Ok. I think that's crazy talk.

Look, lets just take the two teams in this series, k?

In a closer role (i.e., pitcher can air it out for ~35 pitches and has "prepped" for that approach), I'd rather have Sabathia, Kuroda, Soriano, Robertson, Hughes, Pettitte, Chen, Hammel, maybe this Gonzalez character, O'Day (maybe splitting the inning with Logan for the platoon advantage). There are maybe 13 pitchers who will get serious play in this series, and Johnson isn't in the top half of them in a one inning context (I actually think his stuff looks like it would play better as a starter).

Perhaps the one advantage of Johnson is that you need to string hits together off of him to get runs - the 2.6BB/9 for his career and 0.5 HR/9 is pretty tasty - but then you put him on the mound at Yankee Stadium with the stupid RF fence and the Yankees run out essentially nothing but LH and SH power bats . . . he's not King a ton of guys and it doesn't take much for one of the usual suspects to plink one over the fence.

He's a shitty closer.

In a closer role (i.e., pitcher can air it out for ~35 pitches and has "prepped" for that approach), I'd rather have Sabathia, Kuroda, Soriano, Robertson, Hughes, Pettitte, Chen, Hammel, maybe this Gonzalez character, O'Day (maybe splitting the inning with Logan for the platoon advantage).

So, in other words, he's the third best reliever between two playoff rosters.

You can define every reliever but the 15 best in the world as shitty, but that doesn't mean everyone else has to understand the concept that way.

Pinch-hitting Ibanez for A-Rod in that spot was one of those moves that was so screamingly obvious that I have a hard time seeing it as any act of genius. A tough right handed pitcher, a left handed slugger with a hot hand vs. a right handed hitter in a complete batting funk---I'd have been screaming for Girardi's head if he hadn't done it, even if Ibanez had struck out on three pitches.

Leave aside the baseball side of it. As a management issue, if Ibanez strikes out and the Yankees lose the game and series, Girardi's got to be fired, right?

Are you crazy? On what grounds? That the player with the biggest contract "has" to be the choice even when every other factor screams otherwise?

If you're going to alienate/humiliate one of your marquee guys, you're risking your job in a way that you aren't if you just let the game play out.

With all due respect, I don't think that a single Yankee fan would have questioned Girardi's move in hindsight, no matter what the outcome. In case you hadn't noticed it, that's not the A-Rod of 2009 who's been out there lately, and Ibanez has repeatedly demonstrated his capabilities in situations like last night's. He's now come through in similar situations five times in the last three weeks, every one of them still fresh in every Yankee fan's memory. Sometimes you have to forget about all the other factors and just go with the hot hand.

So I don't know if it was genius, but I do think it showed major cojones.

Only if Steinbrenner were channeling his inner DiPerna and discounting every recent event as a mere matter of randomness.

--------------------------------------------

I'd bet a mortgage payment today that both of them - A-Rod and Ibanez - are in the lineup.

And of course they both should be. A-Rod's still capable of snapping out of it, even if in last night's specific situation Ibanez was the only serious choice.

You can define every reliever but the 15 best in the world as shitty, but that doesn't mean everyone else has to understand the concept that way.

Since closers are supposed to be the best relievers, wouldn't, by definition, the 25th best reliever in the world (who's probably also worse than ~75 starters, if they were put in that role) be a shitty closer?

I know it's heresy around here, but A-Rod basically can't hit in the postseason; even the outlier of 2009 is overrated. There's no use waiting around for him to get going when he isn't going to get going.

If the Yankees are going to win the World Series this year, it'll be with a productive A-Rod in the middle of the order.

If he hits under .200, the Yankees will lose.

I mostly agree with Jolly's #53. But I still don't think that Ibanez was the "only serious choice" in that situation. The risk-averse choice was to let Rod strike out. Very few people would have questioned him on that. And, like I said upstairs, the fact that Rod was DHing led to a lot more flexibility - if he were playing 3rd, it would have been a much more complicated choice. Which begs the question whether Girardi thought there was a possibility of this type of situation when he filled out the pregame lineup.

Since closers are supposed to be the best relievers, wouldn't, by definition, the 25th best reliever in the world (who's probably also worse than ~75 starters, if they were put in that role) be a shitty closer?

