BBTF.org/m/off-topic : OT: The Soccer Thread: February 2013

Wednesday, May 01, 2013

OT: NBA Monthly Thread - May 2013

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951. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on February 19, 2013 at 02:28 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

No good deed goes unpunished.

952. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 03:19 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Arsenal goes with Walcott up front with Ramsey and Podolski on the flanks. I think it's a good move as Walcott gives them their best shot against Bayern IMO. Giroud is simply too wasteful to be trusted in a game like this.

953. I am going to be Frank posted on February 19, 2013 at 03:53 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Arsenal looks shaky at the back and Kroos scores.

Walcott already looks dangerous, yet the new English(?) announcer keeps harping on the fact that Arsenal can't lump it up to him to hold. We get it already!

954. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 03:54 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Now that was a goal. Great pass by Muller to pick out Kroos and the strike left no question. Pure quality.

Arsenal is going for it and the Wilshere/Cazorla/Walcott pairing looks frisky. Could be some goals in this one.

955. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:06 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I think the tie is already over. Sheesh. Bayern are really freaking good.

956. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:07 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

And that's that. Fun while it lasted eh Arsene? Arsenal's midfield is simply overmatched here.

957. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:09 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I think the tie is already over. Sheesh. Bayern are really freaking good.

Yeah they look like top class right now. They appear much stronger than Barca, Real, United, Juven or anyone else right now.

958. I am going to be Frank posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:12 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Hindsight and all but don't see why Wegner didn't field Diaby. Obviously he's an injury risk but wow Bayern's midfield is physically imposing.

959. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Hindsight and all but don't see why Wegner didn't field Diaby. Obviously he's an injury risk but wow Bayern's midfield is physically imposing.

Diaby has been in poor form. Not spending the cash for a midfield destroyer is biting them in the, ahem, arse.

960. I am going to be Frank posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:18 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I think Arteta has been worse since he came back from injury plus Ramsey isn't anything special either.

961. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:18 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The feed today on Fox2go is terrible. Grrr.

962. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:20 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I think Arteta has been worse since he came back from injury plus Ramsey isn't anything special either.

I think you've summed up Arsenal's recent struggles pretty well there. That said, they're only 4 points behind Spurs who are supposed to be in great form so I try not to talk too much crap.

963. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:24 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Yeah they look like top class right now. They appear much stronger than Barca, Real, United, Juven or anyone else right now.

If I have to pick a team, I'll still pick Barca, no doubt. Bayern indeed look really impressive, but a good half against a mediocre Arsenal side isn't going to sway me. That was always a mismatch. Bayern play in a cupcake league. Dortmund is the only team that can play up to their level, and their track-record against them is not good. They had a cupcake group for the CL, and lost their second game 3-1 to BATE Borisov... They are hardly invincible.

964. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:31 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Any suggestions for half time changes for Arsenal? Maybe Ox in for Ramsey and move Cazorla more central? Get some more pace on the wings? It's a real handicap for Arsenal that Monreal is cup-tied. I think they're stuck with Koscielny at left back.

965. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:31 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Diaby has been in poor form. Not spending the cash for a midfield destroyer is biting them in the, ahem, arse.

Top-table obscurity reigns at The Emirates for another year!

Though I suppose if they end up having to settle for the Eurpora League, that would be a meaningful step backwards.

966. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:32 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

This whole pressing of Bayern ain't working out too well.

967. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:32 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Though I suppose if they end up having to settle for the Eurpora League, that would be a meaningful step backwards.

5th place makes you the Bayern of mid-table!

968. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:33 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

No, John Strong, this tie IS dead and buried.

969. jmurph posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:33 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Any suggestions for half time changes for Arsenal? Maybe Ox in for Ramsey and move Cazorla more central? Get some more pace on the wings? It's a real handicap for Arsenal that Monreal is cup-tied. I think they're stuck with Koscielny at left back.

I think they have to put RVP and Clichy out there, Mancunian registrations be damned.

970. jmurph posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:35 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

In the world of serious suggestions, they can absolutely have Nasri back.

971. I am going to be Frank posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:35 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

At this point Arsenal has to go for it... Giroud on for Ramsey or Podolski and Diaby on for Arteta.

972. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:38 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

In the world of serious suggestions, they can absolutely have Nasri back.

I laugh when people say selling Nasri for 3 times as much as he's worth made Arsenal a selling club. That was genius by Arsenal!

973. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:38 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

If I have to pick a team, I'll still pick Barca, no doubt. Bayern indeed look really impressive, but a good half against a mediocre Arsenal side isn't going to sway me. That was always a mismatch. Bayern play in a cupcake league. Dortmund is the only team that can play up to their level, and their track-record against them is not good. They had a cupcake group for the CL, and lost their second game 3-1 to BATE Borisov... They are hardly invincible.

Good points although I was less than impressed with Barca in the group stages as well. Plus, they are beat up a bit. Still I do agree they would have to be the favorites, by Bayern has to be second.

974. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:41 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Any suggestions for half time changes for Arsenal? Maybe Ox in for Ramsey and move Cazorla more central? Get some more pace on the wings? It's a real handicap for Arsenal that Monreal is cup-tied. I think they're stuck with Koscielny at left back.

That's worth a shot. I guess you could go with Diaby as well but that doesn't seem to offer much hope of scoring the two needed to have a realistic shot in the reverse leg. The other issue they have is that they have three on yellows and I could see Arteta or Sagna doing something ill advised out of frustration.

975. I am going to be Frank posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:49 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I also don't get the hate of the RvP selling. I get Man U is a "rival" but even with him, I didn't see Arsenal challenging for a title and Arsenal got a good amount of money for him when there was a good chance he would have left on a free a year later. Plus if RvP doesn't go to United, Man City are probably in the driver's seat to win the league and I think Arsenal fans are more annoyed with them.

Unless something drastically changes (like Arsene spending like a Madrid manager), Arsenal isn't going to challenge for a title in the next three years. It seems like the fans are using the "don't trade players within the division" axiom. Short term it hurts, but long-term, money is good if its reinvested in the club.

976. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:50 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Or I guess you could do nothing. At least Arsene's probably warm on the sidelines.

977. jmurph posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:56 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I also don't get the hate of the RvP selling. I get Man U is a "rival" but even with him, I didn't see Arsenal challenging for a title and Arsenal got a good amount of money for him when there was a good chance he would have left on a free a year later.

This argument is only valid if they finish in 4th this season without him.

EDIT: Or if they pull a Chelsea in the Champions League, of course.

978. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Holy moly was that awful goalkeeping. WTF was Neuer doing?

979. I am going to be Frank posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Wow - Neuer is so bored he decides to go for a ball he has no business going for. Wegner taking something from the SAF book of managing and giving the team the hair-dryer treatment?

980. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

This whole pressing of Bayern ain't working out too well.

It's just not how you beat Bayern. You sit back let them try and break you down. Strong defensive midfield, strong CB's, pace up front, and kill them on the break when they turn the ball over, and leave space behind them, whih they will.

Course Arsenal can't soak up pressure without leaking a half-dozen goals, so it's moot.

Edit: Well that might make things a little interesting at least.

981. I am going to be Frank posted on February 19, 2013 at 05:00 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

This argument is only valid if they finish in 4th this season without him.

Yea - Of course.

982. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 05:08 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Arjen Robben seems like a peach of a teammate.

983. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 05:15 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Giroud REALLY misses a lot of clear cut scoring opportunities.

984. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance posted on February 19, 2013 at 05:22 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Oh boy.

985. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 05:23 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Don't worry, I am sure Arsenal can score at least three at Bayern...

986. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on February 19, 2013 at 05:29 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Bayern looks good, although the Arsenal back four has done a good job of making them look unstoppable.

Also on that Giroud missed chances thing, I figured, this is something for which there's some amount of data. These are PL players with at least 10 "big chances" who have converted less that one-third of those:

2/10 Kevin Nolan
3/13 David Silva
3/13 Papiss Demba Cisse
4/17 Olivier Giroud
4/14 Nikita Jelavic
5/16 Arouna Kone

That seems like a pretty good list of out-of-form finishers.

But here's the problem. These are the next two guys on the list:

6/18 Sergio Aguero (well, ok, he hasn't been at his best...)
11/31 Robin van Persie (oh)

987. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on February 19, 2013 at 05:31 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

And the best rate of "big chance" conversion, players over 50%:

7/11 Rickie Lambert
10/16 Edin Dzeko
11/19 Michu
6/11 Shane Long
13/24 Luis Suarez
8/15 Wayne Rooney
9/17 Christian Benteke

Overall, this seems like a good listing of players who've been finishing well and players who haven't. Except for the whole RVP thing.

