*putting fingers in ears*

LA LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!!

Older than than Justin Bieber, not as old as Larry King.

I don't quite understand how Pujols not being a touted prospect is evidence that he's older than advertised.

No one from Latin America coming to the USA is the age claimed..You heard of "diploma mills"? Mexico on down, the dark factories of Sauron burn day and night putting out birth certificates and other necessary "official" documents.

I can just see future attempts at page hits now.

Jason: Let's debate.

Resolved: Coloreds do not have the mental acuity to be general managers.

Rob: I’m not sure who you would debate with!

Jason: Well, let’s kick it around, anyway. I’ll argue the affirmative, and you play Devil’s Advocate. (Literally, Satan’s lawyer!) Okay?

Rob: Sure.

I don't quite understand how Pujols not being a touted prospect is evidence that he's older than advertised.

The article explains it a little. Basically the thinking is Pujols wasn't a touted prospect despite great performance in HS and JuCo, because scouts thought they were watching a man competing against boys and not simply the best of his peers.

Birth CERTiFicT Where PUJOLS Whe

Can't we just saw him in half and count his rings?

Pujols became a US citizen in 2007. It's unlikely that he could do that with forged records. If he is older than he claims, then the Cardinals must know about it. And if that is the case, I'm not sure what to think. Do they have a responsibility to tell everyone how old he really is, or can he continue to lie about his age because that's not really any of our business? But, Rob makes the interesting point that the Cardinals hesitant offer towards Pujols this offseason may hint that they think he is older than 31.

Stephen Strasburg was surprisingly fully formed when he was drafted. Are we sure he's not 37?

Evan Longoria was also really good in his rookie season at "22".

Saying that somebody's age is false because they a) came out of nowhere to be really, really good and b) are of the "brown" persuasion and thus have falsified records is idiotic.

BREAKING NEWS: Sometimes, players come up that are mostly completely fully formed at 20. It happens, just like those guys who get drafted 599th overall, bounce around seven different systems, and finally put it together at 27.

Or, in other words, congratulations on the Blue Jays for locking up a 25-year-old Jose Bautista for five years.

Resolved: Coloreds do not have the mental acuity to be general managers.

Rob: I’m not sure who you would debate with!

Al Campanis?

Now I'm going to have to deny SBNation hits by boycotting VEB for a week.

Albert Pujols is as old as his tongue, and a little older than his teeth. I believe. I believe. I believe.

Now I'm going to have to deny SBNation hits by boycotting VEB for a week.

It's not VEB; it's SBNation's main general baseball offshoot that nobody reads.

Can't we just saw him in half and count his rings?

No need, he's got two.

Brannon makes a good point in the piece, that scouts may have discounted Pujols' performance in high school and junior college because they thought they were watching an older guy compete against boys. They thought, well, a 20-year-old ought to be able to destroy 16- and 17-year-old pitching, and therefore weren't impressed by it.

But that's not the same thing as saying Pujols is older than advertised; it's saying that more than a decade ago, some scouts may have thought Pujols was older than advertised. The fact that Pujols has gone on to destroy 24- and 25- and 27- and 32-year-old pitching would tend to reinforce the idea that he was the age he claimed, not contradict it.

Personally, I'd just ask Albert's first major league manager, Solly Hemus.

Well, if a reporter really were interested in the question enough to do his job it should be easy. Ask Pujols where he went to school, check and see where that was and how old he was. Find out who he went to school with, interview them. Etc. Confirm with church records and other public records if necessary or desired. This shouldn't be that hard.

I'd say there is much circumstantial evidence that Pujols is his stated age.

In how he was raised in the Dominican: the youngest in an extended family of 12.

In how he was documented in the U.S.: as a face in the crowd signing up for high school (not as a baseball whiz trying to impress a pro organization).

In how he developed: He would be an anomaly among baseball's historically great hitters if he were not ready to break through at age 20 or 21.

I'd say there is much circumstantial evidence that Pujols is his stated age.

In how he was raised in the Dominican: the youngest in an extended family of 12.

To play devil's advocate for a moment, how is that evidence? All it says is that there was someone of that age. It could just as easily be that one of the older brothers took the name of the youngest brother in order to seem younger.

