to expect, and how to adapt. It's like he went through a micro sophomore slump right in the middle of the season.
I could see /.330/.475. I could see /.430/.550. That's what's so fun about this season.
The other thing that's nice about him is that he's clearly a SMART baseball player. He knows the game and knows how to take advantage of all the small things. Think of those popup doubles on loafing outfielders. (or his attempt last week at a 7-3 putout on a runner who rounded 1st too sharply) He's certainly too aggressive at times now... but, in general, once he reins that in, he'll retain those smarts. And that'll give him a little extra edge in value.
I think this is an important point: Nineteen-year-olds rarely get the chance to start for an entire season, for what ought to be obvious reasons. Harper played more than Ott or Cobb or Sherry Magee did at age 19, but it's hard to argue that he played better than they did. (Of course, being no better than Ott and Cobb is hardly a negative.)
A big chunk of the credit for the value of his season goes to Davey Johnson, who has now managed (according to WAR) the two most vaulable 19-year-olds in history.
Does Johnson lose points for shredding Gooden's shoulder? I think it's a fair question.
1. Gooden went 17-9 in 1984 as a rookie with a 2.60 ERA (137 ERA+) and 276 K in 218 innings. He finished second in the Cy Young voting that year. Who finished first?
2. Gooden went 24-4 in 1985 with a 1.53 ERA (229 ERA+) and 268 K in 276 innings. He finished first in the Cy Young but only 4th in the MVP race. Which players beat him out for the MVP?
Also, a general question: Gooden struck out 11.4 batters per nine innings as a rookie, but then dropped to 8.7 K/9 the next year and then 7.2 K/9 the next year, averaging about 7.5-8 K/9 after his rookie year and before getting hurt. Is there precedent for a pitcher losing over 2.5 K/9 immediately following his rookie year, and never again getting back to the level he was at as a rookie?
As for MVP, Ryno won that year, with Keith Hernandez and Tony Gwynn coming behind him.
Obviously the writers were impressed with the Cubs finally having a good season. Their manager won MoY too, if I recall correctly.
EDIT: Oh, you were asking about MVP for 1985. Well, the others below beat me to it: Willie McGee.
1. Rick Sutcliffe, who was like 15-1 after coming to the Cubs from the Indians in a trade.
2. Willie McGee, who did NOT win the 1982 World Series MVP, though many people think he did. Who did? McGee has a somewhat strange note to accompany one of his better seasons. What is it?
I hope you're right--I grabbed him in the 4th round of a snake draft, figuring his floor is .280 with 20 HRs and 30 steals, and at worst will be a 2014 keeper.
Won the NL batting title while finishing the season in the AL? It's something like that.
It is a fair question but one I would answer "no" to. While Gooden's career was a bit of a disappointment given the way it started he won nearly 200 games and pitched 2800 innings. It's not like Gooden went Mark Prior on us and won 42 games and flamed out before he really got rolling. Given the uncertain nature of pitchers I think you get while the gettin' is good with them and I think Johnson did pretty well to get what he could out of Gooden and that era of Met baseball.
Winning the NL batting title while finishing out the season for Oakland? Either 1990 or '92, can't remember which.
EDIT: OK, I am way too slow this morning.
There was a wonderful example of this dynamic early in the season when the Nationals swept the Braves in Atlanta. Livan Hernandez struck out Harper earlier in the game with a couple of his ridiculous slow curves. Harper was so bad the PBP guy cracked that he "looked like Ichiro without the contact." Harper wasn't much better than a random high schooler in that at-bat.
Next AB, Hernandez throws the slow curve, Harper stays back for an eternity, puts a great swing on the ball and hits it about 700 feet for a home run. It was an impressive sequence.
Dave Parker and Pedro Guerrero, respectively. Really, guys, this isn't that hard to find any more thanks to our friends at B-R.
-- MWE
Yes, I've heard of B-R, thanks Mike :-) I was posting it for the fun of seeing if anyone could get it off the top of their head.
To answer your general question, I think you'll find any number of pitchers whose K rate dropped following an injury. But Gooden was pretty healthy in this time frame.
The first (healthy) guy that came to mind for me was Al Downing, but the transition was far slower than I'd recalled and nowhere near as dramatic as Gooden's.
I thought that was pretty obvious. A trivia question kind of loses its appeal if we all just sprint off to BBRef.
I guess two homers in one game could leave a big impression during the Whitey era, but he really didn't have much of a series otherwise.
He made a couple of spectacular catches, too, including one over the CF wall to rob a home run.
I think Darrell Porter was the World Series MVP that year.
