There's a fixed number of plays in a game (probably fewer in a game with more running plays). If you're comparing one guy who throws 45 times to another guy who throws 30 and runs 15, then they're both involved in the same number of plays with injury-potential.

Right but those 15 running plays have a much higher change of the QB being tackled/hit than 15 passing plays.

And I'm not sure if I am right, but I would guess that a lot of the QB running plays are being run in place of RB running plays, not instead of passing plays. I.E. it's not 45 compared to 30/15, but 45 compared to 40/15. Is this true?

tom

brett favre took the same approach the last decade of his career. the most painful moment relating to that is the infamous 4th and 26 eagles game where favre slid for a first down only to come up a half yard short on 3rd down leaving the packers with a 4th down where coach mike sherman made the choice to punt instead of running the ball behind his world class offensive line with a running back that had gained 1883 yards for the regular season and 156 in the game against an exhausted eagles defensive line and oh by the way said running back had converted umpteen 3rd and 4th and short yardage situations in a row but because his offneisve linemen tripped at the goal line at the end of the first half the coach got wobbly

not that this game irks packer fans or anything

They still could have won that game if Favre didn't arm punt the ball to Brian Dawkins. The 4th and 26 play only set up a game tying FG.

And I'm not sure if I am right, but I would guess that a lot of the QB running plays are being run in place of RB running plays, not instead of passing plays. I.E. it's not 45 compared to 30/15, but 45 compared to 40/15. Is this true?

RTG has attempted 351 passes and rushed 112 times this year (total of 463).

Peyton Manning has attempted 480 passes.

Tom Brady has attempted 460.

All pretty similar numbers. Of course, Griffin has been sacked 28 times to Brady's and Manning's 19, which is more troublesome.

Then again, Jay Cutler, more of a Brady type than a Griffin, has been sacked 31 (despite missing time), showing, as Vick does, that the true threat to a quarterback's health is not his style of play, but the competence of his offensive line.

I think running QBs will hold the ball much longer in general (on passing plays) because they are looking to either run or pass. That makes them much more likely to get sacked behind the line.

RTG has attempted 351 passes and rushed 112 times this year (total of 463).

Peyton Manning has attempted 480 passes.

Tom Brady has attempted 460.

All pretty similar numbers.

Thanks. Yeah, I just looked too and saw that the running QB's had less pass attempts.

da

not to rehash the game but sherman not going for it on 4th and a half yard at the eagles 40 is the definitive example of why risk aversion is a terrible guiding principle

again:

--tremendous offensive line
--great (in his day) running back
--running back that excelled at short yardage situations
--exhausted and undersized defensive line
--if you get the first down the game is over, eagles were out of timeouts
--playing on the road, you should be taking such risks

it was a great game and there were many amazing moments. but mike sherman folding his hand with a full house kings over tens was the single biggest blunder i can recall in packer coaching history

All NHL games cancelled until Dec. 30th.

Speaking of risk aversion:

Yesterday the Saints had 4th and two on the Giants 7 with two minutes left in the half, trailing 14-10. Incredibly the kicked the field goal. Less surprisingly NY ran the kick off back to the 32 and scored in the two minutes they wouldn't have had if NO had gotten a first down. Totally supported by the morons in the TV booth, it goes without saying, who never said a word when it worked out badly.

If you ever had even a single doubt that Gary Bettman is the worst commissioner in sports, just look at the last graph on this page.

If you ever had even a single doubt that Gary Bettman is the worst commissioner in sports, just look at the last graph on this page.

Awful. Terrible in almost every particular -- Southern expansion, collapse of offense, concussion problem, personal douchiness.

That said, unless there are things we aren't hearing, there's no way the sides are far enough apart to kill the season. There'll be 48-50 games, starting in January.

What really struck me watching the Skins/Ravens game was actually how frequently Griffin gets hit hard when he DOESN'T run. Seems like it's due to this 'pistol'/zone read system they put together for him, which most of the time means he doesn't have his head up reading the rush for ~1-2 seconds after the snap. Which is just deadly.

