BBTF.org/m/orioles : Ibanez homers in the ninth and 12th to stun the O’s in Game 3

Saturday, May 18, 2013

SoE (Megdal): It’s Time to Finally Believe in the Orioles

(www.sportsonearth.com)

posted 3 days ago by Esoteric throws a 'hard slider' to baltimore, orioles | 26 comment(s)

Primer’s own Mr. Megdal takes a break from his contractually obligated ball-busting of the Wilpons to point out that Serious You Guys, the Orioles really are a pretty solid team now:

BALTIMORE—A pair of diametrically opposed views exists about the Baltimore Orioles, 2012’s winner of 93 games and a playoff spot, off to another strong start in 2013.

Outside the Baltimore area, skeptics abound. Sure, the Orioles won 93 games, but their Pythagorean record—a measure of expected wins and losses based ...

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1. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) posted on October 11, 2012 at 12:09 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Leon.

############# Leon.

LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT MY MOTHER!

2. The Yankee Clapper posted on October 11, 2012 at 12:29 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Not sure anything could have made a better game. Maybe if it had been against Boston.

3. NJ in NY posted on October 11, 2012 at 12:33 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

It didn't FEEL like a great game, but what a ####### ending. Better than my first Yankee game where, IIRC, Brosius hit a walk off 3 run homer down the LF line, but not as "holy ####### ####\" as the Jeter faceplant game, despite the stakes.

4. Ray (RDP)

posted on October 11, 2012 at 12:34 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Orioles lose yet another game that was molded in their style and geared towards their "skill" in winning one-run or extra-innings games, or games they lead in the late innings.

Is it time yet to talk about how their problem is offense, and with a subpar offense it's difficult to win games?

5. Mayor Blomberg posted on October 11, 2012 at 12:49 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Which team are you talking about, Ray?

It's not like the first three Yankee pitchers didn't have very good years.

6. Gamingboy posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:01 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

########. ########.

7. Gamingboy posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:08 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Although, come to think of it, it's good that the Yankees are around, as it allows me direct my rage easily. If the Orioles just lost that game to, say, Oakland, there'd be no easy target to send out my rage.

8. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:09 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I hate the Yankees like any self-respecting A's fan but, man, Ibanez was ####### amazing.

9. Best Regards, L.M. posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:12 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Well, now it's the second-best finish of the night.

10. PreservedFish posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:15 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Heroes of the day:

1. Oakland A's
2. Baby walrus
3. Ibanez

11. puck posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:16 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Well, now it's the second-best finish of the night.

I don't know, a zombie walkoff is a big deal.

12. Yastrzemski in left. posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:17 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Pinch hit for who?

13. Biff, highly-regarded young guy posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:29 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I don't think I've said this enough yet, so...

Raul ####### Ibanez. ####### hell.

14. Dr. Vaux posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:33 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

It also annoys me that whenever the Tigers are in the playoffs, they play a team that makes most of the sabermetric community root against them. It's not like the Tigers have been some dominant team that's boringly there in October every year.

15. Dr. Vaux posted on October 11, 2012 at 01:34 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

And congratulations to the A's and their fans, who I certainly have nothing against in any way.

16. Srul Itza At Home posted on October 11, 2012 at 02:05 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Three pitches, two swings, two home runs.

17. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn)

posted on October 11, 2012 at 02:05 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Wow. What a ####### night of baseball.

18. Walks Clog Up the Bases posted on October 11, 2012 at 02:25 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

It also annoys me that whenever the Tigers are in the playoffs, they play a team that makes most of the sabermetric community root against them. It's not like the Tigers have been some dominant team that's boringly there in October every year.

I don't think this is necessarily true. You've got the A's twice and who else? Texas? I think it's sort of cancelled out by the two series against the Yankees and, to some extent, the 2006 WS.

19. Dr. Vaux posted on October 11, 2012 at 02:43 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Maybe. It seemed like a lot of saberites wanted Texas to win, because they were the best team and were supposed to win the World Series. But it's true that they're always preferred against the Yankees and against 83-win NL champions.

20. birdlives is one crazy ninja posted on October 11, 2012 at 02:44 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Is it time yet to talk about how their problem is offense, and with a subpar offense it's difficult to win games?