No. He would be a below average closer. "Shitty" means bad, really bad. Not below average.

(This seems like a common theme in discussions of the Orioles. The fact that the Orioles are merely mildly above average, with a bunch of below average players in important roles, seems to lead people to describe them as terrible. They're pretty good, which is not the same thing as terrible, and some of their players are below average, which is not the same thing as shitty.)

No. He would be a below average closer. "Shitty" means bad, really bad. Not below average.

Fine. I'll stipulate to this and concede my rhetorical exagerration. I'll add that Johnson is a particularly bad fit against the Yankees and their park, just like Kim in 2001, so the effect is worse than his intrinsic "true talent"

With all due respect, I don't think that a single Yankee fan would have questioned Girardi's move in hindsight, no matter what the outcome. In case you hadn't noticed it, that's not the A-Rod of 2009 who's been out there lately, and Ibanez has repeatedly demonstrated his capabilities in situations like last night's. He's now come through in similar situations five times in the last three weeks, every one of them still fresh in every Yankee fan's memory. Sometimes you have to forget about all the other factors and just go with the hot hand.

I can't see any sabermetric grounds to criticize it. Ibanez has been about an .800 OPS hitter against righties the last 3 years. A-Rod was pretty bad vs. righties this season, though he was better against righties the previous 2 seasons. While we're supposed to ignore hot hand/slumps as not being predictive, it is probable that A-Rod, not having hit for much power since his return from injury, is not at 100% health.

I'm not sure which is more shocking, that Girardi would pinch hit for A-Rod, or that the analysis would back up, or at least not condemn such a move. Yeah, A-Rod is 36 and not the player he once was, but Raul is 4 years older. Who could have guessed 10 years ago that when A-Rod loses a bit Ibanez would still be in the league, let alone a viable alternative?

Now a really gutsy move by Girardi would have been to pinch hit with Raul for Jeter in the 8th against O'Day. Jeter also has a huge platoon split, and was not 100% as he was hobbling earlier in the game and left the game right after that for defensive purposes. But Jeter is the hot hand, so that move won't be made.

I don't know a lot about the off-the-field side of Ibanez, but to me, as a neutral party, his postgame interviews presented him as easily likable.

The way these guys are swinging, I'd rather have Jeter vs. O'Day than A-Rod vs. Johson. Jeter has recently hit line drives, and even had a couple of hits in this game (though he gets an assist from Adam Jones on that one).

Through three games, Adam Jones is having a terrible, terrible series. As in the worst single performance on both sides of the ball that I can think of offhand in a short series.

Jeter also has a huge platoon split, and was not 100% as he was hobbling earlier in the game and left the game right after that for defensive purposes.

Jeter left strictly because of the injury, right? The Yankees were losing when he got pulled, and you don't make a defensive substitution in a game you're losing.

I mostly agree with Jolly's #53. But I still don't think that Ibanez was the "only serious choice" in that situation. The risk-averse choice was to let Rod strike out. Very few people would have questioned him on that.

I know I sure as hell would have. Letting A-Rod bat in that situation last night would have been the equivalent of watching your best friend drown in a pool while you sat there saying "just let me finish this cigarette."

And, like I said upstairs, the fact that Rod was DHing led to a lot more flexibility - if he were playing 3rd, it would have been a much more complicated choice.

Now that part I'll agree with, although given the game situation he'd still have had to do what he did.

Which begs the question whether Girardi thought there was a possibility of this type of situation when he filled out the pregame lineup.

Now that would have qualified as a stroke of genius that would've rated a nod from Casey Stengel or Tony LaRussa. I'd like to think that Girardi had that scenario in mind when he made out the lineup, but I tend to doubt that he did.

Jeter left strictly because of the injury, right? The Yankees were losing when he got pulled, and you don't make a defensive substitution in a game you're losing.

I was actually listening to the radio at that point, and John Sterling made the point that "Jeter's spot will definitely not come up again tonight!" Sure enough, it did.

I was thinking in the shower this morning that there's a curious hitter parallel to the power pitcher "losing" his stuff.