I mean, how many times did it go 1) 'pistol' snap, 2) fake to the back, 3) quick pass, 4) BLAM! Griffin gets planted, 5) completion. Seemed like many.

JaMarcus Russell is still available.

That said, unless there are things we aren't hearing, there's no way the sides are far enough apart to kill the season. There'll be 48-50 games, starting in January.

Really? Its the owners who pretty much want to win on all terms. They're the ones issuing the lock out. They can't even put out an united front when dealing with themselves, and a lot of it has to do with the way Gary Bettman operates. Say a lot of things about Selig, but he's very good at making sure the owners are at least on the same page before something major happens.

What really struck me watching the Skins/Ravens game was actually how frequently Griffin gets hit hard when he DOESN'T run. Seems like it's due to this 'pistol'/zone read system they put together for him, which most of the time means he doesn't have his head up reading the rush for ~1-2 seconds after the snap. Which is just deadly.

I mean, how many times did it go 1) 'pistol' snap, 2) fake to the back, 3) quick pass, 4) BLAM! Griffin gets planted, 5) completion. Seemed like many.

that's actually exactly what should happen when you run that kind of zone-read/option offense against an NFL caliber defense. against poorer teams, with poorer coaching, you'll get a lot of indecision in trying to defend the option, but when you have a good defense, with good coaching, the players know that their first objective is to kill the quarterback and force the pitch, and then from there, the teammates need to clean up.

but if you watch these highlight reel runs by newton, by griffin, what you'll notice is that the defensive end freezes when the quarterback makes his fake, and that should not ever happen.

Really? Its the owners who pretty much want to win on all terms. They're the ones issuing the lock out. They can't even put out an united front when dealing with themselves, and a lot of it has to do with the way Gary Bettman operates. Say a lot of things about Selig, but he's very good at making sure the owners are at least on the same page before something major happens.

as i posted a while back, i am fairly sure that it only takes 6 (out of 30) owners to block any labor agreement, so it's very easy for the hardliners to railroad any potential deal.

and i don't know how anyone can be optimistic about there being an NHL season until players are actually on the ice and playing in an NHL uniform, on NHL ice, in front of an NHL crowd.

as i posted a while back, i am fairly sure that it only takes 6 (out of 30) owners to block any labor agreement, so it's very easy for the hardliners to railroad any potential deal.

Even easier since it's come out that the 6 guys on the negotiating committee are the only owners who have any idea what's actually going on. Bettman's strategy for owner control is just keeping a tight rein on those guys and making sure that everyone else shuts up (see that massive fine he gave the Red Wings when some VP shot his mouth off).

I continue to be confounded that this is still going on given how close the numbers are, but I think the difference between the two sides is still a little more than it would have cost the NFL to avoid the replacement refs debacle, and definitely a larger percentage of league revenue, so it might not be the dumbest sports labor dispute of 2012.

Patriots are taking it to the Texans.

There may have been some debate a few weeks ago but the Patriots are clearly the best team right now.

RGIII with the mild foot sprain.

There may have been some debate a few weeks ago but the Patriots are clearly the best team right now.

They didn't play anyone good in their 6 game win streak, but damn this is a beat down. They play SF next week, that could be ugly too.

A Houston loss tonight means the Colts control their own destiny for the division title. Wow.

They play SF next week, that could be ugly too.

I think the Niners have a less than 15% chance to win the game. You're not going to beat the Pats at home with an inexperienced QB. That said, I don't think the Niners defense can be embarrassed to the point that it will get ugly. I just think there's too much talent.

I think the Niners have a less than 15% chance to win the game. You're not going to beat the Pats at home with an inexperienced QB. That said, I don't think the Niners defense can be embarrassed to the point that it will get ugly. I just think there's too much talent.

