So would someone like to take over posting the thread each month? I'm attempting to enter something of a semi-retirement from BBTF, so if someone wants to take this over, I'd be most appreciative.

So would someone like to take over posting the thread each month? I'm attempting to enter something of a semi-retirement from BBTF, so if someone wants to take this over, I'd be most appreciative.

What? I have not yet begun to make proper West Ham jokes. You aren't leaving until you've been properly zinged.

I nominate one of the Matt's to take over posting the thread as I will make a Rafa Benitez out of it.

What? I have not yet begun to make proper West Ham jokes.

Are we still planning to get together with Travelin' Matt on Sunday for the NLD? If so, I can explain more in full then.

As for West Ham jokes, I doubt you can do better than the one they put over on me by playing a game every week.

Are we still planning to get together with Travelin' Matt on Sunday for the NLD? If so, I can explain more in full then.

Mattbert and I were just corresponding about that! Do any other of you knuckleheads want to meet up? I don't want to lay claim to RB's swingin' bachelor pad if it's going to be more than just 3 people. (I have a colleague in from out of town--a big Hammer fan, actually--who might want to take in the game with us, too.) Seems like Matt Clement should come out for old time's sake.

If it's more than 3 people, the invite to RB's Swinin' Bachelor Pad is revoked, because that's about the maximum occupany. I'm in either way, just let me know if I need to prepare in some manner for guests.

Damn, I'd love to come, but I am going to be out of town for the NLD. I will likely be watching in the same mostly empty small town bar with no one else there who cares about the game in which I watched the Old Trafford game, so there's that. Hope y'all have a good time.

I have keys, so I'm happy to take over thread posting duties. Anyone got a snappy opening line for me?

If it's more than 3 people, the invite to RB's Swinin' Bachelor Pad is revoked, because that's about the maximum occupany. I'm in either way, just let me know if I need to prepare in some manner for guests.

Let's nail it down tomorrow then to give anyone else who might want to join up a chance. I'm a little nervous I may make an ass out of myself if Spurs lose, though. I'm also a little nervous I'll make an ass of myself if Spurs win.

I'm a little nervous I may make an ass out of myself if Spurs lose, though. I'm also a little nervous I'll make an ass of myself if Spurs win.

Well, I'm confident you can make an ass of yourself whatever the result!

I have keys, so I'm happy to take over thread posting duties. Anyone got a snappy opening line for me?

Since this is SPURS THINK FACTORY, I would have no problem with Spurs CFBPS for each following month in the intro. Assuming you ever get done renoobulating it.

To SG's concern that the Poisson underpredicts nil scores, that doesn't look like a huge divergence. From 2001-2012, I count 28.7% of team-games without a goal, compared to a Poisson prediction of 26.9%. It appears to have larger divergences at higher numbers, which might be more of a concern. I'll have to take a look.

The following might be of interest.

www.math.ku.dk/~rolf/teaching/thesis/DixonColes.pdf

If I were Shooty, I'd be more worried about Ackman than Tottenham.

I have keys, so I'm happy to take over thread posting duties. Anyone got a snappy opening line for me?

See post #1449

If I were Shooty, I'd be more worried about Ackman than Tottenham.

Sorry for going briefly off topic, but what happened today? I saw they suspended trading on HLF but I left the office before I saw why. Am I going to need to change my handle?

Icahn's getting two directors and approval to raise his stake to 25%.

Stock was up 7 percent.

Ah. Icahn is still trying to bully the little Jewish kids in the schoolyard, I see. I think I'll hang onto my handle a while yet.

Given stunts like this, I find it hard to take sides.

Given stunts like this, I find it hard to take sides.

Ha! Ackman is a bit of a douche, but Herbalife is evil and I hope he takes them down.

Which provides the perfect segue for this bizarre clip of Messi playing cricket.

His bowling action is worse than Lasith Malinga's.

The one where he kicks it, on the other hand? If this had been around in 2001, I'm sure Aamir Khan would have fit him into "Lagaan" somehow.

Herbalife is code for Scientology, right? Or Zumba? Or both?

