#44 Color me doubtful that the league office would approve a contract with that kind of language in it.

Color me doubtful that this type of language isn't standard in league contracts.

The Moneyball draft philosophy doesn't pick college players because they will necessarily be better major leaguers than high school players, but because they are more accurately evaulated.

Accurate evaluation and better major leaguers are the same goal. You don't select someone who you are sure will not be a good major leaguer simply because you think he has been more accurately evaluated.

How the hell could you distinguish two brothers based on birth records?

The Feds seem to sort it out often enough don't they? How many times has a Dominican teenager showed up to spring training with a new name and a different, older age?

The Feds seem to sort it out often enough don't they? How many times has a Dominican teenager showed up to spring training with a new name and a different, older age?

Since the last names are changing, I'm guessing the fake ID wasn't his brother. Non-siblings would be easier to sort out; different addresses, schools, etc.

But, if you had two brothers who were 2-3 years apart, baptized in the same Church, always lived in the same house, went to the same schools, etc., I can't imagine what documentary evidence there would be before age 16-18 to sort them out.

Even a driver's license or passport might not be enough if they look similar, or the pictures were old, e.g. a passport issued at age 5 isn't going to help you distinguish a 16 y.o. and an 18 y.o.

Again, not saying Pujols did or didn't switch IDs, just that he could have, and it would be very hard to tell.

I have to agree with Snapper, not that I think Pujols is older than his listed age, but that it is likely nearly impossible to distinguish two brothers from the same household that are within a year or two in age.

Since the last names are changing, I'm guessing the fake ID wasn't his brother. Non-siblings would be easier to sort out; different addresses, schools, etc.

TONS of Dominicans have siblings with different last names, and I'm sure many of the guys who have taken their cousin's birth certificate went to the same school and church as their cousin.

I have to agree with Snapper, not that I think Pujols is older than his listed age, but that it is likely nearly impossible to distinguish two brothers from the same household that are within a year or two in age.

You guys are making me wonder how these guys are ever busted to begin with.

You guys are making me wonder how these guys are ever busted to begin with.

same way anyone else is busted, loose lips, mistakes etc.

Pujols became a US citizen in 2007. It's unlikely that he could do that with forged records.

No one cares about the above? I'm not sure how this debate exists unless you believe the government is THAT incompetent.

No one cares about the above? I'm not sure how this debate exists unless you believe the government is THAT incompetent.

Yeah. Pujols getting citizenship makes me think he is who he says he is.

What the hell is this, are there really that many Birthers looking for a new cause around here?

That Pujols was willing to risk so much on the citizenship process makes it awfully hard for me to put him on a bluff.

Pujols became a US citizen in 2007. It's unlikely that he could do that with forged records.

No one cares about the above? I'm not sure how this debate exists unless you believe the government is THAT incompetent.

I'm probably in the minority but, yes, I do think the government is that incompetent. Especially ICE.


That Pujols was willing to risk so much on the citizenship process makes it awfully hard for me to put him on a bluff.

However, I also agree with this. It's one thing for me to sit in my office and say I think they're incompetent. It would be quite another to risk millions of dollars and much humiliation on that opinion.

What the hell is this, are there really that many Birthers looking for a new cause around here?

What the heck does this have to do with birthers? Nothing.

Dominican baseball players using birth certificates that are not their own to play baseball, and often not getting caught for quite some time, is pretty common, factually supported occurrence. You don't need to believe some Glen Beck fairy tale to realize that it happens all the time.

Now, I don't think Pujols is faking it, but bringing up birthers is a pretty irrelevant, stupid comparison.

What the heck does this have to do with birthers? Nothing.

Why not? If the fact that Pujols is Dominican is evidence that he faked his age, the fact that people are questioning his origins should be perfectly fine evidence that they are Birthers. I'm just playing by the standards of this thread.

31 versus 33.... let's just compromise, say 32, and move on.

Doesn't seem like it would be hard to track down one of those guys that knew about the "open secret" back from the high school days.

You think you could could tell a guy was a future MLB star by watching him hit against HS and JUCO pitching in western Missouri? It ain't that easy.

1. Sheesh, dude, learn to take a joke.

2. No I don't think it's easy which is why I think scouts are damn near useless. If all they can do is identify the Griffeys and ARODs with any accuracy, they're not much use.

You are claiming it is perfectly legitimate that professional baseball talent evaluators -- whose job is to assess the potential of high school and JUCO players -- could not tell the difference between one of the top 10 hitters of all-time and possibly the best hitter of the last 40 years and a regular 13th round pick.