He also stole a Gorman Thomas homer with a leaping catch at the wall in the 9th inning of that game, but you're right, he didn't do much outside of that game.
Year Rnd DT OvPck Tm Pos WAR G AB1982 1 1 Cubs Shawon Dunston (minors) SS 9.1 1814 5927
1982 1 2 Blue Jays Augie Schmidt (minors) SS
1982 1 3 Padres Jimmy Jones (minors) RHP -2.6 159 193
1982 1 4 Twins Bryan Oelkers (minors) LHP -1.0 45 0
1982 1 5 Mets Dwight Gooden (minors) RHP 50.1 434 741
1982 1 6 Mariners Spike Owen (minors) SS 10.3 1544 4930
1982 1 7 Pirates Sam Khalifa (minors) SS 0.6 164 488
1982 1 8 Angels Bob Kipper (minors) LHP -1.7 274 95
1982 1 9 Braves Duane Ward (minors) RHP 9.5 462 1
1982 1 10 Royals John Morris (minors) OF -0.9 402 614
1982 1 11 Giants Steve Stanicek (minors) 1B -0.1 13 16
1982 1 12 Indians Mark Snyder (minors) RHP
1982 1 13 Phillies John Russell (minors) C -3.7 448 1087
1982 1 14 White Sox Ron Karkovice (minors) C 13.3 939 2597
1982 1 15 Astros Steve Swain (minors) OF
1982 1 16 Red Sox via Rangers *Sam Horn (minors) 1B 1.9 389 1040
1982 1 17 Cubs via Expos *Tony Woods (minors) SS
1982 1 18 Red Sox Bob Parkins (minors) RHP
1982 1 19 Dodgers Franklin Stubbs (minors) 1B 1.7 945 2591
1982 1 20 Tigers Rich Monteleone (minors) RHP 2.2 210 3
1982 1 21 Cardinals Todd Worrell (minors) RHP 10.1 617 27
1982 1 22 Reds via Yankees *Scott Jones (minors) LHP
1982 1 23 Reds Billy Hawley (minors) RHP
1982 1 24 Orioles Joe Kucharski (minors) RHP
1982 1 25 Brewers Dale Sveum (minors) SS -3.5 862 2526
1982 1 26 Red Sox via Athletics *Jeff Ledbetter (minors) 1B
1982 1s 27 Cubs *Stan Boderick (minors) OF
1982 1s 28 Reds *Robert Jones (minors) 1B
Wow, shitty draft. How many #2 picks don't even get a PA or IP?
Year OvPck Tm Pos WAR G AB HR W SV Type1982 29 Red Sox *Kevin Romine (minors) OF -1.6 331 630 5 4Yr
1982 30 Blue Jays David Wells (minors) LHP 49.2 660 178 0 239 13 HS
1982 31 Padres Joseph Plesac (minors) RHP 4Yr
1982 32 Twins Allan Anderson (minors) LHP 7.6 150 1 0 49 0 HS
1982 33 Mets Floyd Youmans (minors) RHP 6.2 94 173 2 30 0 HS
1982 34 Mariners Michael Wishnevski (minors) OF 4Yr
1982 35 Pirates Jim Opie (minors) 3B 4Yr
1982 36 Yankees via Pirates *Tim Birtsas (minors) LHP 0.5 138 18 1 14 1 4Yr
1982 37 Braves Joe Johnson (minors) RHP 0.9 62 49 0 20 0 4Yr
1982 38 Royals Joe Szekely (minors) C 4Yr
1982 39 Giants Barry Bonds (minors) OF 158.1 2986 9847 762 HS
1982 40 Indians Jim Wilson (minors) 1B -0.2 9 22 0 4Yr
1982 41 Phillies Lance McCullers (minors) RHP 4.7 312 48 0 28 39 HS
1982 42 White Sox Rolando Pino (minors) 3B HS
1982 43 Astros Louie Meadows (minors) 1B -0.8 102 127 5 4Yr
1982 44 Rangers Mike Rubel (minors) 1B 4Yr
1982 45 Expos John Dopson (minors) RHP 4.3 144 55 0 30 1 HS
1982 46 Red Sox Steve Jongewaard (minors) SS HS
1982 47 Dodgers Richard Flores (minors) SS HS
1982 48 Tigers Scott Kamieniecki (minors) RHP 7.9 250 2 0 53 5 HS
1982 49 Cardinals Timothy Wallace (minors) C 4Yr
1982 50 Yankees Bo Jackson (minors) SS 7.2 694 2393 141 HS
1982 51 Reds Barry Larkin (minors) SS 67.1 2180 7937 198 HS
1982 52 Orioles Dave Otto (minors) LHP 0.3 109 20 0 10 0 HS
1982 53 Brewers Bryan Duquette (minors) LHP 4Yr
1982 54 Athletics Steve Ontiveros (minors) RHP 7.7 211 12 0 34 19 4Yr
3rd round had 3 players better than every non Gooden first rounder.
