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Page 3 of 8 pages
In theory, yes. FPH is right that you'd see significant sample size issues - the "-" sample for Gareth Bale is not going to be particularly useful - but I think it could be useful for some players and some problems.
I see you have started using Big Chances in your metrics as I am. When did this begin? I ask as I recall you were using SOT + hit WW previously. I am presuming you found the increased correlation using Big Chances to be quite appealing.
As for extrapolating via FFS, their numbers change all the time. They claim it's Opta and I see no reason to believe otherwise. You will see BC and CC numbers change for matches a month back on a fairly regular basis. Because of this, I run the full season numbers every single week rather than simply add on the current gameweek to the previous tally.
West Ham's win over Stoke has been underrated as a result, as it put them just about entirely clear from relegation.
I know it's subjective, but jeez. RB will surely vouch for the fact that the Shooty/Mattbert demographic felt very strongly that the Bale chance was "a subjectively classified situation where a player 'should' score, either one-on-one with the keeper or otherwise in excellent scoring position."
Steua Bucuresti are not exactly a lovable underdog.
(*)This is just a guess. Liverpool are at about 2.50 clear cut chances per game this season, and I'm guessing they're in the upper quartile of the EPL, although I have no data to confirm that.
Team BC Conv RateMUN 93 40 43%MCI 79 31 39%EVE 70 22 31%LIV 65 26 40%CHE 58 24 41%ARS 58 21 36%TOT 52 20 38%SWA 51 23 45%SOT 45 22 49%NEW 45 18 40%WBA 41 19 46%WIG 41 16 39%WHM 41 12 29%NOR 41 12 29%FUL 40 18 45%AVL 39 15 38%SUN 38 15 39%STO 37 12 32%QPR 33 11 33%RDG 30 16 53%
There was only contact because Bale dragged his foot to make sure there was some contact as he dove.
Yeah, at first I thought it was a harsh yellow but after seeing the replay I can understand it.
The attacking front four of Gylfi-Bale-Lennon behind Defoe looks insanely good.
Southampton Think Factory!
In practice, unless someone has a rich aunt, we don't have the data. I'm getting my numbers from Fantasy Football Scout, which already costs £15, but they only provide a subset of the Opta database, and it doesn't allow for in-game splits based on which players were on the pitch at the time. The full Opta database is like the old stats database from back in the day, it runs like ten grand or something.
We thought he was Superman, but he's Batman. Tim Howard has two fractured bones in his back.
This is a useful note, that a kind of flat-track bullying is entirely necessary to Premier League success. Everton have nice 2-3-2 record against top opponents, but a very mediocre 9-9-3 against the rest of the league. If you can't whomp on the mediocre and bad clubs, it doesn't matter how brilliantly you step up your game in Manchester.
Are the shots/big chances associated with game time in the data you have? If so, it might be possible to scrape ESPN game logs to generate the lineups at any given time. Not sure if it's worth the hassle, but if I manage to free up some time in the next month or so I could give it a try.
Benitez's substitutions would be more impressive were it not clear that Hazard and Mikel should have been playing from the beginning
On the second, though, the ESPN game logs do have SoT data, if I'm remembering correctly. If you could find differentiation in SoT conversion based on game situation, that would be a really useful finding. And the ESPN game logs would allow for a sort of +/- stat as well. It's almost enough to make me want to get my programming skills back and try it myself.
Gus Johnson asked Wright what he thinks of of Kagawa and Wright says that "he's a totally different player from Park." Really that's who you compare him to?
Sannino - Sep
Gasperini Sep - Feb
Malesani Feb - Mar
Sannino Mar -
May I humbly suggest that changing coaches may not be a universal cure for what ails football teams.
"A lot of the players we've approached have been put off by the results, but I'm urging anyone who's interested to think more about the opportunity we can give them. There'll never be a better chance for any aspiring player to compete in the [Women's Welsh] Premier League."
I suppose maybe Chelsea if you count Lukaku. I think I'd rather have Milan's 4 though even given the combustability. Other than that I can't think of one off the top of my head.
Milan look terrible.
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