Nearly all power pitchers lose their velocity after awhile. When this happens, they almost always lose effectiveness for a while. Some population of pitchers then reinvent themselves with new pitches. Some never do, and once the fastball is gone they quickly fade away.

You can see the same effect with hitters. The bat speed starts to go, and all of a sudden, the fastballs inside are too fast to hit. Some guys seem to find a way to rejigger their mechanics to squeeze a little more speed out of their swing - I'm thinking Ortiz, Jeter, and can cheat time for a few more seasons. Some guys can't.

But the common thread for all of these is that it's very hard - if not impossible - to make the changes necessary to compensate for a loss of velocity or a loss of bat speed on the fly. Took Jeter the better part of a year; Ortiz too. Plenty of pitchers scuffle about for a season or so until it clicks and they have a renassaince. I think its very possible A-Rod comes back next year hitting again, but I don't think he can fix what ails him - the inability to hit a well-placed fastball - until the off season.

Now that would have qualified as a stroke of genius that would've rated a nod from Casey Stengel or Tony LaRussa. I'd like to think that Girardi had that scenario in mind when he made out the lineup, but I tend to doubt that he did.

We'll never know this for sure, because Girardi certainly wouldn't share this if this were true. And even if he did, a lot of people would think that he's retroactively trying to look smart.

That having been said, is it more likely that Joe said "Good thing I DHed a struggling hitter, leaving me with lots of pinch-hitting options" or "Let me randomly put Chavez in the field today. Oh, look!"

What a performance by this bald 40 year old guy. I wanted to go to bed but I had to stay up and watch, even though the wrong side won. Good job, Raul; let's go, Birds, take it to game 5.

Through three games, Adam Jones is having a terrible, terrible series. As in the worst single performance on both sides of the ball that I can think of offhand in a short series

I blame the bubble gum.

Also, Adam got a little better last couple years not chasing every outside slider thrown to him; but he is back in chase mode again.

Grudging credit to Girardi for having the stones to ph for A-Rod.

Was Ibanez ever young-looking? My recollection is that he kind of looked like a cancer patient right when he came up.

Most impressive thing about Ibanez is that after the game he was still able to get down to the St. James Theatre to pick up his role in "The King and I" revival for Act II.

Rodriguez after the game: "To be honest, I don't know how I would have reacted to that ten years ago."

There were platitudes before and after it. That's much more of an honest quote than I'd have expected from the man.

I don't know a lot about the off-the-field side of Ibanez, but to me, as a neutral party, his postgame interviews presented him as easily likable.

Among players, Raul is one of the most universally liked guys in the league. A union exec described him to me as "one of the nicest people you will ever meet."

Girardi did both the right and difficult thing in that situation. This will be one of the first of many reality checks for AROD as he gets older and how he reacts to it in this series and next season will foreshadow what the twilight of his career will look like.

now that would have qualified as a stroke of genius that would've rated a nod from Casey Stengel or Tony LaRussa. I'd like to think that Girardi had that scenario in mind when he made out the lineup, but I tend to doubt that he did.

In the post game press conference, Girardi said this first came to his mind in the 7th inning when it was shaping up that AROD could come up against Johnson in a one run game in the 9th.

Rodriguez after the game: "To be honest, I don't know how I would have reacted to that ten years ago."

There were platitudes before and after it. That's much more of an honest quote than I'd have expected from the man.

Yeah, but then 10 years ago there wouldn't have been the need for Ibanez.

Among players, Raul is one of the most universally liked guys in the league. A union exec described him to me as "one of the nicest people you will ever meet."

If you remember, the Phils offered arbitration to Ibanez this winter after a handshake deal that he would decline (getting the team a sandwich pick). He had no incentive to do this except out of appreciation for his former club. Not that I think he deserves a ton of credit for declining (turning down at least $8 million or so) after agreeing to do so, but it was a classy move to help out a team that was cutting him loose.

1. Oakland A's
2. Baby walrus
3. Ibanez

Indeed, the Baby Walrus probably saved many people from losing it last night.

Ibanez also hit a clutch homer in that extra inning game against the A's so whatever happens going forward, I would walk Ibanez.

