The AL East should be fascinating this year. Almost any outcome is possible.

“I think we can be as good or better next year,” Duquette said.

I actually think Duquette is right about this. But I also think a team slightly better than the 2012 Orioles is very unlikely to win 93 games in 2013.

“I think we can be as good or better next year,” Duquette said. “Because we’re returning just about the entire ballclub. Our players are at an age where they should continue to improve. Plus we have another year of experience, along with pennant race and playoff experience.”

That's really the best thing to hang his hat on --

Wieters, Jones, Davis, and Chen are are all 26 - and I agree that this is a fine core, all of whom are at an age where they ought to at least hold serve... You've also got Tillman and Machado. It's really a pretty decent core -- but the problem is twofold:

1) One of those guys - maybe two - really need to take a BIG leap forward and

2) Counting on the supporting cast to hold serve isn't a good bet.

Still, the 2012 Orioles weren't the movie Major League come to life -- it's not like it was some collection of never-will-be's and has-beens who just put together a fine season... There's a legitimate core of talent here - at the right age - that had been disappointing for a while, and just suddenly picked the same year to become pretty darn good.

The team that finished the 2012 season was also very different from the team that got really lucky early on. IIRC, they outscored their opponents by a healthy amount from August 1 on and the team was excellent overall. Of course it's unlikely that Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman will pitch as well as they did over those last couple months, and lot of those runs came from an insane hot streak from Reynolds, but I think this is fundamentally a sound team, with a decent offense, a decent rotation, good defense, and a good bullpen. I think 85-88 wins is a fair expectation.

I loved Duquette when he was GM of the Expos, and I'm thrilled to see him get another chance, and turn a job that no-one else wanted into a 93 win season and making the playoffs. I hope he manages to surprise everyone agin this year.