Messi reminds me of Manti Te'o, but with much more talent. I worry about the kid. I can only imagine how Franco would have used him at this point. He's vulnerable.

And I hope he doesn't even see the pitch v. Real this weekend. Better four v. Milan than even showing up in a meaningless "Classico."

I have keys, so I'm happy to take over thread posting duties. Anyone got a snappy opening line for me?

I don't have keys, and I am often only dimly aware of the arrival of a new month. So, glad that's sorted.

I am looking forward to RB's announcement that he's been short-listed for the papacy.

Rafa Benítez just another face to be airbrushed out of the picture

One of the players – his identity would be a grave disappointment to Chelsea's supporters – has been behind a lot of it.

Would anybody actually be surprised if John Terry is outed to be a high-maintenance primadonna behind the scenes? Of course, it might not actually be Terry.

Gotta be Lampard, right?

I am looking forward to RB's announcement that he's been short-listed for the papacy.

I know the Catholic Church is in rough shape, but they aren't in that rough shape, I assure you.

And if I were short-listed for Pope, that would not stop me from posting here. Though my posts might have to be in Latin.

Defoe will be on the bench against Arsenal.

Checking out some of the lower league standings I see Wolves are in the relegation zone in the Championship and they're playing Watford today. Of the 3 clubs that were relegated last year, I would have taken them as the favorites to bounce back up. I was wrong.

Wolves are sort of like the Pittsburgh Pirates (with Billy Wright as Honus Wagner).

Even when things seem to be looking up for them, they'll find a way to screw it up.

Gotta be Lampard, right?

Or Cech?

Or Cech?

Now, that would shock me. Mata would be the other one that would be shocking.

So...anyone else up for the NLD in New York Sunday?

So...anyone else up for the NLD in New York Sunday?

You made the mistake of confirming that I'll be there. Attendance killer.

Now, that would shock me. Mata would be the other one that would be shocking.

I was thinking Mata too, but the way the sentence preceding it was worded, it led me to believe that it was someone with more tenure.

OK, somebody please tell me if I should be excited or worried that Martins has ditched Levante for SoundersFC. I like the idea of a true striker, but the timing strikes me as odd. How does this happen outside a window? And is he a team player?

I'd be excited about Martins. He was at Inter for a couple of the seasons that we had season tickets, and was always fun to watch. He's very much a team player, and generally has a very positive attitude; he just wasn't quite up to Champions League/Scudetto standard (whereas Crespo and Zlatan were), but did decently at Wolfsburg and Levante, and should do well at Seattle. The one concern I would have is potential injury, particularly from playing on turf.

The MLS window is open until 15 April, the fact that the Spanish window is closed isn't relevant.

FC BARCELONA THINK FACTORY

Xavi has a "slight tear" of his hamstring, and is expected to be out for two weeks, including the return leg against Milan.

OK, somebody please tell me if I should be excited or worried that Martins has ditched Levante for SoundersFC. I like the idea of a true striker, but the timing strikes me as odd. How does this happen outside a window? And is he a team player?

Transfer window applies to the league that the player is going to, and MLS still has its international transfer window open. Seattle's been hit or miss with their DPs. Rosales and Montero are/were very good, Ljungberg was good for one year, Nkufo barely played, Tiffert is MIA. I'd be cautious.

Have any of you stat guys read this paper?

The gist is that crossing is inefficient.

Transfer window applies to the league that the player is going to

Seemingly obvious in retrospect, thanks DA (and UA).

Count me among those who've been unimpressed by Tiffert to date. Rosales, when not hurt, has been aces; I too think the turf factor for international players is huge. I wonder if a few (more) injuries to high-profile DPs could start a movement back to grass, and whether MLS would (or could) consider such a thing.

The gist is that crossing is inefficient.

You needed a study to tell you that?

The primary benefit of crossing, is making the other team defend against it, opening up some space in the midle of the pitch.

You needed a study to tell you that?

I don't choose a flavor of Pop Tart without a study, good sir.

edit: Also, I should have been more clear on the paper's conclusion, it's not just that it's inefficient, but that it has NEGATIVE impact on scoring for the top teams.

I don't choose a flavor of Pop Tart without a study, good sir.