In how he developed: He would be an anomaly among baseball's historically great hitters if he were not ready to break through at age 20 or 21.

Pujols is an anomaly no matter how you look at him. You don't get to be that great without being different.

To play devil's advocate for a moment, how is that evidence? All it says is that there was someone of that age. It could just as easily be that one of the older brothers took the name of the youngest brother in order to seem younger.

First, it was extended family; I don't know how many actual brothers are involved. Beyond that, it's just another circumstantial piece. What would be the reason for switching identities -- again Pujols was documented in the U.S. long before he was a baseball prospect -- and how would you keep a potentially valuable secret hushed up among that many people (including all those who knew that family)?

Saying that somebody's age is false because they a) came out of nowhere to be really, really good and b) are of the "brown" persuasion and thus have falsified records is idiotic.

There are more reasons to claim Pujols age is false than just those. He came from a country where many baseball players fudged their birth-date. This is not just paranoia, or rumor; there are lots of confirmed age-changes. He also didn't appear to change physically all that much, which is uncommon for his listed ages.

I'm really surprised to hear someone thinks he didn't change physically all that much—the tree-trunk Albert Pujols of today, looks, at least to me, much broader-shouldered than the Albert Pujols who started every day at third base in 2001, not to mention heavier. His swing's also significantly different.

So far, the evidence that's been presented to me that Albert Pujols is older than he says he is is this:

1. He's from a place where people have falsified their birth certificates.
2. His wife is older than he is.
3. He was really good when he was 21, and not widely scouted enough when he was 18.
4. Hair-loss-wise, he was pretty genetically unlucky, whether he came up at 21 or 23.
5. Dan LeBatard says he has this friend—in Canada, you don't know him—who totally knows that Albert Pujols is 33.

Albert Pujols might well be 33—his marriage is "suspicious", if you want to look at it like that, and he's from a place where it happens. But this isn't a case where we've gotten more evidence to that effect over the years, it's just a case in which the people who believe it, after shutting up for a few years, have gotten louder again. In the absence of some insider or hanger-on willing to leak the actual reasons they believe what they leave, columns like LeBatard's and thought exercises like this one are (unsurprisingly) pointless.

What would be the reason for switching identities -- again Pujols was documented in the U.S. long before he was a baseball prospect -- and how would you keep a potentially valuable secret hushed up among that many people (including all those who knew that family)?

The article attempts to address the motive.

Pujols was reportedly 16 when his family came to the United States. Had he been 17 (or 18, or 20), he would have been ineligible to attend high school (or play high school baseball). This seems like an obvious motive.

The article repeats the claims that Pujols' age discrepancy was "an open secret" in his high school area.

That said, I don't find the claim that Pujols is older than reported to be very persuasive. It's possible, but most of the evidence for that position is speculation.

There are more reasons to claim Pujols age is false than just those. He came from a country where many baseball players fudged their birth-date. This is not just paranoia, or rumor; there are lots of confirmed age-changes.

But the other Dominican age-falsifiers all fit the same pattern: they were teenage prospects who faked their ages and sometimes identities to make themselves more attractive to the MLB teams that sign teenage Dominicans as undrafted free agents. As #22 points out, Pujols came to the US and had his age pinned down well before he was identified as any kind of prospect. It seems implausible that he or his relatives would go to this trouble (and not inconsiderable risk) on the mere chance that young "Albert" might turn into a prospect later.

I say cut him in half and count the rings-only way to be sure.

I say cut him in half and count the ringzzz-only way to be sure.

Fixed that for you.

Albert Pujols might well be 33—his marriage is "suspicious", if you want to look at it like that, and he's from a place where it happens.

Unlike this, just ask Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Pujols was reportedly 16 when his family came to the United States. Had he been 17 (or 18, or 20), he would have been ineligible to attend high school (or play high school baseball).

Is this true? A kid coming to the U.S. at age 17 or 18 isn't allowed to enroll in a public high school? I'm no expert, but that doesn't sound right. Now, maybe he wouldn't be accepted at 20.

He's been lying about his name for years.

Julio Franco swears that Albert Pujols was not a teammate of his on the Bedrock Boulders.

