Saturday, May 18, 2013
SoE (Megdal): It’s Time to Finally Believe in the Orioles
(www.sportsonearth.com)
Primer’s own Mr. Megdal takes a break from his contractually obligated ball-busting of the Wilpons to point out that Serious You Guys, the Orioles really are a pretty solid team now:
Read More...BALTIMORE—A pair of diametrically opposed views exists about the Baltimore Orioles, 2012’s winner of 93 games and a playoff spot, off to another strong start in 2013.
Outside the Baltimore area, skeptics abound. Sure, the Orioles won 93 games, but their Pythagorean record—a measure of expected wins and losses based ...
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1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy posted on December 30, 2011 at 09:02 PM # hit 0 | hit 0Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Vladimir Guerrero .311 .368 .531 2506 9566 1480 2978 540 49 489 1669 784 1120 186 133
Matusz and Tillman certainly didn't pan out as planned, though I guess Matusz gets one more year.
Also, it's interesting, but as much #### that gets talked about Palmeiro not having a peak, I don't see where Vlad's blows his away... if Vlad ends up with the career line that Zips projects, it would be pretty clearly an inferior career to Palmeiro.
Top Ten Seasons WAR
Palmeiro VS. Guerrero:
7.4........7.4
6.2........7.1
6.0........6.5
5.5........5.5
4.9........5.4
4.2........5.3
4.2........4.8
4.1........3.9
3.8........3.8
3.6........3.5
I'm not trying to bring Vlad down or anything, it's just very interesting to me as my gut told me that Vlad was a much more dynamic player than Palmeiro at his peak... and it's a lot closer that I would have guessed.
That doesn't bode well.
Wieters gets a 105, career is 100, had a 113 last year, he'll be 26, I would've guessed a 110 myself...
Markakis at 107? He was at 109 last year, 120 the year before, 117 for his career, I'd guessed 112...
Hardy at 104, coming off a 117, he's at 99 for his career, 2 straight sub 100 years leading into 2011, 104 looks reasonable
Jones at 106, 114 last year, 108 the year before, he'll be 26, I would guess, oh, 112 or so.
Reynolds at 108, 110 for career, 4 year sequence of 95, 127, 97, 119... yeah splitting the difference between his last two year is the best way to go- and that gets you to 108...
The thing is no one's projection looks "high" to me, either right on or low... I would LOVE to see Wieters put up a 140 just to see BPro do another 180 turn on him.
hmmm I'm pretty sure that Montero is going to outhit Matt...
I'm also pretty sure Wieters is going to be catching most of not all the next 5 years and Montero... will not.
I'm guessing that Wieters is going to put up 15-20 WAR over the next 5, as a 1b/dh type he's going to need to OPS+ 130 or so to get up there...
interesting question
Guerrero: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th
Palmeiro: 3rd, 6th, 9th, 9th
Will Clark: 1st, 3rd, 8th
Dave Parker: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th
Top 10 oWAR (to account for possible unreliability of defensive stats):
Guerrero: 3rd, 7th
Palmeiro: 7th, 8th, 10th
Will Clark: 1st, 3rd, 7th, 10th, 10th
Dave Parker: 1st, 3rd
Vladdy Finger guy7.6 7.2
7.0 6.6
6.5 6.4
6.3 5.9
5.5 5.5
5.2 4.9
4.9 4.8
3.8 4.6
3.4 4.3
3.2 4.0
53.4 54.2
Top 15 fWAR
A-Rod 79.7Bonds 76.0
A Jones 65.0
C Jones 58.7
Albert 57.2
Rolen 56.0
Helton 54.9
Abreu 54.5
Vlad 53.4
Giles 52.2
Jeter 52.0
Edmonds 49.0
Kent 46.2
Manny 46.1
Beltran 45.6
Top 15 bWAR 98-07
Rk Player WAR/pos1 Barry Bonds 77.7
2 Alex Rodriguez 76.2
3 Albert Pujols 57.8
4 Andruw Jones 56.8
5 Chipper Jones 55.4
6 Vladimir Guerrero 53.2
7 Derek Jeter 52.8
8 Todd Helton 52.8
9 Bobby Abreu 50.8
10 Jim Edmonds 50.5
11 Scott Rolen 49.6
12 Jason Giambi 48.2
13 Manny Ramirez 45.7
14 Jeff Kent 43.6
15 Carlos Beltran 43.5
Note: Giles at 39.7 bWAR, ranks 22nd.
