Wednesday, May 01, 2013
OT: NBA Monthly Thread - May 2013
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posted 3 weeks ago by Athletic Supporter gangnam style to basketball, nba, off-topic
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1107 comment(s)
I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about straight NBA players, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: gay NBA players and craft beer.
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‹ First < 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 >18-year-old DC/DM (primarily defensive mid), Dutch, Chelsea youth product. He's apparently pretty good - he's been really good in the first ten minutes of this game, if that's any indication (it isn't, really). Looks a lot like Ruud Gullit in his hairstyle (not in his style of play).
Also, I like watching Javi Martinez, even when he's not on the ball. He lumbers around like some great dumb beast, and then suddenly he's exactly where he needs to be, breaking up an attack before it starts and playing a smart ball to get possession going.
SO I would assume you would need to create a Zero-inflated Poisson to account for the preponderance of NIL scores, correct? If so, how the hell do you do that in Excel? I could never figure it out although gave up fairly quickly.
@ MCoA -
Good stuff lad. I have yet to work on Monte Carlo simulations for my ratings but it's something I've wanted to try.
Be interesting to see what changes Klopp makes at half time.
-He says he uses log5 for W/L and just assigns draws randomly to make up the proper percentages.
-He says he assigns goals randomly, 1-5 for the winner, fewer for the loser. (Assume something similar with draws).
But the results certainly look plausible. Nonetheless, not a fan of his method, if it's as I'm reading it.
I agree with zack that I don't understand how City rate above United if he's just using goal difference. Everything else fits a GD model as opposed to an xG model (system likes Chelsea over Tottenham, doesn't rate Everton, doesn't hate Reading), except for the City / United ratings.
Ake update: He's been very, very solid. Most of his interceptions have been successful (he's been really good about getting the ball and completely avoiding the player, which is impressive. It's not just blundering through the man, it's targeted at the ball), he's composed on the ball and distributes quickly (and very hard; his passes have a lot of bite on them, which it sometimes seems the other players aren't quite ready for, but, imho a bit more bite/speed would be good for Chelsea's play), and, while he's made a few positional things, he seems to have more than enough speed to both make up for them and close down players further up the pitch. If this is how he plays normally (in a higher-level game), then I'm a fan.
Has to be Torres right? HE SCORES WHEN HE WANTS IN THE FA CUP!
Don't you ever change Rafa!
WOW!! Didn't know that bath salts were a thing in London as well. I really should get on playing my violin for Sad Rafa.
It's obvious that a "metronome" guy in the back of midfield is really Chelsea's greatest weakness, possibly even more than having an impotent striker. For me, getting stiff armed by those damn, dreaded Spurs for Modric is easily the biggest missed opportunity for the last two seasons. I think that you would see a completely different team with someone who could link the defense and attacking band. Ramires, Lampard and Mikel just can't play that role and Luiz is just way to inconsistent to trust. Ake played the role well today, though he's still to green to trust against bid competition. I actually commend Rafa for giving that a go, as Ake's been thought of as mostly a defender.
That is wonderful.
Came here to say the same thing. Even though it won't change a thing, I think the fans deserved the dressing down.
His second goal was a fantastic chip from about 40 yards out. He also set up another goal with a perfect through ball (right after a handball that wasn't called). Highlights are here, though you can skip to about 4:05 if you don't want to see Ajax dominating for 70 minutes and creating a ton of chances without really coming close to scoring.
I'm going to guess this means "It hit his hand!" in Dutch.
A philosopher? No. A perpetual grad student? No. A jazz pianist? No. A morally conflicted underworld figure? Nope, not that either.
They've been booing him, mocking him and singing songs extolling the virtues of his predecessor and he was already a virtual certainty to be unemployed no later than May 15th. What else are they going to do? At this point Rafa really loses nothing by making the complete heel turn (and really, he did a hell of a job with it). At this point the worst possible result is that they miss the Champions League, that's no skin off Rafa's nose he ain't managing them in August and I think he's got enough of a track record that he'll land a pretty good job if he wants it no matter what the rest of the year holds.
You don't think they can dig a little deeper? If West Brom score first Cameron will have to call in the troops.
Where can Rafa go next?
I can't see him getting a job at a mega bastard club now, but I think he can get something at a level just below that or a prime international job. He's got an impressive CV. I can also see him beginning the Svennis stage of his career where he wanders from one lucrative short time gig to another until he's eventually the house pet of some sheik or prince in Saudi Arabia or Qatar.
Disagree. The underlying message of the Benitez backlash was to reject the actions of the board for firing RDM. The fans realized it was ludicrous to let the guy go after winning the UCL and then sitting top 3 in the EPL simply because of a few bad games. It didn't matter who was brought in, the fans were never going to accept the absurdity of Chelsea's management.
Rafa internalized this as something about him. It wasn't. However, he could have turned the fans by having his team clearly outperform RDM's. It didn't, so the feeling never went away.
He should have known what he was getting into and not taking it some damn personally. If he didn't, he's pretty clueless.
I was thinking gigolo. Starving artist was not in my top ten.
He started against Honduras, no?
He started against Honduras, no?
Maybe he did. My comment has been exposed as being uninformed as to the last few games. So hopefully I'm wrong and it is a thing of the past.
I think he is firmly on the Svennis track now. Managers tend to go downhill (and downmarket) fast.
The response of Chelsea fans got personal pretty quick, in my observation. Benitez's history of mocking Chelsea fans mattered, and the mockery of Benitez, the fat Spanish waiter, has had a significantly Benitez-specific quality from the beginning. It wasn't just about the board or RDM, it was about Rafa.
At the same time, Benitez didn't just say that fans were getting personal. He blamed the fans for Chelsea losing, for the atmosphere at the Bridge not being conducive to winning. To quote:That is some dumb-assed blame shifting, and I don't blame Chelsea fans at all for calling it such.
To SG's concern that the Poisson underpredicts nil scores, that doesn't look like a huge divergence. From 2001-2012, I count 28.7% of team-games without a goal, compared to a Poisson prediction of 26.9%. It appears to have larger divergences at higher numbers, which might be more of a concern. I'll have to take a look.
The results came out pretty similarly, but I'm happier with the underlying model. It's not nearly as fudgy anymore.
This entry is about how to press effectively when playing 4-4-2 against 5-3-2/3-5-2.
Is that straight from Pochettino's Man City pregame speech?
Yeah you are probably right, but he had to KNOW this was going to happen. Chelsea fans didn't like him to begin with and were irate at the firing of RDM. How did he think they'd react?
His rant about interim was pretty ridiculous as well. I am presuming they titled him interim because the contract he signed was for an extremely short duration. Hence the term interim. Had they decided to keep him long term a new, longer duration contract would have been signed and the interim label removed.
Page 29 of 30 pages
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