#30 As I understand it, age is a serious issue in school athletics. I remember reading that some parents would have their kids failed. A really big issue in Texas high school football as I recall it.

There's no age restrictions on high school entry itself that I'm aware of.

Pujols was reportedly 16 when his family came to the United States. Had he been 17 (or 18, or 20), he would have been ineligible to attend high school (or play high school baseball).

Is this true? A kid coming to the U.S. at age 17 or 18 isn't allowed to enroll in a public high school? I'm no expert, but that doesn't sound right. Now, maybe he wouldn't be accepted at 20.

An 18 y.o. is probably allowed to enroll as a senior. Most schools kick you out when you turn 20, and you have to do a GED, IIRC.

He may have misstated his age for totally innocuous reasons. If he was 18, but behind American HS seniors, and his family wanted him to graduate HS, and maybe go to college, they may have claimed he was 16 to give him a better chance.

The article repeats the claims that Pujols' age discrepancy was "an open secret" in his high school area.

IIRC, it was also challenged many times in high school and Pujols was able to provide the necessary documentation.

A really big issue in Texas high school football as I recall it.

I don't know what the rule was in Pujols' case, but in Texas you cannot participate in interscholastic sports if you are 19 years old on Sept. 1 of the current year. Until recently, the age limit on entering high school was 20 years old.

I don't care how old he was, who were these moronic scouts who couldn't recognize the skill set of a guy who would put up a 170 OPS+ in the majors? Can we reopen that whole scouts vs. statheads debate?

By the way, say Albert really is 33 -- he has the highest age 23-33 OPS+ in the expansion era, beating out Bonds by a point. Among the guys with a 160 or better, they started at ages 21, 22, 20, 20 and 21 so Pujols is not unusual in that regard and all except for Bonds were pretty awesome at 21. Looking at how those 5 did from age 34+:

Bonds: 4500 PA, 214 OPS+
Thomas: 3200 PA, 131 OPS+
Robinson: 2900 PA, 145 OPS+
Aaron: 4700 PA, 150 OPS+
McCovey: 3400 PA, 123 OPS+

Pujols is DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED.

I don't care how old he was, who were these moronic scouts who couldn't recognize the skill set of a guy who would put up a 170 OPS+ in the majors? Can we reopen that whole scouts vs. statheads debate?

You think you could could tell a guy was a future MLB star by watching him hit against HS and JUCO pitching in western Missouri? It ain't that easy. Projecting hitting talent when your hitting prospect isn't facing real pitching has to be the hardest evaluation job in sports.

You don't know if he can hit a 90 mph fastball, because he doesn't see one. You don't know if he can hit good breaking stuff, because he doesn't see it. And you probably don't even get to see him swing that much because, as the only elite hitter in 100 miles, he probably gets walked half the time.

And if everyone says this 18 year old is actually 20? Then it just gets harder.

High draft picks who don't face good competition are almost always very athletic, five-tool guys, because it is easier to see a guy with speed and an arm and project them to play premium defensive positions and hope the bat is real too. It isn't as easy with a guy whose best tools are power and hit.

And the stats vs scouts thing is irrelevant, because it isn't like his HS or JUCO stats are going to tell you anything about his ability to hit major league pitching.

Yeah, letting Pujols fall so far was a major draft blunder on everyone's part, but that doesn't mean that a scout who saw Albert and didn't think he had a high ceiling was a moron. The fact that everyone missed on him is proof of that. Unless of course you actually believe that none of the dozens of baseball lifers that watched him know how to evaluate a baseball player, which would a pretty moronic thing to believe.

You think you could could tell a guy was a future MLB star by watching him hit against HS and JUCO pitching in western Missouri?

Doesn't have to be a future star to make him worth a fifth round pick in 1998. Doesn't have to be much of anything.

High draft picks who don't face good competition are almost always very athletic, five-tool guys, because it is easier to see a guy with speed and an arm and project them to play premium defensive positions and hope the bat is real too. It isn't as easy with a guy whose best tools are power and hit.

You just explained the thinking behind the Moneyball draft.

I had assumed that teams had figured out they needed to make some improvements, but after the amateur scouts missed Freese a number of times, I'm skeptical again.