I don't know about 15% but I agree. And now Kaepernick has four starts on tape, the league is going to start to figure things out. They face New England, Seattle and Arizona the rest of the way, three well coached defenses (yesterday not withstanding for Arizona, other than that game they have been really good.)

A Houston loss tonight means the Colts control their own destiny for the division title. Wow.

They play each other two times in the last three weeks?! That is bizarre scheduling.

[570] That's a foot sprain only if the team doctors are graduates of the Hollywood Upstairs School of Medicine. (

Or there's a joke I'm missing. The LCL is a knee ligament.

it wouldn't take much for Indy and Houston to play in the postseason as well in a 4 v 5 game.

The only way the Colts are going to beat the Texans is if the game means nothing to Houston.

Are people still seriously arguing that the Patriots are not the best team in the NFL? People think San Fran or Houston is better?

10-3, +198 point differential, next highest at +132, just blew out the 11-1 Texans...

Are people still seriously arguing that the Patriots are not the best team in the NFL?

Who's arguing that now? A month ago it was a fair position to take. Today, not so much.

I think the Niners have a less than 15% chance to win the game. You're not going to beat the Pats at home with an inexperienced QB. That said, I don't think the Niners defense can be embarrassed to the point that it will get ugly. I just think there's too much talent.

That seems... low. I mean, the Cardinals beat them with Kevin Kolb. They are probably less than 6 point favorites.

That being said... there I would not be surprised at all Belichick and Co. take Harbaugh and Roman to the game planning & scheme woodshed.
What is true that the Niners don't have a prayer if they don't get a tremendous pass rush on Brady. They have to do so without blitzing, and they have to cover the backs/TE with linebackers AND they have to stop the run in their nickle. Oh, and tackle Welker. So, hey no problem. I think that if they are playing well, the Niners defense can hold New England to <28. The Cardinals, Seahawks, Dolphins and Jets (well, in regulation) all did this, and I think the Niners defense is better and possibly more suited to play the Patriots.

So, can the Niners offense score enough to keep up? I this is where the coaching comes in. If they fall behind by 2 TDs and have to throw on every down, they are toast

Let's be clear - I am not saying that the Niners are better.

I think they have more than a 15% chance, though. Maybe 35-40%.

Prior to this week, the top 5 teams by DVOA were NE, DEN, SF, (gap) SEA (gap) GB. After this week, it's likely NE, SEA (gap) DEN, SF, GB.

It's suprising NE was able to move he ball as well as it did with these "skill" psi stood players getting so many snaps:
TE Michael Hoomanawanui – 43 of 73
WR Donte’ Stallworth – 20 of 73
WR Matthew Slater – 11 of 73
TE Daniel Fells – 9 of 73
TE Visanthe Shiancoe – 8 of 73

The good Sabastian Vollmer will need to return for the 9'ers game, getting the run game back on track will be critical if the above floatsum is going to continue to get meaningful playing time.

Slightly different (although Niners related topic) - thought I would run this past the peanut gallery/intelligensia here:

Scuttlebutt is that the Niners will cut or trade Alex Smith after the season. This seems pretty obvious, although a bad few weeks or from or injurty to, Kaepernick could change this pretty fast.

Smith is signed for 2013 (only), for $8M pretty much all guaranteed. His salary ($7M) counts against the cap starting April 1st, 2013. Prior to that the Niners (and their cap) have to eat a $1M roster bonus if he is not cut before April 12th.


It's a little hard to find salary data for all NFL QBs in one neat package... but his salary for 2013 seems "reasonable" for a starter and insane for a backup.

Given this data - does Smith have *any* trade value at all? Sure he's reasonably solid and would be an upgrade for a dozen teams and a MAJOR upgrade for 6 or so... but why would you pay for the exclusive rights to pay Alex Smith $7M guaranteed?

I guess *maybe* if someone thought he was a great fit and gauged there was interest from multiple teams, they would cough up like a 5th rounder for him.

Apparently before Mondays' game the Niners-Patriots opened at about -3 (NE, natch) but has since jumped to -5/-6 which seems about right.