The O's have been HR reliant all season. That story normally gets swept under the rug because JJ normally slams the door.

21. RollingWave posted on October 11, 2012 at 03:00 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

The O's have been HR reliant all season. That story normally gets swept under the rug because JJ normally slams the door.

It's hard to argue that the O's been more HR reliant than the Yankees all year. of course the Yankees' issue is rarely ever sweeped under the rug even when they are doing well.

22. Walt Davis posted on October 11, 2012 at 03:09 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Ibanez stepped in for Rodriguez

Apparently Girardi's #### works in the playoffs.

23. RollingWave posted on October 11, 2012 at 03:19 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

@22

Don't worry, he'll pull an effective 90 pitch Hughes tomorrow in the 6th for Boone Logan against a weak hitting lefty and predictablly gets blasted.

24. phatj posted on October 11, 2012 at 06:08 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Nice to see A-Rod waiting on the top step.

25. RMc and His Roster of Rubbish posted on October 11, 2012 at 06:49 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Will nothing prevent the unremitting evil of a Cardinals-Yankees World Series?

Apocalypse, indeed.

26. zonk posted on October 11, 2012 at 08:38 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Will nothing prevent the unremitting evil of a Cardinals-Yankees World Series?

Apocalypse, indeed.

I will ####### burn baseball to the ground before I allow that to transpire.

27. TVerik posted on October 11, 2012 at 08:39 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'll double Walt's #22. This may have been the single greatest managerial move ever; it's at least in the top few of one-game strategy things. If Chavez weren't already in the game, the PH opportunity probably would have gone to him (there's also the matter of whether A-Rod was playing third or DHing; if he was playing third, I don't think he comes out of the game). If Rod had made three loud outs instead of three terrible ones, no manager would have pinch-hit for him. Even as it was, it is moderately gutsy to pinch-hit for him in that situation (I don't think I would have, for instance). And the move turned out unbelievably, spectacularly well.

28. Tom Nawrocki posted on October 11, 2012 at 08:46 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Ibanez is about the baldest ballplayer I've ever seen. Even though he shaves his head, there was enough stubble on his dome last night to see that he's ordinarily Peter Boyle-ish.

29. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

posted on October 11, 2012 at 08:47 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'll double Walt's #22. This may have been the single greatest managerial move ever;

Pinch-hitting Ibanez for A-Rod in that spot was one of those moves that was so screamingly obvious that I have a hard time seeing it as any act of genius. A tough right handed pitcher, a left handed slugger with a hot hand vs. a right handed hitter in a complete batting funk---I'd have been screaming for Girardi's head if he hadn't done it, even if Ibanez had struck out on three pitches.

30. TVerik posted on October 11, 2012 at 08:57 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

"complete batting funk", yes. But if you have one of the top ten home run hitters of all time on your team and he comes up in the ninth trailing by a run, pulling that trigger had to have been hard.

I'd bet a mortgage payment today that both of them - A-Rod and Ibanez - are in the lineup.

31. Smiling Joe Hesketh posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:01 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

What an awful pitch by Johnson. Just laid it down Broadway. He's got to be aware of Ibanez' power; Ibanez' just did the same thing against Bailey last week in the 9th. Keep the ####### ball away from him for crissakes.

Johnson's picked the wrong time to implode: 51 saves in the regular season, a 10.38 ERA in this series. Nice timing jackass.

32. DKDC posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:03 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Is it time yet to talk about how their problem is offense, and with a subpar offense it's difficult to win games?

It's also difficult to win games when your CF nonchalants a routine flyball into an RBI triple.

I'll focus on the positives that will be forgotten because of Adam's flub and Baldy's meatballs:

That was an incredible outing by Gonzalez. 8 Ks and no BBs and what should have been 7 shutout innings. He did everything that was asked of him and more.

The two rookies hitting home runs is pretty cool. The young O's do not seem intimindated by the big stage.

The O's hit a lot of line drives that found gloves. That line drive double play in the 10th was a killer, but there were a lot of good at bats that showed up as outs in the box score. The same thing happened to the Yankees in game two, so I guess this was payback.

Now it's time to put the hurt on Hughes, and solve Sabathia on Friday. It's not going to be easy, but crazier things have happened (see Raul Ibanez).