988. JuanGone..except1game posted on February 19, 2013 at 05:39 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Overall, this seems like a good listing of players who've been finishing well and players who haven't. Except for the whole RVP thing.

Both list are about what you would expect to see, except for RVP. Benteke's agent must be salivating at this point.

989. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP posted on February 19, 2013 at 05:40 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Where did you get that info? Just curious.

990. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on February 19, 2013 at 06:20 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I don't know anywhere that such tables are available for free. I'm paying for a subscription at Fantasy Football Scout. They have a nice "custom tables" app to play with the data. They have opta data from 2011-2012 and from the present season.

991. SuperGrover posted on February 19, 2013 at 06:40 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

RVP was better last season, but still nowhere near the top. Top 10 in 2011/12:

Lampard 9/11
Fletcher 8/11
Ba 9/15
Rooney 18/32
Yakubu 15/27
Hernandez 8/15
Cisse 8/16
Dzeko 10/20
Aguero 15/29
RVP 23/44

Bottom 5:

Kuyt 2/10
Carroll 3/13
Gervinho 3/13
Suarez 7/28
Crouch 4/16

992. Grunthos posted on February 19, 2013 at 06:50 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Benteke's agent must be salivating at this point.

If Arsene Wenger doesn't buy Benteke this summer, then you can stick a fork in Wenger's future, it's done. Benteke would need a year or two to finish developing, but Arsenal would then have a power forward who complements their style perfectly. He's a screamingly obviously perfect fit for their needs (an aerial threat, flair, composure) and Arsene's predelictions (young, Francophone), he won't come close to breaking Arsenal's wage scale, and Villa are in no position to refuse a power (20M+ pounds) offer even if they somehow avoid relegation.

993. Arnett Mead (Arjun) posted on February 19, 2013 at 06:52 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

6/11 Shane Long

This is quick interjection to agree and note that Shane Long is really, really good.

994. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on February 19, 2013 at 07:00 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

He's a screamingly obviously perfect fit for their needs

I mean, I agree, but this is true of half the clubs in the league. I say this in part because I think Benteke fits Tottenham's needs even more clearly than he fits Arsenal's. And he'd be perfect for Everton, he'd be great at Swansea or West Ham or Norwich. He's just really good at football, and lots of clubs need a striker, or need a better striker.

995. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on February 19, 2013 at 07:03 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

SG - And seeing Cisse, Aguero, and RVP all go from top of the league to bottom, while Suarez switches bottom to top, certainly shows the variability of these numbers.

996. Swedish Chef posted on February 19, 2013 at 07:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

What is the methodology for deciding what is a "big chance"?

EDIT: RVP has so many of them, maybe he does such a good job on marginal chances that they are deemed big chances by the observers. Like an outfielder who makes hard balls seem catchable, dragging down his percentage of plays made.

997. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance posted on February 19, 2013 at 07:20 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

What is the methodology for deciding what is a "big chance"?

It's like, he totally should have scored there man. Total objectivity.

998. Jeffo has an El Camino full of Rampage posted on February 19, 2013 at 07:21 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'm wondering MCOA, do you have Jelavic's numbers from last year? I mean, his horrible numbers for this year match up with what I've seen. Last year obviously he scored more, but I'd be interested in what his "conversion" rate was.

Looking at the numbers, and following up on #995, perhaps striker conversion rates of these chances have something in common with bullpen numbers from year to year? I would think the smaller number of chances/opportunities in the respective numbers passes the smell test, at least to my (no doubt limited) head.

Definintely an interesting stat to follow - I guess if it did normalize (obviously there can be many other factors involved) it would help to support the "form is temporary, class is permanent" line of thought that I hear so often on EPL broadcasts.

999. Arnett Mead (Arjun) posted on February 19, 2013 at 07:26 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

What is the methodology for deciding what is a "big chance"?

According to the file that Man City gave with their Opta data when they released that year for free, a big chance is "A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range." which I assume is the same for this, since it's also Opta.

1000. Swedish Chef posted on February 19, 2013 at 07:39 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

a big chance is "A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range."

They must have a pretty liberal definition of "very close range", otherwise I can't see how there can be that number of big chances.

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Wednesday, May 01, 2013

OT: NBA Monthly Thread - May 2013

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