Although I seemed to have missed the RG3 conversation, three points I’d make:

1. It seems pretty obvious to me that RG3’s style of play invites more contact and more violent contact than most QBs. The option requires him to abandon the safety of the pocket and hold onto the ball longer, he executes fakes that are designed to draw defenders to him, and he doesn’t shy from contact when he’s a runner.

2. I think Griffin can limit a lot of this contact without losing too much effectiveness. When I think of the three biggest hits that RG3 has taken this year, it’s been the two that knocked him out of the game, and a play against the Giants at the end of the fourth quarter where he wanted to stay in bounds. In all three, he ran into contact for one reason or another, and that is just not something that he can sustain over the long term with his build.

3. Most importantly, Griffin has the arm strength, accuracy, and ability to read defenses to be a special player from the pocket, which makes any Vick comparison (or, god forbid, any Tebow comparison) look pretty silly. He’s only played 13 games at the NFL and his game will mature. As he matures, I think he’ll rely more on the threat of his legs and you’ll see him slide and go out of bounds to avoid contact. There’s no reason to think he won’t be able to be very successful over the long run if he’s able to do that.

After this week, it's likely NE, SEA (gap) DEN, SF, GB.

Woot, I am a human DVOA machine!

These game out today:
NE +42%
SEA +39%
DEN +36%
SF +35%
GB +22% (chicago and NYG are close behind)

OK, I missed the gap between SF and Green Bay. Probably I overestimated their performace against Detroit.

another thing to consider... that loss to the Patriots dropped the Texans chances for a 1st round bye all the way to 90.7% [coolstandings alert!] It was not a game they needed to win.

Robert Griffin III (knee) says he did "enough" in Wednesday's practice, and that he can plant and throw without issue.
He was officially limited. "I did enough to give myself the confidence to push it tomorrow and Friday," Griffin said after practice. Griffin also said he feels "a lot better" than he did Sunday night, and confirmed he'll wear a brace if he starts against the Browns. At this point, it's hard not to see him suiting up. Griffin's status will be updated no later than Thursday afternoon.

via rotoworld

So that's 7% of games missed in RGIII's career is now down to zero.

On Thursday's episode of ESPN's First Take, Rob Parker, a former Detroit News columnist, questioned Robert Griffin III's blackness.

"Is he a brother, or is he a cornball brother?" Parker asked.

His inquiry continued.

“He’s black, he kind of does his thing, but he’s not really down with the cause; he’s not one of us,” Parker said. “He’s kind of black, but he’s not really the kind of guy you want to hang out with 'cause he’s off to something else.”

Parker apparently questioned Griffin's race because the Washington Redskins' star is engaged to a white woman and is rumored to be a Republican.

The nature of the conversation made ESPN's Stephen A. Smith uneasy.

"I'm uncomfortable with where we just went," he said.

"RGIII, the ethnicity or the color of his fiancee is none of our business, it's irrelevant, he can live his life in whatever way he chooses. The braids that he has in his hair, that's his business, that's his life, he can live his life."

http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-espns-rob-parker-rgiii-20121213,0,3579202.story?track=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=53285

Parker is obviously a joke, but this is just the kind of thing ESPN wants because people will talk about their show for days. The best thing to do is ignore it.

Pathetic.

Agreeing with Stephen A. Smith makes me uneasy.

Agreeing with Stephen A. Smith makes me uneasy.

quite frankly, i'm outraged at the implication.

quite frankly, i'm outraged at the implication.

I see what you did there.

So that's 7% of games missed in RGIII's career is now down to zero.

The Redskins have announced that Kirk Cousins is starting.

and the refs completly missed hester calling timeout giving greenbay a first down....

wow why does green bay keep that guy as the kicker? he missed it by about 25 feet (from the side of the upright)

Bears still suck.

It's 3rd and 1 and Micheal Turner is actually running the ball well. WTF is up with an empty backfield end-around?