You don't need a scout to find the 5-tool guys, I can do that. All you need is a radar gun to find the guys who throw 93+. The scouts are supposed to help you distinguish among all those guys.

I'm not suggesting they should have known Pujols would be such a great hitter but that it should have been "obvious" that he had an excellent chance to be an ML-quality hitter. Given the low return on later round draft choices, a scout should have been able to at least tout him for a 2nd/3rd/4th round pick. (Other "recent" 13th round picks of note -- Juan Pierre, Brad Wilkerson, Carl Pavano, Gary Matthews Jr.)

Accurate evaluation and better major leaguers are the same goal.

Not exactly. Accuracy incorporates variance/risk. Standard low risk/return vs. high risk/return.

Isn't the point not what he has done, but how the age #### would change projections for him in his next, MLB record setting contract?

Sure. If Pujols will be 32 and you give him a 10-year contract, you're not the brightest GM on the block. If he's really 34, and you know it, and you give him a 10-year contract, you're an idiot.

Or no ... the point is that people around here keep talking about the iron law of mid-30s decline as if Pujols will be putting up 115 OPS+ soon and I keep pointing out it doesn't hold for great hitters. (Playing time decline might) Even if he is 2 years older than he claims, we should expect him to continue to hit at an elite level until about age 40.

By the way, minor correction. If really aged 23-33, Pujols would be 2nd to Bonds in the expansion era. My earlier number was Pujols OPS+ from 23-31 (forgot to do a separate search). Pujols is #1 in OPS+ age 21-31 in the expansion era.

2. No I don't think it's easy which is why I think scouts are damn near useless. If all they can do is identify the Griffeys and ARODs with any accuracy, they're not much use.

Then you will have to explain how most of the talents are identified and taken in the first round if scouts bring nothing to the table.

Yeah, I gotta disagree with Walt a bit here. I'm not involved in the game, but scouts can see if a "prospect" has correctable errors - say path to the ball in the OF, as opposed to non-correctable errors - say lack of foot speed. There are so many wrinkles on why a guy is good or bad in a certain area, it's what makes the job so tough. It's the wrinkles that push a guy up/down a few spots or rounds.

I'm a stats guy, but if I was a GM I'd try to employ a large and seasoned scouting department.

I'm probably in the minority but, yes, I do think the government is that incompetent. Especially ICE.

Concur. Immigration has shown no ability to stop anyone from doing anything.

Even a driver's license or passport might not be enough if they look similar, or the pictures were old, e.g. a passport issued at age 5 isn't going to help you distinguish a 16 y.o. and an 18 y.o.

There's also a socioeconomic snag with some players. Example: no photos of Mariano Rivera as a child exist, because his family couldn't afford a camera.

There's also a socioeconomic snag with some players. Example: no photos of Mariano Rivera as a child exist, because his family couldn't afford a camera.

That, and the daguerrotype wasn't invented until the 1840s.

But I thought all the Dominicans proven to have lied about their age did it to immediately get signed by a scout? Are there any that lied about their age in order to emigrate to the US, play high school ball, and then get drafted? Since they want to avoid the draft, I bet it'd be hard to find a single example.

Pujols is Dominican, but he took a path no one else took.

But I thought all the Dominicans proven to have lied about their age did it to immediately get signed by a scout? Are there any that lied about their age in order to emigrate to the US, play high school ball, and then get drafted? Since they want to avoid the draft, I bet it'd be hard to find a single example.

Pujols is Dominican, but he took a path no one else took.

Maybe it wasn't all about baseball. What if he just wanted to go to HS? If he was 18, he'd have <2 years to graduate.

Call yourself 16, and you've got more time.

But I thought all the Dominicans proven to have lied about their age did it to immediately get signed by a scout? Are there any that lied about their age in order to emigrate to the US, play high school ball, and then get drafted? Since they want to avoid the draft, I bet it'd be hard to find a single example.

Danny Almonte? Kinda sorta?

What the heck does this have to do with birthers? Nothing.

well, birthers by definition are ####### retards...therefore coming up with a new retarded theory is perfectly in line with their thinking.

I'm a stats guy, but if I was a GM I'd try to employ a large and seasoned scouting department.

If you were a gm, contrary to the moneyball movie or book, you would be an idiot not to employ a large and seasoned scouting department.

Scouts are important no matter what some overhype machine tries to state, the argument is about their evaluation techniques that focus's on how they fit in jeans. Nobody with a lick of sense is saying, or will ever say scouts are unimportant.