Re AROd:

I thought the decision to PH Ibanez, while totally out of character for Girardi, while fueling the talk radio flames, while putting the coda on the act of turning ARod into a circus act, was nevertheless the right one for the team. At least at that moment. Each game in a series is crucial, particularly in a five-game series, particularly in a swing game... And so I can't fault Girardi.

I'm not a fan of Girardi's, and I _am_ a fan of ARod's, and I agree that Girardi acted uncharacteristically and would never do something like this to Jeter - has never done it to Jeter, including over the last couple of years prior to 2012 where Jeter couldn't hit righties but was sucking up 9th inning outs against them in playoff games anyway - but I can't fault Girardi for suddenly morphing into a stathead and trying to win a game. I wish he and all managers would do more of it. The problem is not that he did this; the problem is that he doesn't do it more often.

Yes, Ibanez brings no other skills to the table, yes, the 3B would now be out of the game, but this is the bottom of the 9th, and if you don't score all of that is meaningless anyway.

----

As to Andy, he seems to be basing his analysis heavily on "omigawwd ARod can't hit in the playoffs - except for when he did," and I reject that analysis. But there is a rational case to be made that age/injuries have left ARod as no longer the hitter that he once was, especially against righties, to the point where this move is utterly defensible.

Of course, Girardi should have PH for Martin earlier, using this logic.

Did Hank Aaron get pinch-hit for at the end? Ruth?

I'm not a fan of Girardi's, and I _am_ a fan of ARod's, and I agree that Girardi acted uncharacteristically and would never do something like this to Jeter - has never done it to Jeter, including over the last couple of years prior to 2012 where Jeter couldn't hit righties but was sucking up 9th inning outs against them in playoff games anyway - but I can't fault Girardi for suddenly morphing into a stathead and trying to win a game. I wish he and all managers would do more of it. The problem is not that he did this; the problem is that he doesn't do it more often.

The "analysis" of this on sports radio and on the various TV networks is deeply stupid, but there's importance to it: There is downside to Girardi's move. Soft, unquantifiable downside.

Girardi knew this right away. Taking A-Rod out right there was the right strategic move; in foresight and hindsight both. But these are confident, prideful, and somewhat emotionally vulnerable men. This is the first time in twenty years or so that Rod was not the best offensive option in a bit spot, and Girardi made the choice to let the world know that he thought so as well. This is as big a move as Davey Johnson taking Cal Ripken off short years ago.

Will this have some unmeasurable effects on Rod's brain? Even positive ones? I have no idea, and I absolutely don't trust the armchair psychologists who pretend to know.

This was not batting ARod 9th, as Torre did, scapegoating him, in a season where ARod was a dangerous hitter. This was Girardi trying to make a move to win a game.

The fact that he would never PH for Jeter is interesting, but ultimately irrelevant to the ARod move.

More poignant than pinch-hitting, Willie Mays was frequently caddied for in CF late in games in '73, and there's this particularly sad note from a game on 1 July 1973: Tom Seaver pinch runs for Willie Mays

This was not batting ARod 9th, as Torre did, scapegoating him, in a season where ARod was a dangerous hitter. This was Girardi trying to make a move to win a game.

It was mostly Girardi succumbing to the inevitable conclusion that A-Rod sucks lemons in the postseason.(*) Many of us came to this conclusion years ago. Girardi never would have dreamed of doing this in the regular season.

(*) A-Rod's "dangerousness" by the CoPa games in 2006 was entirely illusory.

More poignant than pinch-hitting, Willie Mays was frequently caddied for in CF late in games in '73, and there's this particularly sad note from a game on 1 July 1973: Tom Seaver pinch runs for Willie Mays

That is crazy!

Leave aside the baseball side of it. As a management issue, if Ibanez strikes out and the Yankees lose the game and series, Girardi's got to be fired, right?

Are you crazy? On what grounds? That the player with the biggest contract "has" to be the choice even when every other factor screams otherwise?

I could well be crazy but I'm not evaluating whether it was the right move but whether it was the safe move. And many managers do of course, and naturally, prioritize safety since it's their paychecks on the line.