33. The Id of SugarBear Blanks

posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:04 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

"complete batting funk", yes. But if you have one of the top ten home run hitters of all time on your team and he comes up in the ninth trailing by a run, pulling that trigger had to have been hard.

I know it's heresy around here, but A-Rod basically can't hit in the postseason; even the outlier of 2009 is overrated. There's no use waiting around for him to get going when he isn't going to get going.

34. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:07 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Is it time yet to talk about how their problem is offense, and with a subpar offense it's difficult to win games?

The Orioles have a pretty good offense. Not great, but above average. Their bench was terrible this year, dragging their overall team hitting numbers down, but that matters very little in the postseason. 2B is a black hole, but the rest of the starting lineup is average to above average.

The Orioles have pretty good hitting and pretty good pitching. They look like an 85-88 win team if they played a full season with the current roster. I don't think there's anything particularly weird about the team they have right now that suggests they should absolutely get destroyed by the Yankees, but I don't think there's a talent level there that makes them meaningful favorites against anyone else remaining in the playoffs.

35. bobm posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:10 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

[21]

BAL 2012: 337 RBI on 214 HR; 677 total RBI - 49.8%
NYY 2012: 389 RBI on 245 HR; 774 total RBI - 50.3%

36. bobm posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:23 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

2012, HR = 0

                        
Rk    Tm #Matching  W  L
1    NYY        31  7 24
2    BAL        44 13 31
3    OAK        46 16 30
4    CHW        47 11 36
5    TEX        47 18 29
6    TOR        49 14 35
7    WSN        54 21 33
8    MIL        55 13 42
9    TBR        55 16 39
10   LAA        56 24 32
11   ARI        57 17 40
12   BOS        58 14 44
13   DET        61 25 36
14   SEA        61 21 40
15   PHI        63 20 43
16   PIT        63 23 40
17   COL        65 18 47
18   ATL        67 26 41
19   CIN        67 27 40
20   HOU        69 10 59
21   NYM        69 21 48
22   STL        69 25 44
23   CLE        70 20 50
24   CHC        72 20 52
25   MIN        73 21 52
26   MIA        75 22 53
27   KCR        76 28 48
28   LAD        81 30 51
29   SDP        81 31 50
30   SFG        91 45 46

37. bobm posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:27 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

2012, HR >= 1

                        
Rk    Tm #Matching  W  L
1    NYY       131 88 43
                        
2    BAL       118 80 38
                        
3    OAK       116 78 38
                        
4    TEX       115 75 40
5    CHW       115 74 41
                        
6    TOR       113 59 54
                        
7    WSN       108 77 31
                        
8    TBR       107 74 33
9    MIL       107 70 37
                        
10   LAA       106 65 41
                        
11   ARI       105 64 41
                        
12   BOS       104 55 49
                        
13   SEA       101 54 47
14   DET       101 63 38
                        
15   PIT        99 56 43
16   PHI        99 61 38
                        
17   COL        97 46 51
                        
18   CIN        95 70 25
19   ATL        95 68 27
                        
20   STL        93 63 30
21   NYM        93 53 40
22   HOU        93 45 48
                        
23   CLE        92 48 44
                        
24   CHC        90 41 49
                        
25   MIN        89 45 44
Rk    Tm #Matching  W  L
                        
26   MIA        87 47 40
                        
27   KCR        86 44 42
                        
28   SDP        81 45 36
29   LAD        81 56 25
                        
30   SFG        71 49 22

38. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:30 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Four more games today! This week is awesome.

39. YR Misses Reggie Bars posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:31 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Johnson's picked the wrong time to implode

I don't see it that way.

40. GregD posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:35 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Pinch-hitting Ibanez for A-Rod in that spot was one of those moves that was so screamingly obvious that I have a hard time seeing it as any act of genius. A tough right handed pitcher, a left handed slugger with a hot hand vs. a right handed hitter in a complete batting funk---I'd have been screaming for Girardi's head if he hadn't done it, even if Ibanez had struck out on three pitches.

Leave aside the baseball side of it. As a management issue, if Ibanez strikes out and the Yankees lose the game and series, Girardi's got to be fired, right? If you're going to alienate/humiliate one of your marquee guys, you're risking your job in a way that you aren't if you just let the game play out. So I don't know if it was genius, but I do think it showed major cojones.