Duh, chocolate fudge.

Duh, chocolate fudge.

Well, obviously I'll need a source for this.

Count me among those who've been unimpressed by Tiffert to date. Rosales, when not hurt, has been aces; I too think the turf factor for international players is huge. I wonder if a few (more) injuries to high-profile DPs could start a movement back to grass, and whether MLS would (or could) consider such a thing.

There are only four stadiums in MLS that are turf and three are shared with football teams: Seattle, New England and Vancouver. Only Portland is turf and not shared. While it certainly doesn't help, it doesn't really seem to be a problem either, those four teams (21% of the league) have 7 DPs combined (26% of the DPs). Until every team has a SSS turf is always going to be there, and Seattle is never going to move and New England is not going to until they're finally sold to an ownership that cares.

Duh, chocolate fudge.

Well, obviously I'll need a source for this.

In Fudge we trust, all others must have data.

Shooty & Mattbert, you guys still have my e-mail, right?

Turf in MLS isn't the major problem it was for the NASL (when it was ubiquitous and awful), but I do have some concerns about a player who plays his home matches on it (as well as the games in Portland and Vancouver), particularly because a) Martins has a history of leg injuries (including a stress fracture), b) has quite a percussive style, and c) is of indeterminate age (few people believe he is really 28).

He's still fun enough to watch that I'm bummed that Seattle aren't coming to Harrison this season.

Seattle aren't coming to Harrison this season

Looking at the overhead images for that place, it sure seems like it's, ah, off the beaten track. Is that a giant warehouse? Where's the nearest pub?

Get that second team in NYC and Seattle can visit every year.

I had not realized we in the NW had the corner on turf; not sure why I assumed it was more pervasive.

Looking at the overhead images for that place, it sure seems like it's, ah, off the beaten track. Is that a giant warehouse? Where's the nearest pub?

I can see it from my office window! It's a short walk to Newark's Ironbound district that has plenty of bars and restaurants. The company that owns the land has plans to build it up. I maintain that all that riverfront property in and around Newark is just going to waste and could spark a revival of the whole area, but I'm not a billionaire real estate developer.

The area immediately surrounding the stadium are parking lots and abandoned factories/warehouses. I'm sure there were plans to redevelop the area but the economy going to hell slowed it down. As Shooty said Ironbound has bars and Portuguese restaurants but its not right there. I could see walking through an old industrial area across an old bridge would turn off some people.

I have a friend who bought/renovated a building into condos not too far from the train station/Prudential Center. I think he sold all the units but its generally a tough sell. Its ok during the day but I would not want to be walking in the area once it gets dark. Fundamentally schools and proximity to mass transit to the city are what sell Jersey real estate and Newark has some terrible schools. Commuters should love Newark but there just aren't that many people that want to live there. Getting in out and out of Newark by car can be a pain because there isn't much within the walking area for shopping (Target, Whole Foods, malls and such). There are some cultural things around but most people come in and get out as quickly as possible. Even the bars work on that schedule I went to a Nets game before they moved to Brooklyn and after the game my friends and I went to the bar right next to the Prudential Center. They were basically shooing us out at 11:30.

Also Jersey City is much closer to Manhattan and there are a bunch of efforts to build up areas around some suburban train stations.

Have any of you stat guys read this paper?

Obviously crossing isn't very efficient, but I don't think that paper supports it's conclusions at all. It is just a simple linear regression of the number of "good" and "bad" crosses a team takes on their goals scored. I'm with Tango of the opinion that linear regressions are almost never the correct tool for sports analysis, so that may have biased me against it. But this doesn't really prove anything, my first thought is that the shear quantity of crosses is just a proxy for the number of defenders behind you. It doesn't differentiate between crosses on the break and those against a packed box. There's also a big game theory component that is ignored, if you never crossed. It's been a looooooong time since I took econometrics so I could be misinterpreting, of course, but it's such a simple regression that I can't believe it's accurate. Need access to the data.

I'm not a billionaire real estate developer.

Your life must be a series of disappointments to your parents.

New thread up. The opening bit clearly smacks of effort. I'll do better next time.