So Ibanez strikes out. A-Rod rips Girardi in the media. Sports radio goes nuts (the fact that the same people had been ragging on A-Rod wouldn't limit them since they're literally never consistent.) Fans--classic frontrunners--boo like crazy.

Steinbrenners hope to keep attendance up next year without spending money to get under the threshold. Fire Girardi to make a point that you don't accept mediocrity. Hire someone with hometown recognition for a short-term contract. Go through a cheap down year next year with the new manager taking the blame, and then reload for 2014. Obviously no one knows, but I would be surprised if the risk didn't weigh heavily on Girardi's mind at the time.

It was mostly Girardi succumbing to the inevitable conclusion that A-Rod sucks lemons in the postseason.(*)

I agree with that, actually, as a statement as to what drove Girardi to make a decision that was defensible on stathead grounds.

I of course disagree that "the postseason" makes ARod a worse hitter.

As to Andy, he seems to be basing his analysis heavily on "omigawwd ARod can't hit in the playoffs - except for when he did," and I reject that analysis.

My "analysis" pertained to the situation that existed in the ninth inning of last night's game. I wasn't calling for A-Rod to be benched or demoted in the lineup prior to the game, nor would I say that today.

But there is a rational case to be made that age/injuries have left ARod as no longer the hitter that he once was, especially against righties, to the point where this move is utterly defensible.

I'm not sure why you think I disagree with any of that.

------------------------------------------------------

Leave aside the baseball side of it. As a management issue, if Ibanez strikes out and the Yankees lose the game and series, Girardi's got to be fired, right?

Are you crazy? On what grounds? That the player with the biggest contract "has" to be the choice even when every other factor screams otherwise?

I could well be crazy but I'm not evaluating whether it was the right move but whether it was the safe move. And many managers do of course, and naturally, prioritize safety since it's their paychecks on the line.

I agree with that as a general proposition, but not always.

So Ibanez strikes out.

Entirely possible.

A-Rod rips Girardi in the media.

Not remotely possible.

Sports radio goes nuts (the fact that the same people had been ragging on A-Rod wouldn't limit them since they're literally never consistent.) Fans--classic frontrunners--boo like crazy.

Barely possible, maybe 1%. The Yankee fan base can be criticized for a "what have you done for me lately?" attitude, but that wouldn't have kicked in here, not with the memory of Ibanez's recent heroics so fresh in their minds. As I noted, and as every Yankee fans knows, as he was coming up to bat in the ninth inning last night, Ibanez had just produced three of the more dramatic clutch hits in recent Yankee history only in the past two weeks alone. Meanwhile A-Rod's recent history, particularly against righthanders, was a disaster.

Steinbrenners hope to keep attendance up next year without spending money to get under the threshold. Fire Girardi to make a point that you don't accept mediocrity. Hire someone with hometown recognition for a short-term contract. Go through a cheap down year next year with the new manager taking the blame, and then reload for 2014. Obviously no one knows, but I would be surprised if the risk didn't weigh heavily on Girardi's mind at the time.

The Steinbrenners have changed managers exactly once since 1996. This isn't The Boss of the pre-Torre era we're dealing with today, even if non-Yankee fans seem to forget this.

A-Rod rips Girardi in the media.

Not remotely possible.

Agree, in a literal way. I could absolutely see him say something like "It was the manager's decision", which would feed many of the same flames.

It isn't "This is not the way we do things around here", but it's in that neighborhood.

Did Hank Aaron get pinch-hit for at the end? Ruth?

I was wondering about that this morning. Has a player of A-Rod's stature ever been pinch hit for in such a situation? I mean, we can quibble about how good he was this year but it's not like a .793 OPS/112 OPS+ is poor. This isn't Mays in '73 or Ruth in '35.

Barely possible, maybe 1%

Frankly, I think even that's over-stating the possibility. Far more likely that the mooks that call into NY sports radio would be ripping Girardi for not doing it sooner.

You all have a greater belief in the consistency of sports-talk radio than I do. I would still bet on the joy of second-guessing. It was good enough for Sal Maglie...

[91] Yes, but my way combines both the joy of second guessing AND the natural antipathy that the kind of Yankees fans who call into sports radio feel towards Rodriguez.

=)

I admit that is a powerful combo!