4th round had Randy Johnson and Will Clark (though neither signed)
5th round had 2 more, though B J Surhoff Surhoff didn't sign
Later rounds had Alvin Davis, Terry Pendleton, Mark Maclemore, Tom Browning, Jose Canseco, Bret Saberhagen (hm, both 1985 CYA winners, drafted 18 rounds apart), plus Raffy Palmeiro and Walt Weiss who went to college instead.
All together, there were 14 played drafted and signed in 1982 who had a career WAR of 14 or higher, and only one of them from the first round.
From 1980 to 1989 picks with more than 2 WAR...
John Cerutti 5.6
Ed Sprague 3.1
Then in the 90's you get over 2 WAR...
Steve Karsay 10.3
Shawn Green 31
Shannon Stewart 22.8
Chris Carpenter 31.9
Roy Halladay 62.3
Billy Koch 4.9
Vernon Wells 25.7 (he was good once)
Felipe Lopez 6.0
Alex Rios 23.3
Quite the shift. From 2 decent players to 6 with 20+ WAR including a likely HOF'er plus 2 more decent guys. Yet somehow the 80's/early 90's were championship calibre while the late 90's and 00's were mediocre land. You can draft well but you gotta keep the right ones and add as needed.
Very strong. He was drafted #6 overall by the Pirates in 1985. The draft above is his HS draft (1982).
The top of the 1985 draft is much stronger: Surhoff, W. Clark, B. Witt, Larkin, [Kurt Brown], Bonds.
I appreciate that Ray. Trivia is a little too easy with BBref, but still fun. I didn't remember Parker, but knew McGee and guessed Guerrero.
It stuck in my mind that Guerrero led the league in OBP and SLG in 1985. Did that in a tough park, too. I forgot just how awesome he was at hitting, which needs context to really be apparent. By raw numbers he's not that different from the best year of say, Bobby Higginson. But that 1985 year was worth a 182 OPS+. That's better than Miguel Cabrera last season (though only slightly ahead of Miggy's 2010-2011.)
And Guerrero lost the MVP vote to a speedy, gold glove winning center fielder. Where was the outrage?
Agreed. His strong September might have been helped a little by the expanded rosters, but more importantly it indicates his ability to adjust, which is what is one of the more important skills.
And I believe that Pedro Guerrero actually had the best batting average in baseball for the year, but didn't win a batting title.
Not sure if you watched the series, but it was more than his homers, his probably should have won the series MVP ala Brooks Robinson, strictly off of his defense. That is probably an exaggeration, but his defense was a major contributor for the series.
Eddie Murray.
McGwire did this with the home runs.
No outrage. He had only 87 RBI. He was lucky to finish as high as he did.
Thank you(didn't want to look it up) I remembered it was a Dodger player, just had the wrong year(1990 was the year that happened)
Wow two 19 year olds? That's like one of those correlation thingys, huh?
Just noticed that McGee received zero MVP votes for all seasons outside of '85. That has to be pretty rare.
Ken Caminiti too
edit: and of course Willie Hernandez
Not really. It's hard to argue Harper hit better than those guys due to extra playing time. But add good CF defense and baserunning and you can make an argument he was better than Ott. It's a little odd that b-r doesn't like the defense of Cedeno, Griffey and Cobb very much at 19 but tends to like them later so, given the variability of defense from year to year, I am a bit wary of declaring him more talented than those guys but am willing to grant that he played better at 19.
On his Sept ... yes, of course it could be his adjustment. Or it could be a big fluke. 330/400/643 almost certainly has a big chunk of fluke in it. Of course the 619 OPS in July is equally a fluke.
Anyway, keep an eye on the K-rate. It's hard (but not impossible) to hit 300 with that rate. At this K-rate I'll guesstimate 270/350/500 but of course a 19-year-old could see a big improvement in K-rate.
As to the draft, I'm kinda stunned that Spike Owen has more career WAR than Dunston. I also see there's a second Shawon now in the Cubs system -- his son I assume. I'd say I'm old but I'm getting used to this sort of thing.
Obviously the writers were impressed with the Cubs finally having a good season.
Yep--and the Cubs also had the 4th and 5th place finishers in the MVP race (Sutcliffe and Matthews).
Same with Jake Peavy and the Cy Young IIRC
McGwire did this with the home runs.
Sabathia did it with IP, complete games and shutouts in 2008.
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