I think one of you has the wrong Montero. The question asked about Miguel, you seem to be talking about Jesus.
The D-Backs C will be 28, has averaged a 114 OPS+ over the last 3 years and 7.2 WAR. Chone has rated him as poor, average and good on defense the last three years :-) so let's call it average. As far as I know there's no talk of moving him to 1B.
Wieters will be 26, may have had his breakout as a hitter, appears good defensively and has 7.5 WAR over the last 3 years.
Probably advantage Wieters but it's close. As to Jesus Montero, I leave that to the crystal ball crowd. :-)
careful now, they might revoke your libertarian membership card. :-)
Miguel Montero had a sudden defensive awakening, at least with regards to his throwing game, during the middle of 2011. He all of a sudden stopped making throwing errors, and started throwing out 40% of would be base stealers. FWIW, the newer pitch framing metrics rank him quite highly too. He has made a lot of strides the last year or two. I think he is at least average, and likely good now.
You look at those projections, and are worried about the offense?!? They have NO pitching, and about 2 starters, who are above average defensively.
They might have a shot at 900 runs allowed. In this run environment. Unbelievable.
We're supposed to have cards?
Fancy Pants, I actually never looked at the pitching projections. Now that I have... yes, it's not good.
My son was going to take me for my birthday in August but that was the month of 20" of rain and the game was rained out. I saw the penultimate game in Memorial Stadium but haven't been to the "new" stadium yet. Go figure.
As Banta wrote, it's not easy to imagine someone paying Vlad to be pretty bad for three more years. Though if he's willing to play for a couple mil a year and never gets much below league average during any season, I suppose GMs have done stranger things than pay poor DHs with illustrious careers to hang around forever.
BBRef doesn't have him listed as under contract for 2012--has he signed yet?
Tickets are dirt cheap, you can bring in food and non-alcoholic drinks, of which there is plenty just outside the stadium, and I haven't found a bad seat yet. Pick a non-Red Sox/Yankees game, preferably at night in the middle of summer, get seats in the Eutaw St Bleachers or "splurge" for box seats, grab some burgers, dogs, and drinks at a vendor across the street, and root for the O's. They'll probably lose, but it'll be a good time and cheaper than dinner and a movie.
It's really too bad they don't have a couple stars, especially out of the crop that might have been (Jones, Wieters). Of course it would be more fun to watch, and I doubt ticket prices would go up much since Baltimore is first and foremost a football town.
This team probably has less upside, though.
I'm trying to think of other parks with as much urban fun to be had a short walk from the gates, though, and the only one I can come up with is Wrigley. But I haven't been to all of them. Other nominees?
Oh, and Dan erred: it's Della Notte. Chiapparelli's is also very good.
It appears that we won't have the worst pitching in the league.
With Ben Grieve, Eric Hinske, Hank Blalock, and Eric Chavez on hold.
And yes, Obrycki's is closed. I think they are moving.
As for Vlad-I see him as a for sure HoF. Less because of the stats than the story. He's a fun guy to watch,never ever had a hint of steroids, has a good reputation within the game, when he was young could actually throw, field and run a bit,went 30/30 twice, had a nice peak with the Angels,a fairly large market team, has a great nickname and was one of the legendary bad ball hitters ever. I mean, who among us hasn't enjoyed watching Vlad swinging at anything near the plate (and often getting hard hits) and golfing homers over the last 15 years?
Right now Vlad is rated #42 all time, between Johnny Bench and Frank Thomas, at BBR ELO, which I know isn't a good statistical tool, but I think it gives a good perception of how the public (Rather inaccurately) views him.
He's in like Flynn.
I think the only thing that could hold him up would be the coming logjam.
Closed forever on November 5. The spice was unique, no Old Bay. I liked the original restaurant better than the new place.
Think I've been to LP Steamers. Used to go to Baltimore at least once a year to catch a game and eat steamed crabs until I had those darn kids. And all the restaurants I went to closed.
Also... the narrow edit box seems to be a step backwards.
Perfect team for Reynolds, who has a shot at breaking Reggie's record if he can keep his job.
Of course it could be Thome's record by than.
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