You just explained the reason for the Moneyball draft.

And 4 of the 5 best and 7 of the 10 best first round picks (by WAR) from the "Moneyball draft" were high school kids.

The "draft college kids with stats!" thing is a tired, dead horse that has been beaten 1,000 times. Its been proven wrong over and over. No need to bring it up again.

I had assumed that teams had figured out they needed to make some improvements, but after the amateur scouts missed Freese a number of times, I'm skeptical again.

Do you really think its that easy? Do you actually expect it to be possible to create a fool-proof system for evaluating thousands of different amateur players ranging in age from 17 to 23 and properly ordering and selecting them?

Doesn't have to be a future star to make him worth a fifth round pick in 1998. Doesn't have to be much of anything.

Fine, if you want to be picayune I'll rephrase. "You think you could could tell a guy with an MLB future by watching him hit against HS and JUCO pitching in western Missouri?"

Same damn point.

I have it on good authority he was actually born in Kenya.

What Walt (#37) said.

PS - When Pujols had a rough time in June, I figured he was 33 after all. Then he turned it around, and now I'm comfortable with him being 31 again.

By the way, say Albert really is 33 -- he has the highest age 23-33 OPS+ in the expansion era, beating out Bonds by a point. Among the guys with a 160 or better, they started at ages 21, 22, 20, 20 and 21 so Pujols is not unusual in that regard and all except for Bonds were pretty awesome at 21. Looking at how those 5 did from age 34+:

Isn't the point not what he has done, but how the age #### would change projections for him in his next, MLB record setting contract? Of the guys on your list, if you rule out Bonds (by reasons of chemistry), and assume a 10 year contract for Pujols you get the following breakdown:

Aaron and McCovey played until they were 42 and Robinson and Thomas played until they were 40. They all dwindled in effectiveness as they approached 40 to varying degrees, so it really looks to me that arguing about Pujols' age is a proxy argument about just how many seasons the team that signs him is going to have to eat at $30M (if we go by his own demands) in order to sign him.

I'm sure it would be insulting and so maybe a non-starter, but a team that was truly concerned could, quietly, insert language that stipulated the team could void the contract, perhaps even extracting a penalty, if proof surfaced that Pujols had misrepresented his age. If this were kept out of the media, Pujols need not lose face and, if he is the age he says he is (I think he is), he would have nothing to worry about in terms of losing money.

I'm sure he'll get paid handsomely without this language, so he probably wouldn't go for it.

#44 Color me doubtful that the league office would approve a contract with that kind of language in it.

On the other hand, I wonder about the possibility of a lawsuit by the team signing Pujols if such proof did in fact surface (color me doubtful -- this kind of secret is tough to keep).

I'm sure he'll get paid handsomely without this language, so he probably wouldn't go for it.

If I'm Pujols and I can get a team to throw in an extra few million in exhcange for a void clause I know for a fact is never going to be exercised I'd say, yes please!

(Of course this assumes he's not lying, which I'm going to stick with until there's some kind of evidence to doubt him)

I've talked to an agent who represented a lot of DR players and changing their identities to make themselves appear younger was ubiquitous. From our conversations I know there's at least one guy still going by his phony identity in MLB and I'm sure he can't be the only one.

IIRC, it was also challenged many times in high school and Pujols was able to provide the necessary documentation.

If he was using his younger brother's identity, that would be pathetically easy.

How the hell could you distinguish two brothers based on birth records?

The Moneyball draft philosophy doesn't pick college players because they will necessarily be better major leaguers than high school players, but because they are more accurately evaulated.

If I'm Pujols and I can get a team to throw in an extra few million in exhcange for a void clause I know for a fact is never going to be exercised I'd say, yes please!

I'm not sure a team needs to add a void clause if they find that Pujols has been faking his name and/or age. Amateur signing bonuses from the Dominican are often voided after identity and age falsification is revealed, without the presence (to my knowledge) of any specific clause permitting this. Now, I realize a free agent contract would be different, since the player is a union member but (note: not a lawyer) isn't entering into a contract with fraudulent information sufficient grounds for a contract to be voided anyway, on contract law grounds?

Lawyers?