41. BDC

posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:36 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

but … but … I thought it was always a bad idea to disrespect Alex Rodriguez by batting him 8th, pinch-hitting for him, making fun of his centaur painting … :)

42. bunyon posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:37 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Does JJ ordinarily look good? I've seen him pitch maybe 5 games this year and he looks like a perfectly mediocre relief pitcher.

43. DKDC posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:45 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Does JJ ordinarily look good? I've seen him pitch maybe 5 games this year and he looks like a perfectly mediocre relief pitcher.

It’s pretty hard to look bad when you face 153 batters in high leverage situations and allow a batting line of .179/.243/.221.

He’s a sinkerballer, so when he’s not getting sink or he leaves the ball up, he’s going to get hit. That hasn’t happened often this year.

44. Liver of blaspheming 'zop posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:50 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Johnson isn't that good and got lucky this year. Sinkerballer with shitty periphs and a .250 BABIP. He's basically Chien-Mien Wang, but pitching as a reliver. Which is fine and all that, but doesn't do much as a closer when the "good" options are essentially unhittable.

45. DL from MN posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:52 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Thanks for 36/37 - that's some good context. The two most HR dependent offenses in baseball. Good to see the Orioles getting back to pitching, defense and the 3 run HR.

46. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 11, 2012 at 09:59 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Johnson isn't that good and got lucky this year. Sinkerballer with shitty periphs and a .250 BABIP.

Jim Johnson's FIP this season is 3.25. His component numbers are not elite, but "shitty" is simply wrong as a description.

47. Liver of blaspheming 'zop posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:08 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Jim Johnson's FIP this season is 3.25. His component numbers are not elite, but "shitty" is simply wrong as a description.

IMO, a league average pitcher (including all starters and relievers) put into a 1-inning only, no-runners on when entering the game role, would probably end up with a mid 3.00s' ERA pitching at Camden Yards. I see Johnson as marginally better than a league average pitcher occupying his role. Given that closers tend to be above league average pitchers or have specialized closer skills, I think that he's a shitty closer. He's not a shitty reliver in general, he's just meh.

48. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:15 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I was shocked Arrieta and S. Johnson were left off the roster, but that was nothing compared to Alex Rodriguez being PH for by Raul Ibanez. Raul Ibanez!

49. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:17 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

IMO, a league average pitcher (including all starters and relievers) put into a 1-inning only, no-runners on when entering the game role, would probably end up with a mid 3.00s' ERA pitching at Camden Yards.

Ok. I think that's crazy talk.

-Camden is a neutral park
-Most pitchers are bad, the league average is produced by massively overweighting good pitchers because they pitch more innings. If you're including "all starters and relievers", your average is much worse than league average.
-The 20th-30th best reliever in baseball can be defined as "shitty" if you like, but it's a terribly non-standard use of language.

50. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora posted on October 11, 2012 at 10:28 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

The Orioles have a pretty good offense. Not great, but above average.

Their Team OPS is 7th, OPS+ is 97, they are 10th in runs

You say the O is actually pretty good becasue it's due to a weak bench, and that doesn't count in the playoffs cause those guys won't be playing- so their everyday lineup is good

Median starter OPS+ (2012 AL)
C: 104 (Wieters is 7th at 107- this is not a usual year for Al catchers)
1B: 110 (Mark Reynolds at 107 is slightly below, 110 is LOW, median starting 1B is usually 118-120)
2B: 79 (Unusually low, but Andino is well south of that anyway)
SS: 82.5 (JJ just misses under)
3B: 104 (Betemit/Machado are under)
LF: 99 (really unusually low, Nate is over
CF: 110 (unusually high, Jones is well over)
RF: 114.5 (typical, Markakis is healthily over)
DH: 121 (typical, and Davis nailed it)

If you aggregate it, median starting OF is at 107, The Oriole's OF is over
median starting 1B/DH is 116, the Orioles are about there
The Orioles starters are collectively below average at C/2B/SS/3B, not by a huge amount

overall, the Orioles starting 9 is probably slightly above average- but below average FOR A PLAYOFF TEAM...

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Saturday, May 18, 2013

SoE (Megdal): It’s Time to Finally Believe in the Orioles

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